Author Archive

The A’s Just Added a Cheap Breakout Slugger

Last year, the A’s couldn’t play defense. Matt Joyce isn’t really going to help with that. Last year, the A’s couldn’t keep their pitchers healthy. Matt Joyce isn’t really going to help with that. And, last year, the A’s couldn’t hit very much. Matt Joyce is probably going to help with that.

Here’s the deal — around this time of year, we write about a lot of transactions. We don’t write about every transaction, but we cover the majority of multi-year free-agent signings. Not every one of those signings is interesting. It took me forever to find something to say about Edinson Volquez, and I don’t even like the post that I wrote. Joyce has now signed with the A’s for two years and $11 million, meaning he got half of Volquez’s guarantee. Many of you have figured out this is a post about Joyce, and so you want to just leave and read anything else. But this one is interesting. Joyce is interesting. A few times during the season, I wanted to write him up, but I never got around to it. Now I have a reason, as the A’s might’ve found another cleanup hitter.

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Making Yoenis Cespedes Look Better

Yoenis Cespedes never really wanted to leave New York, and now he won’t have to. He’s re-signed with the Mets for four years, and it’ll cost the team $110 million and a no-trade clause. It’s the news of the day, and presumably the news of the week, as Cespedes was considered the best player on the free-agent market. Not even that long ago, one wouldn’t have expected the Mets of all teams to be able to make this sort of splash.

They say Cespedes makes an intangible impact. I don’t have much to say about that. They say Cespedes is the straw that stirs the Mets’ drink. I don’t have much to say about that. They say Cespedes might not age very well now that he has his long-term guarantee. I definitely don’t have much to say about that. I want to talk to you about the details. The stupid little crap that might only matter to readers of FanGraphs. Let’s talk about Yoenis Cespedes’ WAR, and how we might be able to make him look better.

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Edinson Volquez Is So Many Pitchers

The top priority for the Marlins is boosting the pitching staff that suffered a devastating blow upon the death of Jose Fernandez. That can’t be forgotten, but at the same time, it’s as good as unfair to other pitchers to lead with this, because Fernandez could have no suitable replacement. The Marlins were robbed of one of the greatest talents on the planet. The Marlins just signed Edinson Volquez. Volquez has his things he can do, but he’s a far cry from being a franchise cornerstone. The more the Marlins attempt to move on, the more we’re all reminded of what they’re trying to move on from.

The Marlins did need some kind of starter. Edinson Volquez is some kind of starter. They gave him two years and $22 million, even though last year Volquez had an ERA in the mid-5s. A couple years ago the Royals gave Volquez an almost identical contract following an ERA of 3.04. Behold the death of ERA! Anyhow, the analysis here is simple. The last three years, Volquez has averaged about 1.6 WAR. Plugging that into our contract tool and accounting for Volquez’s age yields an estimated two-year contract worth…$22 million. Super. What gets me here isn’t Volquez joining the Marlins. It’s the story of Volquez, and the story of many a live-armed starting pitcher.

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Was the Jean Segura Trade Really the Mitch Haniger Trade?

The Mariners, who are operating with a pretty short-term competitive window, added Jean Segura right before Thanksgiving. Segura has been driving the headlines, and it’s no mystery why. He finished last year with a 5.0 WAR, and, for the sake of reference, that tied him with Joey Votto. It put him in front of Xander Bogaerts. To go a little more traditional, Segura led the National League in hits by 10, ahead of Corey Seager. It was a breakthrough season for the 26-year-old, and his ability to play shortstop plugs what had been a glaring hole. There’s no question that Segura fits the profile of a headliner.

Many who’ve written about the Mariners’ side have written about Segura. Many of the quotes from Jerry Dipoto have been about Segura. But, at risk of sounding like Dave, I have to wonder — was Segura really the Mariners’ best get? Or will we eventually reflect on this as being the move that brought Seattle Mitch Haniger?

