Author Archive

Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 4/24/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Hello! Good morning/afternoon, and welcome to the chat.

12:00
Tommy N.: First time in your chat, do you follow MiLB stuff? If so do you have thoughts on Eric Lauer.

12:01
Meg Rowley: I follow some especially at the higher levels, but not as diligently or with as keen an eye as Eric or Kiley, and don’t have specific thoughts on Lauer. But I bet Eric and Kiley do. They’re smart about these things.

12:01
le fan: Did you watch buehler’s debut or did you take the night off?

12:03
Meg Rowley: I watched some but not all of it. Command was spotty at times, but he was probably pretty amped. I like that fastball (very original thought). I’m looking forward to seeing how the curve plays. I think he’ll be good, with the usual caveat that he’s a pitcher, and loving them is always risky because we ask them to do an insane thing.

12:04
CamdenWarehouse: As a Mariners fan, is there any advice you can give Orioles fans about following a team for whose front office you have lost all faith?

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 4/17/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

12:00
Well-Beered Englishman: Would you rather cheer for a team that loses 100 games in the season, or a team that reaches the World Series but loses every WS game 25-0?

12:01
Meg Rowley: Well having been a fan of the 2008 and 2010 Mariners, a team that reaches the World Series and loses horribly. Mostly because my mom taught me I should try new things.

12:01
Albie Lopez: Are you worried about the early numbers from Chris Archer? Strikeouts are there and velocity seems within reasonable error bars. Think he rebounds and has a normal season?

12:03
Meg Rowley: I’m a little concerned. The walks aren’t great. He’s had a hard time locating in some of these starts. That the velocity hasn’t dipped dramatically and that he is still generating swings and misses is why I’m not a lot concerned. It’ll maybe probably straighten out to something more effective than this, but it would be great to see that happen soonish.

12:03
resumeman: Will you be updating the ATC projections for the Rest of Year projections, or will that just be the ZIPS/Steamer ones?

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The Text and Also Subtext of Baseball’s Rulebooks

Baseball is enjoyable this time of year. It’s like catching up with a friend we haven’t seen in a while. We spend April trying to figure out what the game is — not as it is right now, I mean, but as it will be all season. We parse through small bits of over- and underperformance, endeavoring to sift signal from the noise. Shohei Ohtani has been great. That probably means something! Ryan Flaherty has also been good. We might expect that means less. The Dodgers will likely recover; the Padres likely won’t.

With any friend, part of learning the who of them is knowing what matters and what is mere flotsam; alma maters and disappointments, cities lived in. Sayings only our mothers use. It’s why it is so hard to make new friends as an adult: grown-ups have all these stories from way back, full of people we don’t know, doing all sorts of things. It’s a lot to learn.

And while baseball’s who shifts around and grows, changing with new players and seasons, there are bits that endure, memories of childhood and cut grass that constitute a more fixed personality. I thought I might look beyond April to other artifacts, stories from way back full of people. So, inspired by how little they change year to year, I made perhaps an odd choice — namely, of reading The Official Professional Rules of Baseball and The Official Baseball Rules (2018 Edition), to see what baseball tells us about itself.

Here are a few of the things I found.

Baseball allows for small moments of grace…
Sports inspire intense competition. It’s sort of the whole thing. Once play begins, teams are generally expected to press their advantage, however minute. It’s why managers challenge when an opposing runner comes of the bag for the briefest of instants. It’s annoying, and a bit fussy, but there might be an out hiding in there. Can’t just give up an out! Baseball knows this about itself, this impulse to be fastidious in the service of winning, but it also knows that we humans are prone to make mistakes. Managers have to wear those mistakes when they come in the fourth inning, but earlier, before the stakes are set, baseball allows its generals a bit of grace.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 4/10/18

12:00
Meg Rowley: Hello! And welcome to the chat!

12:00
Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Hi Eric! Is there any prospect that is showing something new this year to elevate their status?

12:01
Meg Rowley: [extreme Janet from The Good Place voice] Not an Eric.

