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It’s Friday, so end your week the right way with another episode of Chin Music. I’m joined this week by the always affable Eric Longenhagen in the co-host chair. We begin by considering the very fun races for the NL West division crown and the AL’s Wild Card spots before discussing some movement at the major league executive level and the numerous hot starts of various 2021 draftees.

We’re then joined by special guest Liz Roscher of Yahoo Sports to discuss the 2021 Philadelphia Phillies and the years-long frustrations felt by both the team and their fans. From there it’s black metal talk, plus e-mails on scouting grades and the best minor league towns, catching up with Eric, and a plug for a way to watch better movies than what’s available in the mainstream.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Skaldr.

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I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t understand the Tampa Bay Rays. I don’t understand how they win as many games as they do. They’re definitely good, but it never feels like they should be as good as they are, or recently have been. But at a certain point, if they are consistently better than expected, I’m the one in the wrong and it’s on me to try to understand.

The offense I get. The current American League leader in runs scored is a little over their skis, as they hold that lead despite ranking sixth in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging (they’re fourth in team wRC+ and fifth in OPS). That’s mostly due to the fact that as a team they have greatly improved results with runners on base compared to when they’re empty. That’s more likely luck-related than some kind of mysterious clutch skill they possess, but what the Rays do have is monstrous depth. Nobody in the lineup is going to garner MVP consideration, but their ability to almost never throw out a lineup with dead innings is unmatched in baseball thanks to a roster filled with average or better players. Just look at the Rays compared to the rest of their AL East competition:

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It’s been a rough week, my friends, so at least end it well with another episode of Chin Music. I’m joined by our very own Jon Tayler in the co-host chair. We begin by discussing the never-ending tragedy that is the Mets and some COVID-19 news with the Nationals and MLB Network before settling into some actual baseball talk about September races and whether or not Mike Trout and Jacob deGrom should just call it a day, or at least a season.

We’re then joined by special guest Julian McWilliams, who covers the Red Sox for The Boston Globe, to discuss the COVID-19 outbreak on the team and how it affects both Boston’s chances and his ability to do his job. From there, it’s your e-mails on agents, lineup construction, and the amateur showcase circuit, plus more than a bit of music discussion and a pair of escapist TV show recommendations to help get you through these troubled times.

As always, we hope you enjoy, and thank you for listening.

Music by Helen Money.

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A couple of weeks ago, White Sox manager Tony LaRussa called first baseman José Abreu “one of the great players in major league history.” That’s certainly a strong statement — probably too strong, but that’s fine. There’s nothing wrong with a manager praising his players.

Abreu’s season has been defined by streaks, but he’s getting hot down the stretch for Chicago, and when he’s hot, he’s an aircraft carrier in terms of the ability to put the team on his back if needed.

As he heats up, he’s now on track to lead the American League in RBIs for the third consecutive season, and while that statistic is exceptionally lineup dependent, it still speaks to his value in the middle of the order, as well as his exceptional durability and consistency. His career wRC+ is 133, and his lowest mark in a season is 114, back in 2018. He’s had off years, but only in the context of his own career; he’s never approached anything that could be called bad. Most of his ability comes from his massive strength, as he ranks in the 90th-plus percentile among major leaguers in most any advanced power measurement stat. And while he’s a bit of a free swinger, he barrels balls up at an elite rate, and they tend to have more oomph on them than when your average player squares a ball up.

Is he one of the greatest players in history? He is not, but he’s certainly high on my Cuban-What-Could-Have-Been list. While most baseball fans have only been aware of Abreu since his 2014 rookie season, for many inside the game, last year’s MVP campaign was a long time coming.

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End your week with another episode of Chin Music, as I’m joined by co-host Kyle Glaser of Baseball America. We begin by discussing Wednesday night’s insanity in San Diego, legal rumblings with the Angels and opioids, and a discussion of which minor league rule changes might graduate to the big leagues. Then we are joined by special guest Dennis Lin of The Athletic, who discusses what has gone wrong with the Padres in the second half of the season. From there it’s your emails, discussions about Shohei Ohtani and Bryce Harper, and the disappointment that was the new movie Annette.

As always, we hope you enjoy and thank you for listening.

Music by Rid Of Me.

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The Orioles woke up on Thursday morning as winners for the first time in over three weeks, with their 10–6 defeat of the Angels snapping a 19-game losing streak. It’s just Baltimore’s second victory this month, though they need quite a few more — 24 in their final 37 games, to be exact — in order to avoid a third 100-loss season in the last four years. It’s a miserable run, but one not wholly unexpected when Mike Elias took the reigns and devoted all of his resources to building a farm system that could produce a consistent winner, all but ignoring the big league roster.

Still, the major league product is unwatchable, and fair questions are starting to be asked. Can this team start to pull out of what feels like a never-ending tailspin? The answer is yes, as long as the bar is set at simply not being awful anymore as opposed to hanging some new flags in the stadium. Prospects are wonderful, and having one of the best, if not the best, farm systems in baseball is fantastic, but it’s more of a guarantee of betterment as opposed to becoming a good team, especially for a team that is starting at a level that might be comparable only to the 1899 Cleveland Spiders at this point.

The Orioles’ August misery has been defined by pitching. The offense has been below average, but not dreadful, with a wRC+ of 94 during the month, which ranks 19th among the 30 teams. The pitching, on the other hand, has been unimaginably awful. Here was Baltimore’s collective line during the losing streak:

It’s hard to be that bad. You could take a random Triple-A starter and expect better than that. The average start during the streak saw more runs allowed (4.53) than innings pitched (4.1).

It shouldn’t have to be like this. Major League Baseball’s rules should incentivize teams to put their best product on the field as opposed to what Baltimore (and others, to be fair) are doing. But for the purpose of this exercise, let’s stick to the unfortunate reality that is the worst big league roster combined with one of the best minor league systems. Does that combination automatically mean things will get better?

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Nightcrawling

As a night person, I love late-night baseball, and this weekend was ideal for that, with the most compelling series, at least in terms of playoff implications, all on the West Coast. The Giants and Dodgers both took two out of three from the A’s and Mets, respectively, so nothing changed at the top of the NL West standings, but keeping the status quo is at least slightly good news for San Francisco.

Meanwhile, the Padres continued to scuffle, needing a dramatic win on Saturday to avoid getting swept by Philadelphia. Losers of nine out of their last 11, all of the excuses for their poor play have revolved around a pitching staff being held together by glue and string after a crippling series of injuries. The offense deserves an equal brunt of the blame; in those 11 games, they’ve scored a grand total of 37 runs, and three of those contests were at Coors Field. It’s hard to call any series in August pivotal, but for San Diego — now closer to the Rockies than first place in the division and suddenly on the outside looking in for the Wild Card game —this week’s three-game set hosting the Dodgers feels like just that.

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