Following a two-year stint with the Phillies, southpaw closer Billy Wagner up and signed a 4 yr/$43 mil deal with the division rival Mets. The deal would last from 2006-09 with an option for 2010. In his first season with the Mets, Wagner posted a 2.84 FIP and provided two wins above replacement, a very solid figure given that relievers do not accrue much in the win value column thanks to such small samples of data.

In 2007, Wagner added +1.4 wins with a 3.09 FIP. Last year, despite missing time with injuries, he still managed to produce +1.2 wins. Extrapolated out over a full season that performance would, at the very least, match the year prior. His injuries were very significant, however, leading to Tommy John surgery which kept him out of action down the stretch in 2008 and was set to sideline the flamethrower until the end of the 2009 campaign.

In the offseason, the Mets went out and signed Francisco Rodriguez to a lucrative three year deal, and traded for JJ Putz of the Mariners. Putz has not lived up to expectations thus far but the season is still young and plenty of time exists to turn things around. What happens in September, though? Wagner comes back, all but assured that his option for 2010 will not be exercised thanks to the presence of K-Rod, but still needs to audition for his future employer, whomever that may be.

Assuming he does return in September, and that Putz turns his season around, that could be one very scary three-headed monster at the back end of the bullpen. Wagner might only be used in low leverage situations, but you have to figure he would still be effective given his track record. The Mets may have choked away playoff berths at the end of both 2007 and 2008, but if Wagner can return around that time, his presence might help prevent the trifecta.

The Phillies didn’t make many big splashes this offseason outside of signing Raul Ibanez, but they did manage to avoid arbitration with every eligible player. Some players even signed extensions buying out more arb-eligible years. One of these players was Jayson Werth, who signed a 2-yr/$10 mil extension on the heels of a +5.3 win season. I chimed in around that time basically stating that he should easily be worth the money. Through his first 30 games this season, Werth has done nothing to dissuade this opinion.

After his performance last night, Werth boasts a .295/.395/.562 line with six home runs, seven stolen bases and a .421 wOBA. Four of those stolen bases took place last night, three of which occurred in the same inning. In the bottom of the seventh, with the Phillies leading 4-2, Werth singled off of Will Ohman with one out. Ohman must have tossed over to first at least six times before striking out Ryan Howard. With two outs, Werth decided to make something happen and stole second base. Ohman then pitched around Jimmy Rollins before putting him on when the count reached 3-1.

Raul Ibanez stepped in and both Rollins and Werth stole. Ibanez then walked. Pedro Feliz came up to the plate with the bases loaded, but after the fifth pitch thrown his way, Werth stole home! And a straight steal of home no less, not a situation in which he took the base when the catcher threw to nab another potential basestealer. Werth’s steal of a home was not as straight, per se, as Jacoby Ellsbury’s this season when the Red Sox centerfielder actually swiped home plate on a pitch. Werth’s is what gets classified as a delayed steal, wherein the baserunner takes his secondary lead following the delivery of the pitch but steals later than anticipated, catchingeveryone off guard.

Ronald Belisario delivered the 2-2 pitch to Feliz. Russell Martin caught it and lazily threw the ball back to the pitcher, just as every catcher does following every non-wild pitch. This time, however, Werth anticipated the half-hearted throw and bolted for home. Belisario responded as quickly as one could but his throw did not make it to Martin in time. His fourth stolen base of the night, Werth tied a Phillies record for steals in a game that had not been reached since Garry Maddox did so in 1978. And Werth’s three swipes in the same inning tied a franchise record not matched since Pete Rose accomplished the feat in 1980.

Many people clamor on about Werth’s “inability” to hit same-handed pitching, claiming that his numbers in 2006 and 2007 were inflated due to predominantly facing southpaws. This claim does hold some water, as Werth led baseball in home runs against lefties last season and is among the leaders in slash stats against them over the last few seasons. However, even if you add in some plate appearances against righties and assumed he would hit them at around the same rate he had been, his overall numbers do not drop precipitously. It is essentially the difference between a .385 wOBA and a .375 wOBA, if that. So, yes, his numbers have been inflated, but not very inflated and not enough to say he isn’t a truly great player right now.

