Kevin Goldstein FanGraphs Chat – 8/23/2021

Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. It’s Monday, it’s almost September, and things are heating up, at least in baseball. Let’s get to your questions.

Jon G: DJ Herz is running extreme strikeout rates in an age-appropriate assignment. He’s also been fairly inefficient, walking a fair amount and struggling to get beyond the first few innings. How certain of a relief projection is this, and conditional on a relief role, what is the upside?

Kevin Goldstein: He has a three pitch mix, he moves well and he’s in his first full season, so while there is definitely reliever risk due to command and pitch efficiency issues, it’s far to early to just assume he’s a pen piece. No reason to move him to the pen yet.

braves: looking for your thoughts on Indigo Diaz, he’s REALLY come on strong this year. Does he look like a stud RP in the bigs?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s pretty damn interesting. Big fastball in terms of both velocity and shape and the slider has improved as well. Definitely worth tracking.

Zev: Please talk me off the ledge about the 2021 Red Sox.

Kevin Goldstein: A. Our odds still have them at a 70+ percent chance of reaching the post-season.

Kevin Goldstein: B. It’s sports. You should never be on the ledge when it comes to sports.

Peterman: Screwed up the first submission—last week there was a video going around twitter of J-Rod absolutely murdering a 60mph meatball lobbed into his wheelhouse. How do front offices account for the huge gaps of talent a prospect might face in the minor leagues?

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it’s one PA among hundreds, so it’s not going to throw off anything.

Greg: Why was Gregory Polanco placed on outright waivers rather than DFA’d? What’s the difference? What happens now?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s on waivers, so if anyone wants him, they can have him. If nobody does, they can rescind them and keep him, which they will likely do. DFA would force an excise from the roster.

Cynthia: Who is the best teenage pitching prospect you’ve ever seen? Felix Hernandez is a name I’ve heard answered to this question, and Dylan Bundy and Julio Urias might be the best of the past decade.

Kevin Goldstein: Clayton Kershaw at Great Lakes in 2007.

Kevin Goldstein: (I’m not young)

Luxury Tax Enthusiast: What do you think a realistic number for the first LT threshold would be? 230 million? 250 million? We all complain about the Dodgers and the Yankees of the world but they need to keep running high payrolls if player salaries are going to continue to advance forward.

Kevin Goldstein: Why do we need any thresholds?

Dmitry: Why do batters get the “green light” for 3-0 counts? Why wouldnt they just swing based on the pitch as usual, instead of getting authorization before the fact??

Kevin Goldstein: A green light is just that. Swing if you want to instead of auto-take. It’s not an auto-swing, it’s just you are allowed to swing.

Bill: Drey Jameson has been really good this season. Have opinions changed on him to the point where he is seen as a future MLB starter now? Seems a good deal of write-ups I could find about him preseason suggested he was most likely bullpen bound at the MLB level. Thanks Kevin!

Kevin Goldstein: I think a lot of that was size bias. I thing he’s super athletic and definitely has a chance to start, but it’s not a slam dunk. He’s only thrown 60+ innings this year, so the jury is still out.

tim815: What is the likelihood of any substantive MLB Draft change, to prevent teams (ececutives) from sending out sub-standard rosters late in the season? There are a few ways it (change) could happen, but if the league is good with the current Cubs roster, why would there be any desire for change?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s hard to say, because the draft is usually the last thing either sides worries about, unfortunately.

B: What numbers, roughly, do you think would get the job done on the tax threshold/salary floor negotiations? I can’t imagine the players would agree on a cap. At least at a number the owners would be willing to go to

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t know, and neither to the players. There’s no way to accurately come up with a fair number until the owners open their books, and that’s not going to happen.

Jim: Heard anything on Braves prospect Vaughn Grissom – .409 OBP as a 20 year old seems pretty good in Low-A.

Kevin Goldstein: He is pretty good! I like the bat, in terms of on-base skills and contact ability, but worry that he’s not a SS, which puts more pressure on the offense.

Bill: Is George Valera ready for a promotion to Double A?

Kevin Goldstein: Maybe . . . probably. Not the end of the world if they don’t.

