Here’s a quick summary. Johnathan Sanchez and Tim Hudson threw gems, with the only run of the first seven frames coming off a Braves error. The Atlanta offense sputtered until Eric Hinske dumped a two-run home run just over the right field fence. The Giants offense rallied with two outs to tie the game off fill-in Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel, but it looked like the game would only be tied heading into the Braves’ half of the ninth. Instead, a grounder off the bat of Buster Posey found it’s way through the legs of Brooks Conrad – the second baseman’s third error of the day (videos here) – and the Giants took a 3-2 lead. They would not relinquish it, as Brian Wilson worked around a two out single to finish the game.

As much as the pitching performances and the clutch home run by Hinske are stories in themselves, the real story will be the terrible performance by Brooks Conrad. Conrad was 0-3 at the plate for a -.116 WPA, including a failed bunt attempt in the top of th 8th inning down by one run. His fielding performance, however will go down as historically bad, as two of his three errors were at least partially responsible for two of the three runs scored by San Francisco tonight.

The first error came in the first inning, as Conrad couldn’t handle a ball off the bat of Freddy Sanchez, resulting in two on and nobody out. We can’t assume the double play here, particularly because the runner on first, Andres Torres, was off with the pitch, but recording the out at first would’ve resulted on only the runner on second and one out instead. According to the WPA Inquirer – a tool that will be used throughout this post – that error cost the Braves 7.3% in terms of win expectancy, or a -.073 WPA for Conrad.

The second one wasn’t significantly more costly, but it did directly result in the first Giants run. In the second inning with none out and a runner on third, Conrad dropped a fly ball off the bat of Cody Ross, allowing Mike Fontenot to score and Ross to reach first base. According to the announcing crew, Fontenot hadn’t tagged up on the play, which would mean that the result of a catch would’ve been a runner on third, one out, and a tie game. That difference comes out to an 8.4% drop in win expectancy for the Braves – at third base and with only one out, there’s still a high probability that Fontenot would have scored. That puts Conrad’s total defensive WPA to this point at -.157, already an impressive total for a whole game, much less two innings.

The third one is the one that will stick in the minds of Braves fans and all others who watched this game unfold. The grounder off the bat of Posey found its way under Conrad, scoring Sanchez from second and allowing Aubrey Huff to go from first to third. If Conrad makes the play, then the inning is over and the game moves to the bottom of the ninth tied at two. It’s hard to overstate the importance of this play. If the out is made, the Braves carry a 62.6% win expectancy into the last half-inning. Instead, the Braves were down to a mere 14.7% win expectancy as Sanchez crossed the plate and with more threats on the bases. That expectancy, in reality, should be even lower due to the presence of Brian Wilson in the San Francisco bullpen. Lowering the run environment to three runs per nine innings results in an 11.8% win expectancy for Atlanta. Effectively, Conrad’s error lowered the Braves chances of winning from 5 in 8 to somewhere between 1 in 7 and 1 in 9.

Conrad’s total defensive WPA in this game comes in at a staggering -.635. That number, combined with his -.116 batting total, comes out to a total WPA of -.751. Brooks Conrad cost the Braves 75% of a postseason victory, one which would have put them one victory away from the next round of the playoffs. Conrad’s play tonight, particularly if the Braves don’t come back to win this series, will go down as one of the worst playoff performances of all time.

Tomorrow night at Yankee Stadium, the Twins will face their first true must-win game of the season. It doesn’t matter what the pundits said during the regular season; it doesn’t matter who wrote an alarmist column after a losing streak. In the regular season, there was always a next game for the Minnesota Twins. If they come up short in New York on Saturday night, the next game for the Minnesota Twins Baseball Club will be on April 1st, 2011, and that will surely be a different team, with certain moving parts shuffled out and new acquisitions inserted. This is not a “must-win” game in terms of some sort of abstract momentum or for team morale. No, this is about survival, about an entity that will cease to exist if the game is lost.

