Let’s Get Weird: Ian Desmond Is a Rockie
Hoo boy, here we go. Welcome to prime hot-stove season, everyone. Ian Desmond is going to the Colorado Rockies, and he’s going to be paid $70 million to play there for five years. And, according to various reports, the Rockies may be looking at him as a first baseman. This move is the equivalent of the Denver Broncos signing Lionel Messi. It’s unexpected. It’s bonkers. It’s newly legal in Colorado, and Jeff Bridich is into it.
Man, let’s think about this for a minute. Ian Desmond was a lost cause a year ago. He had imploded in glorious fashion in Washington and then took a pillow contract with the Rangers to play a super-utility man. He wound up moving the outfield and recorded roughly average overall defensive numbers there. He also put together a 106 wRC+ for the year… but just a 65 wRC+ in the second half. Did he go back to being his 2015 self? Was it just a prolonged slump. Was he really a decent hitter once more?
We’re going to find out. We’re also, apparently, going to find out if he can play first base. Or… are we?
I mean, is Ian Desmond really going to play first? Committing $70 million to a guy to play a position entirely foreign to him seems strange. Asking him to play first base after he’s just finished a roughly average offensive season is also strange. If the Rockies wanted to move an outfielder to first base, they could’ve just done so with Carlos Gonzalez, whose defensive skills have been declining for some time now. Instead, the Rockies are going to stick Desmond there and cross their fingers.
Or perhaps they won’t. Consider: the Rockies have a colorful history when it comes to this sort of decision-making. A few years ago, for example, the club added Gerardo Parra to a roster that already included three starter-type outfielders. The size of the commitment to Parra (three years, $27.5 million) also seemed large, given the club’s other weaknesses. So, if the current edition of the Rockies followed the acquisition of Desmond with a reliever or two and called it an offseason, then yeah, this would continue that lovely tradition. But if they do more than that, the Rockies are in business. And I think that’s precisely what’s about to happen.
About a month ago, I wrote an article about the Rockies’ place on the brink of contention. Paul Swydan, who wrote the InstaGraphs version of this article, got mad at me for stealing his biannual article shtick. In my piece, I concluded that because the Rockies were flush with prospects, impact big-league talent, and intriguing pitching, that they should begin the process of pushing their chips towards the center of the table. Part of what I proposed was signing Edwin Encarnacion to play first base. The need was there, the fit was there, the dreams of Encarnacion mashing dinger after dinger at Coors Field were there.
That was before there were reports of Encarnacion’s price falling, and before there were whispers of the Rockies speaking to him. Desmond’s signing should not preclude the Rockies from going after Encarnacion. If anything, it should encourage it.
By signing Desmond, the Rockies have just punted the 11th-overall pick in the draft. That’s a big deal. And it’s quite a pill to swallow in the name of adding Ian Desmond to your ballclub. So why stop here? Losing the 11th-overall pick is a signal that the Rockies should be ready to stop rebuilding and to start winning. Not in some hazy future, but now. So if you’re going to punt the 11th-overall pick, let’s punt the second round, too. Go all in. Push the chips to the middle of the table. Go sign Encarnacion.
Or, if the Rockies still want their second-rounder, Jose Abreu is available, isn’t he? The White Sox raised the white flag (possibly made of white socks, who knows) when they shipped Chris Sale to Boston. Abreu will probably be following him out the door at some point soon. He’d be a lot of fun at Coors Field, and the Rockies could also grab a good reliever in the process by taking David Robertson along for the ride. Colorado has more than enough young talent to pull such a move off.
They could get even more young talent with another trade. If Desmond is going to play the outfield, the Rockies will need to make room for him. Given how many teams are looking for center fielders, and that the best non-Andrew McCutchen option on the trade market might be Jarrod Dyson, imagine what could happen if the Rockies were to dangle Charlie Blackmon out there. Blackmon is coming off a 3.9 WAR season and is still relatively young at 30. He could be an important part of a contending club next year. The Rockies could turn him into a big-league-ready arm or two, which would make room for Desmond. So, let’s recap and look at the potential lineup.