This season, he has a .276/.378/.526 line against same-handed pitching which becomes more meaningful given his increased ability to hit righthanders down the stretch last season. A well above average fielder in a corner outfield spot who can also play average or better defense in centerfield, who mangles southpaws and is improving against righties, with the power and speed to easily go 20/20 in a season is a beast of a player. Because he didn’t get full playing time until 29 years old and is overshadowed by the likes of Utley, Howard and Rollins, Werth has not really instilled plenty of confidence in fans outside of Philadelphia with regards to an ability to sustain +4 to +5 win performance. After this season, that should all be assuaged.

When Robinson Cano debuted as the Yankees second baseman in 2005, at the raw age of 22 years old, fans of the empire caught an extended glimpse of a player with the potential to help the team in a big way. His fielding initially stunk, erasing the slightly above average contribution made on the offensive front. Though his season produced no more than one tenth of a win above replacement level, it became clear that some experience could go a very long way.

In 2006, he reached that potential, hitting .342/.365/.525 with a .377 wOBA. Sure, Cano’s isolated patience could have been better and his .363 BABIP seemed sure to regress, but vastly improved offensive numbers coupled with a UZR twenty runs better than his rookie season led to the Yankees keystone cornerman posting +3.5 wins.

Things only improved the following season when Cano produced +5 wins thanks to a +11 UZR mark and offensive output similar to the year prior. Then 2008 happened. Cano’s UZR dropped from +11 to -8, and his offense of +15 to +20 runs nosedived to -10 runs. At just a half-win above replacement, Cano looked lost both at the plate and in the field. After BABIPs well above .300, Cano’s dropped to .286, leading many to suggest that he will once again experience success this season.

In fact, the ZiPS projection system called for a .349 wOBA that would place Cano very close to his solid 2007 campaign. Through 139 PA, Cano is hitting .321/.353/.519, with six dingers and a .376 wOBA. On top of that, his defense has been above average at +2 runs. In 31 games, Cano’s +1.1 wins above replacement have already doubled last season’s end product.

How will he perform from here on out? ZiPS feels confident in Cano’s .376 wOBA to begin the season and sees his true talent for the rest of the season in the .356 range. Should this come to fruition, Cano would end the season hitting .304/.341/.492, a career best 23 home runs, and a .360 wOBA. If he can produce at that level offensively and hover around the league average with the glove, the Yankees will have themselves a very valuable 26-yr old second baseman.

At the beginning of the season I posted here bashing a decision made by Bobby Cox in the Braves’ opening series with the Phillies. The decision involved using both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano in the first two games when the late inning leads were large enough that the two relief aces did not need to appear. In the very next game, the Phillies overcame a 10-3 deficit in the seventh inning to win 12-11.

Neither Soriano nor Gonzalez were available due to their appearances in the prior two games. Of course, the Braves bullpen imploded in that third game and could not find the strike zone, an unforeseen circumstance, but the fact remains that aces like Gonzalez or Soriano could have stopped the bleeding if available.

Well, Cox has effectively redeemed himself in my eyes with his handling of the bullpen in the Braves recent weekend series with the very same Phillies. Most notably, the redemption stems from how he attacked the Phillies hitters in the late innings in Sunday’s 4-2 win.

The Phillies trailed, 3-2, but had a shot to come back in the bottom of the eighth with Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez and the legen… wait for it… dary Matt Stairs due up. Normally at this juncture in a game, the setup man enters to hold the lead for the closer. Not in this particular game. No, instead of Rafael Soriano taking the hill for that eighth inning, Cox sent closer Mike Gonzalez to the mound.

Gonzalez is a power lefty and all three of the power hitters due up that inning were also lefthanded. Gonzalez turned the Phillies away save for a walk to Stairs, preserving the lead. Soriano completed the role reversal the next inning, closing out the win. Granted, Gonzalez is one of few southpaw closers throughout the league but this decision was a breath of fresh air.

It would not have been smart to bring in a righty to face three lefthanded power hitters in order to do nothing other than ensure that Gonzalez entered into a “save opportunity.” For all intents and purposes, Gonzo did record a save in this game because the game had more of a chance of being won or lost in that eighth frame rather than the following inning when Carlos Ruiz was due to leadoff. Yes, Miguel Cairo pinch-hit for Ruiz (what was the point?) and Werth hit for the pitcher, but the more crucial plate appearances took place the inning prior, when Gonzalez did everything he would normally be called on to do, only in an earlier inning.

This is efficient usage of the bullpen, bringing in the right guys at the appropriate times instead of following a dumb, predetermined set of rules. Perhaps Cox feels that both Gonzalez and Soriano are on equal footing and can be flip-flopped as the closer/setup man depending on matchups. If so, bravo, because that is a very sound strategy. This isn’t a closer by committee nor is it sticking to one guy strictly because he makes a lot of money. Instead, using both of these guys in each role plays to their strengths and the weaknesses of the opposition simultaneously rather than one or the other.

