Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/2/13

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: Hello, you all!

9:03	Jeff Sullivan: I just had a lovely time-consuming error regarding coveritlive console something something!

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t have a very good memory of errors! Let’s chat about baseball now for a while.

9:04	Comment From MBM Would you rather have Doug Fister or Matt Moore ROS? Is it close?

9:04	Jeff Sullivan: Fister and it isn’t close because I don’t and can’t trust Matt Moore

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Maybe Moore is making some strides, I haven’t checked lately, but his control problems freak me out

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: Make strides, or take strides? This one always confuses me. You’d think I’d look it up on the internet.

9:05	Comment From Arquimedes Bozo stock us with provisions!

9:05	Jeff Sullivan: here are beans?

9:05	Comment From bdhudson Does Chris Davis have a top-5 pretty swing?

9:06	Jeff Sullivan: Answering completely subjectively with incomplete information: yes he does

9:06	Comment From Jason How lucky is Mariners GM Jack Zduriencik to have missed on acquiring Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton?

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: While we can’t know what Hamilton or Upton would be doing with Seattle: very lucky. Well, at least with regard to the former — the latter’s still all right. But Hamilton would’ve been a catastrophe.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: Incidentally, a number of people sort of saw this coming from Hamilton and this is precisely why he was considered such an unusual risk.

9:07	Jeff Sullivan: It kinds of reminds me of when the Giants beat the Mariners’ six-year, nine-figure free-agent offer for Barry Zito

9:08	Jeff Sullivan: “The Mariners need to make a splash!” Sometimes you try to cannonball in water too shallow.

9:08	Comment From Simon When the Cards need a “real” number 5 pitcher (to replace Kelly) they have to bring up Carlos Martinez (vs Wacha who doesn’t have near the innings history), right? They’re stretching him out and he’s looking great. Do you think he performs better than Erasmo in the show?

9:10

Jeff Sullivan: Martinez is probably the guy although it’d be interesting to examine any potential innings limits down the stretch since he threw just 104 frames last season. Erasmo, last year, was quite good, and I’m usually pretty conservative with projecting prospects over proven big-league success, but that level of performance for Martinez is achievable

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: If you mean Erasmo this year, maybe lean Martinez just because of Erasmo’s elbow injury

9:11	Comment From JonnyD Lackey a better then average pitcher again?

9:11	Jeff Sullivan: no other way around it

9:12	Comment From GSon Paula Deen you’re not..

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: Why thank you!

9:12	Comment From Erik How many days until Eric Wedge is fired?

9:12	Jeff Sullivan: How many days until the end of the regular season? Possibly then

9:12	Comment From bdhudson Are the Brewers just going to sit around and suck in the hopes that Hart/Gammell come back next year and fill in the impossibly black hole?

9:13

Jeff Sullivan: Well they grabbed Juan Francisco, who at least has one skill worthy of note. So he’ll probably slug .430 while OBPing .260. I’d prefer to see them take a flier on someone less known but if you consider that the odds are that such a gamble wouldn’t work out, I guess in that light there’s little lost

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I just can’t imagine what it’s like to give that much time at first base to Yuniesky Betancourt and Alex Gonzalez

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: Well I can but I don’t like to

9:14	Comment From Harry What is your opinion of Robbie Erlin? Does he have the talent to stay in the Padres rotation the reat of the year?

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: I sure think so

9:14	Comment From Dustin What are your thoughts on David Price coming back tonight? Return to form? Someone offered him to me for Headley and Altuve in a league that counts IP.

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: He is probably going to be good

9:14	Jeff Sullivan: BREAKING NEWS

9:15	Comment From Das Otter Is Kluber going to be in the big leagues long enough to establish an annual “Domestic Abuse Showdown” AKA Kluber vs. Fister?

9:15	Jeff Sullivan: they probably won’t call it that

9:15	Comment From Justin So if you’re a GM and you have an expensive old mediocre relief pitcher you’re looking to unload, do you call Ned Colletti right away, or do you wait for him to inevitably contact you?

9:16	Jeff Sullivan: probably send him a telegram

9:16	Comment From Daniel Bring me down please. I’m getting too excited about Taijuan Walker. It will be less painful if I’m brought down now. Thanks

9:17	Jeff Sullivan: Walker is a young hard-throwing pitching prospect not unlike Ryan Anderson!

9:18	Comment From Beard of Reddick Nick Castellanos. Is he the #1 position prospect in baseball now?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Are you excluding guys who just recently graduated to the majors?

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Even if so, no

9:19	Comment From Barry If Gallardo barfs on your fantasy team but no one is around when it happens, does it still smell?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t know

9:19	Comment From kyle What do you think CarGo’s 2nd half look slike

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: a lot like what ZiPS and Steamer say

9:21	Comment From Conor Top 3 teams where Giancarlo Stanton lands next season?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Rangers, Mariners…Tigers?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: But almost everybody will be involved and you can’t predict when one GM will just go insane with his offer

9:22	Comment From Thank God Hes Back I’ve missed Bryce Harper.

