Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/20/17

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: Sorry for the hiccup — forgot to set this up and schedule it for this morning yesterday, so everything is all screwed

9:09
Jeff Sullivan: I’ll give a minute for the queue to populate itself!

9:10
CamdenWarehouse: Marshawn Lynch was ejected and sat in the stands last night!

9:10
Jeff Sullivan: One of the peak moments of 2017 professional sports

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: For anyone who doesn’t know it already, this is allowed in baseball, per the official rules. If a player or coach gets ejected, that person is permitted to change into street clothes and watch the game from the stands, provided the person isn’t too close to the dugout

9:11
Jeff Sullivan: Still waiting on the first baseball player to do it, but of course Lynch would be a pioneer

9:12
Guest: Is Eno dying?

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Not any more than the rest of us

9:13
Guest: Morning Jeff, screw the Cubs I personally hope they lose for another 100 yrs

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: That seems mean-spirited

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: Especially since you presumably won’t be around for at least the end of that stretch

9:13
Jeff Sullivan: But it’s yours to decide! Take from sports whatever you please!

9:14
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Jeff! The Yankees beat the best pitching team *possibly ever* and might beat the *maybe* best hitting team of all-time…to how many games do they push the Dodgers and who wins?

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know exactly who would be favored going up against Kershaw/Darvish/Hill, with Jansen at the end, but as we’ve discussed so many times over, the Yankees’ pitching staff becomes a playoff strength. Either of the two possible WS matchups would be great but the series itself should go at least six

9:15
Jeff Sullivan: I say that knowing that there was no way to predict the Cubs would be clobbered in five. Baseball will get you

9:16
Scherzer? I hardly know her : You have just inherited a franchise. You get to pick any baseball executive to run your team. Money is no object. Who are you picking?

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know how you wouldn’t pick Epstein or Friedman

9:17
Jeff Sullivan: Depending on the franchise, maybe you lean Friedman, if it’s a smaller-market operation

9:18
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think there’s a *ton* separating those two from the next-best tier, but they’ve proven their worth several times over

9:18
Waltharius: What do you think of a recent surge of Josh Naylor in AFL? Will he end up being a trade chip or a player Padres will field in the future?

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: Naylor is 10-for-27 in the AFL. He just posted a full-season .761 OPS in the minors

9:19
Jeff Sullivan: The only thing he has going for him is he’s 20 years old. His performance record is bad

9:20
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You never mentioned anything about Josh Reddick drawing a base on a catcher’s interference! I thought for sure we’d get an article on our *THIRD* of this postseason.

9:20
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t want to overdo the catcher’s interference articles. I like it as one of my Twitter beats but we probably don’t need something on FanGraphs for every single instance in the playoffs

9:21
Jeff Sullivan: That being said, there have been 15 catcher’s interference calls in the history of the playoffs, according to Baseball Reference. Three of them this month alone

9:22
Nebkreb: Please tell whoever runs the High Heat Stats Twitter account (not the MLBNetwork show) to stop harping on Judge’s strikeouts. Use your Baseball Twitter power for good.

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s be real here: Judge has struck out 24 times in 49 postseason plate appearances. That’s pretty extraordinary

9:22
Jeff Sullivan: Nevertheless, he has an .847 OPS. He’s been more good than bad. And the strikeouts were only really out of control against the Indians

9:23
Jeff Sullivan: So the strikeouts don’t make Judge *bad.* But there’s no denying that his strikeouts are incredibly high

9:24
Reddick’s jilted ex: who would you rather see play the Dodgers in the WS and why?

9:24
Jeff Sullivan: I have zero rooting interest here. Or, I should say, my rooting interests balance out. I want Houston to win, because they’re a good story. I want the Yankees to win, so we can all have reason to go back to hating the Yankees. The Astros have what should be a super fun offense. The Yankees have hat should be a super fun bullpen

9:25
Jeff Sullivan: From a strictly on-field perspective, the Astros and Yankees are equally delightful, recent Houston hitting slump be damned

9:26
CamdenWarehouse: The other day when you said that Justin Verlander had lost nothing on his fastball.  Has everything adjusted fastball speeds to be in line with how they are measured now or has everyone forgotten that the new way adds speed?  It feels like we talked about a lot for two weeks in April, then everyone went back to comparing this year to last like nothing was different.