- DJ LeMahieu, 2B
- David Dahl, LF
- Nolan Arenado, 3B
- Edwin Encarnacion/Jose Abreu, 1B
- Carlos Gonzalez, RF
- Ian Desmond, CF
- Trevor Story, SS
- Tony Wolters, C
- Pitcher
I’ll buy that. This would be an expensive undertaking, and one that will cost the Rockies more than a few prospects. But that’s a price worth paying for a shot at the playoffs, and the Rockies are ready to win. If Desmond is their big buy of the winter and he really does play first base, it will be a ridiculous move worthy of derision, unless he morphs into a plus first baseman and hits like a first baseman.
That’s the most likely outcome here. But, if this is the first step in the Rockies going all-in, then I hope you enjoyed Rocktober. Because if Bridich plays this well, it might just be coming back.
Nick is a columnist at FanGraphs, and has written previously for Baseball Prospectus and Beyond the Box Score. Yes, he hates your favorite team, just like Joe Buck. You can follow him on Twitter at @StelliniTweets, and can contact him at stellinin1 at gmail.
Let’s get weird and not spell it Rocky for some reason
“Some reason” = because the team is named after a specific mountain range not a fictional boxer?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rocky_Mountains
The Rocky Mountian Range. I know “Rockie” is the convention baseball uses, but it is wierd
It’s also the convention commonly used by regional locals to describe singular members of the mountain range, despite the name “Rocky Mountains”. Though, clearly, that’s not something which comes up very often. We usually just say the name of the specific mountain (e.g. Long’s Peak).
“Wierd” is wierd way to spell weird.
I will assume you misspelled “weird” on purpose, because that’s a good one.
This seems like a pretty dumb signing tbh. Desmond was decent at the plate, but not starting 1B quality, and he played a respectable CF. It seems like the Rockies are actually wasting a lot of his value with this move.
This actually reminds me a lot of when the Mets signed Cuddyer: It’s a player that doesn’t seem like a great fit for the team, comes with a lot of red flags attached to him, and is costing the signing team an astounding amount.
Not to be a bum, but did you even read the article…? It goes over all that and more.
I didn’t read the article before the comment, and I acknowledge that my comment ignores the premise of the article, but i left the comment unedited for honesty (I don’t believe in going back and editing comments to hide dumb things i may have said) but also because i disagreed with the premise once i read the article.
I don’t think signing Ian Desmond was a good use of resources for the Rockies when it cost them the highest possible pick to do it and it’s a massive gamble on restructuring their roster or using a mediocre hitter at the lowest possible value defensive position.
I never looked at a possibility of the Rockies contending sooner than later, but that’s a pretty dangerous lineup proposed above if they trade with the White Sox. Not to mention, Robertson and McGee in the back could be a good tandem. If they trade with the Sox, it might not leave much prospect/MLB ready capital for starting pitching, but at the same time, it’s the Rockies, maybe they can win it with big time offense, good defense, and a strong pen.
Ottavino also seems like he might be for real. Estevez and Castro are also very exciting (especially the former).
As cool as *another* power bat would be in Colorado, it seems to be they would be better served acquiring a decent starter. Buy low on Archer? Anderson/Gray/Bettis feel like a solid middle of a rotation, less solid top of a rotation.
Don’t think “low” on Archer is going to be all that low. They’ll want something a shade below what Sale got.
One thumb up and three quarks for Mr. jimithin9!
Actually… I’m surprised we haven’t heard more rumors of Encarnacion going to Denver. He could play a credible 1B for a year or two and he would be a hell of a masher way up there in the rocky-mountain air.
If they’re trying to sell CarGo they can’t very well announce that they don’t think he’s good enough to play the OF anymore, can they?
Shhhhh, stop thinking ahead. Just assume teams say what they mean in press releases.
This thread could be a perfect copy of an exchange after the Parra signing. So, I’m not sure why – since we’ve already seen this situation happen – we need to give the Rockies the benefit of any doubt.
So, so weird.
If he’s really going to play 1B, his bat is below average for the position. He had a 83 WRC+ in 2015 and a 65 the second half of last year. League average WRC+ for 1B was 108, exactly what he posted over a full 2014. Of course, league average WRC+ in 2014 was 109. And he’s never played there before so who knows how good his defense will be.
They could’ve theoretically signed a Chris Carter, Brandon Moss, et al on a cheaper, less lengthy deal. If you can sign a guy like that for just one year to bridge the gap, you can shop for a 1B next year when a signing won’t require draft comp. Signing Edwin, as your post suggests, makes a ton of sense too.
