On July 25th, the Tigers called up a player to whom I immediately paid attention for two reasons: his awesome hair and his awesome name: Will Rhymes. Little did I know that this player would also perform well in his first stint in the Major Leagues. Entering play tonight, Rhymes has a nearly league average .321 wOBA in 34 games and 149 plate appearances as a second baseman.

Rhymes hasn’t shown much in the way of power – only 9 XBH and no home runs – and he isn’t walking much – 6.7% of plate appearances ending in a free pass. However, Rhymes has shown an excellent ability to make contact in the majors, striking out in only 8% of plate appearances, less than half of the league average of 17%. When he has made contact, he’s done well with it too, as he has a .328 BABIP supported by an excellent 23.3% line drive rate.

As a 27 year old with a middling minor league track record, it’s difficult to see Rhymes making any sort of major step forward. His best minor league wOBA in any sort of significantly long stint was .356 in AAA this season before receiving the call up to the Major Leagues, and that was accomplished in a similar way to Rhymes’s MLB line – some walks, very few strikeouts, and good performance on balls in play.

This is the first season in which Rhymes has shown this kind of ability to make contact, and as such, ZiPS expects some regression, but not much – still a very solid 14% strikeout rate. There’s likely some regression coming in terms of BABIP too, but I would also expect that Rhymes could hit one or two home runs before the season ends as well.

It’s difficult to get a beat on Rhymes’s defense in such a short time – UZR has him as slightly below average, whereas DRS has him at +8 and TotalZone has him at +4. The safest assumption is probably to have him as a roughly average second baseman, which means that he should be able to provide some defensive value for the Tigers going forward.

Rhymes’s profile is far form a sure thing to produce at the plate going forward, but right now, he looks like he could become the next Jeff Keppinger. That’s no great shakes, but Keppinger epitomizes the high contact player at the plate and does have two 2+ WAR seasons in the last four years, and that’s despite some poor defense all around the diamond. Rhymes will be an interesting player to watch for the Tigers as they attempt to retool after a relatively disappointing 2010 season.

It took until August for the Minnesota Twins to finally remove the struggling Nick Blackburn from the rotation. Blackburn posted an FIP above 6 in all of the first four months except for May and simply wasn’t able to keep the ball in the yard nor limit walks. As a contact pitcher – career swinging strike rate of 5.4% and a K/9 of 4.25 – Blackburn simply doesn’t have that kind of margin for error.

Blackburn’s failures in the rotation opened the door for Brian Duensing, who had been toiling as a reliever for 39 appearances over the season’s first four months. Duensing was moderately successful in that role, posting a FIP near 3.50 and compiling three runs above replacement in 45 innings. His first start came on July 23rd; since then Duensing had compiled 54 innings of 3.75 FIP baseball prior to last night’s start against the Kansas City Royals. Duensing threw eight innings in that game, allowing one run on six hits while striking out seven and walking none, which will surely increase his 1.0 WAR already accrued in the starter’s role.

Duensing probably won’t keep this kind of performance up. His 2.0 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 are both due for regression according to ZiPS and are both below his 2009 totals. Duensing’s skills are somewhat similar to Blackburn’s in the sense that Duensing isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher (5.0 K/9) but he misses more bats (8.1% swinging strikes) and induces slightly more grounders (52% this year, 49% career) while walking more (2.6 BB/9 career against Blackburn’s 1.9). As such, ZiPS projects a 4.37 FIP going forward. That would be below the league average FIP, but certainly decent for a starting pitcher, particularly one who wasn’t regarded as good enough to crack the starting rotation at the beginning of the season.

What Duensing represents for the Twins is the great pitching depth with which they entered the season. Duensing was the one of six pitchers projected to be worth at least 14 runs above replacement. Even without Blackburn performing up to his prior levels – a projected 2+ WAR pitcher sitting at replacement level – the Twins have been able to plug in another starter without missing a beat. Duensing’s 1.0 WAR in 54 IP prior to his last start would be great for a team’s second or third starter, much less it’s sixth. Depth like that is one reason that the Twins were projected to reach the postseason out of the AL Central this year, and, with performance like Duensing’s, it’s now a reason why they hold a 5.5 game lead as we head down the stretch.