9:27
Jeff Sullivan: The Pitch Info velocity measurements are set to be consistent season to season

9:28
Jeff Sullivan: That is, the Baseball Info Solutions velocity measurements show a spike of about a half-tick this season, but Pitch Info retroactively boosted old velocities so that even comparisons can be made. They effectively “moved back” old measuring points, so that velocities are reported closer to the release point

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: That’s all a complicated jumble, but the simple point is: we have Pitch Info stuff for a decade, and it’s safe to compare the pitch speeds. And even when you use the other data going back to 2002, it’s not worthless. You can just mentally add about half a mile per hour or so

9:29
Guest: What baseball player would get ejected and go to the stands to watch?

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: Adrian Beltre

9:29
Jeff Sullivan: The answer is Adrian Beltre

9:30
Scherzer? I hardly know her : Gut feeling. Where is Harper playing in 2019?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: Yankees

9:30
Waltharius: Who will most likely be the trade candidate from Padres farm system when the time comes that they will FINALLY compete?

9:30
Jeff Sullivan: How is anyone supposed to know that answer now?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: They’re years and years off. The trade-bait players might not even be in the system yet

9:31
LegallyEagle: For the World Series, no reason to save up for a next round. So should the Dodgers go with a 3-man rotation and put Wood into the bullpen?

9:31
Jeff Sullivan: Nah. You still don’t want to overtax your players. I think you just start Wood and think from the get-go that he might get only four or so innings

9:31
Scherzer? I hardly know her : Gut feeling. Who is Otani playing for in 2018?

9:32
Jeff Sullivan: Cubs. But I have no particularly good reason to say that, other than they could badly use him, so they’ll try as hard as they can

9:32
Blame: Hey Jeff, how much will the new QO be worth? Basically what a high second round pick is? (For those players eligible for that)

9:33
Jeff Sullivan: It’s something like $18 million

9:34
Oddball Herrera: With an average pitcher facing an average batter, what % of pitches outside of the zone would you guess are there on purpose, and what % would you guess are true misses?

9:34
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say maybe 20-25% of pitches are *intended* to be balls

9:35
Jeff Sullivan: Well, let me take that back. 0% of pitches are intended to be balls. But maybe 20-25% are intended to be out of the zone

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers, for the most part, try to pitch to the edges. They’re looking for borderline calls or borderline swings. Pitchers aren’t that accurate

9:36
Jeff Sullivan: Just about no pitch is ever supposed to be an easy strike down the middle, and just about no pitch is ever supposed to be more than six or nine inches away from the zone

9:37
Michelle: Hi Jeff, how do you handle how much there is to read in this world but so little time to do so?

9:37
Jeff Sullivan: The world is meant to be experienced, not read about

9:38
Colin: Not a big deal, but why did Morrow and Jansen pitch last night with a huge lead?

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Maybe some kind of reward

9:38
Jeff Sullivan: Also, baseball managers are obsessed with going for the throat. Everyone on the Dodgers now gets several days to rest

9:40
Ted: Is there any particular strategy (or strategies) the Yankees should look to employ against Verlander tonight? He looked downright invincible last time out

9:40
Jeff Sullivan: Last night, the Dodgers came out very aggressive against Jose Quintana, knowing that he loves to strike early and get ahead

9:41
Jeff Sullivan: With Verlander, as you’d expect, he’s pretty fastball-heavy early in counts. He goes to the slider when he’s out ahead. He made terrific use of that slider earlier in the series. There’s not much for the Yankees to do to prepare, but they should at least think about going after more first-pitch fastballs

9:42
Lunar verLander: Apparently (as of a few minutes ago), Dusty Baker won’t be returning as Nats manager next year. Thoughts?

9:43
Jeff Sullivan: I like Baker as the Nats’ manager, but it seems there was some mounting discord between himself and ownership. He wanted an extension in the middle of the year that ownership wouldn’t give. No manager likes to manage in a contract season as a possible lame duck

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: Look, Baker is 68. Lived a full life. Hasn’t won a World Series, but there are bigger things than that. I think he’s still a capable MLB skipper, but maybe Baker is just tired of the drama and the exhaustion. Seems like a candidate to become very happily and contentedly retired

9:45
E: what% of winning the world series is luck?