Alan: Would you rank Nick Yorke in the top 100 prospects if he goes to Greenville and continues to rake?

Kevin Goldstein: Personally I would, but a promotion really doesn’t play into it for me.

Kyle: Hey, thanks for doing this. Peyton Battenfield has been pretty sturdy at every stop this year, and seems to be doing it in spite of no pitch being called “plus” or “plus plus” by MLB or Fangraphs. Is he just using his mix well, and does that bode well for him as a potential starter? Or is he still a single-inning relief type?

Kevin Goldstein: He has plus pitches. Period. Shapes are really good.

Alan: Thoughts on Marcelo Mayer’s power potential? He just homered for the second straight game, and he’s still 18

Kevin Goldstein: It’s huge power potential. That’s one of the many reasons he was the top talent in the draft.

AL Central Enjoyer: What do you think the AL Central will look like in 2022? Chicago looks formidable, Cleveland could be even better, Detroit has been one of the best teams in the league since May, and the Twins can’t be this bad again, right?

Kevin Goldstein: This is a fun question. I don’t have a really insightful answer for you, but I certainly agree that many of us will be AL Central Enjoyers.

Derek: Wander Franco is very good!

Kevin Goldstein: Did anyone tell you otherwise?

Mitch Meluskey: Regarding the CBA – how are comp picks/QOs covered for this season and the 2022 draft if they are done away with in the next CBA? QOs will still exist for this upcoming free agent class since it is covered under the current CBA, correct?

Kevin Goldstein: Likely, they’ll go with the existing system for this off-season.

Ryan: What’s Josh Rojas best position? Is he destined as super utility or should he settle into one spot?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, there’s a uniqueness to his utility in that he can play a lot of positions, but none of them especially well. I’m a big believer in lineup flexibility, so no reason to leave him in one spot…

Brian: What was the thought process behind the Fields for Alvarez trade? Did you have any idea Yordan would be this good?

Kevin Goldstein: This good? No. The trade itself has a very funny story I should tell one day. The Astros we’re just looking for a longshot backfield guy w/ tools, and loved Alvarez as an amateur, thus the deal.

LC: There’s no way you’re actually this mad about MLB’s barstool partnership right? You’re just performatively upset to appease all the very online baseball personalities who have nothing else to do right?

Kevin Goldstein: Barstool is an ugly place that trades in veiled (and at times not so veiled) misogny, racism, anti-LGBTQ themes and general xenophobia. I’m not performative. I think they’re awful.

Hopeful: What team currently out of picture do you think could make a run at a playoff spot?

Kevin Goldstein: The Jays if Springer gets healthy?

AD: Willy Adames has played basically the equivalent of a half season with Milwaukee (80 G, 337 PA). He’s got 17 HR, 144 OPS+ and 3.4 Def runs above average. Have the Brewers found their franchise SS?

Kevin Goldstein: It really is the best in-season acquisition. He’ll be there for at least the next three years!

v2micca: The Yankees take their 9 game winning streak into ATL to face off against the Braves’ 9 game winning streak.  When was the last time something like this happened?

Kevin Goldstein: Um . . . I’m not Jayson Stark, who is wonderful. Maybe he’s chatting somewhere.

Jeff: Chances Corey Seager accepts a $1/25 kind of deal this winter? 1/$20?

Kevin Goldstein: Not gonna happen.

Keith: What is your take on Astros Jake Meyers? Seems like a pretty out of the blue breakout.

Kevin Goldstein: He just got better and better and better. he’s also a really good defensive player. Feels like an every day CF at this point.

Dooba Doo: what’s for lunch?

Kevin Goldstein: Ummmm . . . a salad? leftover felafel? both?

Bill: Are you worried about Kelenic at all?

Kevin Goldstein: Not a ton. He’s always been power over hit.

Marshall: Which do you think is the more likely explanation for the Giants leading their division: devil magic or luck?

Kevin Goldstein: How about neither? They are really good. Excellent pitching and fantastic lineup construction.

Erik: What would you guess the approximate spread in WAR between the best and worst managers is, and how do front offices evaluate them? I feel helpless judging them as an outsider, stuck looking at whether they sound dumb in press conferences or if they make the occasional weird bullpen move.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, in-game moves and press conference statements are about 2.5% of the job. A manager’s job is to get the best performances out of their players. It’s very hard to measure.

