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McLouth Signs With Pittsburgh

After accumulating -1.0 WAR over the past two years in Atlanta, the Braves declined their 2012 option on outfielder Nate McLouth and allowed the former Gold Glove center fielder — yes, Gold Glover, seriously — to reach the free agent market.

A sizzling market never materialized for the 30-year-old, but the Pittsburgh Pirates are reportedly poised to sign McLouth to a one-year deal. It will bring McLouth back to his old stomping ground in his glory days, when he was considered a breakout star after slugging 26 home runs and posting a .369 wOBA with the Pirates in 2008.

He will not be returning to Pittsburgh in the same capacity as when he left, though. Andrew McCutchen now patrols center field. Jose Tabata and Alex Presley have the inside track at the corner outfield spots. It seems McLouth was brought back to Pittsburgh to serve as the fourth outfielder and mentor the young kids.

McLouth is simply not the hitter that he once was. He still boasts a walk rate consistently north of 11% — it was 13.7% in 2011 — and he still runs the bases exceedingly well, but the wheels have fallen off at the plate after two straight seasons of declining ISO numbers and sub-.700 OPS. Consider the fact that his defensive numbers continue to be well below-average, and it’s perhaps surprising he even garnered a major-league deal.

The good news is that Pittsburgh now have an improvement over Xavier Paul, who served as the fourth outfielder for the Pirates in 2011. His .286 wOBA and questionable defense has led to a career -0.3 WAR over 183 games in three seasons. McLouth will get on base more than Xavier Paul, and he will likely hit for more power. So, at least the move is an upgrade as a whole.

Some speculation abounds that this McLouth deal could mean Garrett Jones gets non-tendered to save a couple million dollars. That would be an unfortunate result, as Jones hits for more power, posts similar walk rates, and can (kind of) play both corner outfield positions.

McLouth, on the other hand, has the advantage that he can serve as McCutchen’s backup in center field. Jones cannot function in that capacity whatsoever. That’s really the only thing that Nate McLouth has over Garrett Jones. Well, that and baserunning. McLouth had a +4.2 BsR in 2011, while Jones was below-average at -4.3 BsR.

It should also be noted that neither McLouth nor Jones can handle left-handed pitching with any consistency, which could also lead the Pirates to non-tender Jones. The organization would be wise to pair McLouth with another reserve outfielder with a right-handed bat; perhaps Gorkys Hernandez — who hit .283/.348/.392 in Triple-A Indianapolis — is ready to make his big-league debut.

Whatever happens with Garrett Jones and the other backup outfield position, though, Nate McLouth is back in Pittsburgh. He will hope to find a bit of the magic that helped him become one of the more exciting young outfielders in the game just four years ago.


Orioles and Rockies Discussing Trade For Huston Street

According to Jon Morosi of FOX Sports, the Baltimore Orioles are discussing a trade with the Colorado Rockies that would net them closer Huston Street.

Baltimore featured the fourth-worst bullpen in all of baseball last season with a collective 4.31 FIP. It featured the headache that is Kevin Gregg as closer, as well as such stalwarts as Jeremy Accardo, Brad Bergesen, and Chris Jakubauskas. The only true bright spots were right-handers Jim Johnson, Pedro Strop, and Koji Uehara — and, even then, Uehara and his 2.56 FIP were traded to Texas prior to the deadline.

Obviously, the Orioles have a weakness in the bullpen. That’s not even up for discussion. But after going 69-93 last season and finishing 28 games behind the first-place Yankees, why the hell is Baltimore targeting a closer that will cost a significant amount in terms of prospects and only has one or two years (depending on the player option) remaining on the contract?

Huston Street is a good, but not elite, closer. He owns a career 3.09 FIP and was victimized last season by a career-high 14.5% HR/FB, which caused his overall earned run average to balloon to almost 4.00. Any potential suitor should be concerned that his velocity dropped 1.2 MPH in 2011 — which also happened in 2007, when Street spent time on the DL with elbow problems — but the talent is undeniably there.

The point, however, is not whether or not Huston Street is worth acquiring as a closer. It’s whether or not the Baltimore Orioles should move young talent to trade for a reliever with a maximum of two years remaining on his contract.

The answer is clearly negative.

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Phillies Sign Laynce Nix

After signing four consecutive minor-league contracts, outfielder Laynce Nix agreed to a two-year deal with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Nix can be a useful piece for an organization that is willing to acknowledge his faults and limit him to a part-time player. As a left-hander, he has always struggled against left-handed pitching, though he has always showed plus-power against right-handers. He owns a career .198 ISO and .317 wOBA against righties and only a .090 ISO and .227 wOBA when facing southpaws.