Cox arguably mismanaged his bullpen early in the season, but here is to hoping that he continues to use Gonzo and Soriano this way, spitting in the face of a “rule” that states only one pitcher can close out games and these games can only be closed out in the final frame.

Thanks in large part to a very entertaining season so far, choosing which game to highlight each week proves to be quite difficult. Once again, the slate of games on the docket this past week was comprised of some absolute gems, some thrillers, and another position player finding his way onto the mound. Though a few others could give our winner a run for its money, the top game last week saw the Angels and Royals square off on Saturday in the best pitching duel this season.

The Angels bested the Royals, 1-0, behind a strong Joe Saunders outing, beating up on Zack Greinke in the process. Seriously… his ERA entered at 0.40 and left at an uglier 0.51.

While complete games are rare these days, both Saunders and Greinke went the distance in this instant classic. Greinke has now completed four of his seven starts, not necessarily reminiscent of Warren Spahn or Robin Roberts, but still pretty incredible in the present context. Greinke has also been the deserving recipient of an ample supply of attention this season for his absolutely dominant efforts. After “losing” on Saturday, Greinke’s statline looks like this: 7 GS (4 CG/2 SHO), 53.0 IP, 34 H, 0 HR, 8 BB, 59 K, 0.51 ERA, 1.46 FIP.

His counterpart on Saturday has also been doing well albeit with much less attention. Last season, Saunders broke out with a solid campaign; however, he also became the consensus pick for the pitcher with a good 2008 season that will regress pretty significantly the next year. After all, sub-5.0 strikeout rates are generally not that appealing unless the pitcher induces groundballs with the greatest of ease and posts Maddux-esque walk rates. Saunders issued around 2.4 walks per nine last season but he did record grounders on 47% of his balls in play. His +2.8 wins pegged him as a good, but not-as-great-as-a-3.41-ERA-in-31-starts-suggests pitcher.

Following his shutout on Saturday, Saunders has a 2.66 ERA and 4.23 FIP in 47.1 innings of work. His strikeout rate remains unworthy of boasting, but the BB/9 has dropped a bit. At right around +1 win this season, Saunders is once again looking good. Despite a large disconnect in his ERA and FIP, perhaps portending that teams are going to figure him out sooner of later, the Royals looked hopeless on Saturday, much like other teams look when facing Greinke.

The lone run of the game occurred in the bottom of the third on some small ball courtesy of the Scioscia-bunch. Gary Matthews Jr led the inning off with a double. Erick Aybar sacrificed him over to third. Chone Figgins hit a sac fly to rightfield. No other runs would cross the plate though not for a lack of trying as several of the runners who did manage to reach base in this game found themselves in scoring position.

In the top of the fifth, Saunders walked Billy Butler and allowed a single to Alberto Callaspo to start the frame. Runners on first and second, nobody out, and Saunders escaped unharmed thanks to three straight outs at the expenses of Willie Bloomquist, Miguel Olivo and Mike Aviles.

In the bottom of the sixth, Aybar doubled and moved to third two batters later when Maicer Izturis grounded out. The power-sapped Bobby Abreu couldn’t drive him home, though, ending the inning with the 1-0 score in tact.

Erick Aybar made an errant throw on a Bloomquist-grounder to start the top of the eighth, allowing Willie to reach base. Miguel Olivo then singled, moving Bloomquist up to second. Aviles sacrificed both runners into scoring position, leaving Saunders with one out and runners at second and third. Coco Crisp then grounded into a fielder’s choice, with Olivo being retired at third base and Bloomquist moving up to take over that same spot. Now with runners on the corners and two outs, a 4.38 Leverage Index, Saunders got David DeJesus to groundout to third.

The remaining two half-innings went by quickly, with each pitcher retiring the three batters they faced. Four of those struck out and Billy Butler flied out to center to end the game. Two complete games, nine total hits, one total walk, and nine strikeouts. Best duel of the season so far and last week’s top game.

Last night, I felt compelled to write a brief post discussing the drastic woes of the Philadelphia Phillies pitching staff. None of their five starters had an ERA below 5.35 and the triumvirate of Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, and Joe Blanton had surrendered more home runs between them than just about half of the teams in the entire sport. In spite of these horrendous numbers, the Phillies still occupy first place in the NL East. The kneejerk reaction to this combination is to suggest that either the starters will regress or else the team will not make the playoffs.