The best offensive catcher in baseball this season with at least 200 plate appearances has been Geovany Soto, and it’s not particularly close. Soto has a .284/.399/.521 line with the Cubs this season – impressive for any player, but much more so at the catcher position. That line is good for a .395 wOBA, 15 points above Brian McCann,13 points better than the injury shortened season of Carlos Santana, and 20 points above Joe Mauer.

Soto has particularly excelled at taking walks and hitting for power. His 16.4% BB rate trails only Jim Thome and Jack Cust among players with 200 plate appearances, and his .236 ISO is in the top 30. His BABIP this year is a solid .320, 11 points above his career mark and 22 above the league average. The only area in which he hasn’t been great is in making contact, as he has struck out in 24.6% of at bats, about five percentage points more than average. That is slightly exaggerated, though, as his high amount of walks lowers his AB total – his K% in terms of plate appearances sits at 20.4%, three points above the league average.

Soto’s performances is worthy of praise and over the course of a full season, those could be MVP quality numbers. However, Soto has only appeared in 97 games this season, compiling 353 plate appearances and 3.4 WAR. Part of that has been injuries – recently, Soto has suffered a knee injury, and he had a DL stint in early August. However, a bigger part of that is simply former Cubs manager Lou Piniella’s reliance on backup Koyie Hill and reluctance to hit Soto high in the lineup.

Unless they’re Jason Kendall, most catchers can’t play every day, and as Jason Kendall shows, they probably shouldn’t. However, sometimes, a players skills necessitate that he is in the lineup more often than others. Geovany Soto, despite his poor 2009, was still projected to post a wOBA in the .350s, an excellent mark for a catcher. His backup, Koyie Hill, is not good. Hill has a .254 career wOBA and was projected for a slightly more serviceable .290 mark. However, Hill has forgotten how to take a walk (3.8%) and as such, his wOBA is all the way down to .236. Despite the fact that Soto is clearly the superior player and didn’t miss any injury time until late July, Hill already has appeared in 65 games and compiled 186 plate appearances of -0.7 WAR baseball. This is inexplicable – Soto may have needed rest, but there should be limits to the amount of time a star-level player as Soto spends on the bench.

Even when Soto is in the lineup, he doesn’t get his full dosage of plate appearances. Soto has seen the cleanup slot twice, the fifth slot eight times, and the sixth slot twice. The other 78 times that Soto has started the game have seen him in the seventh or eighth slots. Soto’s profile suggests that he should be hitting 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. Given that each slot sees about .11 more PAs per game than the one below it, Soto has missed out on anywhere between 30 and 50 plate appearances thanks to this relegation to the bottom of the lineup. With similar performance to his season to date in those PAs, that could be another half-win added to Soto’s line.

Geovany Soto has been incredibly productive for the Chicago Cubs this season, and if it weren’t for a number of factors keeping him out of the lineup, he could be having an MVP quality season. It’s hard to blame his injuries on Cubs management, but there is no excuse for Soto remaining in the 7th or 8th slot in the batting order or seeing Koyie Hill constantly spot starting.

Nick Hagadone was probably the centerpiece of the deal which shipped Victor Martinez out of Cleveland, as he entered the 2010 season ranked in the top 50 by Baseball America. However, another piece in that deal has shown a compelling combination of potential and production at the Major League level, and that is right handed starting pitcher Justin Masterson. Masterson showed both in his 28th start of the season for the Indians last night, holding the Angels to only one run – a Torii Hunter solo home run – while striking out five and walking two over seven innings of work.

As usual, the ground ball was the most prevalent ball in play type for Masterson on Tuesday night, as he allowed eight grounders, seven flies, and three line drives in a start which saw far more balls in the air than the typical Justin Masterson start. Entering this start, Masterson was showcasing an otherworldly 60% ground ball rate. With only 40% of balls in the air and only 24% of them as fly balls, it’s no surprise that Masterson has limited opponents to 0.74 HR/9 this season.

