Boone Fiddles While the Bronx Burns
NEW YORK — In stark contrast to the proficiency with which he handled staff ace Luis Severino in the Yankees’ AL Wild Card win, pulling the right-hander after four electrifying (if wild) innings, manager Aaron Boone appeared to be caught flat-footed last night in Game Three of the AL Division Series against the Red Sox.
Well equipped to handle Severino’s heat, the Boston lineup — featuring four players who didn’t start Game Two — hit scorcher after scorcher off the 24-year-old righty through the first three innings, building up a 3-0 lead in the process. By the time Boone came out of the dugout, three batters into the fourth inning, he was too late. The pitcher to whom he turned offered little relief, too. The resulting seven-run outburst broke the game open, paving the way for the Red Sox to humiliate the Yankees 16-1, the most lopsided postseason loss in the franchise’s history and one that pushed them to the brink of elimination in the best-of-five series.
The small fraction of the 49,657 attendees who stuck around to the bitter end witnessed not only that bit of history but another, as well, as Red Sox second baseman Brock Holt became the first player ever to hit for the cycle in a postseason game. The coup de grâce came in the form of a two-run ninth-inning homer off Austin Romine, normally the Yankees’ backup catcher but here just the second position player ever to pitch in a postseason game.
High velocity was on order via the night’s starting pitching matchup, which pitted the two AL starters with the fastest average fastballs in Severino (97.9 mph, per Pitch Info) and Nathan Eovaldi (97.5). Both had fared well against the other team this year (Severino 3.56 ERA and 2.53 FIP in 30.1 innings, Eovaldi 1.93 ERA and 2.82 FIP in 23.1 innings), but the truth is that the Red Sox came in well set up to counter Severino. Via Statcast, they owned the majors’ highest xwOBA, second-highest batting average, third-highest slugging percentage, and fourth-highest wOBA against fastballs from righties of 96 mph or higher. The Yankees, meanwhile, placed anywhere from 10th to 17th by those measures:
| Rk | Team | AVG | SLG | wOBA | xwOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BOS | .281 | .444 | .348 | .359 |
| 2 | LAD | .255 | .441 | .350 | .348 |
| 3 | WSH | .272 | .465 | .361 | .338 |
| 4 | STL | .221 | .339 | .295 | .325 |
| 5 | TOR | .224 | .353 | .294 | .322 |
| 6 | MIN | .248 | .389 | .323 | .319 |
| 7 | MIA | .257 | .375 | .318 | .319 |
| 8 | KCR | .288 | .474 | .353 | .317 |
| 9 | CLE | .232 | .373 | .297 | .316 |
| 10 | NYY | .227 | .368 | .299 | .311 |
| 11 | CHC | .240 | .371 | .306 | .308 |
| 12 | SEA | .227 | .330 | .288 | .308 |
| 13 | BAL | .231 | .352 | .300 | .306 |
| 14 | PIT | .222 | .311 | .280 | .304 |
| 15 | HOU | .233 | .357 | .313 | .303 |
| 16 | ARI | .234 | .390 | .318 | .302 |
| 17 | PHI | .246 | .379 | .313 | .298 |
| 18 | OAK | .177 | .275 | .249 | .297 |
| 19 | NYM | .221 | .321 | .275 | .293 |
| 20 | MIL | .235 | .354 | .296 | .291 |
| 21 | ATL | .236 | .347 | .288 | .290 |
| 22 | CWS | .206 | .347 | .271 | .289 |
| 23 | TEX | .207 | .333 | .282 | .285 |
| 24 | LAA | .201 | .296 | .265 | .285 |
| 25 | DET | .209 | .325 | .265 | .282 |
| 26 | TBR | .241 | .323 | .295 | .280 |
| 27 | CIN | .221 | .344 | .285 | .280 |
| 28 | COL | .229 | .365 | .305 | .278 |
| 29 | SDP | .218 | .320 | .260 | .275 |
| 30 | SFG | .212 | .312 | .257 | .245 |
The insertion of Holt at second base in place of Ian Kinsler was a key part of the Red Sox’ strategy. While much was made in some quarters regarding his career 1-for-15 showing against Severino, the Statcast numbers within what’s above dramatically favored him over Kinsler. On 27 such pitches that he put into play, the 30-year-old lefty hit .407 and slugged .815, while the 36-year-old, righty-swinging Kinsler hit .200 and slugged .286.
