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The Dodgers Have Made It Look Way Too Easy

The Dodgers have won two playoff series, but they aren’t undefeated. Remember that the Cubs beat them by a run in NLCS Game 4. Other teams have somewhat recently advanced to the World Series without having lost. Back in 2007, the Rockies swept the NLCS, after they swept the NLDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the Padres. And in 2014, the Royals swept the ALCS, after they swept the ALDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the A’s. The Dodgers are one of six teams in the wild-card era to make the World Series by going 7-1.

And it’s not like the Dodgers have even made every win a laugher. Their most recent game was kind of the exception. In Game 2 of the NLDS, they fell behind the Diamondbacks early. In the NLCS, they trailed the Cubs by a couple runs in Game 1, and in Game 2 Justin Turner won it in the bottom of the ninth. Some nails have been bitten. The Dodgers haven’t looked completely invincible.

On the other hand, they have looked completely invincible. When you look at the numbers overall, it seems like the Dodgers have coasted. They’ve turned this postseason into a statistical mismatch.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/20/17

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for the hiccup — forgot to set this up and schedule it for this morning yesterday, so everything is all screwed

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give a minute for the queue to populate itself!

9:10
CamdenWarehouse: Marshawn Lynch was ejected and sat in the stands last night!

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: One of the peak moments of 2017 professional sports

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This Is the Postseason of the Home Run

Yesterday was a good day for the Yankees and the Cubs. The Yankees moved to the brink of making the World Series, while the Cubs managed to avoid NLCS elimination. From a less team-oriented perspective, yesterday was also a good day for the home run. In Chicago, Willson Contreras started the scoring with a long solo shot. Javier Baez hit two solo dingers of his own, while the Dodgers got solo shots from Cody Bellinger and Justin Turner. In New York, Gary Sanchez launched a homer out to left. There were six home runs hit, on a day in which there were just 10 total runs scored. For none of the homers were any runners on base, but even so, that means that dingers accounted for 60% of the offense.

Now, 60% is extreme. It should be considered a one-day blip. And yet it does still fit a pattern. So far in the playoffs, we’ve seen a total of 234 runs. Of those, 115 have scored on homers. That means that 119 have scored on non-homers. You’ll notice that 115 and 119 are almost identical.

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These Are the Most Talented Playoff Teams of the Wild-Card Era

It’s been apparent from the beginning that these playoffs have included some awfully talented teams. Travis wrote a couple weeks ago about the possible arrival of the era of the super-team, and I examined the landscape myself at the start of the month, when I did my best to rate all 10 of the playoff teams based on their numbers and their expected playing times. We’re watching a lot of elite-level talent this month, and it only helps that the two weakest participants were eliminated in the wild-card games. Only quality left.

But now I want to look at this in a different way. I ran some numbers in the way that I did last October. I’d actually forgotten about that analysis until last night, when I mis-clicked on a spreadsheet I’d saved before. Nothing quite like stumbling your way into a new and timely article.

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Yu Darvish Drew a Four-Pitch RBI Walk

The Cubs didn’t lose to the Dodgers last night because Carl Edwards Jr. walked Yu Darvish with the bases loaded. The Cubs aren’t on the verge of getting swept by the Dodgers in the NLCS because Carl Edwards Jr. walked Yu Darvish with the bases loaded. The Cubs are losing because their series OBP is .202, while the Dodgers are up at .360. They’re losing because their series SLG is .266, while the Dodgers are up at .484. They’re losing because their pitchers have 18 walks and 20 strikeouts, while the Dodgers’ pitchers have 4 and 32. The Dodgers have been, by far, the better team. It’s the simplest possible explanation.