That number is crucial for Masterson, as he has an issue with walks – over four per nine innings – and doesn’t have crazy strikeout numbers to back it up – his 6.85 K/9 is hardly remarkable. However, thanks to that ground ball rate and the resulting limited amount of home runs allowed, Masterson carried a 4.15 FIP into last night’s game along with a 4.17 xFIP. The only problem was a 5.04 ERA.

It’s not as though his batted profile suggests that he’s a player that DIPS would miss on. He doesn’t allow many line drives (15.4%) and his 4.00 tERA comes out ahead of his FIP and xFIP. The problem has been allowing hits on balls in play (.336) and, more importantly, an inability to strand runners (66.2% LOB). It’s not like these issues have plagued him since he broke into the league in 2008 – his career LOB% is 70.4%, thanks to a good 2008 and a poor 2009 in that department, and his BABIP in 2008 was a paltry .243.

As a player who thrives on the ground ball, defense could be a key to Masterson’s struggles. Indeed, the Indians’ DER sits at .684 according to Baseball Prospectus, 22nd in the Major Leagues. The infield defense has left some to be desired, although I would hesitate to call it terrible. Asdrubal Cabrera has been between average and poor at SS depending on who you ask; Jhonny Peralta is certainly below average at 3B as is Matt LaPorta at 1B and Jason Donald, the backup SS. Luis Valbuena has been solid at second base. It’s certainly not a good infield, but blaming all of Masterson’s issues on it would be too much.

What’s more likely is that Masterson simply has been the victim of poor luck, and although there may be something about his spray chart that would result in him running a high BABIP, it’s certainly hard to make that claim right now, both given the lack of a reliable sample size and the fact that his .311 career BABIP is hardly an outlier. As his career continues, we should expect his ERA to fall towards average, as that’s what his unique peripherals suggest. If that is indeed the case, the Indians will have added a very valuable starting pitcher to their team, with more to come from the minor leagues in return for the Victor Martinez trade.

As we head down the stretch, the name at the top of the pitcher WAR leaderboard might be surprising, but it shouldn’t be shocking. The title reveals that the leader in pitcher WAR at this point, nearly 85% of the way through the season, is Florida Marlins ace Josh Johnson – not Roy Halladay, nor Ubaldo Jimenez, not Cliff Lee, not Felix Hernandez, and not CC Sabathia. Johnson is establishing himself as possibly the best pitcher in the game, coming off a 5.5 WAR, 209 IP, 3.23 ERA, 3.06 FIP 2009 season and posting even more remarkable numbers in 2010. In 183 innings this season, Johnson has a 2.30 ERA and a 2.44 FIP – good for 6.3 WAR to date.

By no means is the race over. Halladay, Francisco Liriano, Lee, and Hernandez are all within 0.4 WAR of Johnson and could certainly catch him over the course of a few more starts. That said, it certainly doesn’t feel like Josh Johnson’s season has received the play that it deserves, whether it be in this space or across the country. Everybody already knows about Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee’s K/BB numbers are prepared to shatter records. Ubaldo Jimenez’s season began with the ludicrous ERA and the possibility of a 25 win season. Francisco Liriano gets the huge NERD scores for an ERA which remains nearly a run above his FIP due to an inexplicable .344 BABIP. Perhaps it’s because I live in the Midwest and therefore see little of Johnson on TV, but it feels that the attention given to Johnson’s season pales in comparison to those of these pitchers, not to mention guys like Clay Buchholz and CC Sabathia who have sparkly traditional numbers on playoff teams.