Curious, I posed a question at the end of the post wondering if anyone could recall similarly poor numbers from a starting rotation that went onto win the division or the wild card berth. The teams brought up in the comments thread were the 1999 Texas Rangers and the 2000 Chicago White Sox. Frequent commenter Kincaid compiled the numbers showing that six Rangers starters with a minimum of 15 starts ranged from 4.56 to 8.60 in the ERA department. The six White Sox starters with a minimum of 13 starts ranged from a 3.79 ERA to one of 6.46, not quite as bad.

The issue with looking solely at the numbers of the individuals is that we are using the current context to look at past numbers. Last season, the NL averaged a 4.30 ERA with the AL not too far behind at 4.36. Certainly, the teams discussed above look awful when placed in the context of the 2008 season, but that is the wrong context. We need to compare these teams and players to the year in which they made the playoffs.

In 1999, the AL ERA sat at 4.87, about a half-run worse than last season. The next season it slightly rose to 4.92. Therefore, when Rick Helling and Aaron Sele posted ERAs of 4.84 and 4.79, respectively, in 1999, they were essentially average at worst.

With this idea in mind, I linked together my Lahman and Retrosheet databases in order to do the following:

a) Calculate AVG ERA for each league in each year
b) Create a table with all starters making at least 12 starts in a season on a team that either won the division or the wild card
c) Compare the ERAs of each individual in each rotation to the league average in that specific season
d) Pool all of those with ERAs at least 0.10 runs worse than the average into a new table

I then told the database to count the number of pitchers for each team and year and sort by the highest number. Since 1969, there have been 170 teams to make the playoffs with at least one pitcher fitting the above criteria. The 170 teams broke down like this:

1 Pitcher: 76
2 Pitcher: 59
3 Pitcher: 26
4 Pitcher: 8
5 Pitcher: 1

One team over the last 40 seasons to make the playoffs featured five starting pitchers with below average ERA marks: the 2006 St. Louis Cardinals, who went onto win the World Series! Now, the numbers here are not entirely perfect in the sense that only one of these pitchers, Jason Marquis, made more than 17 starts. The other pitchers here–Mark Mulder, Sidney Ponson, Jeff Weaver (in his StL stint), and Anthony Reyes–all made 17 or fewer starts.

On top of that, it isn’t as if these five were the concrete rotation of the team entering the post-season. Still, it is incredibly interesting that a team was able to win the world series, let alone make the playoffs, when 96 of their 162 games were started by pitchers with below average numbers.

The teams with four pitchers were:

1975 Boston Red Sox
1977 Philadelphia Phillies
1980 Philadelphia Phillies
1981 Milwaukee Brewers
1995 Colorado Rockies
1998 Chicago Cubs
1998 Texas Rangers
2002 Minnesota Twins

Pitching is certainly important, but as this data shows, including two championship winning teams (2006 Cardinals, 1980 Phillies), teams can certainly get away with employing below average starters some of the time.

One of the more famous axioms in baseball goes something like this – good pitching beats good hitting. A perfectly placed changeup on the outside corner can fool even the best players like Albert Pujols and Alex Rodriguez. Sure, offense plays a major role in the success of a team, but front offices certainly dish out their fair share of funds for hurlers based on the idea that a solid pitching staff can keep their team in any game. With that in mind, here are the ERA, FIP, and K/BB marks for five starters from an anonymous major league starting rotation:

A: 5.35 ERA, 6.61 FIP, 1.80 K/BB
B: 5.65 ERA, 6.43 FIP, 1.70 K/BB
C: 6.67 ERA, 6.18 FIP, 1.23 K/BB
D: 6.84 ERA, 5.65 FIP, 2.56 K/BB
E: 7.27 ERA, 5.89 FIP, 3.75 K/BB

The closer of this team has the following numbers:

Closer: 6.75 ERA, 7.87 FIP, 1.86 K/BB

This team currently sits in first place and sports virtually an identical team from last season when they won the world series. Yes, this is the rotation+closer of the Philadelphia Phillies. In order, the letters above are Brett Myers, Jamie Moyer, Chan Ho Park, Joe Blanton and Cole Hamels. Brad Lidge closes out games for the defending champs.