9:45
Jeff Sullivan: A large percent

9:46
Jeff Sullivan: Not so large a percent once you get there, but the path is fraught with obstacles

9:46
M: Hey Jeff! Remember when the dodgers traded Dee Gordon for Hernandez, Barnes, and, essentially, howie Kendrick? That was awesome.

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Even back then, Barnes seemed like a very underrated something

9:47
Ben: Do you want to manage the Nats with Dusty gone?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: good heavens no

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t stand being around alphas

9:47
Joe: Who wins tonight?

9:47
Jeff Sullivan: Astros

9:48
CamdenWarehouse: It’s OK to hope that the Cubs don’t win the WS again before the Orioles get one, right?

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: It’s OK to root for whatever you want to root for, provided it’s not rooting for bodily harm

9:48
Jeff Sullivan: Sports are for you. They are provided for your entertainment. Be entertained however you like! Otherwise, what’s the point?

9:49
Fair line: This is silly but I will say it: as a Nats fan, I haven’t seen the NLCS since 2014. Just can’t bring myself to do it. This year was particularly….exquisite in its torture. That’s all I got. Go Dodgers

9:49
Jeff Sullivan: I can’t imagine wanting to watch the playoffs right after your own favorite team gets eliminated

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: I got completely sucked in to the Ottawa Senators’ playoff run last summer. No way in hell was I ever going to watch the Stanley Cup

9:50
Jeff Sullivan: (Ottawa lost one win short of the Stanley Cup)

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: (That was not clear before)

9:51
Bill W: Chances that in a maximum-length WS, Kershaw starts in 1, 4 and 7?

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: Somewhere between 0 and 1%

9:51
Jeff Sullivan: He’s going 1 and 5, with a possible 7 relief appearance if necessary

9:52
Austin Hedges: How much should I hit in the next 2~3 years to secure my tenure with the Padres?

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: 90 wRC+

9:52
Josh R: All the talk about the Dodger depth in the off-season became a sort of joke. But man did it pay off. Kike!? Culberson!? Morrow?! Barnes?! What a team!

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: In fairness, Culberson was never considered quality depth, I don’t think

9:52
Jeff Sullivan: And Morrow had a 7.20 ERA in Triple-A this season somehow

9:53
Jeff Sullivan: But the general point is correct. The Dodgers have insane depth. And also insane star-level talent. The Dodgers are insanely good

9:53
Guest: Wouldn’t the Dodgers be the best pitching team this yr?

9:54
Charlie: My brother-in-law (Yankees fan) insists he knows that they will win the World Series and has since they won the ALDS (or maybe game 4 of the ALDS). He now claims that they have a better lineup, rotation, and bullpen than the Astros. When I point out that the Astros have had the best offense in the sport since 1931, he points me towards evidence consisting of five games. My question is, as a Mets fan, how do I deal with baseball/life?

9:54
Jeff Sullivan: Spend more of your life helping people

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: Do that and you’ll naturally have a better perspective with regard to everything else

9:55
Andrew: are the yankees gunna re-sign both tanaka and cc to new deals?

9:55
Jeff Sullivan: I think Sabathia is more likely. They’ll try with Tanaka, but some other team might go an extra year or two

9:56
Josh R: The Dodgers have only given up 41 hits in 8 games this post season. Yet of those 14! have been homers. I’m not sure how to wrap my mind around that. Have they been both dominant and unlucky?

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: Feels like a bunch of those homers have been solo shots in games that are already lopsided. Like, I don’t even really care that Kershaw allowed a homer to Bryant last night

9:56
Jeff Sullivan: 5 walks, 53 strikeouts against the Cubs. Incredible

9:57
bjogc: With Headleys recent “hot streak” have DH’s finally outpaced NL pitchers this postseason? We have to be at peak playoff DH futility, right?

9:57
Jeff Sullivan: Let’s see!

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: DH in the playoffs: .206/.265/.290

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Pitchers in the playoffs: .098/.115/.137

9:58
Jeff Sullivan: Way to go, designated hitters! You did it!

9:59
Matt: Among Baez, Schwarber, Happ, and Almora , which guy makes the most sense to move to address roster holes? Please factor in trade value with optimal roster construction.

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: It’s Schwarber

9:59
guest: Thoughts on Tigers hiring Ron Gardenhire?

9:59
Jeff Sullivan: Fun fact: Ron Gardenhire has been a manager or coach for 15 consecutive playoff losses!

