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On Ghosts and Pickpockets: How the Dodgers Swiped NLDS Game 2

Baseball lends itself to stories, October baseball perhaps most of all. During the regular season, a team’s narrative can unfurl slowly. The postseason, by contrast, is marked by the frantic crowning of heroes and chokers. Subplots abound, and the identity of the game’s central character isn’t always clear until the late innings.

After losing to the San Francisco Giants, 4–0, in Game 1 of the NLDS, the Los Angeles Dodgers hoped to even the series on Saturday. The Giants, for their part, were looking to push the Dodgers to the edge of elimination. In the process, the two teams told three different tales.

The Hero’s Journey, Deferred
If you had told the Giants in June that Kevin Gausman would be starting Game 2 of the NLDS, they would have been thrilled. Heading into the All-Star break, he had posted a 1.73 ERA and a 2.57 FIP, led by a four-seam fastball that finishes batters high and a devilish splitter that wipes them out low and is among the best in the game.

But after a scintillating first half, Gausman faltered. He posted a 4.42 ERA and a 3.65 FIP. His splitter had less sink. He tinkered with his pitch mix, toying with throwing more sliders and what Pitch Info classifies as changeups, though not to particularly great effect. The final month of the season suggested a course correction, though not quite a return to form, an assessment seemingly shared by Gabe Kapler when he tapped Logan Webb to start Game 1 of the series.

And for the first few innings of Saturday’s game, you could see why. Gausman threw first-pitch balls to three of the first four batters he faced. In the second, Chris Taylor doubled. After a Cody Bellinger strikeout, Gausman fell behind AJ Pollock, 2–0, and Kapler opted to put him on intentionally to get to Julio Urías. But the pitcher and his .203 season average slapped a hanging splitter for a single, scoring Taylor; Mookie Betts followed with an RBI single of his own (his third hit this series and fifth this postseason).

It looked like Gausman’s night might end half an inning later, as Kapler almost pinch hit Tommy La Stella for his starter when San Francisco threatened after a Wilmer Flores walk and a Brandon Crawford single. Ultimately, though, he thought better of it when a Donovan Solano sacrifice fly plated a run and pushed the Giants to two outs, and Gausman rewarded that faith by settling down and retiring the next nine batters he faced. It seemed like it might be the sort of start that, provided the Giants rallied, would be described as gritty — not dominant, but necessary in the march to the World Series.

Then the sixth inning hit.

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FanGraphs Dodgers/Giants NLDS Game 1 Chat

9:30
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Let’s get weird.

9:31
Kevin Goldstein: Thanks so much for joining us tonight. We love doing these, and they’ve been a big hit this week.

9:31
Luke Hooper: Now that Young Sheldon is over, the real fun can begin!

9:31
Nicklaus Gaut: Welcome, everyone!

9:32
Kevin Goldstein: I’m here with Luke Hooper and we will be watching Dodgers/Giants and the rest of this wacky game in Tampa. We will provide insight, hopefully some laughs, weird polls, and of course, you can ask us . . . well anything!

9:32
Nicklaus Gaut: I’m all jacked up on expresso and am ready to start.

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Effectively Wild Episode 1756: Ichabod Crane Comes to Bat

EWFI

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Eric Longenhagen banter about Walker Buehler’s unusual approach to opening beers and their own past dental emergencies before recapping the AL Wild Card game. They consider what went wrong for the Yankees, and assess the Red Sox’s good starters, potent lineup, and shaky defense, as well as Nick Pivetta and Garrett Richards. Next they shift to the Red Sox/Rays ALDS matchup and consider the state of Tampa Bay’s pitching, the Rays’ talented hitters, and whether playoff experience (or a lack thereof) will matter for Tampa’s young starters. After that it’s on to the Astros and White Sox, featuring an embarrassment of good hitters including Kyle Tucker and Luis Robert, plus Houston’s talented pitching and Chicago’s dominant bullpen. Then they wrap up with thoughts on the NL Wild Card and play a game of stumpo with Arizona Fall League rosters. Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs White Sox/Astros ALDS Game 1 Chat

4:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to our AL Division Series Game 1 chat! We’ll be starting things off shortly

4:02
Jon Becker: Hi everybody! So glad you could be here with us for some afternoon ball.

4:02
Luke Hooper: What’s up! Excited for a good day of ball to get started.

4:06
Avatar David Laurila: Greetings, all.

4:08
Luke Hooper: ZiPS has this as the closest series of the opening round. 50.1 to 49.9 in favor of Houston.

4:08
Avatar David Laurila: Not worth a poll, but today’s Lance matchup begs a question: Who is the best-ever baseball Lance? Berkman and Parrish are presumably the top candidates?

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FanGraphs 2021 NL Wild Card Chat

8:00
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone! Thanks so much for joining us for another Wild Card chat. We hope you had fun yesterday and we can’t believe you came back tonight.

