FanGraphs Red Sox/Astros ALCS Game 3 Chat

by
October 18, 2021
8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Good evening!
8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For a day of events of a baseball nature.
8:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well an evening
8:03
Guest: How can hundreds of Fenway seats be unsold?
8:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dunno, price?
8:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: How many are unsold?

8:03
Joey Wheeler: Any thoughts on Siri?
8:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Weirdly interesting now.
8:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s one player whose ZiPS I’m really fascinated into digging into; I don’t have final minor league translations fully done yet
8:04
Guest: Who’s going to score the most runs?
8:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The winner, silly!
8:04
Big Hairy Clock: Only the somewhat cold temperatures tonight have me thinking this won’t be a 12-9 type of slugfest.
8:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Baseball is happy to overthrow any logic and reasoning at the drop of a cap!
8:04
Lzfreak: Over/under 4 hours for this game?
8:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll say over.
8:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: hey hey, folks!
8:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey Jay!
8:05
Guest: Is there a useful rule of thumb e.g. for every 5 degrees of temperature, runs per game go down by X?
8:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i’d like to believe that just once the Red Sox can play a game at Fenway that doesn’t last 4 hours.
8:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really
8:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, there’s a relationship
8:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But the numbers aren’t that neat and the variance is crazy
8:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: lower temperatures mean less carry for the ball, which can cut into homers of course
8:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Using same teams, it’s like 0.5 r/g/team between the coldest and the hottest games
8:08
tamuaggiedude: Will Urquidy get more that 12 outs, please say yes.
8:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll say over.
8:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Only because if he’s pitching well, I think the Astros might push him a few more batters than they would otherwise
8:09
Bill: Loved the article today, Jay, about declining IP. Is the data easily accessible from somewhere? What I’m curious about is the shape of those average IP values by year, so I was thinking about whipping up some histograms.
8:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Thanks. Sadly, it’s a grind to compile the data; I use Stathead and then piece it together. This time I’m actually going to save my spreadsheet with an easily recognizable title so when I revisit this stuff next year i don’t have to reinvent the wheel, though.
8:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: But yes, histograms would be interesting, I think.
8:11
Jason: How does ZiPS incorporate postseason stats? Like for instance what is the degree of impact Logan Webb’s two postseason starts will have? Like two additional regular season starts or due to it being the postseason would it be more heavily weighted due to importance of the game and quality of opponent?
8:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t found weighting them differently to be needed. More important in this context is more philosophical than predictive
8:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I cram it down to a per 162 game context
8:11
Italian beef w/ giardiniera: Best singular jersey left in the playoffs? I’ll go Dodgers home
8:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 80s astros!
8:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: it ain’t these red Red Sox jerseys
8:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t mind these
8:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m all for the Dodgers’ home jersey as the single best in the sport
8:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though Red Sox classic is better
8:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: the Red Sox regular home jersey is much nicer
8:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I like having lots of alternates and I wish more teams would do interesting alternates
8:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The A’s shouldn’t get to participate in revenue sharing if they don’t play at least 10 home games a year in the gold.
8:13
Jeremy: +1 for Red Sox regular home jerseys over tonight’s.
8:13
kyle: I like the colorful home jerseys – Astros orange tops are also very nice.
8:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, regular is better. But I don’t hate these
8:14
kyle: Astros old red tops were bad though
8:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yikes I had forgotten those
8:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like the Diamondbacks rust ones, but they just don’t work for the Astros
8:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

8:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: *chef’s kiss*
8:16
Jake Cave: I don’t miss the red jerseys but I miss the CF hill
8:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was a real logistics nightmare
8:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: everyone on the field pretty much hated it
8:17
Ben Schneider: It would have been fun if the Astros wore 2005 throwbacks against the White Sox
8:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ESPECIALLY if…
8:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

8:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: throwbacks for a rematch series should have been mandatory
8:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Solid stab by Devers there
8:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: but then who knows how apeshit Chris Sale would have gone with scissors
8:18
Avatar Jay Jaffe: yeah, nice play by Devers, whose fielding numbers were… not good
8:18
Avatar Jay Jaffe: -13 DRS, -5.5 UZR, -13 OAA. YIKES
8:18
Jeremy: How unusual is E Rod pitching off the right side of the rubber as a lefty?
8:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly not the norm
8:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the orthodox one is to try to dominate the platoon matchups with the placement
8:19
sadman: Jay, you tweeted, so now i’m here.
8:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: welcome to the party!
8:19
kyle: It’s impossible to find an officially licensed JR Richard jersey which has always bothered me
8:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe retailers can only sell officially licensed mersh with the names of current players
8:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: had the same problem coming up with a Fernando Valenzuela jersey but I found a dodgy enough place to do it
8:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: mind you this was about 18 years ago
8:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wonder if in Rodriguez’s case, he picked up the habit as a kid? He used to be right-handed growing up
8:20
Johnny J: If BOS wins the WS this year, are they the luckiest American sports team of the millennium?
8:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The luckiest team is whoever faces the Twins
8:21
Greg: Jay: your Pilots jersey is gorgeous.
8:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe: thank you!
8:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ve only got that, the Fernando, and an El Paso Chihuahuas one from the time I got to throw out a first pitch in connection with The Cooperstown Casebook (I’ve had a recurring spot on ESPN El Paso for over a decade now). Oh and a David Cone navy batting practice Yankees jersey .That’s my entire collection, and none of it gets worn very often.
8:21
Jeremy: That Devers play was a reminder that even mediocre major league defenders are incredible.
8:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s part of the reason fans tend to overrate their home team defensively
8:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Crappy defensive players still make some awesome plays from time to time
8:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Especially when you have no frame of reference.
8:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can’t really put overlay Brendan Ryan’s range above Jeter’s when Jeter made a play that was hard for him
8:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, while you’re watching
8:22
Jeremy: I didn’t know E Rod used to throw righty! Switching throwing hands has gotta be rare, even at a young age.
8:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he broke his arm or something. Lemme google it
8:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Billy Wagner is one who changed because of a broken arm
8:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://nesn.com/2019/08/eduardo-rodriguez-had-to-switch-throwing-arms…
8:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Here’s Kiké, who’s hotter than hell these days. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/no-stranger-to-october-heroics-kike-hernan…
8:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “The Boston Red Sox pitcher wasn’t always a left-handed pitcher. He was forced to change throwing arms after breaking his right arm and was in a cast for a year-and-a-half.”
8:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Geez, a year-and-a-half is a BROKEN arm.
8:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: broken-ass arm
8:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Billy Wags had his broken twice in a row as a kid, so kind of similar in that regard
8:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I switch-hit as a kid because I sucked about equally from both sides
8:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: that’s one approach. or two.
8:24
Jake Cave: Over/under 9 combined innings by the two starters tonight?
8:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: under
8:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m going to say over since Jay said under
8:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The average so far this postseason is 4.07 innings per start, as I wrote in today’s piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-incredible-shrinking-postseason-starte…
8:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