Josh: Edward Cabrera is reportedly getting called up for tomorrow’s start vs Washington. What type of upside do you realistically see with him?

Kevin Goldstein: With improved command, it’s a star. The stuff is quite excellent.

In D AH: Jon India, where does he need to improve the most?

Kevin Goldstein: Quality of ABs vs. RHP

Dan: Is Dansby Swanson’s hot streak tied to the crack down on “sticky stuff”

Kevin Goldstein: Doesn’t makes sense to me. Wouldn’t everyone get better if that was the case?

AL: Rookie of year, how HOT does Franco need to get to win the award? He always starts a new level slow, but has 20+ game on base streak and is looking way more comfortable

Kevin Goldstein: I’m the wrong guy to ask about this. I just don’t care about awards.

Erik: If front office members had a union that had a say during CBA negotiations, what sort of things would that group push for?

Kevin Goldstein: More reasonable hours.

Matt: Ryan Feltner has had an exceptional year and seems like he’s flying under the radar a bit. Does he have a chance to be a solid MLB starter?

Kevin Goldstein: Good name. Control and command up significantly, and the stuff has always been there.

B: What are some 80 tools in MLB? Do there necessarily have to be? Are the best tools at the time automatically 80, or is there a holistic, historical view to it?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s weird and far from perfect. Aaron Judge and Shohei have 80 power, Terrence Gore has 80 speed, etc. At the same time you almost never see 80s getting put on SS, CF or C defense.

Jacob: How often is Statcast/trackman data wrong? Curious about exit velos, ball distances.

Kevin Goldstein: It often needs to be recalibrated. EVs are generally accurate, but I’m not always sure about there distance measurements.

Dooba Doo: Are you a Wes Anderson fan? Any excitement for TFD?

Kevin Goldstein: Yes; yes.

Kevin Goldstein: Man, think about Matt Damon in a Wes Anderson movie! It might finally be a great Matt Damon movie!

Jacob: How is a pitch label determined? Is it label by Statcast, or does someone at the stadium label it?

Kevin Goldstein: Statcast knows what a pitcher throws, so each pitch is tagged by Statcast based on that pitcher’s arsenal.

Rich: Felix valerio of the Brewers is doing very well .any thoughts on him?

Kevin Goldstein: He’s a little dude who can hit, but he’ll have to keep going as he’s a 2B in the end.

Aussie Mate: What position does Curtis Mead play in the show?

Kevin Goldstein: 60/40 1B/3B.

Justin: Anthony Volpe a top 25 prospect after a .300/20/20 season?

Kevin Goldstein: Feels like Top 50; Top 25 is tbd.

Danny: Have you heard anything about Jasson Dominguez? His stats are nothing special but he’s also just 18 getting his first pro ABs. Does he look overwhelmed?

Kevin Goldstein: I do have some worries about how damn big he’s gotten….

Who’s Fabio?: Life is Beautiful is the best film I have ever seen.  Do you think similarly high of this motion picture?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t, but if you love it, that’s great. It’s good to love art.

TT: Keller, Bubic, Hernandez, Lynch, Singer.  All relatively young, a somewhat diverse group.  Are there any better current young rotations in the MLB?

Kevin Goldstein: Which one of those guys has a ceiling above a No. 3?

Erik: The last time two teams with 9-game winning streaks faced each other was the Pirates and Phillies in 1901, per Sarah Langs on Twitter just now

Kevin Goldstein: There you go! Sarah is pretty great too. Go follow on Twitter.

Sodo Mojo: You have Brash, Williamson, Stoutd, and Campbell from the Mariners systems pegged as relief pitchers on the board.  Which one of those is most likely to surprise you and stick as a starter long term?

Kevin Goldstein: Williamson.

Ben: What % of baseball players do you think would switch to the average office job if they could make the same amount of money?

Kevin Goldstein: 1.8318435%

Dooba Doo: falafel from Jamrah or The Huddle? Not sure who else in DeKalb sells it haha

Kevin Goldstein: Wife made it. Jamrah is really good though.

