The Dodgers Have Made It Look Way Too Easy

The Dodgers have won two playoff series, but they aren’t undefeated. Remember that the Cubs beat them by a run in NLCS Game 4. Other teams have somewhat recently advanced to the World Series without having lost. Back in 2007, the Rockies swept the NLCS, after they swept the NLDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the Padres. And in 2014, the Royals swept the ALCS, after they swept the ALDS, after they took a one-game playoff over the A’s. The Dodgers are one of six teams in the wild-card era to make the World Series by going 7-1.

And it’s not like the Dodgers have even made every win a laugher. Their most recent game was kind of the exception. In Game 2 of the NLDS, they fell behind the Diamondbacks early. In the NLCS, they trailed the Cubs by a couple runs in Game 1, and in Game 2 Justin Turner won it in the bottom of the ninth. Some nails have been bitten. The Dodgers haven’t looked completely invincible.

On the other hand, they have looked completely invincible. When you look at the numbers overall, it seems like the Dodgers have coasted. They’ve turned this postseason into a statistical mismatch.

Look at the series the Dodgers just finished. No, the Dodgers didn’t win every game, and usually a sweep is the surest sign of dominance. But over five games, the Dodgers scored 28 runs. They gave up a total of eight. Dodgers pitchers recorded 53 strikeouts. For their hitters, 41. Dodgers pitchers issued only five walks. Their hitters drew 28. Think about this for a moment — the Dodgers’ pitchers allowed the Cubs’ hitters to post a collective OBP of .193. Dodgers hitters, meanwhile, had a combined OBP of .366.

Dodgers hitters reached base almost twice as often. Maybe there was a carryover effect — maybe the Dodgers felt sufficiently rested, while the Cubs were still taxed from having been pushed to the brink by the Nationals. Whatever the circumstances, the Dodgers didn’t just defeat the Cubs. The Cubs didn’t belong on the same field. One of the best teams in baseball was reduced to the fragments of the shell of itself. The Cubs were simply outclassed.

I have a plot for you. Throughout baseball playoff history, there have been 176 series that were either bests-of-seven or bests-of-nine. Here are the winners of those series plotted by OPS differential. On the x-axis, OPS for, within the series. On the y-axis, OPS allowed. The Dodgers-Cubs 2017 NLCS is highlighted in yellow.

Over the five games, spanning 196 trips to the plate, the Dodgers posted an .881 OPS, equivalent to what Edwin Encarnacion did in the regular season. Meanwhile, the Cubs batted 162 times, and Dodgers pitchers limited them to a .491 OPS, basically equivalent to what Tyler Saladino or Adam Engel did in the regular season. This year, the average batter posted a .506 OPS after falling behind in the count 1-and-2. That’s what the Dodgers did to their opponent. Their opponent who, for a few months, had played better than almost any other team.

I mentioned that there were 176 series. The Dodgers finished with an OPS differential of .390. That’s the very largest in the sample. By that measure, no long series has ever been so lopsided.

By slugging differential, the NLCS ranks fifth-highest. By OBP differential, second-highest. By batting-average differential, 10th-highest. Run differential per game, fifth-highest. Walk and strikeout differential, highest. The Dodgers and Cubs did play some tight games. Yet the Dodgers just almost never opened the door. Even in the Cubs’ sole win, it almost felt like a Dodger triumph was an inevitability. Wade Davis had to dig deeper than he ever had before.

So much of that has to do with the NLCS. Let’s once again recall that the Dodgers also swept Arizona. Over eight playoff games, the Dodgers have outscored their opponents 48 to 19. On a per-game basis, that’s good for a run differential of +3.6. The Dodgers have also outwalked their opponents by 32, while striking out 13 fewer times. On a per-game basis, that’s good for a walk and strikeout differential of +5.6. For context, here’s another plot, spanning the wild-card era, which goes back to 1995. This shows the Dodgers and every other team, through the league championship series. The Dodgers are the point in yellow.

The Dodgers have the highest per-game run differential out of anyone. That includes even the two teams who made it to the World Series without losing. The Dodgers rank second in walk and strikeout differential per game, but the only team ranked higher is the 2012 Rangers, who lost the wild-card game to the Orioles despite making more contact. In other words, of teams in the wild-card era who have reached even a single series, the Dodgers look the most dominant entering the title round. They’ve outscored their opponents by the most, and they’ve had the best plate discipline. It’s hard to imagine a team looking stronger.

If you want to be further encouraged, the next-best teams by per-game run differential are the 2007 Red Sox and the 2005 White Sox. Those teams each won the World Series in a sweep. On the other hand, the next-best team by walk and strikeout differential is the 2000 Mets, who lost the World Series, and the next-best team is the 2013 Tigers, who lost in the ALCS. And, those two teams who entered the World Series undefeated? The 2014 Royals lost to the Giants. The 2007 Rockies were no match for the Red Sox. You know how playoff momentum is. You can’t have more momentum than by going undefeated, but defeat might await even the strongest of teams. You never know what’ll make the difference. The Astros won a game over the Yankees on a play where Jose Altuve should’ve been out by 25 feet.

There’s nothing to be guaranteed about the series ahead. All that can be seriously analyzed is only what’s already happened. What’s already happened is that the Dodgers have stomped the Diamondbacks, and they’ve stomped the Cubs. They’ve won seven of eight games against talented opponents, and they’ve made it look easy, relative to how the playoffs usually go. Perhaps the Astros will give the Dodgers an actual test. That’s something the National League couldn’t do.