Over/Under: SP 9 IP Combined
Over (20.0% | 12 votes)
 
Under (58.3% | 35 votes)
 
Sideways (5.0% | 3 votes)
 
Topwise (1.6% | 1 vote)
 
Under 9 OUTS Boyo (3.3% | 2 votes)
 
My shoes hurt! (11.6% | 7 votes)
 
Total Votes: 60
8:26
sadman: Do we have any semblance of an iota of an idea how hot streaks like kiké’s happen?
8:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s made some mechanical changes — moving closer to the plate is the big one — and I don’t think opposing teams have taken them seriously or keyed upon him. You’d think they’d adjust their approaches.
8:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You need Kevin for the sensical polls.
8:26
Jeremy: Wait, what? How can a broken arm put you in a cast for 18 MONTHS? My god, that must’ve been awful.
8:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would’ve thought that by a year or so, your arm was going to do as much healing as was ever going to happen
8:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Probably had something to do with the growth plates
8:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like the time I slice my right foot with a piece of glass from my fourth toe to the side and down the heel. I got feeling slowly back for fourth toe and *most* of pinky toe for a year but then it kinda stopped after that
8:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, that was efficient
8:30
Hugh Duffy: There aren’t many switch hitters that don’t have a dominant side, so you’re in rare company Dan.
8:30
kyle: Fun fact: Before Kiké became a fan favorite in LA/BOS, he was one of the few bright spots on the 2014 Astros.
8:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: and yet they traded him to the Marlins on July 31. He played just 24 games for Houston, all of them in July!
8:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You have to be competent at two things to be obviously better at something than the other!
8:30
Jake Cave: Did you start pitching with your big toe?
8:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was like 37!
8:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Boy my sister was pissed I didn’t get stitches and just tied the whole foot tight with a sock tourniquet
8:31
Chuck H: Not to come right out of the chute as a negative nelly, but is anyone else as annoyed as I how they are trying to rename moonshots as “moon blasts” so Baseball can maximize their crypto revenue?
8:32
Avatar Jay Jaffe: yeah I’m never going to put those two words together. And I’m with P.F. Tompkins on this one.

When I find out who is doing the voice for the crypto moon man I will ruin his life
17 Oct 2021
8:31
Martin: I throw left handed but bat right handed because my childhood cricket coach refused to believe left handedness was a real thing
8:31
Jeremy: Here in Canada we just got a Blue Jays commercial, which feels like it would just make Jays fans sad by reminding them that they didn’t quite make the playoffs and the Red Sox did.
8:32
kyle: What happens in this game may change it, but do you have a feel for how Houston sets up the pitching tomorrow? Greinke has been pretty cooked second half, but he did deliver one of the guttiest performances of the post-season last year.
8:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Houston truly knows what they’re doing yet
8:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Beautiful inning for Rodriguez
8:34
Johnny J: With all these takes, seems like HOU wants us to have to use Pivetta.E Rod really attacking the strike zone to counter it , first time through.
8:34
How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: McDonald’s Mac Tonight is the only promotional Moon Man I recognize
8:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Moon Man
8:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

8:35
Chuck H: Have yourself an inning, Eduardo Rodriguez!
8:36
Chuck H: Man, where’s the “like” on this thing? Right on, Bobby Grinch!
8:36
Jake Cave: Kyle Tucker or Austin Riley for the next five seasons?
8:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tucker by a hair for me
8:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I like Tucker there too
8:37
kyle: Washington State just fired their head football coach because he refused to meet their vaccination deadline. Would this ever happen in MLB?
8:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I mean, it’s *possible* but MLB is more central
8:37
The Stranger: I feel shame and frustration just imagining throwing with my left arm.  Just another reminder that these guys may not be human.
8:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe: When I was dealing with my umpteenth bout of right shoulder problems in 2019 — this goes all the way back to the SLAP labrum tear I suffered in 2003 — I spent a few days believing that I was going to need rotator cuff surgery. I was traveling at the time, and spent a few days  at my parents’ place throwing snowballs left-handed, imagining that If I ever wanted to play catch with my daughter that was my future.