If they move, say, Carlos Gonzalez to first and Desmond to the outfield, that’s fine, but they could’ve done that anyway. CarGo could have moved to first and Gerrardo Parra, their third-highest paid player, would’ve then had an outfield spot. Or Raimel Tapia would’ve had a spot to play. They had too many OF before, they have too many OF now, and even if they trade Charlie Blackmon, they’ll still be flush.
Desi does have a .379/.406/.611 career line over 101 PAs at Coors Field. Yes, small sample, and yes, he’s gotten to face Rockies pitching, and yes, Coors, but: that’s real good. He’s also an exceptional athlete – a very athletic if sometimes error-prone SS who became a plus-CF immediately. I am happy to take the “yes” side of “does he provide good defense at 1B” bet. He’s gonna hit, probably more of the 40+ 2B variety than bumping HR too much, but he’ll hit a ton.
The Rockies were planning on having Gerardo Parra be their starting first baseman. Who cares if Desmond is worse than the average first baseman? He’s better than Parra which means the Rockies made themselves better and that’s all that matters. However, I do expect Desmond ends up in the outfield just because Blackmon will get traded but that doesn’t mean that Desmond playing first is a horrible idea. It makes them better. CarGo is a free agent after the year so that’s when Tapia will get playing time. Rockies aren’t worried about giving Parra a ton of playing time. He’s not very good. His defensive stats have taken a huge blow
The point is that if you need a first baseman, there are much better hitting ones you can sign for much less money than they gave Desmond. Desmond’s value comes from being able to play a much more difficult defensive position. Even if we assume that the Rockies are being coy and don’t actually mean this, their stated reasoning was so absurd as to merit mockery. It’s like when Coppolella defended the Simmons trade by claiming that Atlanta might end up better off due to Erick Aybar’s superior batting average.
Desmond’s value does not come from playing a more difficult position. If anything he would lose value for being a below average defender. And why is hitting the only thing that matters? Just because Carter hit 40 home runs doesn’t mean that he’s a better player than Desmond. Carter’s 40 home runs enabled him to become an average player. 0.9 WAR is crap. Desmond had a 3.3 WAR despite being a below average defensive center fielder. There is no player on the free agent market that is both much cheaper and much better than Desmond. Everyone seems to be drooling over Encarnacion who had a 3.9 WAR but shitting on Desmond who had a 3.3 WAR.
WAR has a positional adjustment to it but considering James Loney put up a WAR of 2.1 in 2011 by hitting 12 homers and playing below average defense, I think Desmond will do just fine. It is a pointless argument though considering Blackmon should get traded and Desmond moves to the outfield
As a below average center fielder last season, Ian Desmond had more defensive value than the very best fielding first basemen.
So you think that putting a player that is below average defensively into a position that values defense less is a bad idea? That doesn’t make any sense.
The Rockies are going to burn $14/yr of their (very limited!) budget to sign a player who addresses a need they basically don’t have (aside from what is created by Parra being awful) while ignoring the needs that they do have: a real first baseman and a bullpen piece or three. That… seems distinctly unwise.
I was actually all aboard the Napoli train. Someone who would come cheap(er) and provide excellent defense at first base while Coors masks his ongoing offensive decline. Then push hard for Melancon (already missed that one) and trade for a mid-range reliever. The Desmond signing essentially eliminates all of those possibilities aside from the reliever trade, and it does so without addressing any of the needs those moves were intended to fill.
So… #confused Now if this were Billy Bean, we’d all be trying to figure out what kind of 3D Chess, fifteen-steps-ahead kind of game he is playing. Given that it’s the Rockies, I think it’s safe to say that they just did something random and proved that their front office remains the 2016 version of the 2013 Phillies.
Its defintely a need. They just addressed it with something not worth what they paid to fill it
If this were Billy Bean, we’d all be trying to figure out how Ian Desmond makes the Rockies more inclusive.
Oh yeah, your last sentence is totally crap. There was NOTHING random about the 2013 Phillies front office.
Your last sentence is totally wrong.
Your a dumbass.
Your a dumb ass. Two words, dumb ass.
Why are you even posting on this. This has nothing to do with you, it’s about the Rockies and I answered a comment about the Phillies.
Well then why are you posting on here? Your not even on the Phillies anymore.
Two words dumb ass: FRONT OFFICE. I was on the Phillies front office.
WAS. You WAS on the Phillies front office in 2013, not in 2016. Because your a dumb ass.
Do you even see how ridiculous you sound when you type these words out of your mouth?