12:01
Wes: I’m confused by the chat time changes. Wasn’t the purpose of you moving to Tuesday to break up Kiley and Eric’s prospect chats? Instead they are Wed and Thur now. Still back-to-back. Not upset since all chats are great, just confused.

12:01
Meg Rowley: The issue was more that back-to-back days on the schedule that had (at the time) only one chat were prospect focused.

12:02
Meg Rowley: So if there was a non-prospect EMERGENCY that required chat coverage (uhhhh the Astros decide to all cobble shoes?) on a Tuesday, we theoretically might not get to it until Thursday.

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Meg Rowley Chat – 4/5/18

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hello, and welcome to the chat!

2:01
Meg Rowley: As those of you who read Eric’s Tuesday chat may have noticed, we are going to be swapping days starting next week to make sure the prospect chats are broken up by non-prospect chats.

2:01
Meg Rowley: Though you should all feel ok asking Eric and Kiley non-prospect questions. They know a lot about this baseball thing.

2:01
Nostradamaso Marte: How’s your Ichiro reunion feeling?

2:02
Meg Rowley: That home run rob may have justified the whole deal, honestly. And then he followed it up with an infield single!

2:02
Meg Rowley: Such Ichiro! I still think that signing is going to end uncomfortably, but it has been ok so far.

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FanGraphs 2018 Staff Predictions

And just like that, the winter of our discontent is almost over. Tomorrow, all 30 teams celebrate Opening Day, and their fans with them. But before play begins, we at FanGraphs will observe our annual tradition of attempting to predict what will happen this year, before we commence our other annual tradition of getting some things wrong. Last year was a mixed bag. Astros? Nailed it. Cubs and Dodgers? Aren’t our moms proud! Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger, Rookie of the Year winners? Can’t say we saw that coming.

We gathered predictions from writers across our family of blogs; what follows are the results.

The American League

The American League predictions are marked by their overwhelming sameness. Of the 40 ballots cast, a full 29 have the Astros, Indians, and Yankees sitting atop their divisions come the season’s end. Eight others feature the Astros and Indians but swap in the Red Sox for the Yankees. That isn’t so surprising: we currently project Houston to win 100 games, while New York, Cleveland, and Boston check in at 95, 94, and 93 wins, respectively.

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On Caring for One Another

I’d like to beg your indulgence to reflect on community. Specifically, our community. Our community here at FanGraphs, sure, but the community of people who care about the rigorous analysis of baseball, too. Communities are home to all kinds of folks engaged in different bits of sin and kindness, all experiencing different stakes. We’re knit together by our sins and our kindnesses, sometimes quite uncomfortably. One such sin is the everyday kind, the sort of casual meanness and lack of care we all wade through all the time. It’s a smaller kind, but we still find ourselves altered by it. I suppose you’ll have to forgive me for worrying on such things; I know we can be suspicious of feelings around here. But don’t fret. There’s another bit of sin, too, a baseball sin.

Earlier this month, Sheryl Ring published a piece called “Can Major League Baseball Legally Exclude a Woman?” The piece considered whether the exclusion of women from baseball, both as players and umpires, was legally permissible under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Specifically, Sheryl, while acknowledging that it wouldn’t be an easy case to make, argued that being male was not a Bona Fide Occupational Qualification for playing Major League Baseball and that the failure to scout, much less hire, women could potentially violate Title VII.

The response in the comments was resoundingly negative. That isn’t in itself a bad thing. It wasn’t a perfect piece, though what piece is? We here like debate. We don’t always get things right, or express our ideas as well as we ought to. Our job as writers is to convince you or move you or both. The issue isn’t that the comments were critical. Rather, what struck me was how quickly some of the voices escalated, from skepticism to certainty to what read, at least to me, as a barely repressed anger that other commenters seemed less sure and more open, that the question had been posed at all.

Communities fight. Communities committed to finding right answers may fight more — and harder — than most. For years, we fought others, fought against bunts and batting average, but we mostly won. Now the lines are less clear; the field is muddy and murky and full of fog. We’re still a community, but we’re changing. We’re having to make room for new folks in our digital neighborhood. But as strangers, unburdened by the potential chance encounter at the corner store, we have an odd relationship with the idea of care. The literal distance between us has resulted in a high tolerance for gruffness; I never have to see my barbs land, never have to watch your face color with anger or embarrassment. I am free to forget your stakes, and you are free to forget mine.