Thankfully it was just impingement. Cortisone, lidocaine, and a good physical therapist have kept me a righty.
8:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love Robothal, but he’s jumping to conclusions here
8:38
RTJ: Chances E-Rod re-signs with the Red Sox next year?
8:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think pretty good
8:39
Chuck H: I’m a righthander who actually tore his left SLAP labrum reaching up to catch a high throw at a big league team’s fantasy camp in 2007. The first of too many orthopedic surgeries all over my body …
8:40
Avatar Jay Jaffe: oh man, that sucks. Don’t ask me how I tore mine.
8:40
Jake Cave: Do you think more teams will start to take the approach the Giants took this year and sign a lot of players to one-year deals?
8:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not because of Giants
8:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the MLB CBA mess may lead to more than usual one-year deals
8:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think the thing teams will be emulating about the Giants is their larger coaching staff.
8:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I tore my wrist tripping on a cat in the dark, catching my left wrist in the stairs railing, and twisting as I fell
8:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: jesus, Dan.
8:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: This was in 2007
8:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: dammit Galileo!
8:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was under my feet because we had just had some Arby’s together and he assumed I was holding out on more
8:43
Chuck H: You got it, Jay. You don’t wanna tell me, then I don’t wanna know.
8:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: When I told Keith Law, then of the Blue Jays front office, he said, “For the love of God, make something up that’s better than that.”
8:43
Jeremy: Wow, JD smoked that one. How hard off the bat?
8:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’ll tell you in a sec!
8:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Beautiful piece of htiting
8:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Good hold there
8:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Carlos Febles, we have found him!
8:44
The Stranger: Have you ever heard a good explanation for broadcasts showing 7 games of postseason stats instead of 150 games of regular season stats?
8:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Never one I thought wasn’t dumb
8:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If the player’s had an itneresting postseason, you can still supplement it
8:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: “OK, this dude is 2 for 8 this postseason” is just trivia
8:45
Phil Nevin: Got to send him.  What is the worst that can happen?
8:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: RIP Wendell Kim
8:47
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i coached third in my daughter’s tee-ball game on Saturday. My shoulder made walnut-cracking sounds when I windmilled.
8:46
Lzfreak: Showing batting average is also questionable
8:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Against Kris Bryant that counts as a strike
8:47
Jeremy: I take back what I said 5 minutes ago about Urquidy looking sharp.
8:47
Chuck H: Wavin’ Wendell died? Awwww, man …
8:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A whiel back.
8:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was quite sad. He had that really early Alzheimer’s that you can get in your 50s or early 60s
8:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://www.mercurynews.com/2015/02/15/sports-digest-ex-giants-coach-w…
8:48
Jake Cave: Wait Kike Hernandez didn’t hit .500 this season??? Has been great but broadcast has forgotten he had a .786 OPS in the regular season
8:48
Wire Fan: Did Zips buy into Vasquez’ breakout in 2019?
8:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Christian?
8:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m assuming?
8:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since he’s up?
8:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: God, I’m kinda stupid that I’m asking
8:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since he’s LITERALLY UP
8:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sorry. Jay’s the one here to be smart.
8:50
Jeremy: If Jay’s here to be smart, what are you here for Dan?
8:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: comic relief
8:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And for some reason, people are amused by my presence in chats.
8:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Looking up Vazquez
8:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
8:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 2.3 WAR, but 88 OPS+ projection for 2020
8:52
Jake Cave: Astros are going to have a difficult time finding 27 outs over the next couple of days in Fenway
8:52
Jeremy: Ok, now what’s the over/under on the starters combining to pitch 9 innings?
8:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Jay won
8:53
kyle: Someone on twitter said that before the playoffs, Altuve re-rolls and min-maxes offense/defense and I think it may be true
8:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Interesting question here: How big does the lead have to be for the Red Sox that, considering Houston’s rotation, you tell Urquidy “dude, you’re throwing 90 pitches even if it’s 15 runs!”
8:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel like I helped cause that
8:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s 6-0. Can you *really* pull Urquidy before 50 pitches given the low stakes this game has suddenly gotten?
8:55
Jake Cave: Has to go at least four inning IMO
8:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think so too
8:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That the casters are agreeing with me worries me, but I stand by that
8:56
Hugh Duffy: Sadly for the Astros, it’s Urquidy’s turn in the barrel.
8:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Also, the grand slam totally kills the rally!!!1111
8:56
Wire Fan: He has got to wear it for the team.  Especially with Garcia’s unknown status.
8:56
The Stranger: Not sure 90 pitches gets him to four innings.  Might not get him to two the way this is going.
8:57
Rich: Kike needs no rally, Dan
8:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have to call him Hernandez as I’m on my little 65% clicky keyboard and I’m not sure how to make the accents without the number pad!
8:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ALT 0233 WHERE ARE YOU
8:58
Ben Schneider: I know Jay voted for Wagner to make the HOF.  Dan, would you say he deserves a spot?
8:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would have voted for him
8:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve got a few more years to go
8:58
Jeremy: I feel like you don’t really see “home runs kill rallies” takes any more?
8:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A-Rod aside, analysis has generally gotten better over time
8:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Smoltz wouldn’t have even been crappy/grumpy in 1995 or so
8:59
Dan: If you do take out Urquidy soon, your next reliever has to go 3-4, right?
8:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s the problem. How many resources do you expend on a 6-0 lead?
8:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I say very few UNLESS the Astros roar back and get like four or five or more next half inning
8:59
Jeremy: Am I crazy, or do I recall ARod being widely praised when he first started announcing?
8:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was good when he was in the studio and it was just at the end of the year
9:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But doing it often, he’s overexposed
9:00
Guess: Anyone else listening to the ESPN Radio broadcast, rather than Buck/Smoltz?
9:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I rarely do that because I can never get the syn cright
9:01
Martin: Gotta platoon A-Rod with another analyst
9:01
Matt: The  Astros must realize Zach Grineke is ON THE ROSTER, right?
9:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he gets a start
9:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They practically HAVE to
9:02
RTJ: How many MLB manager/FO people during the regular season would like to have a “mercy” 10-run rule in play after some threshold inning – if you asked them to be really honest?
9:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’ll never admit it
9:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: whoa, I go to tuck my daughter in and the Red Sox scored a touchdown but missed the extra point?
9:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Against Urquidy, they went for two
9:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i was about to offer a fun fact that only one Red Sox postseason game thus far featured no score through two innings. Guess I can stick that one back in my pocket
9:03
Wire Fan: Girardi has publicly commented on his belief that MLB should explore a mercy rule
9:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Girardi needs a mercy rule for his Philadelphia tenure.
9:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used to loudly complain about it in little league
9:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was way too competitive as a kid
9:04
Phil: The Red Sox do need a better placekicker.
9:04
James: Assuming no rally, Jake Meyers has to pitch a couple innings right?
9:04
Dropkick Izzys: Cristian Javier last topped 60 pitches in an outing in May
9:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He had a 59 I think last week in the playoffs?
9:04
mybloodyballantine: Imagine paying to go to a baseball game and it ends after 1 inning because of the mercy rule.
9:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d throw a beer out the press box window in disgust if that happened!
9:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I’d never bring a beer into the press box)
9:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll usually slam down a couple of beers and/or dogs with random fans between innings
9:05
Johnny J: I mean, why not just let teams strategically forfeit then?
9:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tehcnically, they could do that now
9:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t think the players want that at all
9:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah
9:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You’re WAY into the unwritten rules there
9:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think I’d even be able to violate that one, even if a good idea
9:06
Don: I like Modest Mouse
9:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That hit from Schwarber is still floating on
9:07
Phil: Ballplayers have to be irrational–otherwise they’d be scared of the ball like a normal human being. So of course they think they can come back from any deficit.
9:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We ALL do thing that are less than logically superior
9:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You should see me and my personal food safety
9:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: if there’s such a thing as a great place to come back from a 6-run deficit, it’s Fenway Park
9:08
Guess: How many 6-run leads have been blown in post-season history?
9:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That I’m not sure about honestly
9:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a db directly on point for that
9:08
The Stranger: FO people should be all for it.  Fewer innings = lower counting stats = lower arb salaries.
9:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: which is why the union won’t allow it
9:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If a team starts forfeiting games when they’re down by seven, the front office is killed and stuffed by the next day
9:09
Guess: Re: arb salaries: will the current arb system survive the CBA negotiations?
9:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mostly
9:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There will EVENTUALLY be a deal and it’ll likely be incremental in nature
9:10
The Stranger: Dan, we need to know about your personal food safety.  Illogical because your kitchen is obsessively clean, or illogical because you laugh at salmonella?
9:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t ask how long I will eat things left out or how long they’re fine in the fridge
9:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Anything I make with raw beef has me eating a lot of raw beef
9:11
Matt: Driving is the biggest threat to your life if you are under like 70, but
9:11
sadtrombone: Goodness I take a little too long to put the kids to bed and the Red Sox are up by 6.
9:11
Antonio Bananas: Any chance there is a single game in the ALCS that has more total runs than the entire NLCS?
9:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: SOME chance, but it’s a long one
9:12
Jeremy: Thank goodness Vazquez backed that up.
9:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Kiké putting his whole body into those throws is entertaining
9:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: lol siri
9:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he even saw vazquez
9:12
The Stranger: Sounds legit.  Remember, your genes come from the people who *survived* the plague, smallpox, and dysentery.  You’ll be fine.
9:12
Jeremy: I can’t believe Smoltz just said “Siri just gave his teammate some horrible information”. I feel like Jose Siri should be allowed to use his bat to pummel anyone who makes a “Siri” joke about him.
9:13
kyle: very rude to call anything outside the zone a strike when Maldy is up. Be sporting, blue!
9:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh, neural network generated nicknames for these two rosters
9:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