10:00
Jeff Sullivan: Won’t have to worry about that in Detroit any time soon

10:01
Jeff Sullivan: It’s an interesting hire, in that I don’t know what you *look* for when you’re a bad team that knows you’re going to remain a bad team. Gardenhire has plenty of experience managing bad teams. I guess that could be a benefit?

10:02
Mac: Should the indians consider picking up Brantley’s option so he can play 1b if they can’t resign Santana? He has the offensive ability to make the price a bargain, it’s just a matter if they trust him to play enough to make it worth it (especially since he just underwent another surgery)

10:02
Jeff Sullivan: $11-million option, $1-million buyout, meaning it’s effectively a $10-million decision. Brantley was worth a little more than that even this year. I’d pick it up

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: You’d be taking a big chance, but Brantley has been so good before, and for one year the risk isn’t huge

10:03
Tim: Between the Nats and BoSox, seems there are more manager openings on playoff-caliber teams than there are qualified candidates, no?

10:03
Jeff Sullivan: I’d say there are more than two qualified manager candidates

10:05
jkim: how good is the dodger bullpen? 22 shutout innings in a row – they definitely have to be an equal of the Yankees at least in terms of quality no? I don’t think they can pull what the Yankees did in the wildcard game, but from 5th inning on shouldn’t they be equal to the Yankees?

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Maeda has provided a huge boost, and obviously Jansen is as good as it gets. But I think I’d still take Green/Robertson/Kahnle/Chapman over Maeda/Watson/Morrow/Jansen

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: Sub in Cingrani for Watson if you want

10:06
Jeff Sullivan: The back of the Dodger bullpen is excellent, and the Yankees are hurt by the disappearing act of Dellin Betances, but the Yankees are still *so good.* Embarrassingly deep and good at missing bats

10:07
hscer: after 10 minutes of consideration, my first guess is now that Baker felt slighted a la Riggleman, but since the 2017 Nats >>>> 2011 Nats he stuck it out

10:07
Jeff Sullivan: Everyone just wants to feel appreciated. I doubt the Nationals did much to make Baker feel quite at home

10:07
Hannah Hochevar: Really liked your piece about the post-season of the Home Run. Does this give the Yanks an advantage over Houston (a team built for dingers vs. one for contact) or is that mixing correlation/causation?

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: The thing about the Astros is that, at least before this series, they were great at contact *and* power!

10:08
Jeff Sullivan: And now the hitting has just evaporated. I don’t quite get it. But it’s happened, and as we’ve seen from the Yankees, the power allows them to strike very quickly

10:09
E: Who is the biggest phony in baseball?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know. Chris Russo?

10:09
Q-Ball: Dusty gone as Nats Manager!  Hot take?

10:09
Jeff Sullivan: They’ll miss him

10:10
Guest: The next minor league player to come up and do a Judge/bellinger impersonation is

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: I expect Verdugo will be good very quickly

10:10
Jeff Sullivan: Not that I expect him to lead the majors in WAR, as Judge just did…

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: So maybe a better answer would be no one

10:11
Corey: If a rule was put in place dictating that batters must kneel to hit, would Mike Trout still be the best player in baseball?

10:11
Jeff Sullivan: You’d be completely taking away the lower body, so it would become a question of bat control and core strength

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Home runs would disappear almost entirely

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: Votto

10:12
Jeff Sullivan: It’s Votto

10:14
Ted: What should the Yankees do with Todd Frazier in the offseason? My gut instinct is there’s a team out there willing to pay him more, but he’s become a #TrueYankee in a short period of time

10:14
Jeff Sullivan: It would be pleasing to re-sign him for two years, but I imagine he’ll find offers of three or four, and then it’s just not worth the Yankees’ investment, I don’t think

10:15
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Let’s say the Dodgers lose the World Series. What kind of line does Clayton Kershaw have in two starts that puts to rest the idea that he is a postseason choker?

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t worry about it

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t worry about that narrative

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t worry about anyone who repeats that narrative

10:15
Jeff Sullivan: It’s just not worth your own mental energy

10:16
Hannah Hochevar: Fun to watch the Kershaw arm angle last night. Seemed like he dropped down a few times again. Announcers were saying that some of his problems this year are due to hitters being more geared for low balls in general. Agree?