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Might want to get used to this

9:22	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her What’s up with Corey Kluber? Should I be worried?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: Because he gave up a lot of hits in one start?

9:24	Comment From Gabe Hey Jeff, thanks for taking the time to chat! What do you think the Mets could get back for Bobby Parnell in a trade? (Amazin’ Avenue suggests Castellanos, JBJ, or Bogaerts, which would be incredible…)

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, not that

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Parnell is a fine relief pitcher. That’s not bringing back a top prospect

9:25	Comment From Caliban Yasiel Puig. What is his DEAL?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: 7/$42 million with an arbitration opt-in yuk yuk yuk

9:25	Comment From George Somebody offered me Wil Myers and Billy Butler for Chris Davis. Is that the worst trade offer you’ve ever heard?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: No. Have you ever looked at message boards?

9:25	Jeff Sullivan: That’s like not even close to the worst trade offer I’ve ever heard

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: In the movie Thunderheart Val Kilmer gives up his Ray Bans for a small rock

9:26	Jeff Sullivan: That’s so stupid!!

9:26	Comment From Guest Kennedy or Kluber ROS?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: The one who’s been good

9:27	Comment From Trent You think big Bart Colon keeps it rolling the rest of the year?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Why wouldn’t he?

9:27	Comment From Nick O If you were the GM of the Mariners or another non-contending team, what FA strategy would you pursue?

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: A limited one prioritizing short-term contracts to starting pitchers

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Basically, short-term contracts

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Seldom would I be convinced that I need to make a huge splash for a could-be superstar

9:28	Jeff Sullivan: Prince Fielder has been worth 0.7 WAR

9:28	Comment From jon Mets broadcasters last night said they expected the Mets to use Matt Harvey like Justin Verlander, high volume and tons of complete games. Thoughts on his career track?

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: Successful and occasionally interrupted. Harvey is one of the very best starting pitchers in baseball, that much is undeniable, but you just have to plan on his getting injured at some point. You hope that it’s an elbow instead of a shoulder

9:29	Jeff Sullivan: If the Mets see him as a workhorse, I’m going to defer to their judgment

9:29	Comment From Billy You’ve frequently mentioned you think Zoilo Almonte won’t be very good. Can you please explain why?

9:31	Jeff Sullivan: Uninteresting in the minor leagues. Career .766 OPS, no standout skill. That’s basically it

9:31	Comment From GSon When does Seattle stop the charade, clean house and bring up the Taijuan’s, Danny’s and others…while getting rid of Wedge/JZ?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: Walker next year — going to reach his innings limit this year and he’s not on the 40-man roster. Hultzen, pretty soon, if his rehab continues smoothly. Ramirez, soon, Paxton when he earns it. Wedge/Zduriencik could go away in October but we’ll see how the team finishes over the next 3 months

9:32	Comment From Dan Rickie Weeks ROS?

9:32	Jeff Sullivan: what his player page says

9:32	Comment From Guest Jason Kipnis was all-world for the first few months last year, then turned into a pumpkin in the second half. Gonna have a repeat this year?

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: His best month last year had an .810 OPS?

9:34	Jeff Sullivan: He should step back some but he’s looking like a real impact talent at this point

9:34	Comment From Jeff The Projected Standings page predicts both the White Sox and the Royals to be better than the Indians ROS. Seems a little harsh on the Indians, right?

9:36	Jeff Sullivan: The Indians haven’t been much better than the Royals to this point

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: They’re both basically .500 baseball teams, with the Indians enjoying a Kipnis breakout

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: You can bump the Indians up a notch if you feel like it but they’re not meaningfully different

9:37	Comment From Joe given hanley and adrian’s (somewhat) return to previous elite levels, would you bet on matt kemp returning to MVP levels again once his shoulder injury completely heals? both hanley and adrian had surgeries on their opposite shoulder like kemp..

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not having another 8-WAR season but he can get back to slugging .500 I imagine

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Adrian Gonzalez has the same numbers he posted a year ago

9:39	Comment From GSon Bigger surprise.. NYY’s in fourth place.. Cleveland in first place coming to the Fourth of July?

9:39	Jeff Sullivan: Cleveland. Didn’t think there’d be a competition in that division but here we are. The Yankees make plenty of sense

9:40	Comment From Baker I wouldn’t call Jack Z lucky. I have a few other expletives I’d throw out there first.

9:40	Jeff Sullivan: maybe some words that rhyme with lucky

9:40	Comment From Harry Thought it was interesting & actually kind of refreshing on how J. Zimm admitted after yesterday’s game that after he was spotted with a 8-0 lead, he kind of just “pitched to contact” essentially so he could try to get quick outs & get the hell out of there. Thoughts?

