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Didi Gregorius Is in the Right Place and Time

Back when he was a minor leaguer, Didi Gregorius hit a combined total of 26 home runs. Gregorius is now the regular shortstop for the Yankees, who are a major-league franchise, and last week, he hit his 26th home run of this year alone, off of Ervin Santana. In Game 5 of the ALDS, Gregorius hit home run number 27, off of Corey Kluber. Two innings later, he hit home run number 28, also off of Kluber. Gregorius hits for power now, and while this feels like a fairly sudden development, it hasn’t been so sudden that Gregorius hasn’t been able to perfect the subtle bat flip. By now, Gregorius has hit enough home runs that he knows what they feel like right away.

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2017 NLDS Game 5 Live Blog

5:07

Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

5:07

Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to NLDS Game 5 Live Blog

5:09

Jeff Sullivan: Currently just trying to get my stream to actually work, so in the meantime, let’s entertain ourselves with some polls!

5:09

Jeff Sullivan:

Who do you think is going to win?

Cubs (70.2% | 165 votes)
Nationals (29.7% | 70 votes)

Total Votes: 235
5:09

Jeff Sullivan:

Who do you actually want to win?

Cubs (38.8% | 96 votes)
Nationals (61.1% | 151 votes)

Total Votes: 247
5:11

Jeff Sullivan: Well right now I’m being frustrated by my own technology so I hope you’re having fun!

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Let’s Watch Brett Gardner Work a 12-Pitch At-Bat

In the ninth inning of Game 5 on Wednesday night, Brett Gardner batted against Cody Allen for nine minutes. The Yankees were looking to add to a one-run lead, while the Indians were an out away from getting to give it one more try against the hardest-throwing pitcher in the world. Gardner batted with two runners on, and as his at-bat grew longer and longer, there was an increasing sense of urgency. Gardner batted for nine minutes after Todd Frazier had batted for five minutes, and it all meant that Aroldis Chapman was spending more time not throwing. More time cooling off. As Gardner saw pitch after pitch after pitch, insurance felt more and more critical. Chapman might come back out feeling too cold. You don’t want a pitcher sitting for half of an hour.

The last pitch was the twelfth pitch, and the twelfth pitch was fateful. Gardner lined a single into right, and since the count had been full, the runners were running. Aaron Hicks had no problem scoring from second, and to make matters worse for the Indians, an error allowed Frazier to also slide home. That last run was only salt in the wound; Hicks’ run felt like the killer. Although you can never know for sure, and although it was just last postseason that Chapman suffered a stunning blown save in the same ballpark, anything beyond a one-run margin felt insurmountable. For all intents and purposes, Brett Gardner ended the ALDS.

For Gardner, it was his longest plate appearance since 2014 — but for another 12-pitch at-bat he’d had in the fifth inning. For Allen, it was his longest plate appearance since 2012. It was the kind of at-bat that tempts you to read too much into it — to say things like, “there’s your proof that the Yankees don’t quit,” or “the Indians can never close anything out.” You shouldn’t give in. The at-bat didn’t mean anything larger. It was just an incredible at-bat, in a critical situation. And I’d like to go through it, pitch, by pitch, by pitch.

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The Playoff Strike Zone’s Always a Little Bit Bigger

The other day, I wrote about a silly mistake, where Jose Quintana threw a fastball over the middle to Trea Turner, and it was ruled ball one. It was a fluke, a freak accident, caused by Quintana missing his spot, Willson Contreras catching poorly, and home-plate umpire Fieldin Culbreth doing heaven knows what. I didn’t write it in an attempt to tear anyone down — I’m just delighted by the weird. It’s undeniably weird when a pitch down the middle isn’t ruled a strike. It’s not a good look for the game, but, outside of that, it’s always hysterical.

There’s nothing normal about a pitch like that being a ball. There’s no epidemic of umpires missing obvious strikes. And as I pointed out, in the very same at-bat, Culbreth granted Contreras and Quintana two borderline strikes that might’ve gone the other way. One could argue that, even in that one plate appearance, the Cubs got a better strike zone than the Nationals did. Interesting.

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The Nationals Might’ve Made Their Situation Worse

I’m not going to defend the Nationals for their miscommunication. Stephen Strasburg wasn’t going to start Game 4 against the Cubs, because he wasn’t available, and it was silly that he wasn’t available, and no one was really quite clear on why he wasn’t available, and now he is available, and he is starting Game 4 against the Cubs, and the game’ll start pretty soon. All’s well that ends well, right? The Nationals mistakenly created their own off-day drama. It’ll all be forgotten provided they play a good ballgame. We just needed something to carry us through the night.

It’s just — okay, Strasburg is going to start Game 4, now. He’s sucking it up, and he’s going to take the mound with the Nationals’ collective back against the wall. There are few pitchers to whom you’d rather hand the ball for a game with such high stakes. But even if the Nationals win Game 4, tomorrow they’ll have to play a Game 5. Strasburg won’t pitch. Max Scherzer would be available only out of the bullpen. The Nationals need to win two games, not one, and Strasburg was already going to get one of the starts. In part, maybe this is about Gio Gonzalez vs. Tanner Roark. Yet I still can’t shake the feeling like the Nationals might’ve just made things a little worse for themselves.

