Author Archive

Come Predict the 2017 Standings

I know that I’m in the middle of another polling project. It’s not going to be an offseason full of polling projects. But this is a different idea, and it’s a little time-sensitive. So here we are!

I wanted to get this out and going before the offseason moves are really underway. We have already seen some minor transactions, but, there’s nothing I can do about that. Your assignment here is simple: For as many teams as you feel comfortable with, predict a 2017 win total. I do not mean predict a 2017 win total, based on how rosters are constructed today. I want you to predict a 2017 win total, based on what you think the rosters are going to look like. Think the White Sox, for example, are going to tear it all down? Vote accordingly. Think they’ll instead try to compete one more time? Vote accordingly! Think of this as a blended offseason prediction and regular-season prediction. Obviously we can’t predict all the moves teams are going to make, but it’s mostly easy to see what teams want to do. Let that drive you.

Thank you in advance for your participation. I’m running this for two reasons. One, it’ll just be fun to analyze in the short-term. But, two, it’ll also be fun to analyze at the end of spring training next March, when I ask you to predict the standings again. Then we’ll get to see who had the craziest offseasons, and who did what they were expected to do. For so many reasons, I can’t wait until spring. Thanks again, and have fun speculating!

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The Angels’ Path to Contention

Two relevant facts here are indisputable. One, in this most recent season, the Angels were bad. They won 74 games. By BaseRuns, they “should have” won 71 games. That made them about as good as the Twins and the Braves. Horrible season. Two, baseball fans love a blockbuster. It’s not even unique to baseball. Sports fans love a blockbuster. They love seeing them, they love thinking about them, and they love talking about them. Big trades might be even more exciting than big games.

Connect the points and you end up with Mike Trout trade proposals. The Angels narrative is being driven by the Mike Trout fantasy — that is, the fantasy of Mike Trout being available. This comes up in every one of my chats, and my chats aren’t special. As the reasoning goes, the Angels are bad, and they’re probably going to stay bad, so why don’t they trade Trout to re-stock an empty system? It’s actually kind of convincing. The Angels’ system is in legitimately bad shape.

Yet the major-league product isn’t so terrible. Something not enough people seem to understand: The Angels are under no obligation to blow things up. In large part because of Trout, the Angels are in half-decent shape. Perhaps even better than that. They have a real path to the playoffs as soon as next year.

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How Did You Feel About the 2016 Season? (Part 2)

Hello everybody, and welcome to Part 2 of this polling project. Here is a link to Monday’s Part 1, which dealt with teams in the American League. This is the National League half, so, if your favorite team or teams play in the NL, I would very much appreciate your subsequent participation! And if you like a team in the AL, but you missed the Monday post, you still have time to put in your vote before I get around to analyzing the results. This week is all about voting. The other votes you’ve made this week might come with greater stakes, but the individual votes here count for more. Be one of hundreds, after being one of millions!

This should all be simple. To effectively re-state from yesterday, I’m looking for a quick summary of your 2016 fan experience. For every NL team, there is a poll, and for every NL team poll, there are five possible answers. How did you feel about the season that was, when you consider as much as you feel like considering? What effect did the end have on the start or the middle? Are you easily excited by rebuilding movements? Did you just really love having season tickets for the first time? Don’t worry, you can’t get this wrong. Consider your feelings validated. Just let me know what those feelings are before you get on with the rest of your day.

All the polls are below. Click a team name to go straight to that part and bypass the others.

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How Did You Feel About the 2016 Season? (Part 1)

With all due respect to Cameron Maybin, Carlos Ruiz, and Vidal Nuno, the offseason isn’t really underway yet. Roster tweaks are being made, sure, but the blockbuster moves are some time off, and for the majority of people, the 2016 season remains fairly fresh in the memory. The World Series is less than a week in the rear-view mirror, so I wanted to seize this chance to run the same polling project I ran after the end of the 2015 season. It’s time for me to analyze your fan psychology. All I need is your collective participation!

This is a post for fans of teams in the American League. The National League post will go up early Tuesday morning. If your favorite team plays in the AL, please take a moment to provide your response. If both your favorite teams play in the AL, please take two moments. If all three of your favorite teams play in — you see where this is going. You’re not an idiot. You read FanGraphs.

This should be very simple. It’s also probably something you could overthink, but I just want to know how your fan experience was over the last several months. Did you have a good time with baseball in 2016? Did baseball beat the emotional crap out of you? Was your favorite team a disappointment? Is it even possible for your favorite team to disappoint? Did you love going to the ballpark no matter what, or watching a new game every evening? There are so many variables that could go into this, but I’m going to guess the right answer will come to you. I’ll analyze all the results later this week. Thank you in advance for being good and helpful people.

All the polls are below. Hopefully the anchor text works to send you to your team directly!

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Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 11/4/16

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friends

9:06
Jeff Sullivan: Welcome to offseason Friday baseball chat

9:07
Bork: Hello, friend!

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: Hello friend

9:07
Jeff Sullivan: You are always so prompt!

9:07
CamdenWarehouse: How does game 7 fit into the lessons about reliever usage in postseason?

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Cameron Maybin Is the Start of the Offseason

As a national writer, come playoff time, you end up with a skewed perspective. Just about all of your attention is concentrated on the playoffs, and so nearly all you’re writing about has to do with the playoffs. The easy assumption is that everyone out there is in the same boat, following along just like you are, but baseball is a game of regional interest, and the majority of teams quit after game 162. And then teams continue to drop out every week, until there are two, until there is one. The playoffs last for a month, and as a writer, they’re exhausting. For so many fans, though, that very same month is boring. You’re just waiting for the playoffs to end. Waiting so baseball can get on with things.