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: Runs contrary to what Brandon McCarthy has said in the past about pitching to the score. Every pitcher will be different in approach and I’ll have to read a little more about Zimmermann’s outing. Pitchers have the wrong idea about pitching to contact, because it doesn’t actually make you more efficient, but it can seem like it does when it’s going well and just because it isn’t the reality doesn’t mean people won’t still try it

9:42	Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her Is there anything Nick Castellanos can do to make the Tigers call him up?

9:42	Jeff Sullivan: Andy Dirks has a 1.3 WAR, between Jackson’s 1.6 and Fielder’s 0.7. Castellanos doesn’t have much of a spot, really. But he’ll be up if he keeps hitting

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, Dirks’ UZR is probably something of a mirage, but so is his low offense

9:43	Comment From fats how many relievers have struck out hunter/cabrera/fielder in a row this year?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know, some

9:43	Comment From Guest Best guess on the Pirates record at the end of the season.

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: 93-69

9:44	Comment From SomeDude What do you think is behind the Pirates

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: the Cardinals

9:44	Comment From Brandon What would you do with Gausman? The O’s don’t seem to have a plan. After he struggled and was sent to Triple-AAA, they brought him back as an extra arm in the pen. Now after a great outing he’s expected to be banished again. I hate the yo-yoing.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: I let him pitch in Triple-A for a bit while I target a starter on the trade market

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: I might use Gausman as a reliever down the stretch to use his arm but limit his innings

9:47	Comment From bdhudson Which team makes the playoffs sooner: Astros, Marlins, or ChiSox?

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: Marlins

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: haha THEY’RE WORKING OUT

9:47	Comment From Nate Do you think Zack Wheeler stays in the Mets rotation the rest of the year? At least until they shut him down?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, I think they let him try to work through his struggles in the bigs until he hits his limit

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: If they decided there’s nothing for him in Triple-A, there’s nothing for him in Triple-A

9:49	Comment From kyle Bundy and Gausman are going to contribute at some point, but the Os should absolutely be spenders on pitching this offseason, right? Their window looks like it is now and the immediate future

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: Well in that they’re not rebuilding, sure, but it’s not like the Orioles are working with a short-term, closing window. They’re in a good spot for a while. Machado, Davis, Wieters, Jones…they should add pitching, but the Orioles’ situation isnt’ desperate.

9:50	Comment From Bo Will/should Chris Johnson finish the season as the starting 3B in Atlanta?

9:50	Jeff Sullivan: No

9:50	Comment From Rated Rookie A September call-up question: do players getting their cup of coffee have to be on or added to the 40-man roster? I am wondering how much truthiness there is to Terry Ryan’s recent comments on Sano maybe, possibly coming up in September?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: need to be on the roster

9:51	Comment From Timothy Is Simmons the best fielding SS in baseball?

9:51	Jeff Sullivan: Yeah, probably

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: it’s probably not Adeiny Hechavarria http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/miami-marlins/fl-marlins-0625-20130624,0,7156007.story

9:53	Comment From Mr. T While it might not be the “traditional/purist” thing to do, Puig in the All-Star game would generate some buzz and excitement, yes? What percent chance to you give it happening?

9:54

Jeff Sullivan: It would be a good thing for the fans and maybe less of a good thing for the players, who wouldn’t want such an honor to be bestowed upon such a new talent. So that’s where you prioritize. But ultimately it won’t make much of a difference either way and the debate will be forgotten in time for the next one

9:55	Comment From Blueberry Kevin Towers is awful. At least, so I hear at Fangraphs. (Not the writers, mostly the commenters.) As a casual NL follower, I thought he was a pretty good GM, both at San Diego and Arizona. What gives?

9:56	Jeff Sullivan: He’s not a numbers-GM, so he’ll make some moves that disagree with sabermetric ideas, and then you’ll hear about them at places like FanGraphs. We don’t know how to evaluate GMs objectively and accurately and Towers is probably somewhere toward the bottom of the middle third

9:56	Comment From Baron Von Waffles When a pitcher is said to have a ceiling as a 2 or is considered a solid 3, what type of rotation is that based off of? A championship one? league average? Also could you give me examples of a 1-5 so I have a basis of comparison when the prospect guys talk?

9:57

Jeff Sullivan: If a pitcher is said to have a number-2 ceiling, what they mean is that the pitcher should be good without being a real shutdown ace like a Verlander or a Kershaw or whatever. Probably not dominant. If a number 3, I’m guessing the guy doesn’t have tremendous strikeout ability. It’s kind of arbitrary and people don’t have a good understanding of how the slots actually play out in real life

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: Let’s try something off the top of my head

9:57	Jeff Sullivan: 1: Verlander

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 2: Fister?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 3: …Leake

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: 4: Vargas

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: 5: Marquis

9:59	Comment From Marcus A. Tyler Kelly seems not awful, especially considering Thames was DFA’d and the Mariners had little to no leverage, no?

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: well Eric Thames is also not awful