Said Cora before the game of that choice, “You look at [Holt’s] numbers, and they don’t look great, but if you look at his numbers throughout his career, lefties have done better against [Severino]. He’s still a tough matchup, but the way Brock was swinging the bat, we do feel he can put good at-bats against him. Hopefully, he can get a hanging slider to right field and put it into the stands.”
Sound logic, though Cora couldn’t have known that the slider would come from Romine. “Play the Powerball tomorrow, and hopefully I can get it,” he joked afterwards.
For what it’s worth, third baseman Rafael Devers, who didn’t start either of the series’ first two games, was 0-for-12 career against Severino, with no clear advantage against velocity over Eduardo Nunez, though like Holt, he is left-handed. Anyway…
The tone for the night was set on the game’s first pitch, a 95.5 mph four-seamer from Severino that Mookie Betts turned into a 104.0 mph laser to center field — a very loud out. Severino escaped the inning without allowing a run, but walking J.D. Martinez helped run his pitch count to 15, and he gave up another 100-plus mph screamer to Xander Bogaerts, also on a fly ball to center field. He then labored through 29 pitches in the second inning as the Red Sox scratched out their first run thanks in part to their hardest-hit ball off of him, a 115.7 mph drive into the right-field corner by Devers that Aaron Judge played well enough to hold him to a single. Devers stole second while Steven Pearce (playing first base in place of the injured Mitch Moreland) chased strike three, took third on a grounder to the left side, and scored on a sharp comebacker off a low two-strike slider to Christian Vazquez that squirted past Severino as Devers scampered home.
Severino began the third by allowing back-to-back singles to Betts (105.8 mph) and Andrew Benintendi, with the latter taking second on a throw to third base by left fielder Andrew McCutchen. Martinez’s sharp liner to left was deep enough to score Betts and increase Boston’s lead to 2-0. At 101.5 mph, it was the fifth ball with a triple-digit exit velo; a sixth, a single off the bat of Xander Bogaerts (105.3 mph), quickly followed, and Benintendi scored on Devers’ grounder to second base.
By this point, Boone had righty Lance Lynn and lefty Stephen Tarpley warming up in the bullpen. Down 3-0, there was little apparent reason to stick with his starter, and even less so once Holt and Vazquez punched back-to-back singles on his first two pitches of the fourth. From the press box, it didn’t seem hard to read catcher Gary Sanchez’s body language as he looked over to the dugout for the signs: “Go get him now? [Hit] Okay, how about now?” Yet Boone stayed in the dugout until a four-pitch walk of Jackie Bradley Jr. turned the lineup over for Betts with the bases loaded and nobody out.
“Just hoping [Severino] could get something started to get through the bottom of the lineup there,” said Boone afterwards, “And then we would have Lynn ready for Betts no matter what. And then once the first two guys got on there, thinking Bradley is in a bunting situation, thinking we’re going to take him out and go to the pen there.”
The Red Sox had seven sacrifice bunts all season, none of them by Bradley, who hasn’t laid down a sacrifice bunt since 2015.
With the inning ablaze and the lineup turned over, Boone finally went to get Severino, whereupon his choice came down to Lynn, who made 29 starts but just two relief appearances all year, only one with runners on base, or Chad Green, who made 63 relief appearances. Lynn struck out 23.0% of the batters he faced while walking 10.9%, Green struck out 31.5% while walking just 5.0%, the 11th-best differential among relievers this year. The only arrow that might have pointed to Lynn in that spot is his high ground-ball rate, 49.7% to 31.4% for Green — a choice that would be mindful of the chances of a double play. Still, with 18 outs needed from the bullpen and Game Four on Tuesday night, it likely would have made more sense to use Green or another power arm to miss bats and escape the jam, with Lynn providing some length thereafter.
