It’s Time to Talk About the AL Playoff Picture
It might seem a bit premature, but I think it’s time to talk about the American League playoff picture. Even though we’re only in the middle of June, the field might already be rounding into its final form, so we ought to at least entertain the conversation. During the preseason, we thought we had this all figured out; the preseason is when we feel our most clever. And for the most part, things in this sortable table don’t look terribly different than we expected them to before Opening Day.
| Team | Preseason Odds |
Current Odds |
Win Div | Win WC | SOS | Pyth. Record |
BaseRuns Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 98.8% | 100% | 98.1% | 1.9% | 0.491 | -5 | -2 |
| Indians | 96.6% | 95.9% | 95.4% | 0.5% | 0.477 | -1 | -1 |
| Yankees | 89.7% | 100% | 74.8% | 25.2% | 0.489 | +3 | +1 |
| Red Sox | 84.2% | 99.5% | 25.2% | 74.3% | 0.509 | +1 | +2 |
| Blue Jays | 37.1% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.506 | 0 | +2 |
| Twins | 28.7% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 0.484 | -2 | 0 |
| Angels | 27.1% | 14.0% | 0.1% | 13.9% | 0.510 | -1 | 0 |
| Mariners | 9.4% | 74.9% | 1.8% | 73.0% | 0.516 | +8 | +7 |
| Athletics | 9.2% | 5.6% | 0.0% | 5.5% | 0.508 | +1 | +1 |
| Rangers | 7.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.504 | +1 | +2 |
| Orioles | 4.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.523 | -4 | -3 |
| Rays | 4.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.515 | -1 | -5 |
| Royals | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.501 | 0 | -2 |
| Tigers | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.506 | +2 | +1 |
| White Sox | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.505 | -2 | -6 |
The Astros, Yankees, and Red Sox are the class of the league, with all three teams projected to win at least 100 games and the first two of those each projected to win 103. The Indians are worse than we thought they would be, but the presence of the Royals, White Sox, Tigers, and even the Twins means their pursuit of another division championship likely won’t be imperiled.
We expected the Indians to win, and it looks like they will. We expected the Yankees and Red Sox to kick the snot out of each other on their way to sterling records, and for one of them to end up a quite overqualified Wild Card teams, and that looks overwhelmingly likely, too. And despite their currently narrow two-game lead on the Mariners, we expected that the Astros would run away with the West. That still looks probable, as well. It all still mostly looks probable. We (or at least the projections) were pretty clever.
Except for one thing, that is — namely, that the Mariners are currently in sole possession of the second Wild Card and that the Mariners are 7.5 games up on the Angels.
This isn’t a post about the Mariners, per se, but it is useful to think about how they got to this point. As Jay Jaffe wrote, they’ve been both ridiculously successful in one-run games (currently 23-10) and ridiculously clutch in high-leverage situations. (Their current 7.17 Clutch Score still leads the AL.) Their bullpen is quite good (fourth in the AL). Mitch Haniger has taken a big step forward, Marco Gonzales a more modest one. James Paxton has a FIP in the twos. Jean Segura would deserve to be an All-Star if shortstop weren’t such a crowded position.
But all that isn’t enough. In May, when the Mariners’ lead was more modest, Jeff Sullivan used a metaphor I quite liked when he said that, in the race to the playoffs, “there are many, many more miles to go, and you might say the Mariners are short on supplies.” A playoff lead, even a 7.5-game one, isn’t much use if you can’t keep it. This is where the rest of the AL comes in, and why it might be time to start thinking about Paxton pitching a Wild Card game in Boston.
The AL’s middle class is hilariously, even perilously, thin — a development recently documented by Travis Sawchik. Only six teams have playoff odds above 10%. The Blue Jays, which our projections liked quite a bit preseason, are 33-39 and 12.5 games back of the second Wild Card; they look likely to sell at the deadline. The Twins are mired in a stretch of bad, boring, sub-.500 baseball and have playoff odds below 10%. They are projected to win 79 games. Given how grim the field is, we might not expect that a lot of teams would necessarily be inclined to spend to improve at the trade deadline; one way to win a race is to have a few of your opponents sit down in the middle of the track.