The Twins will send relatively unknown lefty Brian Duensing to the mound. Despite a lack of exposure, Duensing has had a solid season. In only 130 innings, Duensing picked up 1.7 WAR, mostly thanks to great control but also an ability to keep the ball on the ground. Duensing doesn’t strike out many batters – only 5.4 per nine innings – but he walks fewer than 2.5 per nine and his 53% ground ball rate keeps the ball in the yard. Duensing has a pretty basic repertoire, using a low-90s fastball, a slider, a changeup, and, sparingly, a curveball, and according to our pitch type values, they were all relatively successful, at or above league average. Particularly deadly was the slider, which came in at a whopping 14.3 runs above average for the whole season and +3.9 runs per 100 thrown. The raw total is 13th among all MLB pitchers; among starters, only Mark Buehrle tops Duensing’s per-pitch mark.

The slider is typically a powerful pitch against same handed hitters, and so, unsurprisingly, Duensing does exhibit a marked platoon split. Lefties have only a .231 wOBA against a .327 wOBA for righties. This comes in only 243 and 651 batters faced respectively, and so we should expect a platoon split somewhere between the league average of 20 points and the nearly 100 points observed so far. Still, Duensing’s reliance on a nasty slider does suggest that he may be a lefty killer, and the fact that his slider wouldn’t work as well against right handed batters would support a large platoon split.

That means that neutralizing righties will likely be a key for Duensing, and that means neutralizing Derek Jeter, Mark Teixeira, Alex Rodriguez, Jorge Posada, Nick Swisher, and Marcus Thames.

With that kind of lineup, even though Duensing is talented, the Twins will have to score some runs. They finally will get a game against a right handed pitcher in Phil Hughes, which should help Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, Denard Span, and Jason Kubel. Of course, Hughes is a good pitcher himself, but the Twins lineup is designed to hit right handed pitchers, and at the New Yankees Stadium, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a home run or two from the Twins powerful lefties, particularly Thome.

The bullpen for Minnesota should be well rested. Nobody threw multiple innings on Thursday, and Brian Fuentes, who threw 1.2 IP on Wednesday, will have two full days of rest. Jon Rauch, Matt Capps, Matt Guerrier, Jose Mijares, and Fuentes – the key pieces of this Twins bullpen – should all be good to go tomorrow.

Francisco Liriano pitched like an ace and was in line for the win through five innings. Unfortunately for the Twins, there are nine innings in a baseball game, and after the sixth inning, things came unraveled and the New York Yankees took control.

Michael Cuddyer’s two run home run, a small-ball special run scored by Orlando Hudson, and Liriano’s five shutout innings left the Twins with an 85.1% win probability entering the sixth inning. The Twins slow and excruciating fall from grace came primarily on two pitches. The first came on a two out Curtis Granderson triple in that sixth inning which took nearly 30% off the Twins win probability, lowering it to 36.5%. The Twins managed to tie the game on possibly the unlikeliest bases-loaded walk in postseason history (Danny Valencia off CC Sabathia). The Twins bullpen couldn’t hold the tie, though, as Mark Teixeira deivered what would be the death blow in the 7th with a two-run, barely fair home run off Jesse Crain. The Yanks took a 6-4 lead and the Twins win expectancy was down to 21.5%. The Yankees bullpen proceeded to close the door on game one, primarily behind a four-out save from the legendary Mariano Rivera.

For the Twins, Liriano simply couldn’t get past the third time through the order. The first two times through, Liriano struck out five batters and allowed only four baserunners. The third time through – entirely in the sixth inning – the Yankees went 4-7 with a walk against Liriano and scored four runs.

At the plate, the Twins left handed batters were mostly neutralized. Denard Span, Joe Mauer, Jim Thome, and Jason Kubel combined to go 2-15 with three walks and a hit by pitch. The first three names in particular comprise much of the Twins offense, and even the solid performances from Michael Cuddyer (2-4, HR, +.153 WPA) and Danny Valencia (1-3, BB, +.219 WPA) couldn’t provide enough offense to top the Yankees. The Twins lefties missed chances in both the 7th and 8th to tie or take the lead. Both innings saw two runners on and two outs, but neither Jim Thome nor Denard Span could reach against the Yankees bullpen.