Boone explained afterwards that Dellin Betances, the first reliever out of the bullpen in both the Wild Card Game and Game Two of this series, was available for only one inning, but he did not explain bypassing Green in favor of Lynn, who walked Betts on four pitches to force in a run, then allowed a bases-clearing double to Benintendi and, two batters later, an RBI single by Bogaerts, running the score to 8-0. Only then did Boone go to Green, by which point it scarcely mattered that he gave up a couple more hits to put the Red Sox up 10-0. The 27-year-old righty wound up throwing 29 pitches while soaking up 1.2 innings, likely ruling him out for Game Four except in an emergency.
“Certainly in hindsight, we could have started the fourth inning with Robbie [David Robertson] or something,” said Boone. “We really felt like Sevy could at least get us a couple outs in that fourth inning before turning it over to Lynn, and then we could roll out our guys. But we just couldn’t stop the bleeding at all.”
Severino was ultimately charged with the first six of the Red Sox’ runs, conceding seven hits and two walks over the course of his 70 pitches. The seven balls with exit velocities of at least 100 mph matched his season high, but that previous appearance was was a mundane six-inning, three-run start against the Royals in an 8-3 win on May 19. While the TBS broadcast reportedly made an issue out of him beginning his pregame warmups late, at 7:32 pm for a 7:40 start, Boone dismissed that as a non-issue. The rookie manager had enough other problems.
By the time the barrage ended, the Red Sox had collected 18 hits, the most by any team in a postseason game in the new Yankee Stadium and the most allowed by the Yankees at a home playoff game since Game Three of the 2005 Division Series, when the Angels peppered them for 19 hits. The 16 runs were the most allowed by the Yankees in any postseason game, surpassing the 15 the Diamondbacks scored upon them in Game Six of the 2001 World Series. Every Red Sox starter collected at least one hit, with Betts, Benintendi, Bogaerts, Devers, and Vazquez (who started in place of Sandy Leon) each collecting two, and Holt his cycle, via a single and a triple in the fourth inning (the latter off Green), a double in the eighth (off Tarpley) and then the homer off Romine in the ninth.
With Boone following Green with Jonathan Holder (2.0 innings, 38 pitches) and Tarpley (1.0 inning, 31 pitches) and down 14-1 heading into the ninth, the Yankees manager at least gave the fans who stuck around a bit of novelty in the form of Romine, just the second position player to pitch a postseason game in history, after the Blue Jays’ Cliff Pennington in Game Four of the 2015 ALCS against the Royals. Holt, due up fourth in the ninth, admitted he wanted to face Romine and was trying for a homer once he got in the box:
“You get a little antsy when a position player is on the mound. I told everyone, ‘Get me up, I need a home run for the cycle.’
[…]
“I scooted up in the box a little bit, and I was going to be swinging at anything and try to hook anything… I was trying to hit a home run. That’s probably the first time I’ve ever tried to… I rounded the bases, and seeing everyone going nuts in the dugout was a pretty cool moment for me.”
Eovaldi, for his part, had relatively little trouble with the Yankees lineup, scattering five hits over seven innings and 97 pitches, striking out five without a walk. The Yankees’ lone run came in the fourth inning, after they were down 10 runs; adding insult to injury, it scored on a double-play grounder in the only inning where the Yankees collected two hits (by Luke Voit and Giancarlo Stanton).
The game did feature one more bit of weirdness: first-base umpire Angel Hernandez made four calls that teams challenged; three of them were overturned. Still, in the company of Boone, Severino, and Lynn, he was hardly the one who had the worst night.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Spot on summary to last night’s baffling strategy that turned into a humiliation.
Very insightful about the Red Sox’s line-up changes. One wonders if this was fueled by luck, or if the analytics did indeed play a part behind the scenes.
I think it’s mostly just old school baseball philosophy (swapping in a lefty for a righty against a righty starter) and some basic analytics. They’re probably aware of Kinsler’s struggles against elite velocity this year and also likely aware of Holt’s performance. Swapping out Leon for anybody is likely just tossing darts assuming someone can do better than what he’s produced of late. If Cora rolls out the same lineup tonight then that would probably more of a hunch than analytics since you would think the right-handed bats would jump back in with Sabathia on the mound.
Old school would prioritize pitcher-batter matchups.