Philadelphia wrestled the 31-year-old away from the Nationals by offering a multi-year offer. Nix likely also saw an opportunity to match playing time with postseason aspirations. The early speculation is that he will be expected to platoon in left field with John Mayberry Jr., and he could even see some time at first base early in the year with Ryan Howard on the disabled list.

When fashioning a platoon, especially in the outfield at a premium offensive position, the key is to match two players together with a similar weakness — just at opposite sides of the plate. Nix and Mayberry do not fit that mold. Take a look at the 2011 lefty-righty splits:

The isolated power is just a touch lower for Mayberry against right-handers than it is for Nix, but the wOBA is higher for Mayberry by eight points. That stems from better plate discipline as a whole. In 2011, Mayberry had a 29.9% O-Swing and 10.0% SwStr compared to a 42.8% O-Swing and 12.0% SwStr for Nix.

So, Mayberry performed better against righties in 2011 than did Nix, and the 27-year-old Mayberry also displays better plate discipline across the board. We’re running out of reasons why this platoon would make sense. Perhaps the defense Nix provides is better than Mayberry’s, which would push the slightly worse numbers against righties over the top and justify significant playing time over Mayberry.

UZR did not like Nix in 2011 — rating him a below-average -3.6 UZR in left field — despite the fact that he has traditionally been a very good outfielder throughout his career. Mayberry, on the other hand, was rated an above-average +2.6 UZR in left field throughout the 2011 season. A one-year sample size for UZR should not necessarily be considered gospel when rating a player’s defensive abilities, but what the numbers do suggest, however, is that Nix is not a significantly better defender than Mayberry — which, yet again, does not improve the argument for a platoon in left field.

With the roster as currently constructed, Laynce Nix should be a useful bench bat and fourth outfielder, who can adequately handle all three outfield positions with the glove. Mayberry should be given the chance to win the everyday job in left field, and some combination of Ty Wigginton, Nix, and perhaps even Jim Thome can cover the void at first base during the absence of Ryan Howard.

The Laynce Nix signing does signify the end of the Raul Ibanez era in Philadelphia. It’s tough to believe the veteran will receive a big league offer this winter as anything other than a bench bat with power, as he was worth -1.3 WAR (-18.9 runs defensively) in 2011.

The monetary value of the two-year contract given to Nix is not yet available, but one has to imagine the guaranteed amount is somewhat negligible. Philadelphia should not need overpay for a fourth outfielder, nor should they consider platooning Nix in left field with John Mayberry Jr. The numbers that necessitate a platoon are simply not there.


Kenley Jansen’s Dominant Fastball

Every year it seems we hear about a former position player trying to transition to the mound in order to save his professional career.

Two years ago, it was Tony Pena Jr. with the Royals who moved from a light-hitting shortstop to reliever. In 2010, Sergio Santos of the Chicago White Sox grabbed headlines after making the big leagues as a shutdown reliever after struggling for a better part of a decade as a shortstop. Trevor Hoffman also failed as a shortstop before trying his luck as a pitcher. Carlos Marmol played two years as a catcher and outfielder for the Cubs before stepping foot on the mound for good.

It’s not uncommon. One can set foot in a big league bullpen and likely find a former position player lurking in that group — a player that just couldn’t cut it as a professional ballplayer at their respective positions — but the organization saw a special arm they wanted an opportunity to refine on the mound.

In 2011, the position-player-turned-reliever that firmly burst onto the scene was right-hander Kenley Jansen of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Rays Trade Jaso to Mariners

In a weekend that was filled with football, college basketball, and leftover turkey, the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners hooked up for a trade that pulled us back into the clutches of the simmering Hot Stove – the deal saw Tampa trade 28-year-old catcher John Jaso to Seattle for 27-year-old right-handed reliever Josh Lueke and a player to be named later (or cash considerations).

Jaso is a very solid, buy-low acquisition for the Mariners. He endeared himself to the sabermetric community by hitting .263/.372/.378 as a rookie in 2010, but followed that up by hitting only .224/.298/.354 this past season. That .288 wOBA, however, was largely due to a dip in BABIP to .244, which should see some natural correction next year.

The left-handed hitting catcher possesses a keen eye for balls and strikes at the plate and is extremely selective when swinging. He has walked more than he has struck out over his career, while swinging at a mere 34.9% of the pitches he sees over his 687 plate appearances in the big leagues. Only Bobby Abreu, Brett Gardner, Joe Mauer, and Jamey Carroll take the bat off their shoulder less often than Jaso.

