I know that we tend to exaggerate the meaning of the playoffs, which means we tend to exaggerate the meaning of playoff player performance. Regular players are made out to be heroes, superstars completing their development on the national stage. The playoffs make it easy to get swept away by anything. The increased focus on every single individual event allows for one to forget that all of these sample sizes are remarkably small. Through the middle of May, the Phillies had one of the best records in baseball. The Phillies were a bad team all along.

The point is: I get it. And, you get it. We all understand the postseason booby traps. And yet I need to share that Javier Baez is taking the playoffs over. Baez, already, was opening national eyes, and he owned the NLDS against the Giants. Sunday against the Dodgers, Baez authored a new chapter for his aggressively-growing legend. Not even very long ago, Baez felt risky and almost disposable. Now it’s difficult to see the Cubs winning without him.

Read the rest of this entry »

It’s convenient the way this worked out. In the worst-case interpretation, Javier Baez got away with something on Sunday. In the best-case interpretation, Baez might’ve taken advantage of a rule-book loophole. What Baez did provoked Dave Roberts to complain at least a little bit, but in the end, the Dodgers scored one run, and the Cubs scored less than that. Because the Dodgers won, Baez’s play doesn’t matter. So now we can talk about it a little bit without emotions threatening to take over.

In Game 2, Baez was praised for his casual on-the-fly brilliance, and it came up because of a double play he started in the top of the sixth. The play allowed for the Cubs to get out of a jam, keeping the deficit at the narrowest margin. The Dodgers wouldn’t have any real protest if Baez started a regular double play. But this double play started with Baez very much intentionally not catching a catchable baseball.

Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

Let’s pick it up in the bottom of the sixth, shall we? In a decisive Game 5, the Nationals held a 1-0 lead, and they were looking to stretch it. With two outs and someone on first who can run faster than you can, Ryan Zimmerman knocked a double to the left-field corner, and the Nationals’ third-base coach got aggressive. He waved Jayson Werth around, figuring that an insurance run would be absolutely massive. An out and, well, you tried, and you’ve still got the late lead. Werth gave it what he could.

That’s Werth at the bottom, running his tail off. Coach Bob Henley isn’t even looking anymore, now that the matter would be out of his hands. By this point he must’ve had a suspicion. Based on my calculations, the break-even rate here was 35%. That is, it made sense to send Werth around third if you thought he’d be safe at home at least 35% of the time. With the throw coming from just past third base, it looked like Werth would be safe at home about 0% of the time.

The camera has panned, and you don’t see the baseball. That’s because the baseball is in the glove of the catcher, and Werth is maybe, what, two-thirds of the way to the plate? Less than that? Werth is out. He’s so out. Baserunners are practically never this out. Werth is so out he might’ve given brief consideration to turning around. Until just a few years ago, a play that developed like this might’ve at least resulted in an exciting collision. Collisions are easy sells to the members of an average audience. Runners used to have one way out. That way was dangerous, and sometimes electrifying.

Werth stopped. He didn’t stay stopped — he went to the trouble of closing the distance. But Werth gave up. He was out, and he knew it, and he accepted it, and the Nationals still had the lead. So concluded a thrilling baseball sequence, by which a casual baseball viewer might not have been thrilled.

Read the rest of this entry »

This is the follow-up to the poll post I just ran. In that post, I surveyed the audience — that’s you! — to see which 2016 playoff teams you think are most likely to not make the playoffs a year from now. That goes toward addressing a question we get very often in late-season chats. There’s a related question we get almost as much: Which bad teams will make the playoffs a year from now? That’s what this poll post is about. Once again, there’s a poll at the end, and it allows you to select multiple options if you so choose.

I expanded beyond the usual group. Frequently, when I get this question, I’m asked about the teams that finished in last place. I wanted to include more teams, mediocre teams, so I set my cutoff at .500. The way I figure, it wouldn’t be a surprise if some half-decent 2016 team made the 2017 playoffs. It’s more surprising when you’re talking about a team or two that most recently lost more often than they won. Below, there are 14 teams, with small captions. When you’re through that, please vote! I’m not asking for your specific playoff odds. I just want to know who you think is most likely to make the playoffs, if any of these teams should make it at all. Forward we march.

Read the rest of this entry »

We run a lot of chats and live-blogs around here, and I find that there’s one particular question that consistently comes up every September and October. By that late in the season, either the entire playoff field has been determined, or it’s been almost determined, and there are always people wondering which playoff teams we think are due to struggle in the following summer. People seem to love teams in transition — those transitioning from bad to good, and those transitioning from good to bad. Maybe especially those transitioning from good to bad.

