Author Archive

Inside Pitches, and the Batters Who Swung at Them

Here, for maybe the first time in the history of the Internet, is a post inspired by Hernan Perez. Hernan Perez is a professional baseball player, currently for the Detroit Tigers. He has batted a few times, and is 22. Hasn’t been real good in the minors. Might be getting better. A few years ago he was a teammate of Wondy De Los Santos, who is also a professional baseball player, or was. Odds are, you don’t know a lot about Perez, if you’ve even heard of him, but this post isn’t about him. It only starts with him.

The Worst Of The Best is taking a little break, until next week, when we’ll reflect on the entire first half. That’ll be fun, but in the meantime, sometimes people still tip me off on Twitter about particularly wild pitches or swings. Earlier this week, I got a tip about a swing by Hernan Perez. Later, I got another tip from another person about another swing by Hernan Perez, in the same game. That was enough to drive my curiosity, and sure enough, Perez took two really bad swings in a game against the White Sox. One was at a breaking ball in the dirt. One was at a fastball, here:

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Word Going Around on Yasiel Puig

Maybe you haven’t heard quite as much about Yasiel Puig lately. I don’t know, I don’t know who you read and what you watch. But it’s hard for a player to sustain that level of coverage and interest, as Puig seemed to be absolutely everywhere for his first few weeks. Justifiably, of course. But Tuesday was a big day for Puig, in a sense — against the Diamondbacks, he drew two unintentional walks, for the first time in his young career. Previously, he had just four. And in case you thought Puig was slowing down, this month is new but he’s slugged .500. He hasn’t spent a day in the majors with a three-digit OPS. Puig is still excelling, and the Dodgers are still succeeding around him.

About those two walks, though. Walks aren’t as sexy as singles or doubles or triples or dingers or outfield assists, but walks are indicative of some degree of patience, of discipline. There’s reason for the Dodgers to be particularly encouraged by the bases on balls, because Puig is new, and because Puig is new, pitchers are in the process of adjusting to him. Baseball, as we’ve come to learn, is a game of constant adjustments, all career long, but perhaps the biggest adjustments come early on, and there’s word out on Puig. At least, that’s what the numbers are saying. Puig hasn’t stopped hitting, but pitchers have changed the way they attack.

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The Matt Garza/Matt Harvey Connection

You’re going to be reading a lot about Matt Garza, if you haven’t already. This being July, it’s officially trading season, and Garza is probably the best starting pitcher on the market. So, rumors. Let me try to distill what I’ve seen: there’s talk the Cubs might reverse course and sign Garza to a long-term extension, but that probably won’t happen, and Garza will probably be dealt, probably soon. The free-agent-to-be has been scouted by just about everyone with an interest in pitching, because scouting is cheap. Garza’s going to be in demand, and he’s allowed five runs over his last five starts.

Among his opponents over that five-start stretch: the Astros, the Mets, and the White Sox. The Cubs would like to pitch Garza as a top-of-the-rotation ace, but that’s not the right label. By ERA-, he’s been as good as Mat Latos, but by FIP- he matches Scott Feldman, and by xFIP- he matches Yovani Gallardo. Over the rest of the season, ZiPS projects Garza to pitch similarly to Ricky Nolasco and Edwin Jackson. This has all been Matt Garza in a nutshell: he’s a good pitcher and an available pitcher, but he’s a three-month pitcher who isn’t worth torching the farm. He’s unlikely to be a guy who saves a season.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/9/13

8:59
Jeff Sullivan: Hello, and we’ll get started in just a few minutes

9:02
Comment From Alex
It seems too “on time” please push it back

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: That’s why I’m still finishing up my breakfast, even after 9am rolls by

9:02
Jeff Sullivan: I could stress out about this, or…

9:02
Comment From zack
What are the odds the Mariners try and sell high on Iwakuma and flip him for highly touted prospects that flame out in two years?

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Just don’t see it happening. The team isn’t that far away — pretty much no team is that far away — and Iwakuma is a really good value. Good luck replacing that value. Not saying it wouldn’t make some sense, but that’s a good situation that doesn’t need to be interrupted

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Bartolo Colon’s Biggest Misses

Bartolo Colon was strong again Monday night, as the A’s knocked off the host Pirates 2-1. Of his 108 pitches, 78 were strikes. He walked one batter out of the 30 he faced. As a consequence, Colon’s season walk rate went up.

Colon, maybe, doesn’t have the best command of any starting pitcher — but it’s close, and that much is something of a miracle, considering where Colon went and how he came back. Colon basically throws a ton of fastballs — his rate is the same as Aroldis Chapman’s — and only Cliff Lee has thrown a higher rate of strikes. Few pitchers have thrown a higher rate of first-pitch strikes. Colon’s walk rate is a tick above 3%, and no one’s thrown a higher rate of pitches in the zone. Though Colon’s far from unhittable, he succeeds by pounding the zone relentlessly and he  forces the batter to supply the damage. It might be a simple formula, but Colon makes it work, thanks to his command of his pitches.