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Different Is Not Bad: CBA Includes Second Wild Card

In a year that has seen extreme labor disagreements within the NFL and the NBA, it’s extremely comforting to know that the owners and the players have reached an agreement on a new five-year Collective Bargaining Agreement — assuring that baseball will have at least 21 consecutive years of labor peace.

One of the stipulations of the agreement is that a second Wild Card spot will be added to both leagues. Five teams will make the postseason, featuring a play-in game between the two Wild Card winners, and — if Bud Selig gets his way — this change could be implemented as soon as the 2012 season.

Adding a fifth playoff team to both leagues is not universally popular amongst fans. After all, making the postseason in baseball is a badge of honor. Only 26.7% of the teams can boast a playoff appearance at the end of the season. It’s not like football or basketball, in which sub-.500 teams can slide into the postseason. Only the elite squads make the postseason in baseball, and that has a sort of innate purity to it.

Does a fifth team in the playoffs really dilute the elite status of a postseason appearance, though?

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Barmes To The Buccos

Shortstop is one of the deepest positions on the market this winter. The Pittsburgh Pirates made an early splash in the free agent waters and signed shortstop Clint Barmes to a two-year, $10.5M deal.

Pittsburgh chose to explore other shortstop options outside of Ronny Cedeno this winter. While Cedeno was statistically the best defender on the team in 2011 (5.9 UZR), he has historically never produced much at the plate. His paltry .277 career wOBA and .271 wOBA in 2011 are both evidence of that.

Barmes is a natural fit with the Pirates because he replaces the sound defense that Cedeno provided last year, but also increases the production at the plate to a respectable level. The 31-year-old Barmes has double-digit home run power and posted a .308 wOBA — which may not be impressive, but it is just below league average (20 out of 34) amongst shortstops with at least 350 plate appearances in 2011 and is enough due to his glovework.

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Hard Slotting Is Bad for Baseball

Though the Collective Bargaining Agreement negotiations between the MLB Players Association and Major League Baseball are not expected to infringe upon the 2012 season, the issue of instituting a hard-slotting system for the amateur draft has come to the forefront of the discussions. In fact, it is largely considered the only true roadblock in negotiations at this point.

The players view hard-slotting as the beginning of a salary cap in baseball, as it begins to limit how much teams are able to spend on amateur baseball players. Major League Baseball, on the other hand, is pushing a hard-slotting system as a way to curb the ever-rising bonus spending — teams spent a record $236M on the 2011 Draft — and to better ensure that the best amateur prospects are dispersed to the worst teams in an effort to increase parity.

With those two opposing viewpoints on the table, is hard-slotting good for baseball?

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Mets Listening: Who Is the Wright Fit?

After finishing the season 77-85 and watching their superstar, Jose Reyes, about to test the free agent market, the New York Mets appear poised to embark on a true rebuilding effort. Recent reports out of New York suggest that Sandy Alderson believes 2014 or 2015 is a more realistic window for contention for his club, which leaves third baseman David Wright’s future with the organization in a state of flux.

He is owed $15M next season and has a club option of $16M ($1M buyout) remaining on his contract. That makes him incredibly expensive for a team that does not have aspirations of legitimate contention during that time frame. His wOBA has also decreased every season since 2007 and only hit .254/.345/.427, which has caused some folks to start asking if Wright is nearing the tipping point of his career.

For a team wishing to amass young talent to bolster a farm system that is not bursting at the seams with talent — especially given the unfortunate injury to Jenrry Mejia — listening on offers for David Wright could be wise. If they can get Wright to waive his opt-out clause and give an acquiring team two years of team control, this offseason could be the best chance for the Mets to garner impact talent in return for the third baseman, and though the organization could retain Wright to appease fickle fans and drive attendance, Alderson and company should evaluate the market for their third baseman this winter.

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LaCava Turns Down Baltimore GM Job

In a Hot Stove season that generally focuses on organizational acquisitions, multiple league sources reported yesterday that Tony LaCava has turned down the general manager position with the Baltimore Orioles and will remain the assistant general manager with the Toronto Blue Jays.

The intriguing aspect of this development, however, is not that LaCava turned down Baltimore in favor of Toronto. It’s more that nobody in the baseball community believes he made the wrong choice. In fact, national writers immediately took to Twitter with snide comments such as: “Nobody blames him.”

So, why does no one seemingly covet the GM job in Baltimore? After all, only 30 GM positions exist in baseball.

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