8:01
Kevin Goldstein: I’m here with Nickalus Gaut, and Eric Longenhagen will be here soon as he’s stuck in traffic.

8:02
Kevin Goldstein:

Who are you rooting for?

Cardinals (34.9% | 73 votes)
 
Dodgers (29.6% | 62 votes)
 
Good Baseball (28.2% | 59 votes)
 
I’m just here to see Steven Souza play (7.1% | 15 votes)
 

Total Votes: 209
8:03
Farhandrew Zaidman: With the benefit of hindsight, Pollock seems like a good contract, yeah? Dodger fans were decidedly split on him pre-2020.

8:03
Kevin Goldstein: Hard to say no.

8:04
Nicklaus Gaut: Thanks for coming by everyone! I’m coming live to you from the epicenter of Cardinals devil magic…David Eckstein has sacrificed a rooster and I’ve sacrificed my body by eating Imo’s Pizza and White Castle all day, so the CDM is cooking. Here’s to a great game!

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FanGraphs 2021 AL Wild Card Chat

8:00
Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone! Thanks for coming. I’m here with the FanGraphs Midwest crew, as Jon Becker and I are in Illinois and Dan Szymborski is in Ohio, but we’re thrilled to join you for the drama that is taking place on the East Coast. We will talk about the game, answer your questions, and who knows what kind of tangents. First a foremost, we’re happy you’re here.

8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: G’evening!

8:01
Jon Becker: Hello everybody! Very happy to be here with my two colleagues and all of you lovely chatters for my first FanGraphs chat!

8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hopefully chatting with me won’t be too traumatic!

8:01
Kevin Goldstein: Everyone be nice to Jon.

8:02
Jimmie Foxxalorian: pins and needles all day in anticipation of this game! Sox will win, 5-4 in bottom of 9th. That is all.

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Here’s Who’s Going to (Maybe) Win the 2021 World Series

We may have been robbed of tiebreaker madness, but this season’s playoffs still promise to deliver great matchups, with division rivalries, electric starters, potent bats, and a bit of devil magic thrown in for good measure. And though the field boasts a number of dominant teams that seem poised for deep runs, a lot can happen in a short series. That makes it difficult to predict how October will unfold, but 28 of our writers from FanGraphs and RotoGraphs answered the call.

Below are our predictions by league and round, as well as each writer’s complete forecast. Happy playoffs! Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1755: Chaos Letdown

EWFI

Meg Rowley and guest co-host Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus recap the final weekend of regular season baseball before previewing this week’s Wild Card games. They discuss the Mariners’ decision not to promote Julio Rodríguez, their disappointment at the lack of tiebreaker games, franchise player farewells, the current playoff format, what comes next for Seattle and Toronto, and what they’re most excited to watch in October. Then they turn their attention to the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, and Cardinals, offering their thoughts on what each squad should feel confident and nervous about going into the play-in games. Finally, they try to solve the mystery of Hunter Renfroe’s defense. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 1754: Never Tell Me the Odds

EWFI

With the postseason around the corner, Meg Rowley and guest co-host Ben Clemens discuss the playoff picture, how the Seattle Mariners got where they are, which team Ben would prefer to see his Cardinals match up against in the NL Wild Card, and the biggest surprises of the season. Then they discuss Ben’s recent work assessing FanGraphs’ playoff odds, what the odds do well and less-well, what kinds of teams they tend to be too low on or overestimate, and how the model could improve. They also offer some theories about why we seem to struggle with probabilistic thinking, look back on what they’ll miss most about the 2021 regular season, and share some brief Cy Young thoughts. Read the rest of this entry »


Presenting the FanGraphs 2021 Trade Deadline Roundup

Over the past two weeks, the FanGraphs staff has written over 50 pieces dedicated to analyzing the 2021 trade deadline, from Jay Jaffe’s Replacement-Level Killers series, which previewed teams’ positions of need, to Eric Longenhagen’s breakdown of the teams with impending 40-man roster crunch, to our analysis of every deadline move, to Ben Clemens and Dan Szymborski’s recaps of the deadline’s winners and losers. It’s a lot to sort through, so to assist you in finding anything you may have missed during the flurry, I’ve rounded up all of our deadline pieces in one place. You’ll find the broader preview and summary pieces (of which we’ll have a few more today, so stay tuned) listed first, followed by a team-by-team listing of the transaction analyses that involved your favorite squad, either as buyers or sellers. In instances where we dissected a transaction across multiple pieces — hello, Max Scherzer/Trea Turner trade! — you’ll see them grouped together.

As always, all of the pieces linked below are free to read, but they took time and resources to produce. If you enjoyed our coverage of the trade deadline and are in a position to do so, we hope you’ll sign up for a FanGraphs Ad-free Membership. It’s the best way to support our work and experience the site. Now, on to the roundup! Read the rest of this entry »