Outside of Crain, the bullpen was solid. Brian Fuentes, Jose Mijares, and Jon Rauch combined for three scoreless- and baserunner-free innings. Fuentes pitched 1.2 innings and may be unavailable for tomorrow’s game. None of the other pitchers threw more than an inning and should be ready for action tomorrow.

There has been a negative reaction regarding Ron Gardenhire’s decision to bunt with Orlando Hudson up and a runner on in the first inning. Indeed, the successful bunt resulted in -.018 WPA for the Twins and Sabathia managed to retire Joe Mauer and Delmon Young to end the inning without allowing a run. But Gardenhire would have to call for this move over 50 times for it to cost him a full win (admittedly, this is not outside the realm of possibility). Personally, I would’ve preferred the aggressive play in allowing Hudson to swing away, but we also can’t ignore the possibilities of results such as a bunt single or a reach on error. The bunt probably isn’t a good play there, but it hardly cost the Twins the game and it is a defensible call in a low run environment.

Finally, we close with…

THE CRAIG SAGER SUIT WATCH

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The Twins have plenty of quality players who will get their due attention as the American League Divison Series unfolds. I suspect that J.J. Hardy might not be one of those players, and he most certainly hasn’t received the credit he is due for his performance on the field this season.

A large part of this is probably due to a slow start. Hardy posted OBPs below .290 in both April and May and missed large chunks of both May and June, playing only a combined 15 games in those two months. Hardy hit his stride in the second half of the season, however, posting a .304/.363/.429 line over the last three months. Overall, Hardy hit .268/.320/.393, eerily similar to his career line of .263/.323/.423 – the 30 point difference in slugging percentage can be easily explained by the cavernous Target Field. Hardy’s wRC+ this season ended at 96 against a career average of 98.

Hardy’s 96 wRC+ actually comes within 3 points of all the other American League leaders at SS (Cliff Pennington, Derek Jeter, Marco Scutaro, and Alexei Ramirez all fall between 95 and 99) besides Alex Gonzalez, whose numbers trailed off quite a bit after a trade to the Atlanta Braves. Although Hardy can hit a little, the majority of his value comes from his stellar defense at this premium position.

The scouting report from Brewerfan.net nails it on Hardy’s defense.

J.J. has excellent range at shortstop, more due to pure instinct than quick feet. He puts away virtually everything he gets to, and has a strong and accurate arm. His defense would have played in the majors the day he was drafted.

The fantastic range is why Hardy is rated highly by every defensive metric available today. Over about 4.5 full seasons, UZR rates Hardy as a +41 SS, DRS rates him as +38, and TotalZone rates him at +23. Regardless of which one you choose, Hardy has provided fantastic value as a solid glove shortstop, and both the scouting reports and the eye test back that up.

Hardy might not have been as good as his +8 UZR suggests in such a small sample, but the fact that he put up 1.6 WAR in 375 plate appearances before factoring in defense is enough to merit a look. Throw in the fact that a +8 UZR in that sample is legitimately attainable for somebody with Hardy’s defensive prowess, and you have a shortstop that could arguably be the best remaining in the playoffs.

For the fourth time this millennium, the American League Division Series will feature the Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankees. The last three times, this matchup has resulted in a Yankees win. The Yankees are largely considered the favorites, with a -180 moneyline to win the series according to BoDog as of this writing. However, the talent spread between these two teams is nowhere near this large, and we should expect a tightly contested series from game one.

This first game will feature my personal selection for the American League Cy Young on the mound for the Twins and the winner of the 2010 AL Comeback Player of the Year Award: Francisco Liriano. Liriano has turned into a bonafide ace for the Twins staff, posting a 3.62 ERA and even better peripheral numbers, including a 2.66 FIP and a 3.06 xFIP. Basically, Liriano excels in every controllable aspect of pitching, striking out over a batter per inning, walking less than three per nine innings, and allowing one home run only about every two full games. He keeps the ball on the ground (53.6% GB rate) and induces swings and misses at a lofty 12.6% rate.