New school would go with the data, which suggested lefties did better against Severino’s high velocity, and Holt specifically against velocity.
and the yankees are throwing CC tonight. i’m very scared.
I’m taking solace in the fact that Boston was a 92 wRC+ team this year. It’s something, I guess.
92 wRC+ against lefties, before anyone says anything…
Right. Thank you. How refreshing that an oversight is met with graceful redirection rather than a dog pile in the comments section of a website.
“The game did feature one more bit of weirdness: first-base umpire Angel Hernandez made four plays that teams challenged; three of them were overturned.”
Wait, why would that be considered weird? Shouldn’t that be considered par for the course for one of the worst umps in MLB? And what the heck is he doing in a post-season game anyway????
To be fair, they were fairly tough calls, even on super slow-mo it was hard to tell if the runner or the ball arrived first on a couple of them, and the teams only challenge after they’ve looked at the video. But, yeah, he wouldn’t have been my first choice for a post-season ump.
I can’t think of any situation in which Angel would be my first choice as ump.
And tonight he’s behind home. Which should be interesting to say the least….
Here’s a situation: He sued MLB for not giving him enough assignments due to his race. Not much choice for them. It’ll be interesting to see how he deals with Kinsler’s plate appearances, if he gets the start at 2B tonight.
I’m curious why this isn’t an easy defense for the league. (Paging Sheryl Ring!) Yes, defending a lawsuit is annoying and can be expensive, but the plaintiff at least needs to make a prima facie case, right? There has to be some low-level evidence that the lack of assignments at least might be due to race.
So what could that be? Did other Latino umps also fail to get enough assignments? Are there not enough of them in the first place? (There are seven whose last names alone tell say pretty firmly that they’re Latino; not sure if there are others. But that’s not a very big number, so this is at least plausible.) Something else? Certainly if one of those two things is true he’s got a pretty strong case.
And what can the league tell us about his performance? If he’s as bad as our general impression is, surely they have data on that. If they can show ways in which he’s one of the worst in the league, it becomes pretty easy to defend. (Or maybe it then leads to another question: why won’t he get canned? If he’s good enough to stick around, isn’t he good enough for more work?)
He claims he has had “high marks on evaluations” and is being passed over for lesser qualified white umpires. Maybe it’s a lack of documentation of things like a short fuse ejecting players for essentially nothing, bad strike zone, etc. I don’t know how they evaluate umpires, but if he has high marks, then they’re doing it wrong. Player polls that rank him by far the worst umpire aren’t really usable as far as evidence for not giving him assignments, either, I would think.
The last one wasn’t a tough call. It was one of the more obvious blown calls at first that you’ll ever see.
Yes, the last one seemed like it shouldn’t have been difficult and that he really wanted to dramatically punch out a double play.
Correction: THE worst.
He claimed discrimination and apparently mlb couldn’t come up with an argument about merit, because mlb. So they shoved him right in there.
As a Yankee fan, I can’t say that was a fun game, but the Holt cycle, with the HR coming off the backup catcher, was still pretty cool.
While managers can definitely be judged on their decisions, there is not much blame or credit that should go to either manager in a 16-1 game. I don’t think either manager could have changed the result in a 15 run game. The players on the field decided this one.
Well, it was 3-0 early, it seemed a little weird to go to Lynn to get out of the jam rather than Green or another of the big bullpen arms. If you hold it to 3-0 instead of 10-0 after that inning, it might have been a different story.
Of course, maybe Green comes in and still gives up the runs, or something else happens later. Boone was slow to act, and the game got out of hand. Not all on his hands – the players sucked too. But definitely fair to question his moves.
In (very limited) defense of Boone:
1) Green didn’t pitch that well either
2) There was very little likelihood of exiting the inning with a 3-0 deficit; I haven’t looked at the run expectancy for that situation but 5-0 seemed most likely.
I can see the merits of critiquing Severino coming back out but it seemed defensible in real time.
I’d bet that if Cora did everything wrong last night and Boone did everything right, the game may have ended up 10-3 instead of 16-1. Criticism and praise of managers is often deserved, but in the playoffs, it’s not the reason for the outcome of every game when the management is under a microscope. Boone is deservedly getting roasted but he cannot overcome a 15 run deficit with better managing. That’s the only point I was making.