9:15
RTJ: If it gets really into a blow out territory could we see Verdugo (or another position player) throw an inning or two ?
9:15
Avatar Jay Jaffe: you will never see a team with a big lead throw a position player in to pitch in the postseason unless it’s well in to extra innings. that’s right up there with stealing bases when you’re up 17-0 or something.
9:15
OneTrueWonka: ERod’s velo down this inning?
9:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, he was mostly 91/92, but not surprising to see him take a little off
9:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Eovaldi frequently gets away from splitters when his team has a cushion
9:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

9:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: down a little there but in context, not surprising
9:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since I’m not scheduled for any more NLCS chats.
9:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

9:17
James: So where in the world does Dusty find 15 innings from the bullpen for the next 2 days?
9:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it’s in the toothpicks
9:18
ralph: Dan, how long are things fine in the fridge?
9:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: till I see mold, they smell funny, or they taste weird
9:19
Phil: Does Tony Gonsolin have any actual connection to Ann Arbor? I don’t remember ever seeing him on the Diag.
9:19
Phil: Are there any stats on the “long wait” theory (about pitching) that announcers seem to be attached to?
9:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I haven’t seen any
9:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: doubt it. AI is imperfect or it wouldn’t be as amusing and thus less worthwhile
9:19
Dan: We also have a hockey game with a very similar score. Flyers are up on the Kraken 6-1
9:19
sadtrombone: @James, this bullpen usage in the playoffs has been bonkers. The Astros need someone to soak innings tonight or they’re screwed tomorrow.
9:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would have left Urquidy in
9:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can’t have five pitchers covering a 6-0 lead
9:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: err deficit
9:20
The Stranger: Wait… is that not what everybody does?  Serious question.
9:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Lots of people actually will throw things out much quicker!
9:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My mom won’t eat any leftovers after a couple days, which always drove us nuts growing up
9:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: One week rule here, but i’ve been known to waive it because we keep our fridge REALLY cold, almost freezing
9:20
Steve Nebraska: Lol @ Phil bickford, I mean white chocolate
9:21
Phil: A whole lot of people have trouble with the idea that “use by” dates are fictitious.
9:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used mustard that was seven years past best by date before I noticed
9:21
sadtrombone: They already used Odorizzi, I assume Framber isn’t available, so that leaves…Greinke for long relief?
9:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think they have to start Greinke at this point
9:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t see how they survive without a Javier or Greinke start
9:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: a couple years ago I cleaned out fridge items that were left from my first marriage, which ended in 2010.
9:22
The Stranger: Fun fact – cheese is perfectly edible after a week outside in the summer (learned that backpacking)
9:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: but I hadn’t been using them.
9:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: good Lord, Astros playing Little League defense here
9:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t refrigerate a stick of butter I’m using
9:23
Jeremy: Mustard keeps approximately forever.
9:23
sadtrombone: Bah, you don’t even need to refrigerate mustard. It has anti-bacterial properties.
9:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I kept using it
9:23
The Stranger: Room temperature butter is the best butter
9:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It spreads so nicely!
9:23
Brooklyn Heights: Maybe the way to tolerate Smoltz’s griping about today’s pitching is to see him as a romantic. He’s attached to the notion of the starter as knight errant, or as Western town marshal.
9:23
Jeremy: My mother in law doesn’t refrigerate sticks of butter. I tried it and it went rancid in a few days.
9:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No way, it lasts awhile
9:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I keep my house on the cold side
9:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You stop using it when it tastes like gorgonzola
9:24
mybloodyballantine: i keep a stick of butter out all the time and I never had one go bad
9:24
kyle: they make butter dishes for a reason.
9:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Oh god, my mom bought a butter bell and did NOT UNDERSTAND IT
9:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: She was just storing her butter underneath the butter bell like a cloche
9:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I almost lost my shit, i was MOM, HOW DO YOU THINK THIS WORKS?
9:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oof
9:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: LOL i never did learn how to use the butter bell, but I’m fine with keeping mine in the fridge.
9:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: JFC, I think that one was a homer before Arroyo was even done his swing
9:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: She literally thought there was a substance in the bell that kept the butter fresh, which makes no sense.
9:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And she’s not 90 or something. At the time she was like 64 and a college graduate!
9:27
OneTrueWonka: 109 mph
9:27
Jeremy: Looking forward to even more obscure culinary convos now that it’s 9-0 in the third.
9:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A TD and FG still gets the lead
9:28
sadtrombone: I don’t really think the Astros are out of this, though. I think they’ve scored 5 runs in every single playoff game so far, six in I think more than half? They can put up runs in a hurry. Obviously they’d rather not be down 6 and the win expectancy doesn’t lie but I don’t think this is quite over yet.
9:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: a comeback from 6-0 was plausible, 9-0 less so.
9:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: unlike Astros, I’m still in this!
9:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