There’s no reason whatsoever not to like Josh Johnson’s season. He has a respectable 11-6 record with a 2.30 ERA. He has struck out 186 batters in 183 innings while walking only 48 and allowing only 7 homers. He has kept 46% of balls in play on the ground. His swinging strike rate of 11.8% rivals those of top relief pitchers. He hits the zone more than the average pitcher, and gets the first strike nearly 65% of the time. Basically, Johnson does everything that you can ask out of a pitcher, and for that reason Johnson has been the best pitcher in baseball according to our WAR, and I find it difficult to argue with that conclusion.

Between 2009 and 2010, Josh Johnson has now posted 11.8 wins above replacement. Projecting pitchers can be dangerous, but Johnson has a powerful fastball, fantastic secondary stuff, an ability to strike batters out, and solid control of the strike zone. Only a select few pitchers in the game can challenge the arsenal of picthes and skills that Johnson brings to the mound every single time out. That’s why Josh Johnson leads the league in WAR coming down the stretch of the season, and that’s why Josh Johnson just might be the single best pitcher in baseball.

As far as AL West aces go, most people could probably give you three easily: Cliff Lee, Felix Hernandez, and Jered Weaver. Brett Anderson of the Oakland Athletics has largely flown under the radar, receiving all of two Rookie of the Year votes in a stellar 2009 campaign and having a solid 2010 go mostly unnoticed due to injury. Yesterday, Anderson continued to stymie AL hitters, holding the Seattle Mariners to one run in 7.2 innings, walking none, allowing four hits including a solo home run to Franklin Gutierrez, and striking out four.

The start lowered Anderson’s ERA to 2.98 in 78.2 innings, and that’s well supported by a 3.12 FIP. Anderson has thrived on excellent control, limiting opponents to only 1.77 walks per nine innings. That’s in part because opponents make more contact off him than the average pitcher – only a 6.4% swinging strike rate against a league average of around 8% – but also because he hits the zone more than average as well. Despite the low amount of whiffs, Anderson still strikes out 6.5 batters per 9 innings, a respectable total. Perhaps even more important than his stupendous control of the strike zone, particularly this year, with more contact allowed, is Anderson’s ability to induce the ground ball. Twelve of the 22 balls in play hit against him on Labor Day were ground balls, and this is indicative of his season to date, as a whopping 56% of balls in play have been on the ground against Anderson in 2010. That’s a big reason why he has a 0.38 HR/9 rate this season, and although he probably won’t give up home runs on only 5.5% of fly balls for the rest of his career or even this season, his xFIP is still an excellent 3.61.

Brett Anderson has found a recipe for success built on solid command and control, a fantastic slider, and an ability to keep the ball on the ground. Obviously nobody noticed last year, as a fantastic campaign received no postseason award recognition. Anderson missed the meat of the summer this season due to an elbow injury, but he’s returned on the same note that he left. Anderson is poised to post over 6 wins above replacement in his first two seasons in the majors, and will enter his age 23 season ready to show those around the country, both on the field and at home, that he’s a legitimate staff ace.

Sunday afternoon was simply another outing for Felix Hernandez. King Felix threw eight shutout innings against the Cleveland Indians, striking out nine, walking one, and only allowing four hits. The big game was nothing new for Hernandez this season, whose 2.38 ERA trails only Clay Buchholz among American League pitchers and whose 2.95 FIP trails only Francisco Liriano and Cliff Lee in that same group.

Given how remarkable Hernandez’s stuff is, it should be no surprise that he is among the best pitchers in the world. All of his pitches were at top form on Sunday, as we can see thanks to the Pitch F/X data from Brooks Baseball. His fastball sat between 92 and 96 and drew three swinging strikes in 40 pitches. Hernandez showed fantastic control of that pitch, as it was a strike 28 times overall – over 70% of the time. Batters clearly weren’t making good contact on his fastball either, as the pitch type linear weights value for the pitch was a whopping -2.2 runs for the game.

His other fastball, classified as a sinker by Pitch F/X but still in the 92-96 range, was similarly impressive, drawing five whiffs and notching 28 strikes in 43 pitches. Hernandez only had to go to his off-speed stuff 28 times, including a 90 MPH changeup which hardly classifies as off-speed. That changeup was only used seven times but proved deadly, as it drew four whiffs – an unfathomable 57.4% whiff rate. The slider, which averaged 85 MPH, wasn’t quite as impressive in terms of contact – three whiffs in 18 pitches – but Hernandez’s control of the pitch was excellent, as it went for a strike 13 times.