Don: Does Appel ever make a big league appearance?

Kevin Goldstein: It would be a fun story, but tough to see the path at this point.

O-we-o-oles: Another guy that looks better than his prospect ratings is Taylor Jones. Good plate approach, power and surprising positional versatility for a 6-foot-7 guy. Thoughts on his long-term potential?

Kevin Goldstein: Corner bench bat upside.

ElGuapo: Rays don’t have to choose (but you do in this hypothetical). From today onward would you take McLanahan or Baz? Seems like Baz has the pedigree, health and lack of injury McLanahan does. But McLanahan has all that sweet sweet performance at the ML level. Just a case of being able to see one guy more or has McLanahan shown things that justify an upgrade. Not that he was a bad prospect to start with but this has to be anupper percentile outcome.

Kevin Goldstein: Baz.

Dooba Doo: Hoerner injured again, yeesh.

Kevin Goldstein: Bah, no biggie. Just get him healthy for 2022.

ElGuapo: Percent chance Carlos Hernandez becomes the best Royals start over the next 3-5 years? extra decimal appreciated. Seriously, though, he’s doing stuff, the other prospects have been kind of meh or are still always off from the majors.

Kevin Goldstein: I’d take him over the ballyhooed ’18 draft group….

John B: Why does MLB skew the draft so much to the worst teams.  Why not a lottery?  Why not lower slot values of the first few picks ? Aren’t they semi-creating the boom-bust by virtue of the rules ?

Kevin Goldstein: Not semi-creating. Flat out creating. We’ll see what happens in the CBA, but the union at least SEEMS like they want to address it.

Max: Can the Mets contend if deGrom misses all of next year?

Kevin Goldstein: With the right off-season, yes, but it certainly creates a significant challenge.

Judge: Did anyone notice Judge has genuinely cut his K rate significantly? He’s never going to go 2017 again, but he’s just sort of a solid 5 WAR type when he’s on the field.

Kevin Goldstein: I noticed.

Jed Hoyer: The Cubs seem to be tinkering a lot with guys with age and peripherals that aren’t super enticing (like Ortega and Wisdom). How do you think they’ll deal with the fact that besides Davis, most of their interesting farm guys are pretty young. More to the point, what’s a realistic contention timeline

Kevin Goldstein: Next year might be REAL ugly.

Ronald: Can I get a movie suggestion for tonight? Something a bit dark with some of that same type of humor mixed in, perhaps?

Kevin Goldstein: I finally saw Putney Swope last night and that fits the bill perfectly.

onomatopoeia: Would/can teams require vaccination of staff/players now that pfizer has full FDA approval?

Kevin Goldstein: They won’t, but they absolutely should.

I am the walrus: Do you see any FA signing this off season until there is a CBA agreement in place?

Kevin Goldstein: Could happen. The CBA expires on 12/1, and things will be frozen in terms of transactions once that happens.

Finnegan’s Seam-Shifted Wake: Schwindel > Ortega > Wisdom in terms of potentially “real” bat?

Kevin Goldstein: I’d flip Wisdom and Ortega, but it’s not like any of these dudes are stars.

Dave: What is the shrtest window you could imagine workings between signing the CBA and starting up the season?

Kevin Goldstein: For everything to go on-time, you’d need to have something done in February.

Okra: What are Fangraphs’ plans if we get hit with a long work stopage?

Kevin Goldstein: Still plenty of baseball. Minors still happen, amateur still happens, international still happens, and then there are the labor issues themselves to address. Maybe I’ll write about sumo as well!

Seamball: We need thresholds to generate revenue to share with the smaller market teams.

Kevin Goldstein: “small” market teams still make plenty of money.

Cole: Which free agent SP would you be most interested in this winter: Ray, Gausman, Rodon, Stroman?

Kevin Goldstein: Gausman.

Roger: Performance basically equal, would most front offices give the opportunity to the higher draft pick (higher bonus)? Or is the saying about higher draft picks getting more chances inaccurate internally?

Kevin Goldstein: I think once you are in the pros, it’s all merit based.

Dave: Do you think the pandemic makes it more or less likely we get a deal in a reasonable timeframe?

