In a very short while, the Rangers and the Astros will kick off a crucial four-game series, with the AL West up for grabs. There will be three more meetings between the teams after this series is complete, so any mistakes can be made up for, but this race is coming down to the wire. It’s currently the closest race of the divisions, and while the Rangers are already close at 1.5 games back, they were literally inches away from an even smaller deficit before the Astros rallied past the Angels on Sunday. The Astros know they can lose their position. The Rangers know it’s theirs for the taking.

In a lot of ways, this isn’t what people expected. Even just several weeks ago, by which point we’d come to believe in the Astros, the Rangers didn’t look like a threat. After the games on July 31, the Astros were up two games on the Angels, and seven games on the Rangers. The Rangers’ odds of winning the division were a hair below 2%. Now they’re a little above 22%, gaining about a game on the Astros a week. Since the beginning of August, the Rangers have gone 25-15, second-best in the AL. Since the same point, the Astros have gone 19-20, sandwiched between the Yankees and the Rays. What’s happened to cause the Astros to lose much of their advantage?

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The Nationals aren’t mathematically dead, and there are several reasons for why they’re so far behind the Mets, but if you want to say the Nationals’ season died one day, you could point to the game they lost to the Mets after leading 7-1. Here’s that win expectancy graph, and you can see that, for Washington, it topped out at 99.2%. That game was absolutely devastating. That game all but sealed the dueling narratives. It can also get worse.

Source: FanGraphs

Sunday, Astros, Angels. The lead was three, not six. It was a game between first and third place, not first and second. But the Angels’ win expectancy topped out at 99.7%. They had the Astros down to their last strike. The Angels find themselves now behind 4.5 games, not 2.5. And the rally itself was almost inconceivable, even independent of the context. This would’ve been a dramatic conclusion in a game between the Braves and an area college. Let’s watch the meat of the top of the ninth inning. Some of you already know everything that happened, but those who don’t really need to.

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Thursday night, the Cardinals got thumped by the Reds, 11-0. Bad game. One of those games you just toss out and move on from. You might wonder what this has to do with clutch.

Conveniently, Thursday night, the Cardinals found themselves in basically zero clutch situations. For something a little more representative, consider Wednesday’s game, against the Cubs. Nine outs into the game, the Cardinals trailed 3-1. From there, they yielded no more runs; from there, they scored three more, all in the bottom of the eighth. In that way, the Cardinals won a game in which they were out-hit 11-5. They won a game in which they were out-OPSed .650-.526.

The Cardinals haven’t made a habit of that, exactly, but it gets at the idea. As I write this, the Cardinals have the best record in baseball, by a handful of games. Odds are pretty good they’ll reach or clear 100 wins. It makes sense that they also have the best run differential in the National League. Yet, interestingly, we can also consider OPS differential. By that measure, the Cardinals rank fifth in baseball, between the Pirates and the Yankees. That’s still good, obviously, but there’s something going on in between those numbers and the actual team record. Something that’s made the Cardinals look even stronger.

That something is clutch performance. The Cardinals have been clutch, far more clutch than any other team. It’s admittedly a difficult thing to quantify. And, admittedly, there are multiple definitions of “clutch.” The definition being used here is putting on a particularly good performance in pressure situations. You could think of the Cardinals as having had wonderful timing. It’s lifted their record above what you’d expect.

Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.

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One of my favorite parts of the trade deadline happened right at the deadline itself. As the deadline passed, a Mariners writer or two tweeted out that no trades had been made. Then, a few minutes later, it was announced that J.A. Happ had been traded to the Pirates. It happened suddenly, and it arguably only happened because A.J. Burnett had gotten injured. There were never any Happ rumors to speak of; the MLB Trade Rumors archive doesn’t show anything. Happ was essentially unwanted and mediocre. I forgot who he was traded for, so I looked it up, and I’ve forgotten again. Deadline additions don’t get much less sexy than this.

But sometimes the present doesn’t give a crap about the past. Since getting traded to the Blue Jays, David Price has been worth 1.8 WAR. Makes sense; he’s an ace. Since getting traded to the Pirates, J.A. Happ has been worth 1.4 WAR. Makes less sense. All the other traded starters have done worse. Johnny Cueto’s done worse. Cole Hamels has done worse. Scott Kazmir has done worse. They’ve all done worse. I just came across an article a few minutes ago suggesting that maybe Happ should start the Pirates’ wild-card game. That’s insane, but it still speaks to how shocking this has been. Happ has pitched like a valuable pitcher, after the Pirates got him for basically nothing. Baseball’ll get ya.

So you know what the next section is. The next section is: what? What is this? What do the Pirates have J.A. Happ doing? I’ll do my best to try to explain.