When I chatted during the postseason, I’d always get questions about when the offseason would begin. I’d get questions about free agents and trade rumors, even though I’ve been mostly prepared to talk about the Cubs and the Indians. So many of you have been looking ahead. So many of you have wanted to see what lies beyond, when all the games are over.

All the games are over. Cameron Maybin has been traded. The offseason is here. Welcome back.

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Mike Montgomery Did More Than Aroldis Chapman

The Cubs are the champions. There’s a rule about champions: the end justifies the means. There are no regrets, and, given a time machine, there’s nothing the team would want to undo, because every event, every decision led up to that final, most beautiful inning. A championship season is a delicate thing, and if you go back to adjust or remove one Jenga block, there’s no telling what causes a tower collapse. The Cubs won, so they’ll embrace how they came to win, for all of the good and all of the weird.

With that being said, we’ve seen something remarkable. *I* think it’s remarkable, anyway — your mileage might vary. Near the end of July, the Cubs made a low-profile trade, adding lefty Mike Montgomery from the Mariners. At the time, it looked like the Cubs might’ve gone for a cheap alternative to the premium-priced elites. A few days later, they paid said premium price for an elite, adding lefty Aroldis Chapman from the Yankees. The Chapman move was the more celebrated one, as all the championship dreams would go. With Chapman, the Cubs looked almost invulnerable. He could be the piece to put them over the top.

Yet in the end, Montgomery proved more valuable. By at least one measure, anyway. Chapman wasn’t what he was supposed to be. The Cubs won almost despite him.

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The Moment Before the Moment

The thing about hype is it makes the expectations almost impossible to meet. Hype is what makes you excited for an event, but then it’s up to the event itself to live up to the billing, and the standards can be impossible. Game 7 of a playoff series? That’s a high bar. Game 7 of the World Series? Higher bar still. Game 7 of a World Series featuring the two teams with the longest active title droughts? The hype spirals out of control. The game couldn’t possibly be what you’d want it to be.

That game was what you’d want it to be. Even if you weren’t rooting for the Cubs, you might never see a better baseball game. Maybe you’ve seen games that were as good, but you couldn’t top that, not for the drama, and not for how very Baseball it was. It was a one-run game that went to extra innings. The winning pitcher was the world-class reliever who blew a three-run lead. The losing pitcher wasn’t even supposed to have to pitch. The Cubs jumped out against the Indians’ unhittable ace, who for the first time was left in too long. The Indians clawed back with a two-run wild pitch that got by a catcher inserted specifically to help the pitcher on the mound. That same catcher, who’s now retired, then hit a home run off one of the only relievers who might be better than the Cubs reliever who later blew the save. Both teams used starters in relief. There was a rain delay and a bunt for a strikeout. The last out of the game was made by Michael Martinez. The final go-ahead run was scored by Albert Almora.

Almora scored on Ben Zobrist’s double. That made it 7-6, and Cubs fans were once again able to breathe. In a game packed full of moments, that might have wound up the moment, the moment that set the Cubs on their course. Before that moment, there was a different one. Almora scored on the double. He first had to get himself into position to do so.

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2016 World Series Game 7 Live Blog

4:53
Craig Edwards: I am here. I am sure Jeff Sullivan will be here soon. Game time is moved up to 7pm CT. Let’s get the questions going.

4:53
Craig Edwards:

Who are you rooting for tonight?

Chicago (56.1% | 178 votes)
Cleveland (43.8% | 139 votes)

Total Votes: 317
4:54
desertfox9139: my dad surprised me by stopping by to watch the game tonight. born in 1948. maybe a sign….

4:57
Zonk: Rain looks like it will be a factor tonight

4:57
Craig Edwards: Be glad it isn’t in Chicago. Been pretty miserable all day.

4:58
toki: Does Maddon pull a double switch when Lester comes in to put Ross behind the plate and keep Contreras in the game?

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The Argument for Starting David Ross in Game Seven

Unofficially, Game 6 was over in the blink of an eye. Officially, it wasn’t complete for three and a half hours, but from close to the start, most fans were thinking ahead to Wednesday. Even while Game 6 was going, Game 7 was on everyone’s mind, as we prepared for the most anticipated showdown in, what, at least 15 years? You’re on this site right now to read about baseball, but you’re not looking to read about the game in the books. You want to read about the finale. Nothing is ever as important as it is in the finale.

Game 7 presents a funny situation. It’s one game, so it could turn on almost literally anything. In Game 6, after all, the biggest point according to win expectancy was Addison Russell’s routine fly ball that somehow dropped between two outfielders. Who would’ve guessed? You can’t predict any one-game scenario. At the same time, it’s never more critical to maximize the odds. Strategic calls are at their most important. Bullpen usage is at its most important. Lineup construction is at its most important. There’s nothing after Game 7 but gray clouds and winter. Half of the players will have a happier winter than the others.

As that lineup construction goes for the Cubs — look, I don’t want to deceive you. This isn’t that critical. What I’m writing about probably won’t make the biggest difference. But I see a case for starting David Ross over Willson Contreras. It has a lot to do with a guy supposedly available out of the bullpen.

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