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In Appreciation of Chris Davis Home Runs

The home-run swing comes in many forms. It ranges from the artistic whip-like movement exemplified by Ken Griffey Jr. to the panicked marionette impression favored by Hunter Pence, the muscled uppercut of Prince Fielder to the paintbrush stroke of Carlos Gonzalez. All of them are impressive and beautiful in their own way. (Yes, even Pence’s. The fact alone that he can hit a ball that far with mechanics like that probably means he deserves no fewer than 20 awards.)

The prospect of a Chris Davis home run has become a mundane event. The big man is paid to hit dingers, and lots of them. He does just that. He is Paul Bunyan, and he plays in a stadium that was probably bought at Toys “R” Us and came with Matchbox cars. It helps that he can hit the ball out anywhere, but has taken up residence in Baltimore. Davis home runs are like Billy Hamilton steals and Max Scherzer strikeouts. They happen early and often, and therefore it’s easy to lose sight of just how damn cool they are.

“Cool” perhaps isn’t the first word to pop into one’s head when seeking to describe Davis. “Big,” “strong,” “gargantuan”… these are all good and sound adjectives. But make no mistake. Davis is cool on the field.

Let’s watch him hit a home run.

See. That’s what cool looks like. That’s a cool home run.

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Mike Mussina Should Be in the Hall of Fame

Mike Mussina never won the Cy Young Award. He made the All-Star team only five times over his 18 years in the big leagues. He won 20 games just once, in the final season of his career. His career ERA mark is closer to 4 than it is to 3. In other words, it’s not difficult to see why Mussina hasn’t been inducted into the Hall of Fame yet, given the traditionalism of the electorate. There have been many worthy candidates who’ve accompanied Mussina on the ballot since he first appeared there, of course. Nine players have been elected since Mussina first became eligible, all of them slam-dunk candidates.

Whatever the arguments against him, though, Mike Mussina is almost surely a Hall of Famer. Hall of Fame voting has already technically concluded, so this column serves less as an appeal to voters and more of a general appraisal of the situation, if nothing else. Also, have you seen baseball news lately? I haven’t either, so here we go.

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Ender Inciarte Is Staying in Atlanta a Little Longer

The pieces are starting to come together for the rebuilding Braves. Though they’ve spent their winter stocking up on veteran starting pitchers and piratey-looking utilitymen, it’s been a winter spent with an eye looking to the future. None of the players whom Atlanta has added are standing firmly in the way of a young prospect, and they all make the team just a little bit better for their debut at their new taxpayer-funded stadium.

The extension of Ender Inciarte is a different matter. This isn’t a move that allows the future to happen, it’s one that shows what the future is going to look like. Inciarte has been given $30.525 million to stick around for an extra two years, and the Braves hold a $9 million option for an additional year after that. If that sounds cheap for a young, three-win center fielder, it’s because it is. Here’s how the deal breaks down.

Inciarte Extension Breakdown
Year Age Earnings (Millions)
2016 (Signing Bonus) 25 $3.5
2017 26 $2
2018 27 $4
2019 28 $5
2020 29 $7
2021 30 $8
2022 (Club Option) 31 $9, $1.025 Buyout

MLB Trade Rumors’ arbitration projections pegged Inciarte to earn $2.8 million this offseason, and assuming he’d been his usual productive self this year, he would’ve gotten a good raise next winter. Still, this seems like a real steal. Even if you assume Inciarte will record only the 2.4 wins for which Steamer projects him in 2017 and also assume that wins are going for $8 million a piece this offseason (when $8.5 million is more likely), it’s still likely that Inciarte will produce more than $100 million in on-field value over the next five years.

Ender Inciarte’s Contract Estimate — 5 yr / $115.1 M
Year Age WAR $/WAR Est. Contract
2017 26 2.4 $8.0 M $19.2 M
2018 27 2.6 $8.4 M $22.3 M
2019 28 2.6 $8.8 M $23.4 M
2020 29 2.6 $9.3 M $24.5 M
2021 30 2.6 $9.7 M $25.8 M
Totals 13.0 $115.1 M

Assumptions

Value: $8M/WAR with 5.0% inflation (for first 5 years)
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-27), 0 WAR/yr (28-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

As you can see, this deal saves the Braves a lot of money in the long run, and it gives Inciarte some immediate financial security. Atlanta will now have more money with which to play in free agency and in acquiring players in trades as they look to morph into a contending club.

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An Attempt to Figure Out Michael Pineda

Sometimes, the stuff doesn’t match the production. Pitchers know that, broadcasters know that, coaches know that, and we know that. There are some guys who will sometimes reel off a really incredibly nasty pitch and still get walloped. You know these guys. There’s the fabled Great Stuff of Joe Kelly. There’s Nathan Eovaldi’s gazillion-mile-per-hour fastball. And, of course, there’s Michael Pineda.