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About a month ago, I asked whether Carlos Correa might’ve already become baseball’s best shortstop. Correa got off to a wonderful beginning, with positive signs all over, while there were indications that Troy Tulowitzki was down a step or two. Nothing now has changed about my evaluation of Correa, as I still think he’s fantastic, but if you just look at the numbers, Correa might not even be baseball’s best shortstop rookie. In basically identical playing time, Correa finds himself a hair behind Francisco Lindor in WAR. In the second half alone, Lindor’s posted a WAR of 3.0, tied with Bryce Harper and fourth overall among position players. The defense, as expected, has been there. Lindor is a gifted defensive shortstop. But he’s also been hitting, after a cold first few weeks. This was less expected.

It’s a reason why the Indians are hanging around the fringes of the wild-card race. Not that they’re likely to get there, but they are mathematically alive, with an improved roster that deserves better than its standing. Lindor is at the middle of the Indians’ little surge, and given his emergence, it’s time we take a look at his abilities. In a short amount of time, the 21-year-old has flashed his whole skillset.

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I’ve written about a few changes like this lately. I wrote about Ryan Goins, whose hot streak coincided with a new unwillingness to swing the bat. I wrote about Joey Votto, whose Bonds-esque second half has come with greater discipline and a preference for very particular strikes. In Goins’ case, the analysis was done in response to improved performance. In Votto’s case, the analysis was done in response to improved performance. There’s nothing quite like that here, no red-hot offensive tear commanding broader attention. Maybe that’s still to come, but I think the observation is interesting enough regardless of everything else.

Evan Gattis is patient now. He’s not Joey Votto-patient. He’s not Matt Carpenter-patient. His patience is relative, but compared to what he’s been, this is a whole different type of hitter. As always, you have to wonder how much of this is actually nothing. Sometimes the numbers we look at aren’t reflective of any deeper truths. But this isn’t based on outcome data. This isn’t based on the usual things that bounce around. This is about swinging. Hitters who like to swing will swing; hitters who like to wait will wait. Gattis has been a swinger. Now Gattis is more of a waiter. This is interesting because of how unexpected it has been.

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The Nationals’ season isn’t quite on life support, but there’s been a bad accident, and the family’s been notified. The situation appears to be dire, and while Tuesday brought its own fresh horrors, that wasn’t the day that slaughtered the dream. It’s the most recent event, the currently most upsetting event, but the Nationals weren’t even supposed to be in this situation in the first place. They’ve had problems for weeks, for months, and now they’re about out of time to save themselves and move on to the tournament. The Mets have simply done too much. The Nationals have simply done too little.

The story would be interesting if it were any division race. What makes this one extra interesting is that it’s this division race. The Nationals were expected to run away with the NL East. The Phillies, as assumed, have been bad. The Braves, as assumed, have been bad. The Marlins had the look of being mediocre. The Mets had the look of a fringe contender. The Nationals had the look of a champion. These are our preseason odds. The Nationals were given an 86% chance to win the division. They were projected to clear the Mets by 13 games. If the Nationals won out, and the Mets lost out, the Nationals would clear the Mets by 18 games. This was supposed to be a relative cakewalk. It’s been more of a…nailwalk? I don’t know. It’s been bad, is the point.

So: why? How has this happened? Obviously, the Mets have quite a bit to do with it, but this post is to focus on the Nationals. Where did this go wrong?

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Let’s get right to the point. It’s not often that I use OPS instead of wOBA or wRC+, but sometimes OPS is just easier, like when you’re relying on the Baseball-Reference Play Index. OPS is the inferior statistic, but the correlation is very strong, so, with that out of the way, here are this year’s worst-hitting catchers, by team:

• Twins, .591 OPS
• Marlins, .580
• Mariners, .466

I’m not one of those people who minds when commenters make note of typos. I actually appreciate it — I hate little mistakes, and I want to have them corrected. Some of you might feel like the above includes a typo, specifically with regard to the “4” in the Mariners number. I assure you, that number is very much accurate. If the 4 were a 5, the Mariners would still be in last. The 4 is a 4. This is only going to get worse.

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Owen just wrote about the fact that Joey Votto is having a fantastic season on a team that isn’t fantastic. That’s not exactly what Votto would prefer — on some level, every player has to be selfish, but Votto, like everyone, wants to be on a winner. One benefit of playing for a winner: winning is fun. Another benefit of playing for a winner: winners get attention. Votto is having an MVP-caliber year, but because of the team built around him, he’s putting his season together in almost total silence, which is greatly unfortunate. His overall numbers are outstanding. And his more recent numbers are almost inconceivable.

Maybe you’ve seen some of these; maybe you haven’t. If you saw some of these a few weeks ago, it’s not like Votto has slowed down. I’ll concede that splitting at the All-Star break is mostly arbitrary, but if we do that, then what’s revealed is nuts. It’s not just the categories that Votto’s leading. It’s the extent by which he’s in front. Over the last several weeks, Votto’s posted the highest walk rate in baseball, by eight percentage points. He’s posted the highest wOBA in baseball, by 69 points. He’s posted the highest OBP in baseball, by 101 points. Since about the time the All-Star Game rolled around, we’ve seen a player go the full Votto. The output is bewildering. We can see what’s happened. What’s driven what’s been happening?

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