That answer’s not worth giving an answer to.
Dave Stewart, the gift that keeps on giving. Thanks for all the laughs, I needed them.
You wanna talk laughs, I got two words for you: LAUGHING STOCK. Your the laughing stock of baseball my friend.
Dumb ass.
I WAS the laughingstock of the baseball nerds because they didn’t get it that I was spending the ownerships money to keep the nucleus of our World Series championship team in place. How do you tell the fanbase that you let a popular fan favorite like Ryan Howard walk when you had permission to spend what it takes to keep him? And Ryan had more RBI’s over the previous 5 years than anyone in baseball by a country mile, more than Pujols, more than Cabrera, more than ARod, more than anyone. How much money do you think that would have gotten him as a free agent, especially when all the GM’s are dumbasses who also like RBI’s more than nerds (except for Billy Beane, the one with the “e”). So keeping our core intact, like Red Hourback did with Bird, McHale, and Parrish, made me the laughingstock of the baseball nerds for a little while, because everyone needs someone to be their laughingstock.
Then you came along…….
TLR;
RAJ;
JFK;
WTF;
What are you getting at?
ROLF! You don’t get it, don’t you?
Guess its true, you really are a cave man.
At least I can recognize a caveman when he’s wearing cavewomen’s clothes (;
You mean you’re not your, dumb asses.
Why stop at Edwin. Keep it going. Get Jansen, trade for Quintana.
Not only a poor fit, but a huge overpay as well. Dave and the crowd source projections had him getting 3-4yrs for $50-60M. If the Rockies have $70-80M to spend it’s hard to believe it wouldn’t have better spent on something like Bautista/Brett Cecil or any of the many cheaper, better hitting 1B options (Holliday, Beltran, Napoli, Carter) and lots of money on pitching. Such a bad signing.
Rockies should probably pursue certain types of hitters who are predisposed to do well in Colorado. Probably those that hit pitch-types that don’t rely on movement, and to a lesser extent, those that hit the ball in the air. Desmond does the first thing well (hits fastballs and changeups better than sliders and splits), but doesn’t do the second all that well.
Not sure on the right defensive position, and I agree with the author that this gives COL the flexibility to move an OF (without feeling forced to).
He is going to play all over the field IMO. Zobrist type players are en vogue right now, and he can at least fake it at 7 positions. He is one of those rare cases where you can tell his problems are primarily mental. He might actually benefit his infield defense from not playing there everyday. Watching him play shortstop reminded me at times of Chuck Knoblauch at 2nd, and him not being out there thinking about it everyday might help. I think they sign Chris Carter, keep all their OFs and Desmond plays rover giving everyone but Arenado a day off per 5-8 days. While I think they should try and trade an OF for a pitching haul, I just do not see it happening.
W Kershaw, Hill, Bumgarner, and Moore being some of the toughtest lefties in the game, and making up 20% of all divisonal opponents it makes a bit more sense
Cargo has to be moving to first or traded, unless they don’t believe in tapia being ready midseason. I was thinking blackmon to the bats before the eaton deal so maybe they talk to the cubs or cardinals about him?
This literally makes no sense. Just what in the hell are you thinking, Rockies?
They’re trying to trade Blackmon or Gonzalez for pitching. Desmond is a replacement who bats right handed and has some positional versatility.
I agree with Ryan. Let’s just wait and see what the next move is. I’m assuming Desmond starts in center field after the Rockies trade Blackmon to the Cardinals for a package involving Weaver and Flaherty. After that maybe they go sign Encarnacion Trumbo or Carter
They no longer have to worry about losing their #1 if they do sign Encarnacion or Trumbo.
Desmond turned down the Nats 7 year $107m extension before the 2014 season (2 years of arb + 5 FA years).
He ends up with 8 years for $95.5m + a ninth year option ($13m).
Could have been worse. Glad for him he was able to bounce back.
I may be a Red Sox fan, but I don’t blindly pull for them to the point that I would read “committing $70 million to a guy to play a position entirely foreign to him seems strange” and not remind you that the Red Sox committed $88M to a player in the same situation!
Given the loss of the VERY valuable 11th overall pick (which this past season gave access to talents like Kyle Lewis and Jason Groome), I have to see this as the worst move of the offseason so far by a team. Woof.
Correction: Parra signed with the Rockies this PAST offseason…not a few years ago. No big deal, but figured I should mention it.