The left handed Liriano will face a powerful Yankees lineup that is deep from 1-9. Liriano will have the platoon advantage against the Yankees emergent second baseman Robinson Cano as well as the bottom end of their order in center fielder Curtis Granderson and left fielder Brett Gardner. The best hitters in the Yankees lineups, at least according to CHONE projections, are Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez. The switch hitting Teixeira and the right-handed Rodriguez will both own the platoon edge over Liriano. Even if he can get past that duo, however, he won’t be out of the woods – CHONE projects every single starter in the Yankees lineup as an above average hitter.

The Twins lineup, quite formidable as well. Ron Gardenhire “hinted strongly” that he wouldn’t stray from his game 162 lineup in the playoffs, a lineup which looked like this:

CF Denard Span
2B Orlando Hudson
C Joe Mauer
LF Delmon Young
DH Jim Thome
1B Michael Cuddyer
RF Jason Kubel
3B Danny Valencia
SS J.J. Hardy

There’s no Justin Morneau here, but this lineup is still good top to bottom. The only below average hitters by CHONE here are Hardy, who makes up for it with top-tier defense at shortstop, and Valencia, who may not maintain a .345 BABIP but has put up an excellent 122 wRC+ so far as a MLB player. Mauer is possibly the best hitter in this whole series, and even without the pop that made his magical 2009 MVP season, he still managed a 136 wRC+ in 2010. Thome, of course, has been one of the league’s best stories, and his massive power makes him a threat every time up. Delmon Young still never walks but is another legitimate power threat, and Jason Kubel functions as a kind of Thome-lite at the plate. Denard Span and Orlando Hudson set the table well for the middle of the order and have a bit of pop by themselves as well.

Thome, Kubel, Mauer, and Span will all give up the platoon advantage to New York starting pitcher CC Sabathia. Of that quartet, only Span has exhibited reverse platoon splits. Sabathia should be able to attack the other three, a trio which comprises much of the power of the Twins lineup. However, should the first three hitters manage to find their way on, it will be in front of right handers Young and Cuddyer, who will have the platoon advantage and thus may be key for the Twins in game 1.

This game marks the inaugural postseason game at Minnesota’s Target Field. In order to bring home a win, the equation for the Twins is simple: get some support for Francisco Liriano and let the ace go to work. Liriano will be the real story on Wednesday night – he’s the ace of the staff making his first postseason start against the mighty Yankees. If he can get it done with just a little support from his hitters, the Twins should be looking at a series lead heading into game two.

In the minor leagues, Cincinnati Reds center fielder Drew Stubbs hit 28 home runs in 1847 plate appearances, a rate of just over nine every 600 PAs. Stubbs posted a SLG over .425 and an ISO over .155 just once, in a 19-game stint with AAA Louisville in 2008. Just looking at those numbers, Stubbs’s Major League performance so far is surprising, particularly his first full season with Cincinnati this year. Stubbs has slugged 30 home runs in 779 MLB plate appearances, including 22 in 583 this season. He posted a .444 SLG and a .189 ISO as well, both above the respective MLB averages of .403 and .145.

We definitely have to acknowledge Great American Ballpark when discussing the power stats of Stubbs or any other Reds player. Stubbs hits right handed, and according to StatCorner, the park factor for home runs for right-handed batters in Cincinnati is a whopping 133, highly favoring hitters. That might make Stubbs more of a mid-teens home run hitter than a low-twenties home run hitter, but he was a sub-10 HR player in the minors. The effects of his home park don’t fully explain Stubbs’s power boost with the Reds.

Since there’s really nothing in the numbers to fully explain this boost – no low-minor power numbers and no trend towards power either – we have to look elsewhere for an explanation. Stubbs just turned 26 today (happy birthday, Drew!) and is in only his second MLB season and his fifth professional season. The best place to look for data, particularly to supplement his minor league numbers, would then be scouting reports.

First, John Sickels of Minor League Ball.