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Where Chris Sale’s Numbers Fell Off a Cliff

There’s no such thing as a bad reason to talk about the best players in baseball. Chris Sale is one of them, and it would make sense to write something about him just because. I mean, who doesn’t like to think about Chris Sale! Bring him up the next time you’re having a conversation with a baseball fan friend. It doesn’t even have to be a conversation about baseball itself. Just bring him up out of nowhere. Provided the other person knows who Chris Sale is, you’ll be able to observe the conversation get happier.

But, wouldn’t you know it, but Sale now is a popular topic. See, the White Sox might finally be ready to sell, and if they are, Sale could go in a blockbuster. As such, there’s additional reason to write about him. You know how good he is. You know his general profile. Weird delivery, workhorse, bit of an edge, favorable contract. Sale has as much value as almost anybody, and his numbers are pretty to look at. I’ve got a fun fact for you, related to those numbers. In one regard, Sale’s last two years have been something of a roller coaster.

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The Ongoing Rise of the Pitch-Framing Floor

The Hardball Times Annual. You should buy it! The whole thing is good, probably. I’m admittedly biased because I wrote for the damned thing. My topic this time around was pitch-framing, and the article appears in the book, and in the book only. Everything in there is a book exclusive. That’s the way books work.

Now, here’s the deal: In the interest of maximizing sales, I’m probably not supposed to cover ground I already covered in my essay. But as you’ve presumably heard, the Twins signed Jason Castro Tuesday afternoon, and there’s an angle here I don’t want to let pass by ignored. So, it’s time for some overlap. In the book, I talk about all of this theory stuff in greater detail. But Castro going to Minnesota only further raises the floor of the worst pitch-framing teams.

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The Most Dominant Pitcher in the Minors*

The most dominant pitcher in the minors pitched in the majors. But he didn’t pitch much, as a September call-up, and he wasn’t very good, and you probably don’t know him. He gave up a home run. Walked four and whiffed five. About a hit an inning. He wasn’t handling high-leverage assignments. For all intents and purposes, his big-league work was almost invisible.

And yet, the most dominant pitcher in the minors was extraordinarily dominant, in the minors. He is but 23 years old, and he isn’t going away. He’s not about to change anyone’s offseason plans. He’s not about to get dealt in a blockbuster. He’s a prospect. He’s a prospect who’ll get an extended chance to build on what he’s already done.

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The Season’s Worst Home Run

The season’s worst home run was a major-league home run. It was hit clean over a major-league fence, against a major-league pitcher, and it didn’t have to bounce off of the head of a major-league outfielder. The season’s worst home run was, objectively, more physically impressive than anything I’ve ever accomplished. I’ve climbed some tall mountains. It’s like walking up really cold and slippery stairs. Nobody would be amazed by anything I’ve done. I’m sitting here amazed that anyone can hit any major-league pitches.

So the point here isn’t to criticize. Everything in baseball is remarkable. But, very simply, there are better home runs, and there are worse home runs. Not all home runs are equally impressive, correct? It follows, therefore, that there would be a worst home run. A least-impressive impressive thing, if you will. Below, you get to see the worst home run of 2016. It was allowed by Chris Sale, and it was hit by Troy Tulowitzki.

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/18/16

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to Friday baseball chat

9:04
LudeBurger: If you’re late again, I swear to all holy heck…

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: I’m late literally every week

9:04
Bork: Hello, friend! Apologies for my absence last week.

9:04
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

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The Astros are Entering Baseball’s Upper Tier

The Astros had themselves a busy Thursday, picking up Brian McCann from the Yankees, and then signing Josh Reddick out of free agency. This is not intended as an overreaction to that. There’s no such thing as a team being “put over the top,” and the Astros haven’t been dramatically altered by adding a decent corner outfielder and a veteran catcher whose contract was partially paid down. The reality is that an awful lot was already in place. It’s just worth talking about what’s being constructed, instead of me focusing specifically on Reddick. The smaller story is that the Astros signed Reddick for four years and $52 million. The bigger story is that the Astros are entering the league’s upper class.

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