10:16
Jeff Sullivan: He’s worked lower than he usually does this season. Not that his season was in any way bad. And I don’t have a good explanation for the postseason dingers, aside from, welp

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: The drop-down slot continues to intrigue me, because it’s interesting while also not being so helpful. Kershaw hasn’t pitched all that well from the second arm slot, but he’s still doing it in the playoffs, suggesting that he thinks it’s worth the trick

10:17
Jeff Sullivan: Did it four times last night. Two strikes, all fastballs, all elevated

10:18
Soxfan: What’s the most important aspect of good player development? Is it mostly finding the right personnel? Having the most resources?

10:18
Jeff Sullivan: I think a lot of it comes down to coaches throughout a system providing a consistent message

10:19
Jeff Sullivan: Now, that message has to be a good one in the first place, of course, but one of the worst things that can happen for a developing player is to be told a different thing at every level

10:20
Colin: I asked you a question last week you may remember, about Bill James idea of incentivizing a quick pace of play. Well he published an article on his site yesterday publishing his thoughts in more detail, if you’re curious. https://www.billjamesonline.com/two_unrelated_essays/ I would love to maybe see you write about the topic beyong just “put in a pitch clock.” Some time this off-season perhaps?

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: Suspend Willson Contreras

10:20
Jeff Sullivan: I think without Willson Contreras and all of his visits to the mound, average game length will go down next year league-wide by 20 minutes

10:21
Joe: No love for cashman in the top tier of executives?

10:21
Jeff Sullivan: I didn’t say Epstein and Friedman are the only good executives. They’re just, I think, the two best executives for the hypothetical presented

10:22
BESR: Thoughts on the Past Fangraphs twitter account?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Yesterday I interacted with a twitter account dedicated to Charlie Culberson’s hair

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: There are a lot of twitter accounts

10:22
Waltharius: When it comes to draft, should the team emphasize their need (i.e. draft OF in 1st round to add in thin OF talent) or drafting best player available?

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Never need

10:22
Jeff Sullivan: Never never never need

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Drafting for need is stupid

10:23
Brian: The Nationals have averaged 92.5 wins over the last 5 years and will be on their 4th different manager. That seems like…something

10:23
Jeff Sullivan: Probably also like their 6th different closer

10:24
Bryce: if Seager can’t go for the Dodgers, would you still consider them the favorite in the WS?

10:24
Jeff Sullivan: If Seager is out, Dodgers might look a little worse than the Astros. Would still maybe be a hair better than the Yankees

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: But, obviously, one player can matter only so much. The Dodgers just clobbered the Cubs without any Seager at all, and Charlie Culberson had two doubles and a triple. The Cubs had one double and no triples

10:25
Adam: If Yankees make the WS, Fox’s main storylines are going to be “man, Todd Frasier just has so much danged fun out there. He’s like a little leaguer!” and “Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge”

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: Aaron Judge is a pretty compelling storyline

10:25
Jeff Sullivan: He is amazing

10:25
S: Dusty out in DC. Why would anyone better want the Nationals job? You get one shot before Harper leaves and then the team is in the wilderness for a long time, and you inevitably get blamed for the failure?

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Because there are only 30 managerial jobs at any one time. Can’t afford to be that picky. I can’t imagine Ron Gardenhire wanted to end up in Detroit of all places but an open door is an open door. Can’t turn down chances like this

10:26
Jeff Sullivan: Most managerial tenures end without a championship. Comes with the job

10:26
Mike: Various projections all put the Dodgers 54-56% to win which seems like its mostly home field advantage.  So a close matchup regardless

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: Yes. Only very good teams remained in the ALDS/NLDS. And so only very good teams remained in the ALCS/NLCS. No such thing as a bad matchup this October once the Twins and Rockies were gone

10:27
Oscar: With Dusty out here in DC, who do you think can take the Nats to the next level? Will the Lerners pay for Farrell?

10:27
Jeff Sullivan: A catcher

10:28
Ethan: How soon do you think someone will break the single season strikeout record? There’s been at least on challenger every year for the last few

10:28
Jeff Sullivan: The record is 223, set by Mark Reynolds in 2009

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: All of the top 26 strikeout seasons have come since the turn of the millennium, almost all of them in the past decade

10:29
Jeff Sullivan: Pretty obvious why this is happening

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: Strikeouts aren’t going to stop going up. Only thing keeping the highest strikeout levels down is that players don’t play quite as much as they used to, with teams increasingly emphasizing rest

10:30
Jeff Sullivan: But that record won’t last very much longer

10:31
Jeff Sullivan: Joey Gallo just struck out 196 times and he only made 135 starts

10:32
Laxer: What kind of contract is dan murphy looking at next offseason?

