Over the last decade, much of team behavior has, sooner or later, matched up with new sabermetric discoveries. The Athletics’ “Moneyball” focus on on-base percentage is no longer a secret; teams have begun to quantify the value of defense and spend accordingly; arbitration-eligible players have become more valuable on the trade market. But there is one area in which sabermetric findings quite clearly do not mesh with team behavior, regardless of general managerial regime: spending on relief pitching. At least using Wins Above Replacement, it just doesn’t make much sense. Whereas every non-pitching position on the diamond — as well as starting pitchers — make roughly the same amount per WAR, relief pitchers are on another level, frequently making three to four times more per WAR than other players.

This only doesn’t make sense, however, if we think of teams as buyers of WAR. They aren’t. The teams with the most WAR, although typically in a very, very good spot, will not necessarily win the most games. Teams buy real wins, and the best way we have to measure real wins is with Win Probability Added.

Read the rest of this entry »

The seemingly unending slow dance between the Minnesota Twins, the Colorado Rockies and Michael Cuddyer is over. As Matt Klaassen already analyzed, the Twins will probably be better off seeing other people in right field. For Terry Ryan and Minnesota, the attention now shifts back to another old flame: Jason Kubel. Kubel has already earned some interest from the Indians, and if Kubel leaves Minneapolis, the Twins can pick up a third compensatory draft pick to go with the two the Twins pick up with Cuddyer’s departure. But reports say the Twins could be looking to keep Kubel for next season instead.

Between Denard Span, Ben Revere, Josh Willingham, Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, Chris Parmelee, and Trevor Plouffe, the Twins appear to have the outfield, first base, and designated hitter spots covered. If the Twins really love Jason Kubel — and, more importantly, if they really love long-term assets — they should set him free.

Read the rest of this entry »

For a time, Jed Lowrie was one of the ultimate Red Sox prospects, potentially the perfect shortstop of the future. On Wednesday, that fine dream ended as the Boston Red Sox dealt Lowrie to the Houston Astros along with Kyle Weiland in exchange for Mark Melancon. There are plenty of factors which went into this trade, as already covered — Lowrie has struggled with injuries and defense, the Red Sox need relief pitching with Jonathan Papelbon gone. But as great as any of the factors appears to be their shortstop of the present, who for the past three seasons has done about as much as anybody can ask from the position.

I am referring, of course, to Marco Scutaro. The incumbent Red Sox shortstop may not be a household name, but Scutaro ranks seventh in wRC+ at 104 and eighth in WAR at 9.8 among shortstops since 2009. The Red Sox expect more of the same in 2012, and that makes Jed Lowrie expendable.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last season, it was a common point of view that Yuniesky Betancourt and the Brewers’ massive weakness at shortstop would be the doom for Milwaukee’s bid at competitiveness. As bad as Betancourt was, the real reason the Brewers needed a 22-3 stretch in August to overtake the St. Louis Cardinals for the National League Central crown was the struggles of Casey McGehee at third. McGehee put up an atrocious .223/.280/.346 line — a 68 wRC+ — and was eventually replaced by Jerry Hairston Jr. come the playoffs.

The Brewers moved earlier to fill their need at shortstop, signing Alex Gonzalez to a one-year deal with a vesting option. Today, the Brewers completed the left side of their 2012 infield, adding Aramis Ramirez on a three-year deal worth somewhere between $34 million and $37 million — that is, you the readers were pretty dang close.

Read the rest of this entry »

First it was Heath Bell, at $27 million. Then it was Jose Reyes, at $111 million. Jeffrey Loria’s team isn’t done spending. Wednesday, the newly-branded Miami Marlins pulled the trigger on a third big-name free agent signing, reeling in Mark Buehrle from the White Sox on a four-year, $58 million contract.

Read the rest of this entry »

The magic of the Winter Meetings continued late into the evening on Day Two, with the Mets and Giants agreeing to the first trade of the meetings. The two teams agreed on a swap of center fielders coming off a bad year, with Angel Pagan heading to San Francisco in exchange for Andres Torres as well as reliever Ramon Ramirez.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Albert Pujols-Miami Marlins contract negotiations are heating up, and at this point it seems more than a possibility that El Hombre could be among the first to don a uniform with Miami across the chest in 2012. Pujols alone does not a winning team make — he cannot turn a team of replacement level scrubs into a 90-win squad. Still, his exceptional talent could give the Marlins a quick path to the playoffs, even relative to the other stars the Marlins have been eyeing this winter.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers kicked off their activities at the Winter Meetings by scooping up another veteran pitcher for their rotation. This time, it was another former NL Central tosser, as Los Angeles signed Aaron Harang to a two-year contract on Monday. The terms for the 33-year-old right-hander have not been released yet, but it is thought that the deal will be backloaded — similar to Chris Capuano’s contract, which was signed last week.

Read the rest of this entry »

Colorado remade its catcher position Wednesday night with a tandem of moves. The first, as analyzed by Chris Cwik, sent Chris Iannetta to the Angels for starting pitcher Tyler Chatwood. The Rockies will replace Iannetta at backstop with the second move, the signing of Ramon Hernandez to a two-year, $6.5 million contract.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Royals can finally see the light at the end of the tunnel. The upcoming season may not be the first one since 1985 to see a Kansas City club make the playoffs, but 2011 showed there is exciting talent on hand. The offense scored 730 runs last season and posted a 102 wRC+ despite relying largely on young players. But the pitching… let’s not talk about the pitching.

Dayton Moore has already brought in Jonathan Sanchez as the first piece to a rebuilt Royals pitching staff. Today, he made his second move, bringing in another former NL West Jonathan, signing former Dodger Jonathan Broxton to a one-year deal worth $4 million and another $1 million possible via incentives.

Read the rest of this entry »