How true, JimEd. (Homage to Jim Edmonds #15? Or accident?) Based on media analysis of the post season, every MLB manager except maybe the winning World Series manager, ought to be fired. The funniest part of the article is Jaffe’s argument for running Green out there instead of Lynn when Green gave up two hits and two walks in 1.2 innings.
James Edward Rice #14 (even though Dwight Evans was better) There was no fangraphs around when I was a kid. heh
Well, in Boston’s case, the players on the field were chosen (at least in part) by the manager, so I think maybe he gets some credit for putting them there.
And in the Yankees’ case, again, the manager decides which players are on the field, so it seems like he deserves some of the blame for putting them there. By the end of the 3rd, it was very clear that Severino was not performing well, but it was also still a very winnable game for NY.
I’m not saying the Yankees definitely win if Severino doesn’t start the 4th. Maybe their bullpen holds Boston scoreless for the rest of the game and the Yankees just end up losing 3-1. But Boone didn’t just call for a poorly timed sac bunt or something. He left a poorly performing pitcher in the game for too long and then replaced him with a converted starter who’s maybe the 6th- or 7th-best reliever in the team’s bullpen to face a 10-WAR player with the bases loaded and no outs down only 2 runs. Boone might not be responsible for the loss, but he’s pretty responsible for the margin of defeat.
It is the manager’s job to put his players in a position to succeed. Boone did not do that. Yes, sure, the players are ultimately responsible for their performance. But they certainly didn’t get any help from their manager, and he absolutely deserves some of the blame for the outcome.
The Yankees still had some chance in that game after 3 innings, but “very winnable” is stretching the definition of that term. Per the Fangraphs play log, the Yankees win expectancy last night was already down to 18.9% chance after 3 innings were completed down 3-0. That’s not yet the point of punting on a playoff game, but it’s also a point where it’s defensible to try to get another inning out of a starter because that’s looking like a game where burning through a lot of bullpen innings will be a waste. At that the point, the highly likely scenario – no matter what the Yankees manager does for the rest of Game 3 – is that the Yankees will face a must-win Game 4 the next day and then potentially a must-win Game 5 two days after Game 4.
As for Lynn entering the game to face Betts, that was actually a pretty normal leverage situation (leverage index of 0.97) precisely because (1) the Yankees are already behind by 3 runs and (2) the Red Sox are so likely to score at least one more run with the bases loaded and no outs. Those two factors put the Yankees’ winning percentage down to only 10.2% when Lynn entered the game. Per Tom Tango’s run expectancy matrix based on 2010-15 data, the overall run expectancy is 2.3 runs from that point of an inning, with an 86% chance of at least one run scoring. Those numbers logically increase with three hitters each with 2018 wRC+’s well over 100 due up next (Betts, then Benintendi, then Martinez). I can see an argument for using Green if he’s (oddly) going to come in anyway once Lynn has allowed some runs to score, particularly since Lynn isn’t used to entering a game with runners on base in the middle of the an inning.
TLDR: it’s probably somewhat fair to criticize Boone, but the macro context that’s missing from this comment (and Jaffe’s post) is that we’re talking about decisions by Boone in situations where the Yankees are already down to a 10% to 20% chance of winning Game 3. Managing at that point with a mindset of “preserve the bullpen for Games 4 and 5” is a perfectly legitimate – and indeed necessary – consideration.
I half expect Holt to have a Daniel Murphy-like run now that he’s actually tried (and succeeded) to hit a home run. Sure it was against a catcher, but you never know what will click. “Oh, TRY to hit a home run? Why didn’t I think of that before?” is basically what the swing-plane revolution boils down to.
The NY area media is hot on the topic of the short warmup. I continue to wonder if Severino (or the Yankees on his behalf) is hiding an injury. The velocity seems normal, but he’s suddenly been unable to throw strikes.
https://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=15890&position=P&statArr=111&legend=1,2&split=base&time=game&ymin=&ymax=&dStatArray=&start=2016&end=2018&rtype=mult>1=15
I wonder if the short warmup was someone’s way to protect a hurting arm.