The Cubs are losing because they’ve been worse. That’s not Edwards’ fault. And you never know when things could flip; in last year’s NLCS, the Cubs were blanked in back-to-back games. They’re still the reigning champs until they’re gone. But the Cubs are losing because they’ve been worse. Edwards’ walk of Darvish didn’t turn the series on its head. It’s more about the symbolism. It captures the story of how the series has gone. Have I mentioned that Darvish walked on four pitches? With the bases loaded and two out in a two-run game, Darvish took four balls in a row.

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Playoff Games Tend to Take a Very Long Time

Less than a week ago, in Game 5 of the NLDS, the Cubs and the Nationals played one of the more strange nine-inning games that I can remember. I don’t need to go back over the details; Nationals fans don’t want to revisit them, and Cubs fans currently have more pressing matters on the mind. But in the end, Wade Davis struck out Bryce Harper to wrap up the bottom of the ninth. The game was never dull, as the Cubs escaped by only one run. Yet it became the longest nine-inning game in baseball’s postseason history. The first pitch was thrown at 8:08pm local time. The last one was thrown 277 minutes later.

Clearly, no conclusion can be reached based just on one extreme. It’s not like nine innings of playoff baseball always take four and a half hours. But, you might have a gut feeling that playoff games have been taking a while. They have been! Because they almost always do. For a variety of reasons, when it comes to planning your day around a playoff baseball game, you should carve out a bigger chunk of free time. By roughly half an hour or so.

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We Need to Talk About Todd Frazier’s Home Run

I have a handful of rules I try to abide as an everyday writer. For example, I try not to pick favorites. My job isn’t to have any favorites. My job is to try to be as objective as possible. I also think it’s vitally important to not tell people how they ought to feel. This is sports. You’re in it for your own reasons. It’s not my business to dictate how you consume your chosen form of entertainment. You should get from baseball whatever you want to get. You should feel about baseball however you want to feel.

That being said, now I’m going to cross myself. I’m going to violate one of my own rules. Let’s focus on Todd Frazier’s early three-run homer in Monday’s Game 3. The internet response was fairly consistent: joke of a stadium, and/or the ball is juiced. The response was uniformly derisive. I get it, because I felt the same way! But I’ve come all the way around, and I’d like to encourage you to do the same, if you can. That wasn’t a home run to be mocked. That was a home run to be celebrated. For Todd Frazier, it was a good piece of hitting.

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David Robertson Is Not Throwing Fastballs

In Saturday’s Game 2, David Robertson relieved Tommy Kahnle, who had relieved Luis Severino. Robertson worked two shutout innings, and the first of them was the bottom of the seventh, during which Robertson threw 13 pitches. Here is a log of what they were.

  1. breaking ball
  2. breaking ball
  3. breaking ball
  4. breaking ball
  5. breaking ball
  6. breaking ball
  7. breaking ball
  8. breaking ball
  9. breaking ball
  10. breaking ball
  11. breaking ball
  12. breaking ball
  13. breaking ball

Robertson’s first pitch in the bottom of the eighth was a fastball. It was taken for a strike.

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Justin Verlander’s Slider Was Fixed Before Houston

During the Astros’ walk-off win on Saturday, Justin Verlander threw a 124-pitch complete game, which I didn’t think was allowed. Verlander piled up 13 strikeouts, and, of those, nine came on sliders. Verlander threw 39 sliders in all, 30 of which went for strikes, in large part because the Yankees swung at the slider 27 times. Verlander’s always been known for his fastball, and, in Game 2, the heat was there from start to finish, but the slider appeared overwhelming, with the Yankees having absolutely no answer.

This part’s almost obligatory. Let’s watch a couple strikeout sliders, if only just for the memories.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/13/17

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Technically my second Friday baseball chat of this Friday, for you east coasters

9:05
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:06
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Jeff, thanks for chatting last night and being back again now. It was a really tough loss for Washington, but, as in every elimination game, it isn’t one play that ends a season. That said, I think there are multiple issues surrounding instant replay that the league will have to address after last night’s game. Is baseball still a game of inches? Or, with instant replay, is it now a game of millimeters?

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