9:29
The Stranger: Here’s one for Jeremy – next time you go to McDonald’s for breakfast, see if you can get them to make you a breakfast sandwich with hash browns instead of bread.  I call it the McHangover.
9:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://mcdonalds.fandom.com/wiki/Mc10:35
9:29
Jeremy: Is there a mercy rule for chats? Like, if one team is up by 10 after 7, and the chat is discussing antique Ugandan kitchen utensils, is the chat over?
9:30
Dan: I’m strictly here for the food takes now. We need a good recipe to try
9:30
ralph: Dan, what is your preferred form of raw beef?
9:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love steak tartare. Been eating it since I was a little kid
9:30
mybloodyballantine: one of my favorite snacks is frozen tater tots. always sneak a handful while baking the rest in the oven.
9:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: too high for devers!
9:31
Bill: If you were Dusty, how would you manage the pen for the rest of this game? Try and find a hero to eat innings a la Tim Wakefield in game 3 2004? Burn through a few arms but limit the overall number of pitches for each?
9:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: See if Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh want to pick up some work on the side. Ask around for Scott Kazmir’s number, too?
9:32
Jeremy: Whoops here’s the recipe: https://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/carrot-cilantro-and-chil…
9:32
Jeremy: This stuff is great. I eat it all the time with corn chips, and I’m not even vegetarian. I skip the Thai chiles and just sprinkle in ground cayenne pepper until it’s as spicy as I want it:
9:33
Guest: When’s the last time a position player pitched in the playoffs? Ever?
9:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://www.mlb.com/news/position-players-pitching-in-postseason
9:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I was at the Austin Romine game
9:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe: which was also the Brock Holt cycle game
9:34
Avatar Jay Jaffe: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/boone-fiddles-while-the-bronx-burns/
9:33
Ben Schneider: I’m sure a reliever can fly up from Sugar Land in time before the game ends
9:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We just finished 3 innings. Perhaps drive up
9:34
Doug: Schwarber contract prediction? I’m thinking 3/39 or 4/50 ish?
9:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: HEY I GOT A PROJECTION THINGAMABOB
9:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

9:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS says 3/55 or 4/68
9:35
Rain: I know people talked about Schwarber as an underrated signing at the trade deadline in various places but I sure wasn’t expecting this
9:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Schwarber was #3 on my hitter breakout list!
9:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/szymborskis-2021-breakout-candidates-hitte…
9:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Vlad, Kirilloff, Schwarber, Sanchez, Crawford, Lowe, McMahon, Urias
9:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe: nice list there
9:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The pitchers list did better
9:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Montgomery, Musgrove, Eflin, Means, Tepera, Urias, Cease, Springs
9:38
Don: Be pretty smart for Cora to ride E Rod as far as possible until or if he gives up 4-5 runs or so, don’t you think? Run up his pitch count. Maybe even more runs if the Sox tack on more
9:39
Don: Maybe he’s not stretched out enough now that I think of it
9:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Within reason. The fewer relievers you have to burn that won’t be available tomorrow the better.
That’s yet another reason a mercy rule is dumb is that in a multigame series, what happens here in this protracted garbage time has an impact on pitcher availability going forward. The Astros can force the Red Sox to burn somebody important if they work at it enough.
9:40
Guest: It’s a long way from Sugar Land to get any relief up here to stop the Astros bleeding.
9:40
Avatar Jay Jaffe: We’re not in Houston anymore, Toto.
9:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We’re only in the 3rd, they can drive up by the end of the game!
9:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: err 4tth
9:41
kyle: Dan, rate my grandmother’s chili recipe:

  • 3 lbs chuck or rump roast, cubed;
  • 4 cloves garlic;
  • 2 tsp salt;
  • 1 tsp pepper,
  • 4-6 tbs chili powder;
  • 8 tbs Maseca;
  • 6 cups chicken broth;
  • 2 tbs vinegar;
  • dried chiles to taste

Cook until meat is dissolved.
9:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s a really good one
9:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now, I’d use more chili peppers
9:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dried chilis are super cheap for massive amounts and there’s such a variety of tastes
9:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://www.saveur.com/mexican-dried-chile-guide/
9:43
kyle: I’d show you the adorable handwritten card that it’s on, but I can’t post photos.
9:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But there’s no beans and it’s basically meat + spice + chili pepper
9:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: even if it’s chili powder
9:44
Divcoman: Jo Buck: “It’s at the point now where you take the regular season numbers and throw them away.”
9:45
Avatar Jay Jaffe: when Joe Buck said that, my eyes rolled back in my head so far that I could see my own brainstem.
9:44
Jeremy: You can’t upload photos? I have an “upload image” button…
9:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: 9-3 thanks to a 3-run homer by Kyle Tucker. WE HAVE A BALLGAME, FOLKS!
9:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://postimages.org/
9:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: they still need the TD
9:45
kyle: I tend to sub peppers for powder when I make it. Lots of options at the tiendita.
9:45
spicy enjoyer: Thoughts on canned chipotles in adobo for chili?
9:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love those little cans
9:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They’re so useful. I always have some on hand
9:45
Grant: Something refreshing about a high-scoring playoff series, not gonna lie
9:45
Avatar Jay Jaffe: chipotles in adobo are awesome. now there’s something I keep in the fridge for-freakin’ ever
9:45
RTJ: i feel like the people who would be most in favor of a mercy rule would be play by play announcers
9:46
Guest: Assume money is equal: keep Schwarber or JDM at this point?
9:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: for me, Schwarber because he’s 6 years younger
9:46
kyle: https://postimg.cc/sQvhMRgX
9:46
The Stranger: Honestly, I kind of love when the game’s out of hand and the announcers can get going on tangents.  It’s like the broadcast version of Dan’s chili and sandwich chat.
9:47
kyle: Beat writers more than play by play, I bet. At least the broadcasters get to be on TV.
9:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know beat guys hate extra innings and stuff
9:47
J Smoltz: Chili without beans is a waste and has  no depth.. like current starting pitchers today
9:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s OK to prefer beef and bean stew
9:47
Wire Fan: If Altuve can turn a DP, it might be 4-3 right now. (fallacy of the predetermined outcome be damned)
9:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was forgivable last time, but Smoltz is going to tell a Siri joke every time he sees Siri
9:48
Phil: Beat writers have to stick around for the press conference and then write their stories. They’ve got two hours left when the announcers go home.
9:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Fallacy of the Predetermined Outcome is the name of my next album
9:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I always feel guilty at the end of games. The writers are all loading up into the elevator to head down to the dugout
9:49
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Hey Siri, when will the Astros win this series?
9:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and typically, I don’t really *need* to be there, so I’m heading to my car!
9:49
spicy enjoyer: is vegetarian chili real chili? i make it a lot and it’s definitely good, but idk how much of a purist people are
9:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: it can be good, it’s just something else.
9:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: To kind of steer this to baseball-related food
9:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