I knew I wasn’t the only one thrown off by the 7:40 start time…
it feels like tonight is a huge game for Boston for the long term. If they lose tonight- Sale has to go in game 5 on Thursday putting Price in game 1 vs Houston on Saturday. Something I don’t think any Boston fan can feel comfortable with. But if they win Sale goes in game 1 and you feel a whole lot better about the situation.
“In stark contrast to the proficiency with which he handled staff ace Luis Severino in the Yankees’ AL Wild Card win, pulling the right-hander after four electrifying (if wild) innings,”
What stark contrast? Severino faced 19 batters in the WC game, 18 batters last night. In the WC game he was pulled with two on/no outs, last night he was pulled with 3 on/no outs. Hard to imagine two more similar usage patterns. And it’s hardly obvious that bringing in Lance Lynn to start the 4th and face the 7-8-9 hitters was the right move. Lynn’s OPS allowed first time thru lineup was .717 this year, while Severino was .596 facing hitters a second time.
I do think bringing in Lynn with the bases loaded was a mistake, given his control problems. But if allowing Severino to go thru the lineup a second time in a close game is an error, than it was also an error in the WC game. The outcome of the two games was different, of course, but we can’t say Boone’s handling of Severino was smart in one game and dumb in the next, when he basically did the exact same thing in both.
I hear you but I think the article went to some lengths to try to argue that Severino’s performance in this game had been worse than to same point in WC and would have justified an earlier hook.
If that is his argument, it’s likely mistaken. The evidence shows pretty clearly that a pitcher’s performance through 3 or 4 innings has essentially no predictive power regarding how well he will pitch in the next inning.
That said, Jay’s focus on exit velocity does raise an intriguing possibility: perhaps a pitcher who is allowing very high exit velocity hits in the early going (vs. his own average performance) is less likely to pitch well over the remaining innings. That seems well worth studying. But I’d be skeptical that it will prove to be a very good indicator…..
The usage patterns are different because Severino was performing worse last night than he was in the Wild Card game, therefore he should have been pulled sooner than he was in the Wild Card game. If anything, the fact that he faced the same number of batters in both games is itself a sign of the stark contrast.
Of the 19 batters Severino faced in the WC game, 8 put the ball in play. Only 3 topped 100mph in exit velocity, and the average EV was 90.8. Severino struck out 7, walked 4, and only allowed 2 hits. He wasn’t great, but he wasn’t bad.
Of the 18 batters he faced last night, on the other hand, 14 put the ball in play, and 7 topped 100mph; the average EV was 94.3. Severino allowed 7 hits and only struck out 2, along with 2 walks. He was pretty bad.
Just to repeat: Severino allowed 8 balls in play in the Wild Card game. Last night, he allowed 7 balls in play over 100mph (including 4 in the 3rd inning alone).
Boone handled Severino well in the WC game because he was pitching good-but-not-great and Boone still pulled him at the first sign of trouble. Boone handled Severino poorly last night because he was pitching badly all night, and Boone left him in for too long.
Unfortunately, there is approximately zero evidence that any of those early game results is predictive of how Severino would pitch in the next inning.
It appears that Boone’s approach was to let Severino get through the order twice, but pull him if he got into trouble at that point. In both games he did get into trouble and he was pulled — even though he had pitched much better previously in one game than the other — Entirely consistent.
Unfortunately, there is approximately zero evidence that any of those early game results is predictive of how Severino would pitch in the next inning.
There has to be a huge amount of selection bias there, given that pitchers who pitch poorly early in games typically don’t get to pitch later in the game.
Selection bias is a challenge to be sure. But Mitchell Lichtman (MGL) has looked at this many different ways, controlling for quality of pitchers and hitters and many other factors, and consistently finds almost no connection between early game performance and later performance.
And remember that pitchers who pitch far better than usual *do* get to continue pitching, and yet they pitch no better than average despite their early dominance.
It’s very counter-intuitive, but the fact is that Servino’s performance over the first 3-4 innings basically told us nothing about what would come next. (The obvious exception is that an injured pitcher may perform very badly.)
Brock Holt has 20 career home runs and 2 career cycles.
10% of the time he hits a home run he hits for the cycle.
Conversely, 100% of the time he hits for the cycle he hits a home run. Amazing!