10:32
Jeff Sullivan: A big one, although he’ll need to have another sensational 2018, because when players get to this age the market doesn’t have much tolerance for decline

10:33
Waltharius: How likely will a prospect bounce back from a tough introduction to full-season baseball?

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: I try not to judge any young player too much by his first few major-league months

10:33
Jeff Sullivan: But I see now you are probably asking about a guy in the minors, not the majors

10:34
Jeff Sullivan: If a prospect has a bad first full season in the minors, then I think you give that guy one more half-season to look for progress. If, by July, there still aren’t enough signs of life, that’s reason for great worry

10:35
Bort: What do you make of Rougned Odor? He has youth and power on his side, but…..yikes.

10:35
Jeff Sullivan: Even when he’s going well, he’s barely an above-average hitter, because he just doesn’t know how to walk. I think he’s much better than the season he just had, but he needs to tighten up his zone, because he’s somehow even less disciplined than Javier Baez

10:36
Soxfan: Do you think Hosmer would be a good fit for the Red Sox?

10:36
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:37
Sleepy: Javy Baez striking out looking twice (?!?!?) against the Dodgers is easily the most recockulous stat of the entire postseason.

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Three times in the series!

10:37
Jeff Sullivan: Eight times all season!

10:38
Jeff Sullivan: I was actually surprised to learn last night that Baez had struck out looking twice in a game before. Most recently, it had happened on April 7 against Jimmy Nelson

10:38
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Every postseason game has a television panning between celebrities and athletes of other sports taking in the game…why don’t you think we see other Major Leaguers watching other teams compete in the stands as fans? Is it a “why go to work on your day off” thing?

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: When the baseball season is over, I can’t imagine baseball players want to go to another baseball stadium on purpose for a while

10:39
Jeff Sullivan: Even the ones who want to follow the playoffs would much rather just do so on TV, from home, with their friends or family

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t be surprised, though, if Zack Greinke were going to games, unnoticed

10:40
Ben: Do you think the Brewers move Keon Broxton this offseason?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: No

10:40
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Is Tyler Glasnow next year’s Jose Berrios?

10:40
Jeff Sullivan: I was…not encouraged by his late-season appearances, but the stuff is so good I remain hopeful.

10:42
Jeff Sullitruck: I know they need to tackle the GM position first, but…what free agents do you see the Braves going after this offseason?

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: Some of that will depend on whether they can successfully dump some of the veteran outfield garbage. But I foresee an offseason of focusing on second- and third-tier veteran pitching

10:43
Jeff Sullivan: again

10:43
Colin : How should I feel about Walt Weiss being a bench coach for the Braves?

10:44
Jeff Sullivan: Don’t

10:44
Ethan: Is there any preference/tendency of Japanese players to come to teams that already have Japanese players?

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: It’s probably overstated. But now, as I reexamine things, Darvish joined the Rangers when they already had Uehara and Tateyama, and Matsuzaka joined the Red Sox shortly after they picked up Okajima

10:47
Jeff Sullivan: And Iwakuma signed with the Mariners when they had Ichiro, and Ichiro was also the lure for Kawasaki

10:48
Jeff Sullivan: There’s the rumor that Ohtani will want to go where Darvish goes. I wouldn’t put too much stock in that. But a Japanese player is going to want to know that his employer is set up to make it a comfortable home for Japanese players. Stands to reason already having a Japanese player or two wouldn’t hurt

10:49
Jeff Sullivan: It’s also worth remembering that there’s a lot more to a person than the country he’s from. Two Japanese players might dislike one another, just as two American players could

10:49
Janus: It never ceases to startle me when I go to a player’s page and see they’re within months of my birth date. This ever happen to you?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: Yoenis Cespedes has my exact birthday and I forget this fact several times every year

10:50
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: If you are a team who wants Ohtani, and you are perhaps willing to be duplicitous in your efforts to bring him in, you might expect the loss of draft picks if you are caught. How many draft picks in a single draft are you willing to cede to ensure Ohtani?