Drew Stubbs was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in the first round in 2006, from the University of Texas. The eight-overall pick in the draft, Stubbs showed excellent tools and a power/speed combination in college, but he also showed a propensity to strike out. Some scouts worried that his long swing might not translate well against pro pitching, but his athleticism was too much for the Reds to pass up.

Reds fans want to know: was Stubbs’ power outburst in the majors for real? Given the perils of sample size, it’s hard to say. His batting average, OBP, steals, and defense were exactly in line with expectation. He’s quite strong physically and has shown sparks of power before, but my guess is that we’ll see him regress somewhat in 2010, putting up something like a .260/.330/.400 line.

Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus was slightly more bullish on Stubbs on multiple occasions, stating that he saw Stubbs as a similar hitter to Mike Cameron, a player with eight 20+ HR, although that 15-20 HR seasons may be more of the norm for Stubbs.

Baseball America comes to similar conclusions. In this prospect ranking post, Stubbs is described as having “above-average raw power” and his power surge with Cincinnati in 2009 is considered “unsurprising.” In this post on the top 10 organizational prospects, J.J. Cooper claims that Stubbs can be a high home run hitter if he takes some strikeouts, which he certainly has done at the MLB level, striking out in 28.8% of plate appearances.

This is only a small sampling of scouting information, but all of it seems to support Stubbs having more power than he showed in the minor leagues. Combine that with a favorable home park, and 22 HR years like 2010 aren’t quite the anomaly that they looked before. Drew Stubbs looks like a home run hitter in the Major Leagues now, and despite his minor league numbers, don’t be surprised if Stubbs continues to hit for decent power numbers as his career continues.

I hit the triple and I said, “They’re done.’

–Jonathan Sanchez, from the Silicon Valley Mercury News

In game 162, playing against the division rival for the right to go the playoffs, it wasn’t Jonathan Sanchez’s job to hit. It was his job to pitch. Nobody would argue that Sanchez was transcendental on the mound, but he did what he had to do, throwing five shutout innings despite three hits and five walks. He certainly received some defensive help from some unlikely candidates in Pablo Sandoval and Juan Uribe.

Instead, it was Sanchez’s bat which became a story. In the bottom of the third inning, Sanchez hit a triple deep to right center field off young Padres starter Mat Latos. He would eventually score the first run of the game for the Giants, which would turn out to be enough as the bullpen managed to shut the door with four scoreless innings behind Sanchez.

The hit was the third most important play for the Giants on offense – behind the Freddy Sanchez RBI single which scored the pitching Sanchez and the Aubrey Huff RBI double which scored the second baseman Sanchez. Jonathan’s triple had a WPA of +0.083, which seems underwhelming. Somewhat surprisingly, accounting for his role as pitcher only increases the WPA of the at-bat to +.091 (according to calculations from the WPA Inquirer), but it is worth pointing out that Sanchez’s triple was only the 4th by a pitcher all season and only the 20th extra base hit of more than a double. There’s also something to be said for the fact that Sanchez set up the top of the lineup with a runner on third and nobody out – the better hitters at the top of the order aren’t accounted for in WPA.

Perhaps it was a bit much for Sanchez to claim that the Padres were “done” after that hit, but maybe he had so much confidence in the top of his order that he knew he would come around to score. As he indeed scored on the next plate appearance, the Giants win probability rose to 65.4%; by the end of the inning the Giants had a 74.5% win expectancy. Sanchez’s triple wasn’t even the most important play of the inning, much less the game – the two run scoring plays in the inning had WPAs above +.100. But the triple kick-started the rally which gave the Giants the lead, and it seems to represent the turning point of what was formerly a 0-0 tie.

In the end, Sanchez was right: his triple and the ensuing runs buried the Padres. The most prominent threat to the Giants’ chances came immediately after Sanchez was pulled in the sixth inning. His replacement, Santiago Casilla, immediately induced a 5-4 double play from Yorvit Torrealba. The next inning, the Padres managed two baserunners, but Miguel Tejada struck out to end the inning. Those would be the last two baserunners stranded by a Padre in 2010, as Sergio Romo and Brian Wilson took down the Padres in order in the eighth and ninth innings, respectively.