Kevin Goldstein: Neither.

PDX Yank: On a wild pitch, with a runner on 3rd – that scores. Does the batter get an RBI. Guess prob not, even though a better hitter might ’cause’ it…

Kevin Goldstein: Nope, no RBI there.

Stros: Assuming he is considered healthy, what kind of deal do you expect Verlander to get this offseason?

Kevin Goldstein: Some kind of one-year make good deal.

Roger.-: Thoughts on Logan Webb?

Kevin Goldstein: How about it? Good lesson that command can be as important as stuff.

Mick: Percentages on a lockout/work stoppage?

Kevin Goldstein: Chances of the CBA expiring: 98.456123%; Chances of an actual work stoppage: 51.34194%

Joseph: Re Logan Webb: How would you grade his command right now?

Kevin Goldstein: 70?

JD: Is 3yr 45m too steep for Canha with his current slump factored in?

Kevin Goldstein: That feels exceptionally steep.

MFG1975: SumoGraphs. Make it happen!

Kevin Goldstein: Meg just rolls her eyes every time I say it.

comish4lif: KG, a number of years ago, someone (Scott Boras?) noted that between revenue sharing, tv deals, etc, each team – even the poorest teams – began the season with ~$80-100 million. Was that accurate an accurate statement? And what is the current figure?

Kevin Goldstein: We don’t know the current figure because the books are not open. It’s an estimate, and not a bad one. The bigger issue in 2022 is all of the money teams are making in things they can keep off the pure baseball profit and loss statement, especially real estate.

Dave: Triston McKenzie looking good lately.  Was this ceiling always there or is this a surprise?

Kevin Goldstein: Ceiling was there.

Dooba Doo: Over/under 3.5 NFL games watched by you this season?

Kevin Goldstein: WAY under. 0.5 is a better mark.

Chris: Do you agree with fangraphs projection that the mariners only have a 3.2% chance at the playoffs? They play Arizona and kc a lot

Kevin Goldstein: I agree with that number.

Sam: What’s your take on MJ Melendez? He’s hitting the proverbial crap out of the ball – better Double A stats than Rutschman despite being a year younger. Have you had a chance to see him this year? What’s his ceiling?

Kevin Goldstein: His ceiling is an All-Star catcher. He’s very impressive.

what he’s really asking: I think he’s wondering why don’t they always get a 3-0 green light.

Kevin Goldstein: I think there should be more green lights, but not universal.

ALWC: Are the Yankees the only ALWC team that’s actually playing well right now?

Kevin Goldstein: Sure, but there’s still almost six weeks to go, and as we’ve seen in the last month, things can turn on a dime in both directions.

Dan: Instead of a hard floor if a team is rebuilding they put what ever amount is less than the floor in escrow then it’s automatically spent on salary in X years. Lots of details to work out of course but it makes sense in my head. Would something like this make a floor more palatable to the players?

Kevin Goldstein: I think a floor IS palatable to players, just not one that comes with a lower threshold on the other side…

Brian: There is minor league baseball if the CBA expires? How does that work? Only guys not on a 40 man roster?

Kevin Goldstein: Correct.

Dave: I know 3.5 games at this stage is a big gap, but do you really put the Astros at 92% to take the division?

Kevin Goldstein: Feels right.

Duck: I hear it changes when it becomes your job (understandable), but who are some players, if any, that you just enjoy watching, stats and w/e else aside?

Kevin Goldstein: I think you can find interesting players in pretty much every game. Royals/Cubs over the weekend was a struggle, but I really like players and like watching players.

elGuapo: Spencer Strider SP or RP? thanks for all the good work!

Kevin Goldstein: Lean towards starter, but just a lean.

Steve O: Would the Yankees sign Correa this offseason and trade Gleyber or is that unrealistic with their big FA class after 2022? Judge, Gallo, Taillon, Green, Sanchez are FAs.

Kevin Goldstein: I think Correa is a perfect fit for NYY. I do wonder how the fans would take it…..

John Jacob Jingleheimer Schmidt: Is your apathy towards football because of the inherent health issues with the game or is it just that you don’t find it entertaining? Or some hybrid of the two…

Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it’s gross in terms of the health stuff, but yeah, I just find the game excessively boring. I feel that way about most, if not all sports, other than Sumo, of course, which is awesome.