This start only adds to Hernandez’s fantastic 2010 line. Now, on the season, Hernandez has thrown 219.1 innings, striking out 209, walking only 60 and allowing 14 home runs. That comes out to rates of 8.58 K/9, 2.46 BB/9, and 0.57 HR/9 – numbers which finally equal the numbers that Hernandez put up as a 20 year old phenom with a blazing fastball out of the minor leagues. In 2005, that excellent rookie year, Hernandez posted a 2.67 ERA and a still career best 2.85 FIP in his first 12 major league starts. Hernandez’s FIP currently sits at 2.95, in a much larger sample. People expected great things out of him after that season, and although Hernandez has been nothing short of fantastic, this is the first time since that he has truly regained that level of greatness. It’s safe to say that Felix Hernandez has assumed the throne that many believed he would after such an impressive debut stint in the Major Leagues.

Hisanori Takahashi has proven himself to be both a versatile and talented pitcher in his short time with the New York Mets. The 35-year-old Japanese rookie has a 3.95 ERA and a 3.79 FIP in 107 innings split between the bullpen and the starting rotation. Between the two, Takahashi has compiled 1.4 WAR and shown that he is worth of a full time MLB starting role.

Takahashi’s agent, Peter Greenberg, released a statement that suggested that Takahashi may prefer a partciular role and that said role is a determinant in which team Takahashi signs with in 2011:

“He has obviously established himself in the major leagues. He liked it in New York and would love the chance to take the next step here. But we’ll have to wait until the season ends to sit down with him to see what he’s thinking for next year as far as if he has a preference to any particular role.”

Given that Takahashi spent most of his years with the Yomiuri Giants in the NPB as a starting pitcher, and that he has managed a 2.6 K/BB as a starter in the MLB, the “particular role” and “next step” suggested by Greenberg is probably the role of Major League starter. Takahashi has posted a 5.01 ERA as a starter in 2010, but that is mostly due to a high HR/FB rate – his 2.6 K/BB rate in that role is effectively equal to his K/BB rate as a reliever.

Even with the high amount of home runs allowed, Takahashi has still posted roughly half a win as a MLB starter in 64.1 innings. At that rate, he would be a 1.5 WAR pitcher over a full season, and with regression over his HR rate., there’s no reason to believe Takahashi wouldn’t be an above average pitcher. One needs only to look at his success as a reliever to see how: in 42 relief innings, Takahashi has struck out 54 batters while walking only 18 and allowing only one home run. Takahashi has been nothing short of fantastic in his relief role, compiling nearly one whole win above replacement in 42 innings in the role.

The fact that Takahashi has been so successful in the relief role seems to suggest that he remains there, but the only real difference between his perfomance as a starter and as a reliever appears to be the amount of home runs allowed. It is likely that Takahashi (or any other pitcher, for that matter) would allow more home runs as a starter than as a reliever, but not to the extent that Takahashi has in his one major league season: a 1.54 HR/9 as a starter against a 0.18 HR/9 as a reliever. It’s far more likely that Takahashi would allow a 1.00 HR/9 as a starter like he has overall this season. With that kind of home run line, his 2.6 K/BB would play quite well in a starting role.

The fact that Hisanori Takahashi has given up a multitude of home runs as a starter belies the kind of season that he is having. In reality, Takahashi has shown that he has no problem retiring Major League hitters. Yes, he may be more suited to a relief role – in reality, most pitchers are – but there’s certainly reason to believe that he can succeed in a starting role. If that is indeed the case, teams should target him as a starter – not only would Takahashi be more likely to sign, but the increased amount of innings would lead to more value added to the team as well.