10:50
Jeff Sullivan: I would forfeit an entire draft to sign Ohtani

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: Only the first draft pick *really* matters and even there you’re talking about lower eight figures of value

10:51
Shuck Bowalter: I’d like to point out re: Judge and his strikeouts – his strike zone is all jacked up both normally and especially in the postseason.

10:51
Jeff Sullivan: If Aaron Judge always has a jacked-up strike zone, then he should be used to that by now, because he’s 25 years old

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: It’s not like he’s only become a tall baseball player all of a sudden

10:52
Jeff Sullivan: Jose Altuve has adapted to the reality that he gets a high strike zone. Judge will always get a large strike zone

10:53
the pale king: how much does morrow get in his next contract?

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: I could see him around 2/$18m or maybe even 3/$24m

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: There are always going to be health questions there, but the strikes and the stuff are legitimate

10:53
Jeff Sullivan: He’s ready to close

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: again

10:54
Julio: How does Portland make sense for an expansion team when they just a couple of years ago kicked baseball out?

10:54
Jeff Sullivan: Portland has grown faster than almost any other city in the country. It’s also a lot more appealing to support a big-league franchise instead of a Triple-A also-ran

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: This city loves its freakin MLS operation

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Even the women’s soccer team gets major support

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Only question is whether there’s a buyer

10:55
Sonny: Does Kershaw start game 1 now?

10:55
Jeff Sullivan: Yes

10:56
Natsfan: Tom Boswell compared Harper and Adam Lind, arguing that because their games played and batting averages are similar, Harper’s been overhyped. This isn’t a question, just wanted to give you an easy article to write debunking it.

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: No point. That’s not fun nor is it in any way meaningfully illuminating

10:56
Matt: Best guess on who the Cubs’ most significant offseason SP acquisition is? They need at least two SPs, no?

10:56
Jeff Sullivan: Feels like Darvish and then hoping for Ohtani

10:57
gump: I will never forgive you for thinking the Yankees winning a WS is good, even if it is just to generate hatred. You have been marked!

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: I never really know where my rooting interests are going to go come playoff time

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: The Mariners have been so bad forever that October is always a blank slate and then my brain picks what it picks

10:57
libre: How great is it that Kershaw is going to be in the World Series?

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: Very great

10:57
Jeff Sullivan: He was choked up last night during his postgame on-field interview

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: No one deserves this more

10:58
Julio: With Baker out, can we assume that the Nats are going to go all out for Harper’s last season?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: What’s the difference between going all-out and what the Nationals have already been doing for years?

10:58
Andrew: How intense are game plans that pitchers have? For example, if a random pinch hitter comes up, would a SP (or catcher) have a specific pre-planned game plan to get that guy out?

10:58
Jeff Sullivan: Even with the game already lopsided, the Dodgers had two mound meetings last night when the Cubs sent up pinch-hitters

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Presumably, those meetings were so that Kershaw could be reminded what the pinch-hitter is all about

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: The game plans are more detailed in the playoffs, but pitchers have at least a general idea of how to attack everyone

10:59
libre: Who *should* the Dodgers want to face in the World Series?  That Astros offense and that Yankee bullpen are frightening.

10:59
Jeff Sullivan: Doesn’t matter to them

11:00
gump: Dusty to the Red Sox now? Good group of veteran pitchers, like the Nats were. Set up to win now, like the Nats were…

11:00
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the man but I can’t imagine Baker would want to subject himself to that

11:00
PeterZezel: Jeff I have 4 midterms, 2 assignments and a work deadline all next week.  What the best course of action so I can watch as much playoffs baseball as possible in that time?

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: There’s only playoff baseball Tuesday and Wednesday night. Bust your ass around those four-hour time slots

11:01
CamdenWarehouse: “The world is meant to be experienced, not read about” While I never read your early blogging, I’m confident saying this sentence is the worst thing you’ve ever written.

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: Oh please

11:01
Jeff Sullivan: I have written far worse sentences

11:02
LegallyEagle: Should playoff rosters be larger than 25?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: No

11:02
Jeff Sullicar: With the Cubs and [likely] Astros not reaching the world series, is there more merit to the Braves rebuild strategy of high risk, potential top-of-the-rotation arms?