That leaves the Angels — and, if the Mariners are in possession of a flawed roster, well so too is Los Angeles. The Angels do boast Mike Trout, who you may know, and Andrelton Simmons, but other key pieces are either sidelined by injury or underperforming. The Angels have said they are “optimistic” Shohei Ohtani’s UCL sprain might not require Tommy John surgery, but even if that optimism proves to be warranted, it will still be a few weeks before he is even evaluated — and there’s a strong argument for caution if and when he does return. Garrett Richards, Zack Cozart, and Jefry Marte are all on the disabled list. Matt Shoemaker likely won’t pitch again in 2018; Keynan Middleton and JC Ramirez definitely won’t. Ian Kinsler has disappointed. Kole Calhoun’s season has been so bad that talking about it feels unkind.
And while the Angels have a bit more to spend at the trade deadline than the Mariners do, they don’t have a lot lot more in the way of prospect treasure, either. That so many teams are in some state of rebuilding could mean there are a few bargains to be had, but rebuilding teams also tend to be picky about getting prospects of value, and while the AL is a tepid bore, the National League has a bit more juice, with nine teams featuring playoff odds above 10%. The Angels could certainly upgrade at the margins, this isn’t a team that is likely to go get a Justin Verlander like the Astros did last year. The Angels are probably more or less the 2018 Angels.
It could all change, of course. On June 20, 2017, we gave the Blue Jays the best odds to take the second Wild Card; the eventually (if not ultimately) triumphant Twins checked at a meager 6%. A more appropriate cautionary tale might be the 2014 Brewers who, with a paltry run differential of 31, were 45-30 on June 20 of that season and had 71.4% chance of making the playoffs. They went 37-50 the rest of the way. They did not play October baseball; a resurgent Pirates team did. Their banked wins weren’t quite enough.
The Mariners lost last night. A diminished Felix Hernandez pitches today. Wade LeBlanc is an important part of Seattle’s rotation. There are a few issues. The Twins have some prospects and could choose to make moves at the deadline. And the Angels have Mike Trout, who, since June 1, has hit .448/.554/.776 with a 256 wRC+. We’ve been fooled by June teams before. Heck, we’ve been fooled by Mariners teams before. A 7.5-game lead isn’t insurmountable. You might say it’s only June, and that’s true, but then again, it’s already June, and they can’t take those wins away. The Mariners appear to be in command of the second Wild Card spot, with little in the way of legitimate competition at their backs. In a time of feeling clever, it can be nice to see something a bit unexpected, and it’s time to start talking about it.
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.
Unpopular opinion: losing Cano was a bigger boon than minus. The bat is wonderful, but the difference between an aged veteran playing an up-the-middle position and a 2nd baseman trying to learn outfield on the fly and the current iteration is a world of difference.
Also, losing Cano freed the Mariners up to have Gordon, Segura, AND Heredia all in the same lineup at the same time. Speed kills, and the stolen bases, extra bases taken, and infield hits are racking up and making more than just a couple runs’ worth of difference. Especially since all 3 actually get on base.
It is no mere coincidence that they began to streak after losing Robinson Canó.
you’re right. your opinion is unpopular. also insane
i think they’d be better off with the 132 wRC+ up the middle bat
I know it was! And I wasn’t even bashing anyone! I’m a fan of Gordon and Heredia and I’m an Angels fan lol.
The only positive from losing Cano is that they get some money to spend on their biggest need, but they’d still prefer to have Cano.
Except that Cano is really good, while Dee Gordon and Guillermo Heredia are not very good
Speed only kills if it gets on base. Dee Gordon barely cracks .300 OBP, with little to no pop, so even if he’s sparkling on the base paths and good in the field he’ll end up about 1 to 1.5 win player this year. He’s walked 4 times this year – 4 Times!!! His stolen base success rate barely justifies the green light he gets. Why Servais hits atop the lineup is beyond me, and why he gets all star votes is beyond me as well.
I notice that the Mariners generally have Dee Gordon as lead-off ,,, which his .313 OBP doesn’t really merit.
A humble suggestion: like Jackie Bradley Jr for the Red Sox, he might actually benefit from hitting #9. He’s done it once this season. It might be worth a try.
Yes thank goodness they managed to get Guillermo Heredia and his 0.4 WAR into the lineup. There is no version of this team that is better off with Heredia than Canó.
The version in 2023 is likely to be better off with Heredia than Cano. Yep, that’s right, Cano is signed through twenty. twenty. three.
The last 3 years of that contract are going to be dark days indeed.
He’s already essentially justified the contract. Never would have thought it possible, but he did it.
Steroids will do that.
Baseball is unfair – Angels fans
You got Mike Trout with the 25th pick. Ohtani decided to play for you for basically free for three years.