The Braves have already been forced to dip into their starting pitching reserves once this season, thanks to the season ending elbow injury suffered by Kris Medlen. Mike Minor has performed extremely well in his stead, striking out 26 in 23 innings and posting a 3.91 ERA supported by a fantastic 2.45 FIP. The Braves will dip into those reserves again for at least one start this Friday, as Derek Lowe will be shelved with elbow pain. Atlanta will start Kenshin Kawakami in his place, showing off their impressive starting pitching depth.

Kawakami has an 8-21 record with Atlanta, but that belies how well he has really pitched. In nearly 240 innings over the past two seasons, Kawakami has struck out six batters per nine innings while only walking three. Combined with a below average HR/9 rate, that has led to a 4.20 FIP and a 4.17 ERA, both numbers right around the league average. That’s partially due to a low HR/FB rate, but his xFIP of 4.57 still suggests that Kawakami would provide a good deal over a replacement starter were that HR/FB rate to regress. ZiPS projects that said regression will be met by a decline in walk rate, leading to a 4.32 ERA and 4.11 FIP, both numbers which are excellent to receive out of a seventh starter.

The Braves really shouldn’t expect any drop off with Kawakami in the rotation over Lowe. Although Lowe is probably a better true talent pitcher – Lowe has a 3.87 projected FIP – Kawakami’s career and projected numbers are both right in line if not better than Lowe’s 2010 so far. Lowe has from a highly inflated HR/FB rate and has a 4.53 ERA and 4.29 FIP against a 3.94 xFIP.

One could probably make an argument that Kawakami could’ve been in the Braves starting rotation the whole year, but their embarrassment of riches hasn’t made it necessary. To be able to replace Derek Lowe with a league average pitcher can only be described as luxury. The fact that this is possible after already replacing one injured starter with a mid-rotation quality pitcher is a testament to the fantastic job the Braves have done of acquiring pitching talent.

Jeff Suppan started his ninth game of the season for the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday. The 35-year-old starter, acquired after the Brewers released him and his albatross contract, pitched five innings against the Astros, allowing four earned runs on four walks, three hits, and one home run while striking out only one batter. With this start in the books, Suppan has now struck out 19 batters, walked 19 batters, and allowed eight home runs in his 46.1 innings pitched for St. Louis. Prior to tonight’s start, Suppan had a 5.53 FIP and a 5.14 xFIP as a Cardinal, both numbers which will only climb after yesterday’s poor start.

And yet, despite how utterly horribly Suppan has pitched, he comes out of that start against Houston with merely a 4.47 ERA. Suppan has stranded a ridiculous 82.8% of baserunners allowed, and for that reason he has managed to get away relatively unscathed despite no other mark suggesting anything even resembling major league talent. It’s not even as if Suppan has been good at preventing hits, either- he has allowed 57 hits in 47.1 innings now and a BABIP of .323. Either it’s a fantastically wily veteran wherewithal on the mound or Suppan has been incredibly lucky with runners on base, and it shouldn’t be hard to guess which side of the issue on which I fall.

And yet, despite the fact that Suppan has allowed only slightly more runs than the average, Suppan has a 1-5 record as a Cardinal and the club is 3-6 in games started by him, with one win ranking as the Cardinals most fantastic comeback win of the season. The universe has corrected itself through the paltry run support the Cardinals have given Suppan. In his nine starts, the Cardinals have given him 3, 1, 0, 1, 1, 0, 0, 3, and 2 runs in support, respectively, and Suppan simply isn’t good enough or lucky enough to win with so little offense behind him.

Somehow, Suppan has managed to avoid giving up loads of runs, but the Cardinals haven’t managed to take advantage of it and win. The fact that Jeff Suppan has already received nine starts is a big reason why the Cardinals are now eight games back. If he’s not the worst starting pitcher in the National League, he’s close, and it’s simply poetic justice that his teammates aren’t putting up runs behind his lucky performances to date. The Cardinals shouldn’t expect an ERA below 5.00 as Suppan racks up the innings, and they certainly shouldn’t expect to win with him on the mound down the stretch either.