Sam: Is there any way the CBA addresses paying more to minor league players, or does no one care about them at all?

Kevin Goldstein: Neither side has any interest in helping them….

>this guy<: Kevin you answer the most questions and very quickly. Thanks.

Kevin Goldstein: I type fast. Mom made me take a typing class in high school (again, I’m old), and I’m always thankful for it.

Bearry: Rays with a 62.5% chance to take the division with a 4.5 game lead. Low, high, or feels right?

Kevin Goldstein: Feels right. I’m a big believer in our odds system.

RP: Who would you guess is the reliever with the highest fWAR in the AL? Not at all who I would have expected, because reliever WAR is weird.

Kevin Goldstein: Reliever WAR is very weird, and honestly [looks around nervously] maybe not the best way to measure relievers.

JupiterBrando: I’d like to preface this by saying that this is not a rhetorical question: What’s wrong with the Mets?

Kevin Goldstein: The perfect and brutal combination of team health and underperformance.

Randy: Why did Altuve suffer such a regression in 2020? I wouldn’t expect his numbers to sustain where they were (and you can see a declining trend) but it seems like such an anomaly. Did the cheating reveal really promote the yips hitting that hard?

Kevin Goldstein: 2020 was weird for everyone. So many factors we will never really understand. I think models might be better off just ignoring that season.

Jono: Thinking CBA and free agency: what about allowing players their opportunities at age FA 25, 30, 35 years old, 40, etc regardless of big league service time (except with fewer than 3 years in an org- so a 22 YO college senior doesn’t hit free agency until 30 )? This way, you eliminate service manipulation and get 29 year old RPs and journeymen with some success a first contract before theyre 35 years old.

Kevin Goldstein: I think there are simpler solutions, like just starting some kind of clock upon signing.

Dave: For years now the Mets have had suspect medical outcomes. Is this bad luck, bad personel or a process problem?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s really impossible to know from the outside.

Manny: Give me your wild card picks

Kevin Goldstein: NYY/BOS; SFG/SDP

JupiterBrando: Let’s say every player in MLB was still a prospect, and you were evaluating them based on the tools they have now but not the stats you’ve seen them put up. How many of them would be 80 overall?

Kevin Goldstein: 80 what? There would be some 80 raw power guys and some 80 runner but no 80 hits.

Jacob: Is spin efficiency one of the things Astros, Rays etc believe they can fix and target guys who don’t have good spin efficiency?

Kevin Goldstein: Far better to have it first and then harness it correctly than try to teach it.

Craig: What would a corner OF like Andrew Benintendi fetch on the open market this year?

Kevin Goldstein: Not much. Maybe a one-year pillow deal w/ a bad team.

Appa Yip Yip: Re: reliever WAR – for an individual player it seems squiffy, but what about WAR for the entire bullpen all added up? Does that shave off some rough edges, or is it also weird and unreliable?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that definitely helps, but still has some issues.

Chris: Do you think most players are generally able to shut out distractions from fans, or does stuff like the hatred directed at the Astros players actually affect them?

Kevin Goldstein: They can shut them out.

Dave: Isn’t there something broken in the 80/20 scale if no one is ever an 80 or a 20 in certain things?

Kevin Goldstein: There are many things broken if you are looking for some sort of perfect adherence, but it creates a language that people understand.

Guest: Pretty sure he meant 80 FV (or perhaps “present value” in this hypothetical) and you probably guessed that too… Not sure why the snark was necessary in response to what was a pretty interesting question!

Kevin Goldstein: Calm down, I just didn’t see it that way because I don’t think in FVs. I doubt you’d put an 80 on any of them.

Tom: I was thinking about Dave Dombrowski’s tenure in Boston, and it led to a question: How does the industry evaluate GM’s who come in and immediately trade away future assets for current ones? Do “flags fly forever” in that case?

Kevin Goldstein: FLAGS FLY FOREVER.

goober: Who are your favorite under-the-radar FAs this coming winter? Any pitchers like Robbie Ray who might be a few tweaks away from greatness?

