Albert Pujols Can Create Contenders
The Albert Pujols-Miami Marlins contract negotiations are heating up, and at this point it seems more than a possibility that El Hombre could be among the first to don a uniform with Miami across the chest in 2012. Pujols alone does not a winning team make — he cannot turn a team of replacement level scrubs into a 90-win squad. Still, his exceptional talent could give the Marlins a quick path to the playoffs, even relative to the other stars the Marlins have been eyeing this winter.
Obviously, Pujols’s sheer talent starts this path. He has been worth at least 5 WAR in all 11 of his big league seasons and at least 8 WAR seven different times. Even in last year’s down season, he recorded a 148 wRC+. His career mark sits at a stunning 167, and I don’t think there should be much doubt as to his ability to reach that mark again. Once he returned from his wrist injury in the second half, he went off, hitting .319/.375/.584 and then adding an excellent postseason performance which included five more home runs in 18 games. I think he’s fine, and his career path is still right on track with the best of the best:
Source: FanGraphs — Albert Pujols, Hank Aaron
Hank Aaron has him by a sliver now, but Pujols is doing just fine by this measure.
Still, the 5-10 wins Pujols may add over a replacement player don’t get the Marlins into the playoffs last season, and even with an extra four from Jose Reyes, the Marlins still look like an 82-87 win team without some more improvements — that is, they’re still sitting well behind Philadelphia in the National League East and they probably need some luck to grab the NL Wild Card, which usually checks in around 90 wins.
Now, the Marlins may be a better team behind Pujols and Reyes than last year’s 72-90 record suggests, but the Marlins still need to fix a couple of holes even if they can land Albert. Here is the second way Pujols’s exceptionally rare talent level can blaze a trail to the playoffs — low-level teams who add the same amount of wins via four or five players typically run out of places to improve. A hypothetical Marlins acquisition of Pujols significantly increases their quality at first base, but they still need help in center field and with their pitching staff. There would still be plenty more places for the Fish to add victories before calling it an offseason and going to war with Philadelphia, Atlanta, and the rest of the National League.
The sheer talent level of Albert Pujols and the results he produces on the field make him a gamechanging player for any team who would add him. But beyond that, the scarcity of players who can do so much in just one roster spot gives the team with his rights an incredible amount of flexibility with the other 24. As much as baseball has been made into a game of “How much production can I get with this much money?” it is also a game of “How many wins can I squeeze out of 25 roster spots?” When one of those roster spots is occupied by one of the league’s top players, and arguably its singular top player, the latter question nets a much more appetizing answer.
Jack Moore's work can be seen at VICE Sports and anywhere else you're willing to pay him to write. Buy his e-book.
Love the title.
I know that this shouldn’t put a ton of stock in this, but the following things should also help the Marlins win total:
A full productive year from LoMo.
Nolasco improving in just the slightest.
More than 9 Starts from JJ
Hanley remembering where he dropped his bat.
I know the Marlins have some great regression candidates (Yes, I am talking to you Bonifacio), but the Marlins have a talented roster as is and should be almost a lock for a .500 season with or without Pujols in my opinion.
you forgot about josh johnson
lol im stupid
“More than 9 Starts from JJ”
to be honest kevin I thought he was talking about the jet plane
Using his slipstream correctly he could probably create some truly nasty movement on his pitches. Though he would probably be better off in the AL where he doesn’t have to bat.
I tend to agree with this analysis, but I thought Matt Swartz, among others on this site, have argued against some sort of non linear war-dollars curve.
I can’t believe, as an aside, that the marlins might get away with only offering 200 for pujols. How is he not worth a full 100 million more than jayson werth, ryan howard or carl crawford?
He hit the market at the wrong time. That simple.
NL East turning into a war zone.
Mets surrender.
I find it awesome how linear that graph is
Dave Cameron posted an article not two months ago with evidence espousing linear dollars per win still holds, so unless I’m mistaken there is some clashing here.
No clash at all.
Dave was not discussing true value. He was discussing market value. The market has spoken on this issue. Players get a linear increase in salary per win, despite the increased advantage and rarity of getting more wins from one position.
The likely explanation is the downside risk due to injury from that one position.
You can argue it’s a market inefficiency if you like (and I would agree), but it’s just a fact that teams don’t pay more than the linear increase.
I love Ossie Guillen’s comment on the full price vs the value of Pujols, especially in the out years, “I only signed a four year contract”. If he goes to the Marlins, at least that will prevent the Cardinals from committing suicide by signing Pujols.
But figure how much Hanley’s WAR will go up by with him playing 3B instead of SS and bouncing back next year and add that in. Add that to Pujols and Reyes I could see the Fish getting 90 wins and contending.
I’m concerned about his 5% decline in walk rate last season. He did seem to be swinging at more pitches out of the zone and making weaker contact with an increased GB%.
Often forgotten in the Sabermetric number crunching is the number of tickets a team can sell as a result of a free agent signing. The GM and the manager might concentrate on wins, but the owner and the marketers certainly think about dollars, too.
However, a team in a new stadium is certainly expected to sell out for the first year or two of the new ballpark. I don’t see Pujols’ 2011 signing drawing many people to the ballpark in 2014 outside of his contributions to the team on the field.
I don’t expect the Marlins to sell out even for their first two years. If they manage ONE sell-out in the new stadium in its first year, I’ll be mildly impressed.
this is a bit off topic… while aaron is definitely an eeriliy similar comp, b-ref’s other 9 “through age 31” comps aren’t quite as encouraging. even if you replace gehrig with ruth, historical comparison (fwiw) says the odds of pujols maintaining high performance levels beyond his age 36 season (or age 38 season if you indulge in unsubstantiated rumor and innuendo) just aren’t great.
i mean, if the plan for miami isn’t to “go for it” in the 2012-2014 window, then what is the plan?
ps that’s not to say he won’t be worth his contract. i suspect he will be worth his contract from his performance the first 5 years and the butts he puts in the seats as he chases down 756 in the latter half of the deal.
so if you add in pujols’ WAR, Reyes’ WAR, at least 20 starts from JJ, Hanley moderately bouncing back, LoMo getting a full season, Anibal Sanchez and Nolasco staying or improving, and some regression from guys like bonifacio, the fish should at least have a mid 80 win team, if not more. and they may close in on 90 wins if they can trade gabby sanchez for a decent starter. add in a bit of luck and they could be playing in october.
“…it is also a game of “How many wins can I squeeze out of 25 roster spots?” When one of those roster spots is occupied by one of the league’s top players, and arguably its singular top player, the latter question nets a much more appetizing answer.”
Not to be rude, but isn’t this really obvious? You’re basically saying that having the best player in baseball on your team makes your team a lot better. Right?
Yeah, but until WAR was available, we couldn’t be sure that having Pujols made your team better. Now we KNOW IT!
😛
Yah, up until WAR, he sucked. Now he’s great though, and it’s all thanks to WAR! Thanks, WAR!
This has to be sarcasm. It’s also funny.
Gaby Sanchez was worth 3 WAR last year. If Pujols comes to Miami, he won’t be taking the spot of a replacement level player. Even a 6 WAR season would only be 3 wins better than the Fish got at that position last year.
But if they can trade him for something, then they got something.
Unless Gaby Sanchez can be traded for a similar player at a position where they have a 0 WAR player, like a starting rotation spot or center field.
I’m just saying, but if a team’s WAR total never adds up anywhere close to their actual wins, why would a player’s WAR total be the wins that they would add to the team?
“Wins Against Replacement”
Because a team full of replacement-level players would still win 40-45 games. Add that to the sum of the players’ WAR and you get a good baseline for the number of games a team should win.