But I wish we would remember them. The idea of a woman playing in Major League Baseball means something to me. It stirs something. I long for it, in a way that is embarrassing to talk about in my place of work, which this is, but those are my stakes. They aren’t the only stakes I have, but they’re important ones. I suspect seeing someone who looks like me play the game will make me feel that I belong in a way I don’t quite now. I want it to be real, even as I’m not sure it ever will be.

Others may not have liked the piece or found it convincing. Perhaps the post ought to have lingered longer on the institutional barriers girls and women face when playing baseball. Maybe certain readers thought it didn’t express adequate appreciation of the great distance we have to close. But they could have been nicer about it; they could have shown greater care. They could have appreciated that what means very little to them means a great deal to me and mine, and tempered not their criticism but their ire. They could have thought for a moment about what else we might worry that ire is meant to say: that we are not welcome. They could have remembered our stakes, as members of their community.

That was the everyday sin, the sin of disrespect and unfeeling. It is what makes our community less than perfect and less than perfectly welcoming. It is troubling, this lack of care. I’ve worried every day since then who we might have driven away, who might only ever lurk at the edges of the comments, blistered by those who think the only means by which to disagree is to trample. To ignore others’ stakes.

The baseball sin was the certainty.

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Meg Rowley Chat – 3/21/18

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hello! And welcome to a special Wednesday chat.

2:00
Nat: I’ve been greatly enjoying your contributions since you joined the site! Do you expect any big, Craig Kimbrel-esque trades to go down before opening day?

2:01
Meg Rowley: Thank you! And I’d be surprised (though I suppose we are often surprised by these). This isn’t a trade but boy, Greg Holland still needs to sign somewhere, huh?

2:02
Davy: Have you read today’s THT article? It was fantastic.

2:02
Meg Rowley: I, the managing editor of The Hardball Times, in fact edited today’s piece! And I agree that it is fantastic.

2:03
Meg Rowley: You should all read Annie’s piece on her journey through fandom: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/a-rebuilding-year-my-way-back-to-basebal…

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2018 Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

Throughout the week, we’re publishing our positional power ranking series. If you’re unfamiliar with the process or concept, Jeff explained the series on Monday. Today, I’ll be addressing second base. What fun!

Every position has its theme. You have the bright young things who play shortstop, the fly-ball revolutionaries occupying first base, the catchers who aren’t Buster Posey.

Second base has, in the past, been defined by the veterans at the top, but these rankings portend change in the form of young upstarts. Jose Altuve wrested the top of the rankings from Robinson Cano last year and has only widened the gap between himself and his keystone compatriots; he’s projected to be more than a win better than second place Brian Dozier. And as mentioned, the middle and bottom bits of the rankings feature names like Ozzie Albies, Ketel Marte, Yoan Moncada, and Luis Urias, all of whom could outperform their projections and shift their teams’ positions.

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Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 3/15/18

2:00
THE Average Sports Fan: How would you feel about getting rid of extra innings and just having 9 inning ties?

2:01
Meg Rowley: Hi and welcome to the chat. Yes, I jumped the gun with a question, but to answer it: If the idea is to prevent injury in the minors, then I’d prefer a tie rather than the weird theater of a runner on second.

2:01
Meg Rowley: Sadly, I don’t think that is the purpose here. I think the purpose is as a laboratory for the majors, and boy would that be a dumb bummer.

2:02
Meg Rowley: I’ve been with Manfred on mound visits and pitch clocks and automatic intentional walks, but this feels like a fundamental misunderstanding of his product. Extras are exciting!

2:02
Uncle Charlie: Hi Meg! Do you do fantasy questions?

2:03
Meg Rowley: Never very well! But this is a great chance to encourage you read Fantasy Preview Week over at The Hardball Times! Those guys actually know what they are talking about.

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