9:51
Uncle Spike: I’m participating in a chili cook off at work. Any advice, Dan?
9:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends where you are!
9:51
mybloodyballantine: This is the 2021 ERod I remember. Not putting guys away and throwing 25+ pitches in an inning
9:51
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Callback to Dumbass Jay of 8:05 PM: “i’d like to believe that just once the Red Sox can play a game at Fenway that doesn’t last 4 hours.”
We’re nearly two hours in and not even done with the top of the 4th.
9:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You didn’t say you believed that, only that you’d like to believe it!
9:53
Avatar Jay Jaffe: you’re right
9:53
Jeremy: Here’s the real chaotic evil hot dog: https://www.epicurious.com/recipes/food/views/grilled-carrot-hot-dogs-…
9:53
Guess: What is your favorite fantasy team name?  I personally like “Veteran Presence,” given my penchant for drafting players who have big name value but are past their prime.
9:53
Avatar Jay Jaffe: back when I still played — now more than 10 years ago — my favorite was El Maximo Jaffe.
9:53
Uncle Spike: It’a a good ‘ole North Carolina chili cook-off.
9:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oooo, I’d try to push it towards the flavor profile of the BBQ part of the state you’re in
9:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t use tomatoes unless you’re in a lexington-style area
9:54
kyle: Is Tucker doomed to a career of Trout-like non-recognition because he looks and acts like a default character in MLB The Show?
9:54
Guess: What computer games have you been playing recently, Dan?  (Or Jay,  if Jay plays any.)
9:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Been playing New World
9:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And Hearthstone
9:55
Uncle Spike: We’re in the border between vinegar based verse tomato based BBQ. Personally not a fan of the vinegar based so now I’m at a loss.
9:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends on what you think the testers will prefer then!
9:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The goal of a cookoff is to WIN not make the most legit chili
9:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I participated in a cincy-area cookoff, I’d do the whole cincy stuff
9:56
Jeremy: Source:

9:58
Guess: Fun fact: no one else in MLB history has had the name “Xander” or “Bogaerts.”
9:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I would have guessed another Xander
9:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No Zanders either
9:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: though Zander Wiel will probably get at least a PA
9:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I was very close to being named Alexander
9:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And you KNOW I’d go as Zander Szymborski
9:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d probably even drop the S in the last name
10:00
mybloodyballantine: Szander
10:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Alexander was on my short list for names if we had a boy instead of a girl. Not sure I can see Xander or Zander though
10:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Szander Szymborski!
10:00
Phil: Odds that Arroyo is the starting second baseman next year?
10:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fairly low I think
10:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll have a big role and be versatile
10:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but I think Boston’s going to be fairly active in FA
10:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: wouldn’t surprise me if he gets first crack. they need pitching more.
10:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They better get moving because I’m not chatting until 2 AM and I’m sure Jay isn’t either!
10:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: nope, if this isn’t a close game at 11 PM, i’m out
10:03
Guest: worst playoff series ever so far enjoyment wise? hated teams playing 5 hour blow outs
10:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Game 1 was fine
10:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m glad I don’t have to write up this one, the second half of Game 2 was a chore
10:03
Hugh Duffy: Aww, but who will we chat with as the game crawls to its inevitable end?
10:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: God
10:03
kyle: the first game was great
10:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: the kitchen utensil drawer organizers I researched and ordered during Game 1 arrived today, i’ve got a big night ahead of me.
10:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: which was less a commentary on my general interest in t his series and more on my need for some down time after last week.
10:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: (

I don’t want to say that my feelings about these two teams led me to prioritize organizing my sock drawer. My kitchen drawer, on the other hand… I spent an hour and $60 configuring a modular system for my utensils.

Big Friday night here, folks. Party just gettin’ started.