So I thought we’d look at his wildest pitches. Sometimes a technique to examine a guy’s success can be by looking at his failures. Which has been Colon’s lowest pitch of the season? What about his highest? What about most inside and most outside? What, if anything, can we learn from these pitches? I’ll admit, I’m kind of going into this blind, but I have confidence we can learn something. So let’s pay tribute to Colon’s ability to throw strikes by looking at him throw some balls.

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The Best Non-All-Star Seasons of the Past 50 Years

This past weekend, we learned the rosters for the 2013 MLB All-Star Game. Perhaps more popular than the game itself is the practice of complaining about who did and didn’t make it, and so there are countless articles talking about snubs, and whatnot. One does have to note the absence of both Evan Longoria and Josh Donaldson, who currently rank sixth and seventh in baseball in WAR. Each would be a deserving representative, as each has a compelling case for eligibility. But, to be fair, it’s unclear just what the All-Star Game is supposed to reward, and over the past calendar year, Donaldson’s WAR rank drops to ninth, while Longoria’s drops to 14th. Wait, I don’t think that made the intended point.

Longoria, probably, should be in there, as should Donaldson. On the pitching side, perhaps the biggest snub is Derek Holland. But I don’t want to sit here and complain about possible snubs; rather, I want to talk a little bit about the best seasons put up by players who weren’t All-Stars. It wouldn’t make sense to complain, since I don’t actually care very much. But history is interesting, and below, we’ll examine some great seasons from between 1963-2012 that didn’t include an All-Star nod. Granted, the All-Star Game is in the middle, but these seasons at least look funny in retrospect. How do Longoria and Donaldson measure up?

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Breaking Down the Season’s Most Unlikely Double Steal

Some years ago, when they were up-and-coming instead of bad, Yuniesky Betancourt and Jose Lopez were both Seattle Mariners. The Mariners are well known for their advertising campaigns, and in one they pitched Betancourt and Lopez as the “double play twins,” middle infielders who did everything together, both on and off the field. Betancourt and Lopez, at the time, had a lot in common. Today, they continue to have a lot in common, which is too bad. But they were teammates, and they were sold as a pair.

A much better pair of teammates today includes Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder. The two are commonly discussed as a duo, as they make up perhaps baseball’s most intimidating lineup core. Cabrera and Fielder are supposed to do some things together, like crush baseballs. In the third inning on Saturday, for example, they slugged back-to-back dingers. What they’re not supposed to do together is steal. Cabrera and Fielder, combined, have fewer career steals than John Kruk. But, Sunday afternoon, the two pulled off a most unlikely double steal, and this demands to be investigated.

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Your Team’s New Trade Asset

For fans of Carlos Marmol, it’s been a confusing few days, even beyond the usual confusion baseline. On Tuesday, Marmol was shipped from the Cubs to the Dodgers. On Wednesday, there were initial reports the Dodgers were cutting ties, but now it’s clear they simply intend to send him to the minor leagues for a little while, in theory to get him “straightened out.” Marmol, at some point, should pitch for the Dodgers, and they have more interest in him than they had in the now-departed Matt Guerrier. Cynics will note that the solution to an inconsistent Brandon League isn’t adding another one, but if the odds are X% that League turns it around, the odds are greater that one of League and Marmol turns it around.

Of course, Marmol was just designated for assignment. There’s not a lot there, beyond the strikeouts, the frequency of which is plummeting. Since 2011, among pitchers with at least 150 innings, Marmol ranks 14th-worst in OBP allowed, at .355. He’s hanging around the likes of Dallas Keuchel and Derek Lowe and Edinson Volquez, and though Marmol generally limits batting and slugging, his career isn’t on the way up. Marmol, probably, can be useful, but since 2011 he has a 105 FIP-. Guerrier has a 109 FIP-. Lots of relievers can be useful and Marmol isn’t going to pitch the Dodgers into first place.

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The Casper Wells Experiment

Something you might not have heard from the past few days is that Micah Owings became a free agent. Owings opted out of his contract with the Washington Nationals, and the Nats granted him his release. Something you probably did hear from the last few days is that Casper Wells pitched in relief. Wells wasn’t the only recent-days position player on the mound, but Wells didn’t just pitch — Wells looked good. Or, all right, and good for an outfielder. The standards are quite a bit different, because only pitchers are trained to be pitchers.

In the ninth inning of a blowout between the White Sox and the Indians, Wells retired three of four batters. Mike Aviles popped out, Drew Stubbs walked, Asdrubal Cabrera whiffed and Jason Kipnis lined out to the track. Wells was the only White Sox pitcher who didn’t allow a hit, which isn’t to say he didn’t get a little lucky with the Kipnis drive. Still, what got people talking was Wells’ style. He threw hard, and he also mixed in an offspeed pitch with which Cabrera was neatly put away. Read the rest of this entry »


Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/2/13

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: Hello, you all!

9:03
Jeff Sullivan: I just had a lovely time-consuming error regarding coveritlive console something something!

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a very good memory of errors! Let’s chat about baseball now for a while.

9:04
Comment From MBM
Would you rather have Doug Fister or Matt Moore ROS? Is it close?

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Fister and it isn’t close because I don’t and can’t trust Matt Moore

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Moore is making some strides, I haven’t checked lately, but his control problems freak me out

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