That’s quite a lot of luck.
To be fair it’s looking like it could be 3 months instead of 3 years, and that would be truly unfair to all baseball fans because my god what a specimen.
Sullivan also said something else in that piece, something I commented on at the time:
They’re in the teeth of that suddenly-tough schedule right now, in the middle of a 10-game run facing nothing but Red Sox and Yankees. They’ve acquitted themselves fairly well so far, but there’s a lot of baseball left to play and it doesn’t get any easier. They’ve fattened up on the wins when they could, but now they have to plod on with ever-dwindling supplies as that lead gets thinner and thinner. I stand by my comment:
It’s the Oregon Trail, those supplies are low, the terrain ahead is hostile, their wagon is held together by frayed twine and hope, and… did I just hear a whisper of “dysentery”?
They are most certainly outperforming what we’d expect, and as you note, are in the midst of a crucible of a stretch here. That said, one of the things I really liked about the deal they did with Tampa was that it was clearly aimed at keeping pace now. We’ll see how well it works.
While there’s no doubt in my mind that the Astros and Yankees will be in the playoffs, I take issue with their playoff odds being at 100% before they’ve mathematically clinched a berth
The playoff odds round to the nearest 0.1. Meaning if their odds are above 99.95% it would automatically round up to 100%. Is it truly 100%? No. But it’s not like saying the odds are something like 99.996452% sends a different message from just saying 100%.
Also I find it odd that the Yanks have a 75% chance of wining the division with the Red Sox at only 25%. it just feels that the Yankee pitching depth is getting seriously depleted by injury, and I am not sure what arms they may be able to target in a trade that would give them a significant boost enough to make it worth giving up young talent to acquire. Plus they have tried to stay under the luxury tax threshold so they are probably not likely to take on a lot of salary either. Unless they just set themselves up that way to start, this way if they fall out of contention, they don’t end up paying a luxury tax AND miss the playoffs, but maybe they figured if they’re in it, they might just give in and pay the tax? But again, what pitcher is available that they could get? The pickings seem slim.
I would look forward to the Mariners implosion if the beneficiaries weren’t likely to be the dreaded, cursed, criminal Angels.
Your posts about the Angels the last few days have been bizarre to say the least.
All you folks who were so high on the Blue Jays’ postseason chances before the season are reaaaaaallly quiet right now…
But maybe not as sad as the tanking and middle-of-the-road MLB teams. If the Jays were still in it, you could make a play of any of their non-Vlad Jr. prospects. Instead, your trade assets now have to compete with Donaldson, Happ, etc.
On the bright side, Teoscar Hernandez looks like a real player, especially if you buy that he’s athletic enough to improve his outfield defense (we’ve seen several players improve their outfield defense in the corners in recent years). He’s not likely to be a star, but it’s a great return for the 2017 version of Liriano. So while the Blue Jays definitely made a mistake by not trading Donaldson during the offseason, the FO has at least one good trade to their name in a short time.
I don’t know, I feel pretty good about the depth they acquired in Aledmys Diaz (who really is hitting the ball way better than his results indicate, BABIP can really be a bitch, but his defense is very solid), Yangervis Solarte, Curtis Granderson and Randal Grichuk. How about Gaviglio? While many contenders will be fighting over scraps (provided deGrom or Happ are not available as I expect), the Jays struck early and acquired a decent starting pitcher for a bag of beans.
I’d say I’m pretty happy with what management has accomplished in all of these recent trades and signings. Without them this team would certainly be in much worse shape.
Yes, I feel terrible that my crystal ball didn’t foresee the injuries to key players like Stroman, Donaldson and even Diaz for long stretches. The early struggles for Sanchez could possibly be expected but Estrada looked great in preseason. Struggles for guys like Grichuk and Garcia were not a shock.
Thing is, for all of their troubles in May the trend is looking up. Look at the monthly records, they have winning records in two out of three months so far. Guys who struggled early are showing positive results lately – Sanchez, Estrada, Travis, Morales and even Grichuk. Gaviglio and Hernandez emerged as legit full time contributors and Stroman replaces Garcia in the rotation this weekend.
Even the bullpen is coming around after the initial turmoil after losing Osuna. Maybe Osuna overcomes his legal issues but even if he doesn’t they are not completely falling apart any more.