In Pineda’s case, we at least have something of an understanding as to why it hasn’t really all come together. Injuries kept him from throwing a big league pitch between 2011 and 2014. He’s never really been the same. Pineda was great for the Mariners in 2011, but since returning, his results have been that of a back-end starter who does his best to give free souvenirs to the fans in the outfield seats.

However, despite his ERA struggles, ERA estimators love him. Our FIP-based WAR says he was worth +3.2 wins in 2016, tying him with Julio Teheran, J.A. Happ, and Tanner Roark, among others who posted strong seasons by ERA. Pineda’s ERA, though, was 4.82, ranking 67th out of 73 qualified pitchers.

And as a guy who watched a lot of Yankee games this year, I can say with certainty that watching Pineda pitch doesn’t leave one with the impression you’re watching a high-end starter. With all his home runs and loud contact, Pineda doesn’t feel like a frontline pitcher. Is he? Is he not? We’re going to try to explain what his deal is.

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Jason Hammel, Useful Free Agent

Even before Rich Hill re-signed with the Dodgers, this was a rough market for starting pitchers.

Consider that sentence. It’s sort of upsetting. Consider that its implications could have been even more dire had the Cubs not declined Jason Hammel’s option and made him a free agent. Hammel isn’t Chris Sale, of course, but what he is, however, is a quality big league starting pitcher. That’s a big deal in this winter’s market, considering how few of those there are. The list of free agent starters one would relish adding to their rotation wasn’t long to start with, and it’s even shorter now. The remaining candidates are uhh… we’ll get back to you on that. Maybe you can ask Ray Searage how you should feel about Ivan Nova.

Regardless, Hammel isn’t the kind of pitcher that you sign to lead your rotation. He’s the kind of arm you stick in the middle of the group because, more often than not, he’ll give you a decent outing. Steamer projects him to be worth 1.7 WAR next year, which is better than, say, fellow free agent Doug Fister. It’s not as good a projection as Nova gets (2.4 WAR), but there’s a bit more certainty with Hammel than there is betting on Nova’s late-season improvements carrying forward.

Now, Hammel isn’t exactly a workhorse. He’s never reached 180 innings pitched in a season, and given that he was shut down at the end of the year with elbow problems, any team signing him should probably expect him to spend some time on the DL. He’s also going to be 34 next year, and his home run problem seems to only be getting worse as the stuff degrades.

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So, yeah, there are some issues here. But this article is supposed to be about Hammel as a valuable commodity. Why are we hyping him up, exactly?

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A Small Way for Cleveland to Improve Their Outfield

Two days ago, I examined what exactly is going on in the San Diego rotation. The notion of a Padres pitcher is almost a philosophical one. Technically there are starting pitchers on the roster, yes, but any resemblance to any quality pitchers, alive or dead, is entirely coincidental.

This is somewhat the case with the group of outfielders currently employed by the Cleveland Indians. I would hesitate to insinuate that these outfielders, who play for a team that reached Game Seven of the World Series, are of a similar quality to the starting pitchers of the Padres. Tyler Naquin, after all, just finished third in the American League Rookie of the Year voting. Brandon Guyer could be sitting on his couch at home and stand a good chance of being hit by an errant pitch and being awarded first place. Lonnie Chisenhall is a solid if unspectacular player. And we must remember that for all his injury tribulations this past year and change, Michael Brantley is still one of the more talented players in all of baseball.

Yet when taken altogether, this does not look like the outfield of a team that just won a pennant, nor one that’s expected to contend for a division title. Cleveland’s strength will always be its pitching. The team is built around Francisco Lindor, yes, but it’s also built around Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. These are the men who decide if the team soars or crashes. If the pitching is good, the team will have a chance. They still need good position players, though, and the outfield gives them three opportunities to do that.

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Who Is Pitching for the Padres?

The Padres are going to be bad next year.

There, I said it. I know, it’s a controversial stance, and I’ll likely be roasted on a spit in the comments for so boldly stating it at the top of the article like that. But I’m a man of principle, damn it. I stick to my guns. The Padres are going to be bad and I’m not afraid to say it.

Of course, that’s not a controversial take, at all. In fact, it hasn’t been a hot take to say that the Padres are going to be bad since, oh, 2011. San Diego won 90 games in 2010 and haven’t topped 77 wins since then. Some of us got a little excited before the 2015 season because A.J. Preller showed up and decided to spruce up the joint with some interesting warm bodies, but then we quickly realized, no, wait, Matt Kemp can’t play defense, Wil Myers can’t play center field, and one can’t rely on James Shields to lead a rotation anymore. Oops.

So here we are, two years later. The Padres are once again rebuilding after their first effort crashed and burned. Myers and Brandon Maurer are the only remaining members of that group of players that was brought in. The Padres are going to be bad, but at least they won’t be entirely uninteresting. Austin Hedges, Manny Margot, Hunter Renfroe and a few others will be getting the keys to the car this time. The kids are here, and they’re going to play. These could be good players at some point. The Padre lineup could be worth keeping an eye on.

Each member of the Padre pitching staff has the air of an extra in Major League, each with the body of a real player, but a face one can’t immediately place. Quick, without looking, how many of the Padres’ starting pitchers can you name off the top of your head? One? Two?