11:02
Jeff Sullivan: The Braves are terrible. The Cubs have been excellent three years in a row, and the Astros also look like a repeat division winner

11:03
Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Ron Artest.  The name alone conjures up some distinctly unfavorable images.  Is there anybody in baseball history like that?  Maybe Albert Bell?

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know the extent of the Ron Artest story, but I do know that Milton Bradley played major-league baseball for several years

11:03
Janus: Is campfire smell the most annoying thing about camping? In the moment it seems fine, but on the car ride home it makes me want to ride with my head out the window.

11:03
Jeff Sullivan: A friend of mine loves the campfire smell so much he wants his entire apartment to smell like it

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’m not that excited about it, and so usually I’m enthusiastic about getting home and changing my clothes

11:04
Jeff Sullivan: The most annoying thing about camping is poop

11:05
Sharp: Trying to expand my understanding of metrics.  ERA- and wRC+ both give us good approximations of performance compared to the league.  Can they be used to predict outcomes?  If a 90 pitcher faced off against a 120 batter, and league OBP is .315, would that batter be expected to get on base 34% of the time?

11:05
11:05
Jeff Sullivan: Easiest, in that case, to just use wOBA and wOBA allowed

11:06
Adam: Maybe I’m a moron, but what exactly is so terrible about being a ‘lame duck’ manager? Will players really not play for you if you may not be back next year? will management really not let you do what you want? I just don’t understand how it is any different than being a lame-duck player.

11:06
Jeff Sullivan: I don’t really know, personally, but I’ve heard enough managers say it that I have no choice but to believe it’s some kind of problem

11:07
AD: Gut feeling, when does Otani sign?

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: Ichiro signed at the end of November. Matsui, December. Matsuzaka, December. Iwakuma, January. Darvish, January. Maeda, January. Tanaka, January

11:09
Jeff Sullivan: I guess I’ll put it a little after New Year’s

11:10
Charlie: Can you explain to me why it makes a difference if your best reliever pitches earlier in a tie game than later if you need six outs anyway?

11:10
Jeff Sullivan: Comes down to what you think the leverage is going to do. In theory, you want your best reliever going when the leverage is the highest

11:10
Nat: Have you been up into the Columbia River Gorge since the fires? How are things looking?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: Driven through. Not permitted to actually go in there yet, and that’ll be true for a while, as winter storms bring down trees and slopes. The damage is pretty severe and widespread, but the recovery process won’t take all that long, given how much precipitation the area receives. And the Gorge is striking regardless, just because of the landform of it. Not all about the forests

11:11
E: Would you still watch baseball if it was played by robots?

11:11
Jeff Sullivan: No

11:12
Jim: On the one hand, I’ve rooted for the dodgers my whole life and haven’t seen them in the WS, on the other, standing room only tickets are going for $1000.

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: The Dodgers are in no way incentivized to make WS tickets more affordable, considering they play in Los Angeles

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: Sucks a lot for the average person, but thankfully the television or bar experience is also terrific

11:12
Jeff Sullivan: All right, I need to get rolling

11:13
Jeff Sullivan: So thank you everybody for hanging out, and I’m sorry for what I didn’t or couldn’t address. We’ll do it again next week at the same time, and until then, be well and have great days

We hoped you liked reading Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/20/17 by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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DBA455
Member
DBA455

Re: Ron Artest. I bring you an Elijah Dukes Wikipedia excerpt:
In 1996, Dukes’ father was convicted of second-degree murder. One year later, Dukes was arrested for the first time. Dukes has been arrested at least three times for battery, and once for assault.[9] According to court records, he fathered at least five children with four women between 2003 and 2006.[9]

On May 23, 2007, Dukes’s wife NiShea Gilbert sought a restraining order against him after he threatened her life and the lives of their children.[10] On May 2, Dukes had sent a photo of a gun to her cell phone and left her the following voicemail: “Hey, dawg. It’s on, dawg. You dead, dawg. I ain’t even bulls——-. Your kids too, dawg. It don’t even matter to me who is in the car with you. Ni—-, all I know is, ni—-, when I see your motherf—— a– riding, dawg, it’s on. As a matter of fact, I’m coming to your motherf—— house.”[10] On June 12, a 17-year-old foster child who was living in the care of a relative of Dukes accused him of impregnating her.[11] Police said the sex was apparently consensual.[11] When the girl confronted Dukes to inform him about the pregnancy, he allegedly got angry and threw a bottle of Gatorade at her.[11]