Over 162 games, things tend to even out, but sometimes, it takes only one to decide a season, and in one game, anything can happen. Nobody would’ve guessed before the game that it would be Johnathan Sanchez who would ignite the rally to vault the Giants into the postseason. What happened on Sunday night was simply part of the magic of the game, and now that magic brings the Giants into October with a chance to win it all.

Justin Morneau hasn’t appeared in a game since July 7th due to post-concussion symptoms. According to a report from the St. Paul Pioneer Press, he won’t return until at least the ALCS. Despite only appearing in in 81 games and only compiling 348 plate appearances, Justin Morneau put up 5.3 WAR this season. That mark puts him at ninth in the American League and first among position players on the Twins (only behind Francisco Liriano’s 6.0 overall).

One could probably dispute Morneau’s +9.8 UZR in that relatively small stretch of games – he’s probably not a +20 fielder, if only because of the limited amount of attempts seen by a first baseman if nothing else. Still, even if we assume that Morneau was merely average, that would put him at 4.3 WAR – the total that he compiled in his 2006 MVP season – and still on pace for a total between 8.0 and 9.0 WAR, which would probably be the best season in the American League this year.

In previous seasons, Morneau was a great hitter. He was not, as the 2006 MVP voters and others saw him, an elite hitter. His OBPs ranged from .345-.375, and in order to truly create elite without getting on base 40% of the time, one has to be a mammoth power threat. Morneau wasn’t that either, as his SLG topped out at .559 in that MVP season and sat around .500 at other times. Again, it’s not that he wasn’t good – he was quite good, among one of the better hitters in the majors – but he wasn’t among the top five or top ten, and at first base, that doesn’t make him an MVP candidate.

This season, though, Morneau was the best hitter in the majors this side of Josh Hamilton before he got hurt. He posted a .345/.437/.618 line before going down, compiling a ridiculous 35 runs above average and a 187 wRC+. Those numbers are far, far above anybody on the Twins team and far above anything Morneau has done in the past. Of course, a .385 BABIP was the main booster of his mammoth early season line, but it wasn’t the only cause. He walked in over 14% of his plate appearances, easily a career high, and posted another career best in ISO at .274.

As Morneau hasn’t played in nearly three months now it can be easy to forget that he was putting a truly transcendental season before he was put on the shelf. His 5.3 WAR through half a season is a full win more than he has ever produced in any season. Morneau was easily having his best season as a MLB player, and one could easily make the argument that these 380 plate appearances actually do constitute the best MLB season by Justin Morneau.

Given that Troy Tulowitzki missed about a full month worth of playing time due to injury this season, the fact that he’s played himself into MVP consideration is quite remarkable. His teammate, Carlos Gonzalez, has consistently put up huge numbers all season long, and as a result he has also been part of the MVP discussion for much of the season and, for a time, he even staked a claim at a triple crown. These two form the base of the Colorado Rockies lineup, and both have been playing above and beyond expectations this September. Tulowitzki has a tremendous .324/.380/.820 line in September so far, good for a .501 wOBA, and Gonzalez barely trails him, hitting .393/.454/.626 this month. Despite this ridiculous performance from the leaders of the team, the Rockies have only gone 14-13 this month, failing to capitalize on struggles from the Padres (12-15) and Braves (13-14) while allowing the Giants (17-8) to completely take charge of the NL West.

Part of the failing here is the pitching. Rockies relievers have a 5.08 ERA this month, and although a 4.35 FIP suggests some poor luck, that’s still well below the NL reliever average (they do have a 3.35 xFIP, but keeping the ball in the yard is such a massive part of relieving that I’m loath to credit the unit for this). Huston Street has been solid (+1.1 WPA, 1.93 ERA, 1.87 FIP), and Rafael Betancourt and Matt Belisle have performed well too. However, the back end of the bullpen has been miserable. The primary offender is recently acquired Manny Delcarmen, whose -0.6 WPA in September is the worst out of the Rockies pen, and neither his 7.36 ERA nor his 5.13 FIP look any better. Overall, the Rockies bullpen has a +0.40 WPA – a number that looks good, but since the average reliever is better than the average pitcher, that number actually comes out to about .3 wins worse than the average bullpen. The rotation hasn’t been great either, as all the good from Jhoulys Chacin (1.78 ERA, 3.63 FIP) has been more than undone by terrible performances from Jeff Francis (8.38 ERA, 7.95 FIP) and Jason Hammel (6.41 ERA, 4.93 FIP). Those two combine for a -1.04 WPA on the month, and the unit as a whole checks it at a meager -0.41 WPA.