The Red Sox winning a playoff game because Aaron Boone was too slow to pull his pitcher in the Bronx is my adult life as a baseball fan finally coming full circle.
Somewhere in North Carolina, Grady took a long pull of Gentleman Jack and cranked his recliner back just a little farther
Well, except that’s not at all why the Red Sox won this playoff game. Look at Fangraphs’ own play log for this game, and the Red Sox were already up to a slightly over 80% chance to win this game before Severino came out for the 4th inning.
It’s important to note that if Boone’s goal was to induce a ground ball, one might say he should’ve turned to Zach freakin’ Britton who has one of the highest ground ball rates of all-time!
Britton is ineligible for the playoffs. Ask Buck, he’ll tell you.
So if the Sox win tonight they presumably start the ALCS with Sale and Price for Games 1 & 2 against the only team on Earth better than the Yankees against lefthanded pitching. Anyone see any silver lining from Boston’s perspective?
The most baffling part of this is that Boone thought JBJ was going to bunt. That assumption reveals a phenomenal amount of poor reasoning, given that none of the current situation (up 3-0 in the 4th), the Red Sox’s historical tendencies, or Bradley’s talent level suggested that a bunt would be a good call.
Did Boone consider any information beyond “1st and 2nd, none out, #9 man coming up” in coming to that conclusion?
I agree. I was reading this article, saying to myself well gee, maybe this is being a little hard on Boone. Okay, Severino had given up a lot of singles, but no extra-base hits and he’d only walked one, 3-0 isn’t good but it isn’t the end of the world, and if Severino fields Vazquez’ single,and the Yankees turn a double play on Devers’ grounder it’s only 1-0. And there wasn’t any AB which produced something clearly dramatic like an extra-base hit or more than one run. Nothing which says ‘if this manager doesn’t pull the pitcher now, he isn’t connected to reality’. Then comes his expectation (actually assumption) that Bradley was going to bunt and I was like wtf? Seriously? It doesn’t look like any lights at all are on in this house.
Maybe he forgot this was the AL, and the 9th man wasn’t a pitcher.
Boone has been caught flat-footed multiple times this year trying to steal outs from his starters.
During the regular season i can deal with it. What happened last night was indefensible.
Everything about Boone’s bullpen management all season long is indefensible. His main fault is that he tends to use his good relievers when the team is up, regardless of the score, and the poor ones when the team down (or ever tied, often – remember Chasen Shreve giving up a GW HR in extras while Chapman went unused?).
Severino’s been mediocre (for him) at best for the whole second half, and it was painfully obvious to everyone that the didn’t have it last night. 7 100+ mph balls in 3 innings should tell anyone that.
And then going Lynn over Green is perhaps the most bizarre move of them all. Instead of using the better pitcher who has a chance to get you out of the inning, you use the guy who is essentially there as a mop-up man, who literally has zero experience in a situation like that. And once he predictably lets Boston blow the game open, he’s removed *exactly* at the point at which he’s needed (to pitch multiple innings and give the pen a break).
The one silver lining for the Yankees is that the mismanagement let the game quickly get out of reach, and even Boone wasn’t dumb enough to start using the good relievers down by 10 (though I wouldn’t put it past him – to say I was happily shocked when Romine came out for the 9th instead of Robertson is putting it mildly).
So at least they have a pretty rested (outside of Green) core of the pen for game 4. There’s that at least.
Down 3-0 after 3 innings of a playoff game, knowing that if you lose you’ll have a must-win game the next day, is exactly when a manager should most try to steal a few outs from his starter. The leverage index for Holt’s PA at the start of the 4th inning was actually quite low (0.52) because the Yankees had a less than 20% chance of winning the game down that many runs.
Girardi was so much better at this.
Girardi 2019 odds:
Angels: 2-1
Cubs 2020: 5-2
Toronto: 4-1
White Sox: 5-1
Texas: 10-1
Miami: 15-1
Orioles: 20-1
Mets: 50-1
How about we have an article on Alex Coras’ great managing? I love fangraphs and all but all these articles seem to be blaming the Yankees and not giving much credit for the Red Sox Who played, apart from game two, great baseball with great coaching?