Morneau’s Forgotten Season
Justin Morneau hasn’t appeared in a game since July 7th due to post-concussion symptoms. According to a report from the St. Paul Pioneer Press, he won’t return until at least the ALCS. Despite only appearing in in 81 games and only compiling 348 plate appearances, Justin Morneau put up 5.3 WAR this season. That mark puts him at ninth in the American League and first among position players on the Twins (only behind Francisco Liriano’s 6.0 overall).
One could probably dispute Morneau’s +9.8 UZR in that relatively small stretch of games – he’s probably not a +20 fielder, if only because of the limited amount of attempts seen by a first baseman if nothing else. Still, even if we assume that Morneau was merely average, that would put him at 4.3 WAR – the total that he compiled in his 2006 MVP season – and still on pace for a total between 8.0 and 9.0 WAR, which would probably be the best season in the American League this year.
In previous seasons, Morneau was a great hitter. He was not, as the 2006 MVP voters and others saw him, an elite hitter. His OBPs ranged from .345-.375, and in order to truly create elite without getting on base 40% of the time, one has to be a mammoth power threat. Morneau wasn’t that either, as his SLG topped out at .559 in that MVP season and sat around .500 at other times. Again, it’s not that he wasn’t good – he was quite good, among one of the better hitters in the majors – but he wasn’t among the top five or top ten, and at first base, that doesn’t make him an MVP candidate.
This season, though, Morneau was the best hitter in the majors this side of Josh Hamilton before he got hurt. He posted a .345/.437/.618 line before going down, compiling a ridiculous 35 runs above average and a 187 wRC+. Those numbers are far, far above anybody on the Twins team and far above anything Morneau has done in the past. Of course, a .385 BABIP was the main booster of his mammoth early season line, but it wasn’t the only cause. He walked in over 14% of his plate appearances, easily a career high, and posted another career best in ISO at .274.
As Morneau hasn’t played in nearly three months now it can be easy to forget that he was putting a truly transcendental season before he was put on the shelf. His 5.3 WAR through half a season is a full win more than he has ever produced in any season. Morneau was easily having his best season as a MLB player, and one could easily make the argument that these 380 plate appearances actually do constitute the best MLB season by Justin Morneau.
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I feel like there’s a lot of work to be done on how concussions are handled. It seems like every time a player gets one in baseball, their season is ruined.
Baseball doesn’t feature a lot of subconcussive impacts. Pretty much if someone in baseball takes a significant blow to the head they’ll end up concussed.
Perhaps in hockey and football those playes who are vulnerable to lingering post-concussion symptoms have been selected out of the player population before the pro leagues. The same is likely not true in baseball.
I do find it interesting that Canadian players are disproportionately the guys in baseball with concussion problems. Perhaps they’re made more vulnerable by playing hockey as kids.
Morneau has had either four or five previous concussions all from playing hockey.
“Those numbers are far, far above anybody on the Twins team…”
Thome’s numbers, in just about the same number of plate appearances, are actually pretty darn close.
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=330&type=1&season=2010&month=0
“…and far above anything Morneau has done in the past.”
Actually through July of last year–until he started playing with a bad back before finally being shut down in September with a fractured vertebre–he was in this neighborhood of good. Essentially, in every game he’s played healthy the last two years, he’s been one of the best hitters in the American League. Unfortunately, dude’s had some serious health issues.
I don’t know that any 1B is a true +20 fielder, but Morneau was pretty awesome. His progress there has been amazing.
I’ve become convinced that as amazing as his season was offensively, defense is the one thing they really missed–PT for Morneau would have come at the exepense of PT for Thome, which, given how Thome performed in the second half, would be almost a wash. But Morneau’s absence forced them to play Cuddyer, probably the worst defensive first baseman in baseball, rather than the guy who may have turned himself into the *best* defensive first baseman in baseball.
Not only did the loss of Morneau get Thome some at-bats it also made room for Valencia to come up. Kid has put up 2.9 WAR in half a season.
I truly don’t see how Morneau has allowed Valencia (who is only average to slightly above average with a regressed BABIP) to come up by not playing. Cuddyer would have split time with Kubel in right, not taken time from Valencia.
Exactly.
It is not like Cuddyer and/or Kubel are having monster seasons – those two would have been the individuals who received less playing time had Morneau stayed healthy and the Twins stuck with Valencia at 3b.
Because with Morneau healthy, Gardenhire had been playing Cuddyer at 3B (shudder) because he wanted to keep Cuddyer and Kubel both in the lineup as a result of their huge 2009 seasons (.370 wOBA and .383, respectively).
Valencia will almost certainly regress toward average, but he can at least be a reasonable source of power with good fielding at third base, which is something the Twins have desperately needed for awhile now.
If Gardenhire had just played Valencia in interleague more rather than sticking Cuddy at 3B and Kubel in right, we’d have had a better offensive and defensive club and a much better interleague record. Valencia might also have a more realistic shot at Rookie of the Year contention.
Sorry to the pros here, especially to Mr. Jack Moore, for posting something irrelevant to the article.
I’m working on an article about Jimenez’s visible differences basically before and after the allstar game.
But during the process, I have difficult comprehending two statistics Avg H-
Break and Avg V-Break. I know roughly it’s about the movement of the ball.
So please help me here, or some suggestion about other places to fix the problems.
I apologize again for the bothering here.
@ShaoGir
H-Break is horizontal break, and V-Break is vertical break.
Good post. I really enjoyed Morneau’s first half and glad others are remembering it too. Hope he can put a full season together next year.