I’m going to tell you right here: This post isn’t about my opinions. I haven’t thought this question all the way through, and I probably won’t until we’re at least a part of the way through the winter. As far as my work responsibilities are concerned, the 2016 season is still alive, and I need to mostly focus on that. But I wanted to run this post for you, because I’d love to see what the audience thinks. At the end of this post is a poll, a poll that allows for multiple answers. I want to see which playoff teams the community thinks *won’t* make the playoffs in a year. I love to crowdsource, and it feels like it’s been a while since I’ve done it.

Before we get to the poll, of course, I’ll list the 10 playoff teams from 2016, along with a few sentences about what could lie ahead. I want to remind you again that the poll will allow multiple answers. I’m repeating this because our polls almost never do that, and I don’t want people to vote with the wrong idea about what they’re doing. Onward! To the playoff teams!

Read the rest of this entry »

The Indians finished the regular season fifth in total runs scored. They finished seventh in wOBA and sixth in wRC+, so it all kind of makes sense. The one thing that’s odd about it is that the Indians played pretty much the entire year without one of their best hitters. The Indians were 18th in runs in 2015, and then they lost Michael Brantley. As much as last year’s Brantley was slightly diminished, that still seemed like it should’ve been a massive blow.

For sure, this year’s Cleveland offense was powered by depth. It helped to have Jose Ramirez emerge in the way that he did. And there’s also the fact that the players can run — the Indians finished as easily the best baserunning team in the American League. There are so many different things that make the lineup tick, but there’s one aspect that isn’t talked about enough, one thing that makes the Indians out to be better than the sum of their parts.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Cubs just moved past the Giants in four games, and over those four games, Javier Baez batted .375, with a .974 OPS. He drove in the only run of Game 1 with a late and dramatic solo dinger, and he drove in the winning run of Game 4 with a late and dramatic line-drive single to center. Even given Baez’s offensive heroics, I’m going to remember him for one play he made in the field, a play that didn’t even ultimately result in an out.

A good number of ballparks across the country have setups where fans can try to throw pitches in front of a radar gun. On the primary level, it functions as fleeting entertainment — here, see how hard you can throw it, and we’ll even give you three chances. It’s a weird way to spend five dollars, but, how often does one get to be objectively measured? That part’s appealing, but there’s also a subliminal element. The radar gun works as an advertisement for the product on the field, because it isn’t until a fan gets measured that said fan begins to realize how extraordinary the players really are. It’s kind of a Dunning-Kruger thing; people happily underestimate the difficulty of throwing accurately, with speed. The worst pitcher in the major leagues is amazing. The worst pitcher in Single-A is amazing.

It’s been some years since I was measured, myself, and, granted, I didn’t exactly prepare. I also hadn’t pitched regularly since high school. But I did pitch, and I’ve got a long body, so you’d think I could do okay. When I stepped in, my first pitch was 68. My second chance sailed in at 71, and then I muscled up for my final, explosive delivery. It was also 71. I then returned to my seat, a little more sore than I used to be.

Yesterday, Javier Baez got to this Denard Span grounder up the middle.

It was enough that Baez got to the ball. It was enough that he handled it cleanly. But then Baez got to his feet — or, more accurately, his foot. Baez had his left leg off the ground. His right foot pointed to third base. He twisted his torso to throw the ball to first while airborne, all the while falling backward. Not only was Baez’s throw somehow on the money. The ball left his hand at 72 miles per hour. Javier Baez is amazing.

Read the rest of this entry »

I don’t think anyone expected that. Sure, the Indians always had a chance against the Red Sox, and having a chance means a shot at a series win, but no one would’ve forecast the Indians to move on with a sweep. The Indians produced against Red Sox pitching, scoring 15 times in three games. At least as importantly, the Red Sox didn’t produce against Indians pitching, scoring seven times while batting .214. The Indians, you remember, lost two of their three best starters toward the end of the year, and that seemed to spell almost certain doom.

But really, it shouldn’t have been taken that way. No one would want to lose Carlos Carrasco. No one would want to lose Danny Salazar. Both those guys would make the Indians a stronger playoff ballclub. But we just can’t get out of the habit of over-valuing a starting rotation. Especially come playoff time. Even though we all know the game in October is different, we just can’t quite get it to sink in. So the Indians’ playoff pitching staff was going to be underrated.

Read the rest of this entry »

There’s no such thing as a good way to lose in the playoffs, but the worst way might be getting swept in the first round. It also might not, I don’t know, but it can feel so unfairly abrupt. The Rangers spent six months working on building the best record in the entire American League. It all came to an end in three games. That quickly, the mental calendar flips, and after another year spent entertaining dreams of the World Series, it’s time now for the Rangers to think about the season to come.

And this promises to be a difficult offseason for them. In fairness, it’s always some kind of difficult offseason for everyone, every time. But the Rangers need to identify exactly where they stand. And there are going to be several holes for them to fill, with limited financial flexibility. Nothing about next year’s Rangers is guaranteed, and there’s work to be done if they want to even contend.

Read the rest of this entry »