16 Oct 2021

for those interested)
10:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think for me, the worst ones are the ones I have no recollection of
10:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like Dodgers-Diamondbacks 2017 NLDS Dodger sweep. I’m looking at it and I have ZERO recall over anything
10:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: this series, I’ll at least remember Grand Slam City
10:06
Jeremy: This game is at risk of falling in Uncanny Blowout Valley right now. If it stays 9-0, that’s not much fun. If the Red Sox keep scoring and it ends up, like 20-0, that’s…well, not fun exactly, but more fun than staying 9-0.
10:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ot
10:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: s 0=3!
10:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s 9-3!
10:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sorry, my clicky keyboard needs charging so I switched to my main one
10:06
egm: I feel like Verdugo’s necklace maybe costs more than my car…
10:06
B’Ryce Hammer: The diamondbacks made the playoffs in 2017?
10:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They won 93 games!
10:07
Jeremy: In my own defense, 9-3 is also in Uncanny Blowout Valley.
10:07
The Stranger: I’m a Red Sox fan and I probably won’t watch more than half of this game because of the start time and the length. MLB has a problem with how it presents its product in the playoffs.
10:07
Guest: Archie Bradley playoff triple baby
10:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: beat the Rox in the Wild Card for the right to lose to the Dodgers.
10:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hey, something I could do.
10:07
Ben Schneider: It wasn’t that long ago the DBacks AND Rockies were good at the same time
10:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Feels like they both slammed the window of contention on their thumbs… intentionally.
10:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Rank playoff series by the absolute value of the changes in WPA during the games!
10:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: you gonna do that for us?
10:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I can quickly! lol
10:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did it last year for individual games
10:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I thinK WS Game 4 was the swingiest playoff game ever
10:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: or something
10:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I might be misremembering
10:10
Jeremy: Also in my own defense, I’m watching this chat more closely than the game.
10:10
kyle: The Astros/Cleveland ALDS series may have never happened.
10:10
Jeremy: I’m a Red Sox fan in the mountain time zone, and I’m not going to watch this game until the end either unless something big changes.
10:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dangit, I don’t know where I stashed individual play log
10:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, I found some of the accumulated data
10:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: These are the swingiest games in MLB postseason history
10:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:13
Avatar Jay Jaffe: ooh
10:13
Avatar Jay Jaffe: 2011 WS Game 6 was insane
10:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And there are some GREAT games in there
10:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: wow, why so few from pre-WW2?
10:19
Wire Fan: What did you think of the Dodgers pitching decisions in game 2 (starting Scherzer instead of Buehler in normal rest, using Urias out of the bullpen when they could have gone Graterol, Treinen, Jansen, and not using Jansen to start the 9th inning)
10:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Puzzling. I love Urías’ flexibility but why are you carrying Bruihl if not to go through the top of the order there, or line up one of your righties that has had success vs. lefties this year — which is basically all except Graterol.
10:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The Scherzer decision… obviously there was a lot we didn’t know about how he was feeling. If you knew he could only give you a few innings, starting him in G1 at least means you don’t have to roll out Knebel/Gonsolin twice in the first 5 games
10:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Graterol instead of Jansen, i kind of get in retrospect because Graterol’s velo and ability to stop the running game has some value if you know the Braves are going to try to smallball it (runners go at will vs. Jansen). But just overall a terrible night for Roberts.
10:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m still here, just working on this
10:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For some reason, my team numbers are FG from 2003-2020 and something I made up before that
10:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (it’s hard to remember my reasoning on a spreadsheet form a year ago)
10:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I knew something was wrong and Royals/Pirates in the 2019 postseason was the worst game
10:22
Jeremy: Fewer evenly matched teams pre-WW II? Yankees just outclassed everyone else too often?
10:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are just so many more games recently so they swamp the old ones!
10:22
Jeremy: 1980 was one of the great years for playoff games. And they involved lots of fun memorable players. Very underrated postseason year, I feel like.
10:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Given the way that the 1977 division winners repeated in 1978 and then disappeared in 1979, 1980 was a strange callback
10:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: but those were fun games. Watching George Brett go off on the Yankees was entertaining as hell
10:26
Phil: I am multitasking and just came uncomfortably close to pasting part of an employee review into the chat window.
10:26
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Would have been really awkward if you left it up for one of us to fire him.
10:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here were the least swingy games
10:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:30
Avatar Jay Jaffe: need series game numbers for that one to really understand it
10:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah
10:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think doing it for series works as well
10:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Games it does seem to have a lot of correlation
10:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But for an entire series, it doesn’t work
10:34
kyle: Yordan up reminds me that Brantley doesn’t need to be batting second against lefties. Wonder if that changes after this game?
10:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Doubtful — I’m not sure Dusty looks at Brantley hitting second in that context and says, “This is our big problem.” Which isn’t to say that he shouldn’t deal with it, but with starters not working deep into games it might matter less than in the past.
10:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I guarantee this is nobody’s list of best playoff series
10:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:35
Guest: I think the 2005 WS was the single most boring World Series of my lifetime.
10:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe try best three games?
10:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe: 2005 had some good games for a sweep. The 2014 AL Wild Card was wild af
10:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: but yeah, that list… doesn’t work
10:38
Uncle Spike: Expectations for Greinke if he starts game 4? Starting someone that has only thrown 49 pitches over the last month seems awfully dangerous.
10:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think the context of this postseason tells us he’s going through the order twice and not much more. I wouldn’t have high hopes
10:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s not going to pitch 8 shutout innings and turn it over to the closer
10:39
TC: The list is mostly just ‘Team [x] finds many ways to lose inventively in as few games as possible’ (note two Twins-Yankees series)
10:40
APODionysus: Jay is that through the order twice in one or two innings?
10:41
Guest: I could see Dusty giving Greinke a *very* long leash, given Dusty still seems like a more traditional manager and the Astros’ bullpen will be depleted after tonight.
10:42
Avatar Jay Jaffe: If Greinke were fully healthy, sure. But he wouldn’t be a huge question mark if he were healthy.
10:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ranking by three swingiest games is a bit better
10:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There are some up there that don’t excite me, but there are a *lot* of great series at the top of it
10:42
Avatar Jay Jaffe: wait isn’t that just the same list as before
10:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oops, wrong link
10:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: that starts to look pretty good except I have no memory of that Rockies-Phillies series
10:43
Zack: Why divide by # of plays? Can we see it sorted by total WPA change
10:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can do that too
10:45
Zack: Also might be worth weighing later games in the series to try to get change in % winning the series instead of % winning the game. Sounds difficult though
10:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s something I could figure out with more time
10:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I’m kinda doing this on the fly!
10:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Series ranked by probability change in top 3 games
10:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: that’s got some bangers
10:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: 1995 Mariners-Yankees was bonkers
10:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here’s the least probability change in top 3 games
10:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i think  you have to ditch the 1-game WCs in both lists
10:48
Avatar Jay Jaffe: separate category
10:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I don’t have a neat way of doing it without starting over with the data
10:49
johnk: I’m intrigued by that sox/giants 1912 series
10:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, I know how I can filter it
10:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the 1912 WS had a great reputation
10:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s also the only best-of-eight WS
10:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One of the games was called for darkness
10:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: called in the 11th with a 6-6 tie!
10:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can you imagine the hoopla that would ensue
10:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: if you called WS Game 2 a tie in the 11th?
10:53
Uncle Spike: It may have been the only beat of 8 but there were several beat of 9’s.
10:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yup
10:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: After Black Sox
10:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: but that 1912 is just something that wouldn’t happen today
10:53
egm: I had a 164 game season on MLB the Show road to the show. I didn’t even know that was possible
10:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In certian tiebreakers!
10:54
Avatar Jay Jaffe: 1912 was the Snodgrass Muff World Series
10:55
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Fred Snodgrass, Giants CF, dropped a 10th inning fly ball that became the tying run and the Red Sox added another to win
10:56
Avatar Jay Jaffe: With Rodriguez’s 6 innings and Urquidy’s 1.2 innings, the average start in this postseason is now down to 4.06 innings
10:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, that last one with one-game WCs filtered out
10:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

10:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Didn’t need to do it for tops since no one game WCs made that since it’s a quantity
10:57
Guest: Are you in favor of re-seeding the playoffs so a team like the Dodgers gets home-field advantage against a team like the Braves?
10:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes
10:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And the first round should be by record
10:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There is NFW that the Giants should have had to face Dodgers in NLDS
10:58
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I like the do-or-die penalty a WC team faces for not winning the division. I could get on board with re-seeding after that one though. Dodgers-Giants should have been 7 games.
10:58
Ben Schneider: My dad and I watched Ken Burns’ Baseball last year and we couldn’t believe how wild some of the early WS were, including 1912
10:58
Guest: Can’t Greinke just throw eight innings of eephus pitches tomorrow? Don’t need to be fully healthy for those!
10:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: OK, I’m here for good now, done messing around with Excel and swingy games
10:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Normally you get this stuff when it’s all polished and clean in an article!
10:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dalbec sounds like a style of beer
10:59
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I, on the other hand, am going to ice my shoulder so to speak
10:59
Jeremy: Feel like you don’t see bats explode like that very often any more. I guess because the bat manufacturers put hard glazes on the bats now?
10:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nobody corks ’em anymore!
11:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good night, folks! Thanks for stopping by. Dan will carry on as only he can for awhile longer.
11:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Apologies in advance for me being me.
11:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unless this goes forever, I’ll hang for the last dregs.
11:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The benefits of being a childless loner!
11:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t know if this game it counts as a benefit! lol
11:01
Phil: Several of the Boston announcers call Dalbec Daubach. Can they just not pronounce it or do they actually think he’s Brian Daubach?
11:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s be honest: it’s really the same dude!
11:01
Randy: Who’s the most average big league position player? Pitcher?
11:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not digging into any more excel stuff solo!
11:02
Scotty: Dan, is Yelich’s career turning into a zips time warp article in the making??
11:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that…yet
11:02
Nat: if you could save runs for later, how big of a lead would you need for you to say “this is enough”
11:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends on the inning!
11:02
Nat: Should the Sox be saving some of these runs for later in the series?
11:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They might be using up all the grand slams!
11:03
Mateo: what is something you are still hoping to see in this game?
11:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The end of the ninth! 😀
11:04
egm: Did you know that someone once threatened to shoot Mickey Mantle’s kneecaps out? https://permanent.fdlp.gov/lps1288/mantle.pdf
11:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I did not
11:05
Jeremy: I feel like Mantle’s knees were in pretty bad shape by the end even without being shot.
11:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: This was for the Korean war
11:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He had an existing ankle issue
11:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and the second time he was examine, a knee issue
11:06
Randy: Bengie Molina style
11:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: POP TARTS
11:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sorry, old Baseball THink Factory playoff chat joke
11:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The running joke was that any time a Molina brother was running, Pop Tarts were assumed to be involved.
11:07
Rafi: Martin Perez always causes me to recall Melido Perez
11:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I always say Aaron Sanchez ‘ay-RONE’ because of the chef
11:07
Nat: Dalbec kept starting all summer, long after many had given up him. then got super hot in August and September. But now mostly is on the bench in the playoffs. Any insight?
11:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s hard given the roster
11:10
Harmon Ripkowski: Hi Dan. Curious if you ever thought about applying ZIPS to players like Newcombe, Minoso…
11:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m just not as comfortable with the translations
11:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s definitely something to consider in the future
11:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Anyhoo, I lost my thought
11:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: JDM’s ankle probably crushed Dalbec’s PT
11:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: because the Sox really prefer Schwarber at first than in the outfield
11:12
Randy: I’d like to see a triple into the triangle. Just for fun
11:13
johnk: Dan, do you have a favorite person in the stands at all of these games? One of my favorites at fenway is the guy third row above the astros logo, white hair, sunglasses
11:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t really fan watch
11:13
Underwater Johnson: Altuve loafing down the line there
11:13
Phil: Martinez can’t play outfield with his ankle, which means Schwarber has to play first.
11:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Phil said it before I did, for the record
11:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (Sorry Phil, I hadn’t scrolled all the way yet)
11:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I had to break up a cat fight
11:14
ralph: What are some of your favorite BBTF memories?
11:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The running gag that Chris Truby was a satanist which eventually got back to him apparently
11:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: THEy”RE USING UP ALL THE HOMERS
11:15
Nat: is schwarber so bad in the outfield that a position he’s played like 10 times is better?
11:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fenway is not a fun place for an inexperienced OF
11:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It was purely by accident
11:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Someone was trolling about players loafing and used Albert Belle as an example
11:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And Tom Nawrocki, a rolling stone editor at the time
11:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Said something to the effect of “Everyone’s always finding excuses to include Albert Belle negatively. If Chris Truby was discovered doing satanic dismemberment, people would whine about how they’re tired about how modern players like Chris Truby and Albert Belle are satanists.”
11:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So naturally, that resulted in a decade of Chris Truby Satan jokes.
11:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Also, the Trade Deadline Extravaganza I ran in 2009
11:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I organized a 13-man, eight-hour chat for the trade deadline.
11:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/newsstand/discussion/btfs_2009_tr…
11:19
Phil: Schwarber is a born DH. Surely he’d have had a more impressive career to this point if he’d come up in the AL? More PAs and therefore more HRs.
11:19
Jeremy: That was the longest underhand flip I’ve ever seen.
11:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, the transcript no longer works as the CoveritLive service no longer functions
11:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That was a couple of months before I started writing for ESPN
11:20
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I never thought to go back and transfer that transcript to text
11:20
egm: Aww Jeff Sullivan. I loved his work. He and Dave Cameron really got me into Fangraphs, and baseball in general again, when I was in my late 20s.
11:20
B’Ryce Hammer: So, I was sitting here, as a Yankees fan, pondering who I hate more between HOU and BOS. I was just thinking I kinda like Boston better, when Fenway starts chanting “Yankees Suck” 😂
11:20
Martin: It’s always a little sad finding an abandoned website, seeing all the old posts tailing off
11:21
Phil: Do you know how Swydan is doing, Dan? Did his bookstore survive the pandemic?
11:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t talked with him, but I believe it’s still open!
11:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t live anywhere near there, but I know he was active in organizing all sorts of events and stuff to keep people going
11:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: https://silverunicornbooks.com/
11:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For those who haven’t seen ti
11:23
mybloodyballantine: oh hey, this game might not crack the 3.5 hour mark
11:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised
11:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the second half BLEW BY
11:23
B’Ryce Hammer: who the heck is this pitcher?
11:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s Sawamura!
11:24
B’Ryce Hammer: But why haven’t I even heard his name?
11:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s a real deep cut
11:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: he wasn’t on the alds roster
11:26
B’Ryce Hammer: well, he’s doing his job! It’s time for me to go to bed
11:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sawamura’s splitter is a lot of fun
11:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But it’s a little erratic
11:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So the Red Sox didn’t really use him in a lot of high-leverage situations
11:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: since he’s walk prone
11:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Which happened to him at times in japan too
11:27
ralph: Sawamura was arguably the big mistake of G1
11:27
Rod: See ya, ZZ
11:27
Phil: Thanks for staying up with us, Dan! Jay’s a snoozer-loser.
11:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Jay’s got a young daughter!
11:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He need his rest.
11:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Me, what am I going to do tomorrow? Get tacos?
11:28
Hugh Duffy: As do we all. Thanks for the chat Dan!
11:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, we ALL do?
11:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Shoot, someone email me where my kid is because I was unaware!
11:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, thanks for coming out everyone!
11:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: We appreciate all the support you’ve shown FanGraphs in the last 18 months.
11:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And t hanks for toughing out a game that was…not the most high intensity one





 

Meg is the managing editor of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on twitter @megrowler.

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