Kevin Goldstein: Props to the Jays for tweaking Ray. He’s been outstanding. This is a good article idea. Note taken.

Manny: Guys like Mookie or Trout don’t have 80 hit tools? Arraez even? Thanks for taking so many questions and almost always staying around so long btw

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think either of them have 80 hit tools. Both are around .300 career hitters.

Juan Soto: I have an 80 hit tool.

Kevin Goldstein: Career .298 hitter, hitting .305 this year. Nope.

Sean: The M’s will probably miss the playoffs again, but is there any value for the young players winning games, especially close games?  Or does it not carry over from one season to the next?

Kevin Goldstein: I think the experience does help, yes.

Kretin: Did you ever think Stassi would turn out to be this successful?

Kevin Goldstein: I didn’t, but I’m glad it did. One of the nicest players I ever dealt with.

JB: Padres fired Larry Rothschild as pitching coach. I get it. But also, they signed Jake Arietta last week.

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, exactly. It’s always easy to fire the manager/coach.

Derek: Isn’t the general idea that every 10 points away from 50 on the 20/80 scale represents one standard deviation from average? In which case it could make perfect sense that no players are 3 standard deviations better or worse than average in certain skills depending on the distributions of those skills across the player base, right?

Kevin Goldstein: That is the general idea yes, but as stated, the way the 20-80 scale is utilized is not perfect adherence, but it is something that everyone understands, which is more important.

Marn: I think the Reds will surprise and beat out the Padres

Kevin Goldstein: Certainly could happen!

Bearry: Should hit tool include plate discipline? Or is that a separate tool?

Kevin Goldstein: Approach as a tool has been long debated. It certainly needs to be accounted for in any hitting evaluation, but it’s not the hit tool.

Josh: Did Tony Gwynn have a 80 hit tool?

Kevin Goldstein: You bet your bippy.

Ichiro: Did I have an 80 hit tool?

Kevin Goldstein: Indeed. Now you’re getting it!

Tom: You were right at the beginning of the year – Ty France is a hitter.  He is also playing a very good 1B.  Is there an All Star in there?

Kevin Goldstein: I think that’s pushing it, but he definitely has value.

JupiterBrando: Do we see a game with the Phantom Thieves again or does Atlus move on entirely with P6?

Kevin Goldstein: I’m more interesting in what SMT 5 looks like at the end of the day….

Gevin Koldstein: What issue are you most confident will be addressed in the new CBA?

Kevin Goldstein: Service time manipulation.

JupiterBrando: You’ve said before that you wouldn’t take the Rockies GM job if offered it. How many other teams would you also reject? If it’s a matter of just not wanting to be a GM, are there any teams you wouldn’t be able to say no to?

Kevin Goldstein: Honest answer: I loved my time in baseball, but the past 10 months have given me a lot of time to reflect on it as well. I’m not sure I want back in. It would have to be REALLY right personally, and working for and with the RIGHT people. I’m not really looking for it, and really enjoying what I’m currently doing. FanGraphs has been great, and I’m really enjoying writing and podcasting.

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: How would you help teams that have problems sign premium free agents? It’s not fair to teams like KC or Min will never be able to get an Ohtani or Cole.

Kevin Goldstein: Here’s a little secret. They can afford those huge contracts too.

Dave: How much do FOs consider player fit in the locker room? Is there ever conversation around “Free Agent XXX is an obvious upgrade for our lineup, but we think he’ll clash too much with our current veterans/stars”?

Kevin Goldstein: Massive consideration. Maybe more so than some know. That said, MOST players can fit in just fine.

Pat: Was Miggy an 80 hit tool in his prime? Say 2010-2015?

Kevin Goldstein: Oh yeah.

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: I know they can afford it, but the players don’t want to go there.

Kevin Goldstein: That’s more fair, but that’s also just kind of how it is. It’s not going to just be made fair across the board, and I’m not sure it should be.

Dave: Can’t we address the K rate issue just by limiting roster flexibilty?  If you can’t ferry guys between AAA and the Majors every day all season long, you’ll need to have the guys on your roster pitch more innings

Kevin Goldstein: and get hurt….