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Try to Tell the Difference Between Jake Arrieta and Tanner Roark

I have to admit to a bias. I’ve been aware of Tanner Roark since he entered the major leagues a few years ago, but my evaluation failed to evolve. In my head, Roark was still the guy he was when he made his first impression, as a strike-throwing and hittable sort who seemed to pitch with the intent of beating his peripherals. It is my job to try to know as much as I can, and I concede that this is my own failing, but in my partial defense, Roark hasn’t been close to the most interesting member of the Nationals’ pitching staff. Why would I choose to concentrate on Roark, when I could focus instead on Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg?

I have to admit to another bias. I find it tempting to believe that the larger population perceives things in the same way that I do. I haven’t kept up with Roark; therefore, I bet no one has kept up with Roark. Sometimes this gut feeling is correct. Sometimes, I’m just out of the loop. In any case, I’m about to put you all to the test. This isn’t going to be about me anymore.

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The Worst Called Ball of the Playoffs

In Monday’s pivotal Game 3, the Cubs beat the Nationals because Anthony Rizzo hit a stupid little doink. The inning before, the game was tied up when Albert Almora came off the bench to rip an RBI single. Almora hit for Kyle Schwarber, who had opened the door for the Nationals in the top of the sixth when two errors on the same play gave Daniel Murphy three bases. Almora hit for Schwarber because Dusty Baker relieved Max Scherzer with Sammy Solis for some reason. Scherzer was relieved immediately after allowing his first hit of his entire game, which was 19 outs old.

For a game that had only seven hits and three runs, there’s an awful lot there for people to talk about. The Cubs now find themselves in a commanding position, after coming uncomfortably close to getting shut out. There’s resiliency to discuss. Baseball luck. Managerial second-guessing. There’s almost everything you could possibly want. I’d like to discuss a called ball in the top of the fifth inning that didn’t matter for beans.

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The Eighth Pitch to Josh Reddick

In the wild and remote southeast corner of Oregon, tucked near to the eastern side of the Owyhee River, there’s a canyon that used to be known as Dugout Gulch. It was renamed Leslie Gulch in remembrance of Hiram E. Leslie, an area rancher who, in 1882, was struck by lightning. It wouldn’t be fair to say that getting struck by lightning was a habit of Leslie’s. He was no more likely to get struck than any other rancher in the region. Yet get struck by lightning, Leslie did. Well past a century later, it’s how we recall him today.

Josh Reddick has spent a career being unclutch. Greatly unclutch, incredibly unclutch, almost unfathomably unclutch. Ben Lindbergh wrote about it at the end of June. We have a win-expectancy-based Clutch metric on our leaderboards, and, since Reddick debuted, no hitter has a lower Clutch score. We actually have this stuff going back to 1974, and, since then, on a per-600-plate-appearance basis, Reddick currently stands as the least-clutch hitter out of everyone. He just edges out Ron Kittle and Richard Hidalgo. If you think that this is somehow misleading, it’s not. When Reddick has batted with the leverage low, he’s posted a 121 wRC+. When he’s batted with medium leverage, he’s posted a 99 wRC+. When he’s batted with the leverage high, his wRC+ has been 70. The history is all right there, inarguable. Josh Reddick has not exactly risen to the occasion.

This always seems to lead to the same conversation, about how clutch performance isn’t predictive. That’s true — it’s not. Or at least, it’s not easy to spot when it is. Possibly, or even probably, Reddick isn’t an unclutch hitter. But Hiram E. Leslie probably wasn’t lightning-prone. At some point, you’re just defined by what’s happened. It’s not easy for Reddick to erase his own record.

Yet days like Monday can help. Monday, in Boston, Reddick drove in the go-ahead run in the top of the eighth. The Astros went ahead by one, and the Astros finished ahead by one, having eliminated the Red Sox in four games. A number of different players all helped the cause, but in the eighth, with baseball’s most unhittable pitcher on the mound with two outs, the least-clutch hitter in decades knocked an RBI single the other way. The Astros found themselves on the verge of advance.

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Masahiro Tanaka Might One Day Kill the Fastball

A few years ago there existed a fun little game to play, brought to my attention by Sam Miller, I think it was. The instructions were simple: Follow a Justin Masterson start, and see if he’d go the duration without ever throwing anything other than a fastball. Masterson would live and die by his sinker, and while he wasn’t the only fastball-heavy starter around, he would sometimes take things near the one-note extreme. Depending on your perspective, it was a testament either to his talent or to his limitations.

I don’t remember if Masterson ever did it. It wasn’t the kind of game you’d play for the memories. But these days, you could play a very similar, if opposite game. You can follow a Masahiro Tanaka start, and see if he goes the duration without ever throwing anything other than a non-fastball. The odds are presumably slim, because every new start brings 90-some chances, yet Tanaka is trending in a certain direction. You could just ask the Indians last night.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 10/6/17

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:05
Jeff Sullivan: Which I…think…is going to be followed by Dave live-blogging the early game? Find out!

9:05
Bryan: What the hell happened to the Yankees last night?

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: They lost!

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: When you’re going up against part of the best pitching staff in at least modern baseball history, you’re probably going to look like you’re taking bad at-bats

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