There are over three months of games to play. The Jays could still end up with one of the better rotations in the game if Stroman is healthy and Gaviglio continues his decent performance for the most part as a #5. There are a couple of options warming up in Buffalo if not; Sean Reid-Foley looks pretty good lately. At some point Donaldson will be back, and maybe even Tulo makes an appearance. Maybe Vlad Jr has his MLB introduction.
Lots of positives to watch out for. The Jays are not a dominant team but can be a good one if the current positive trend continues through the summer. That might be enough for the second wild card, especially as pitching for the Yankees and Red Sox keeps breaking down and the Orioles and Rays sell pieces.
Of course, they could easily break down again and have another poor month like May but that applies to every team. That’s baseball!
Well, they were projected for the #14 rotation in the league, the #14 bullpen, the #15 RF, the #12 CF, the #1 3B, the #14 SS (which everyone knew was not going to happen), the #10 1B, and the #9 DH (in the AL). In other words, except at third base, this team was essentially average everywhere. And, if you prefer a continuous variable, they were projected for 6th in WAR in the AL, leading them juuuust shy of a playoff spot before strength of schedule. And everyone knew they played in a tough division (if anything, they’ve been lucky at how bad the O’s have been). What happens to a league-average team playing in a tough division? They wind up a little bit under .500. This is exactly what should have happened. If they were in the AL Central, they’d still have a chance, but they aren’t.
The whole point of thinking the Jays had a shot was that the team had enough depth to help sustain losses and underperformance that every team has, while still benefitting from the overperformers. But there were a lot of reasons to think this wasn’t going to happen.
(for reference, the “glass-is-half-full” argument is laid out here: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-talk-about-the-jays-promising-projection/. And yeah, part of the reason why I’m taking a victory lap is because I got killed for saying this before the season.)
But hey, the glass is always half full until it isn’t, even with a 2.7% chance of making the playoffs.
Sure, I guess, take your victory lap. It’s easy to always be the pessimist and shout to the world when something you said actually turns out right. I’m sure you would have been here just as loudly saying how wrong you were if the Jays continued their early success from March/April and were in solid contention.
Good for you to get it right to this point but there were many preseason articles predicting the Jays to have a sneaky good starting rotation this year – they did lead the AL in WAR and ERA in 2016 with essentially the same crew. They are finding their groove now and get a significant mid-season addition in Marcus Stroman – for free! – while other teams are looking over Happ as the best available option for trade. What else is there if he’s not on the market? Add in a better #5 in Gaviglio or Reid-Foley and the Jays rotation could be a pretty good one again for the rest of this season.
What you seem to have overlooked is what Meg mentions in the article above. The teams the Jays have to catch – mainly the Mariners, Angels and Twins – are significantly flawed teams. They have a nice lead but with three plus months to go it is not a comfortable one yet and there are no easy fixes for them on the trade market. The Jays can make up a lot of ground with a hot streak, and they have done that before fairly recently.
I’ll admit I was wrong. Not about the Jays as the season has a lot of play yet, but I did project issues for the Red Sox and Yankees as injuries impacted their starting pitcher depth. They have had injury issues but not as many as I expected and to this point have managed to overcome them better than I expected. Lots of season to go yet but for now it has been a non-issue. The Red Sox bats are cooling down some this month so that will be something to watch, especially if they do take more hits on the starting staff. The Jays aren’t worried about these teams right now but any weaknesses in these divisional powerhouses might help them in making up ground on the others.
So you had a beef with the wins projection for the Jays (which was based on ZiPS/Steamer player projections), and you based you counter-argument on these same player projections?
That’s…a bit circular. If your issue is with the algo FG uses to convert player projections int team into projections, that’s a potentially interesting discussion. But instead, it was, “Look, these players don’t project to rank very highly, so…”
Yes, it’s weird that the projection systems didn’t realize that Josh Donaldson would spend most of the first half of the season injured, and that Stroman and Sanchez would both underperform drastically, and that Garcia would forget how to induce ground balls over the winter, and that Roberto Osuna would be arrested and miss half the season. I mean why even bother with these projections if they can’t predict stuff like that?
But do tell, who did you pick to win the second wild card?
But every team has underperformers and injuries. It’s not like the Blue Jays are unusual on this front. Projection systems also miss on breakouts and other such things. But the problem of having an old roster is that not only are injuries more likely, but breakouts become more unlikely. While no one can pick the future perfectly, there were lots of reasons to question the Jays’ projection.
I picked the Angels, FWIW.
come on now was anyone *really* “so high” on the jays playoff chances???