Here’s what the club’s official depth chart looks like. Here’s what ZiPS thinks of that group.

That’s not great, Bob. But really, who are these guys? As in literally, who are they? I’m glad you asked.

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What Is the Baseball Equivalent of a Slam Dunk?

About a year and a half ago, Jeff Sullivan wrote an article here in which he imagined the baseball equivalent of LeBron James. It’s a fun piece. Check it out. I’m a sucker for cross-sport comparisons, and I’ve been watching more basketball recently, because basketball is fun. Jeff’s article has stuck with me, because it came out right around when I started reading FanGraphs, and it was such a novel concept. I assume the WAR calculations he makes in it are somewhat accurate, because I’ve found it’s good policy to always assume Jeff is right (or at least entertaining enough to always look like he’s right).

That article popped back into my head this past Thursday for reasons unknown. Then, later that night, DeMar DeRozan did this.

That’s a pretty dunk. As Kevin Harlan so eloquently states, DeRozan basically appeared out of thin air and slammed the ball down over poor Ricky Rubio, who just wanted to collect the rebound.

Now, why are we talking about slam dunks? There are no dunks in baseball, as unfortunate as that is. Everything is better with slam dunks. Dunking is one of the most surefire ways in all of sports to get a crowd to lose its collective mind. It doesn’t inspire the pure pandemonium of a Champions League goal or a walk-off home run, but it creates a damn good highlight.

There’s something awe-inspiring about watching one 6-foot-8 behemoth of athleticism jump over another behemoth and shove a basketball through a hoop. DeRozan’s dunk isn’t even the most conspicuous display of pure one-on-one physical dominance. (For that distinction, I nominate this LeBron highlight.) DeRozan’s is the product a bit more of finesse and court awareness. It’s hard to leap up, grab the ball off the backboard, and slam it down onto Ricky Rubio.

As a baseball writer, I got wondering about how the dunk might translate to my favorite sport. Because the Winter Meetings just ended and there’s been a dearth of blockbuster deals in the meantime (no offense to Dexter Fowler), I decided to write about it.

So, we begin with a question: is there an equivalent of a slam dunk in baseball? To find out, we’d need to boil down what makes a dunk awesome. I just spent a paragraph explaining why they’re cool, but what was I really saying?

Dunks are great because:

  1. They’re an awesome example of one-on-one dominance in a team sport.
  2. They represent extreme displays of athleticism.
  3. They cause both the crowd and the broadcaster to lose their minds when done exceptionally well.

Which plays in baseball fit those criteria?

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The Reality of Aroldis Chapman

As of yesterday afternoon, both Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen had been courted by the Yankees. Both had received offers. And both those offers were believed to exceed the four-year and $62 million deal that had just rendered Mark Melancon the most well-compensated relief pitcher in history.

Brian Cashman said his preference was for Chapman because, among other reasons, Chapman wouldn’t cost a draft pick, and the closer had pitched well in New York. Cashman told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch that he “[didn’t] believe that Jansen would have any issues pitching in New York either, but it’s nice to have that box checked, too.” You have to figure Champan’s 100 mph fastball certainly helped matters.

Cashman got his wish. Chapman is a Yankee once again, to the tune of five years and $86 million. There are reasons the deal makes sense from a baseball point of view. It’s also possible that the spectacle of Chapman’s velocity will have some marketing value. Hal Steinbrenner himself has reportedly stated that he liked the buzz Chapman created at the stadium. By those criteria, it’s possible that they choose wisely, and I’ll address those points in a moment.

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Let’s Get Weird: Ian Desmond Is a Rockie

Hoo boy, here we go. Welcome to prime hot-stove season, everyone. Ian Desmond is going to the Colorado Rockies, and he’s going to be paid $70 million to play there for five years. And, according to various reports, the Rockies may be looking at him as a first baseman. This move is the equivalent of the Denver Broncos signing Lionel Messi. It’s unexpected. It’s bonkers. It’s newly legal in Colorado, and Jeff Bridich is into it.

Man, let’s think about this for a minute. Ian Desmond was a lost cause a year ago. He had imploded in glorious fashion in Washington and then took a pillow contract with the Rangers to play a super-utility man. He wound up moving the outfield and recorded roughly average overall defensive numbers there. He also put together a 106 wRC+ for the year… but just a 65 wRC+ in the second half. Did he go back to being his 2015 self? Was it just a prolonged slump. Was he really a decent hitter once more?

We’re going to find out. We’re also, apparently, going to find out if he can play first base. Or… are we?

I mean, is Ian Desmond really going to play first? Committing $70 million to a guy to play a position entirely foreign to him seems strange. Asking him to play first base after he’s just finished a roughly average offensive season is also strange. If the Rockies wanted to move an outfielder to first base, they could’ve just done so with Carlos Gonzalez, whose defensive skills have been declining for some time now. Instead, the Rockies are going to stick Desmond there and cross their fingers.

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