Correa: And I don’t think Correa would fit in with the Bronx clubhouse.

Kevin Goldstein: Why not? Because fans hate him? Correa is a great presence in a clubhouse.

BettsBellingerCaruso: Is there still a stigma against guys w/ weird submarine/sidearm deliveries like Rogers, Jake Reed etc?

Really really loved Byunghyun Kim as a kid and I want more dominant sidearm/submarine relievers

Kevin Goldstein: It’s not a stigma. If they’re really good, they’ll play. Just not a lot of really good ones.

Billy G: Does the CBA situation have any impact on the A’s stadium situation?

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think so. You’re talking about a very very long-term situation compared to the CBA bump in the road.

Daniel: How much longer do you think Preller has? Great farm systems and promising teams aside, how much longer of not seeing tangible results at the big league level (expanded postseason appearance last season aside too)?

Kevin Goldstein: It’s becoming a fair question. You can only ‘win’ the off-season so many times.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok, just a few more and then I gotta make room for Mr. Clemens or he gets very angry, and nobody wants to see that.

Laffy Jaffe Taffy: Furthering the fairness point, shouldn’t the goal of the league (other than making money) be to have every team have the exact same chances to put forth a competitive club to compete for a championship? I agree that it’s just how it is, but for all the squabbles between teams and players, fans just want a chance to see a winning club.

Kevin Goldstein: Should it? Isn’t it good to have power houses and little guys to root for?

RAGBRAI: Are the Cubs the right choice for next year’s FOD game? Is that the team MLB. wants to show off, with no known names. As an Iowan I would say pick a better competitive team. IMO.

Kevin Goldstein: Good or bad, the Cubs are a huge national draw.

Salty: Taking an optimistic tone in saying a CBA gets done in time for a full season next year, what’s the % chance universal DH gets done?  Greater than 90?

Kevin Goldstein: I think it would be likely. 90% feels high, but certainly over 50%.

Appa Yip Yip: Perhaps Yankees fans are saltier about 2017 than most but it really didn’t take long for Jays fans to start yelling Springer Dinger from the rooftops. If Correa plays well fans will get over it.

Kevin Goldstein: I totally agree.

Will: with the consolidation of the minors, is there any issue this year with teams finding space for all their incoming draft picks? or is the minor league roster crunch not a big consideration, especially combined with the smaller draft?

Kevin Goldstein: Teams adjusted to it prior to the draft already.

Correa: Wouldn’t anyone from 2017 be mad about the trashcans and his… not great response to all of it?

Kevin Goldstein: They’d get over it after he went deep and then got to a ball in the hole and made a throw no other shortstop can make.

Jacob: If the Yankees hadn’t won as many championships as they have I don’t think baseball is what it is today.

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think this is a bad take.

Daniel: The Cubs are gonna be fine, right? Stutter step or whatever this is, they’ll be fine in short order, don’t you think?

Kevin Goldstein: Short order? No.

Dave: Please keep your preverted version of baseball to the AL, nearly all NPB, KBO, and the minor leagues.  Leave the NL alone as a paragon of pure baseball

Kevin Goldstein: DHs are good.

SJ: I’m sure you don’t play MLB The Show because I know I wouldn’t play a video game about my job but get ready for the Edward Cabrera memes

Kevin Goldstein: I don’t play it, and wish I got this. Talk to Sporer about it.

Steve O: Did the MLBPA make a mistake by sacrificing expanded rosters in September for one spot all year, plus 2 additional spots in September? Seems like they could’ve allowed like 5 additional spots or something, instead of going straight down to 2.

Kevin Goldstein: The union has made a lot of mistakes in the past few years, which is the primary reason I think this one is going to get ugly . . . they have lots to make up for. I was gonna end here, but I should find something more positive.

Giants: Don’t you think Buster Posey is worth at least 10 WAR this year?  I don’t think it’s a coincidence that he’s back and the Giants are this good again.   He really must be an incredible game caller.

Kevin Goldstein: Go look at the Giants record when Casali catches, it’s even better.

Kevin Goldstein: Ok folks, time to each lunch and make space for Ben Clemens. I hope you flood him with as many questions as I got!