The pitching wasn’t good, but one might expect that a Rockies offense powered by the September explosions from Gonzalez and Tulowitzki would be able to overcome those efforts. Indeed, the offense as a unit has a .351 wOBA and was 20 runs above average – a good mark, but when we look deeper, many Rockies players missed opportunities to turn a good month into a special one. Without Tulowitzki and Gonzalez, the rest of the Rockies only posted a .312 wOBA and, with park adjustments, that comes out to a full 12 runs below average (roughly 2 runs below average without pitchers hitting). The primary offenders here are Eric Young Jr. (74 PA, .259 wOBA, -4 wRAA) and Miguel Olivo (72 PA, .273 wOBA, -3 wRAA). Melvin Mora and Ryan Spilborghs did put together solid months, but all together, the team simply couldn’t support the red-hot stars of the team.

Between the two of them, Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez were nearly 32 runs above average in the course of only a full month. It’s impossible to ask a pair of players to contribute more to a team. However, the failings all around – from the starting rotation, the bullpen, and the rest of the lineup – were just too much for the Rockies to make another historic run. Now, instead of playing meaningful baseball and competing for a playoff spot this weekend, they will toil for nothing while the Padres, Giants, and Braves race for the final two playoff spots.

A quick glance of the FanGraphs page for last night’s Padres-Cubs game suggests that Chris Young, not Will Venable, was the most important contributor for the Padres. Young pitched five shutout innings (still on a pitch count) and allowed only five baserunners while striking out six Cubs hitters, good for +.254 WPA. Venable, meanwhile, was 1-4 with a bases-empty single in the third inning and a stolen base. That drab performance only left him with -.011 WPA on the night. But one of the limitations of WPA as implemented by FanGraphs is the fact that immediate evaluation of defense is subjective and therefore nearly impossible to include in a live updating win probability chart.

 Simply looking at the win probability graph misses two fantastic defensive plays made by the Padres center fielder. The first play came as Alfonso Soriano led off the top of the second for Chicago. Soriano’s blast went deep to center field. The picture (and the video) tells the rest of the story.

Venable’s catch robbed Soriano of at least a double and possibly a home run. According to the WPA Enquirer at The Hardball Times, that means the play checks in at somewhere between +.093 and +.146. Not only should that be credited (at least mostly) to Venable, but that amount should be debited from Young, who was the beneficiary of this fantastic defensive play.

The Padres once again called on Venable to make a play in the top of the third inning. At this point, the Padres had taken a one run lead on a Chase Headley RBI single. With two outs in the inning and a runner on base, Aramis Ramirez hit a ball to deep left center field. Once again, a picture is worth a thousand words (and who knows how many the video is worth).

I feel safe in saying that this one would clearly have been a home run if not for Venable’s catch. The difference in the two situations – top of the 3rd, two outs, nobody on and a one run lead for the Cubs against the beginning of the bottom of the third and a one run lead for the Padres – comes out to +.289 WPA for Venable (and again, -.289 WPA for Young).

The two catches for Venable add up to between +.382 and +.435 WPA. Regardless, Venable becomes the clear MVP of the game for the Padres and Young becomes a goat who received worlds of support from his center fielder. With the 3-0 win, San Diego kept pace with the Giants and Braves, who both notched victories last night. The Padres still control their own destiny, as they will play one of the most intense and important final series of the season this weekend against the Giants. Good defense has been a hallmark of the Padres unlikely contention this season. Last night, it was good defense that effectively saved their playoff lives.