Myers, Moyer and Blanton, entering play tonight against the Mets, had combined for 23 home runs. Moyer allowed two in the first inning tonight and another in the second, running this tally up to 26 dingers. There are fourteen teams in major league baseball, as in full pitching staffs, that have allowed 26 or fewer home runs. Just about half of the league has allowed as many home runs, or fewer than, these three starters.

Now, Hamels has been hurt by injuries so far, having to leave two games in which he was pitching very well, and these ERA and FIP marks are not likely to hover around their current vicinities. Still, to sit in first place with a rotation putting up those numbers is kind of incredible. Can anyone think of a first place team in the recent past where the five primary starters all posted very ugly numbers?

Last year, Matthew Carruth discussed the idea of anchoring, a process in which fans build their opinions of a player’s season around a good or bad stretch at one of the season’s bookends. It takes extreme contradictory performance, like that of CC Sabathia following his abominable first month to shift these opinions. Otherwise, inaccurate claims are bound to be made and the wrong perceptions of a player’s value and quality will persist. This season, anchoring has occurred for many with regards to Tim Lincecum.

For those wondering why analysts tend to place small sample size disclaimers in their articles, this is the underlying reason. Some people just cannot look at two starts or 15 plate appearances and understand that a change in skill or approach is not inherent. Sure, this possibility always exists but it could just be random given that the pre-requisite playing time for stability has not yet been reached.

Lincecum made his first two starts on April 7 and April 12:

4/7: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K
4/12: 5.1 IP, 10 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

All told, his 8.1 innings, 14 hits, 7 earned runs, 6 walks and 10 strikeouts did not exactly do its best to instill confidence. Then again, it was just two starts and thanks to Sabathia’s dreadful start in 2008 + insane dominance from May to September, we now have the perfect response when people get ahead of themselves. Lincecum had two bad starts, like, omg! Hey, Sabathia 08. End of discussion right there.

Around that point, articles surfaced about Lincecum’s release point (which was fine, a maximum of an inch, inch and a half off from last season, which is not significant, and more along the lines of normal home/road discrepancies in the PITCHf/x data), his delivery, and the possibility of injuries. One more bad start and you got the feeling he might get demoted to work on the windup or sent to the DL with a phantom injury.

Since he “figured it out,” Lincecum has tossed 30 innings, surrendered just 20 hits, allowed 6 earned runs, and boasted a K/BB of 40/6. Combine that with his opening starts and his seasonal line now sits at: 6 GS, 38.1 IP, 34 H, 13 ER, 12 BB, 50 K. He has a 3.05 ERA and 1.93 FIP. He has produced +1.7 wins in the early part of this season, tied with Johan Santana and Dan Haren for the throne of top non-Greinke pitcher to date.

Lincecum is fine–sorry, Mariners fans–and he is going to have another stellar season. As Dave noted not too long ago there is always going to be information to be gleaned from small sample sizes, but going nuts over two tremendous or abysmal starts from a pitcher is an ailment worthy of statistical surgery. True talent levels don’t just evaporate or disappear. They might shift or slightly argue with pre-season projections, but to think Lincecum truly had become a somewhat different pitcher or was no longer as dominant as last season based on two starts in early April is absolute lunacy.

Earlier today I got to thinking about this past offseason and the discussions housed here involving whether or not the Yankees should sign Derek Lowe or Andy Pettitte. Plenty of opinions flew back and forth but the overwhelming result was that Pettitte would be the better fit for the Yankees given the lower salary and lesser commitment. After all, 1-yr/$10 mil (assuming all incentives kick in) is much easier to handle than 4-yr/$60 mil, especially for a team that had spent a pretty penny on CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Mark Teixeira.

Lately, however, with the injury to Chien-Ming Wang and the “emergence” of Phil Hughes, I have heard a few fans suggest that Pettitte should pitch out of the bullpen when Wang returns. At first, I wanted to respond by saying that no, Joba does not belong in the bullpen, until it dawned on me that this age old Chamberlain debate had now been pushed upon Pettitte… which made my head hurt even more than the aforementioned age old Chamberlain debates.

Then I began to remember when Pettitte actually did sign and how everyone seemed to assign the term “fifth starter” upon him. As the title of this post suggests, what gives? Why no love for Pettitte? Do people realize he has been one of the best and most reliable pitchers over the last several seasons?

If Pettitte is a fifth starter, he is without question the best fifth starter in baseball right now, given that he would be a #3 in most other teams in the game and perhaps even a #2. Put him on some of the lesser-quality teams like the Nationals, Rockies, and Pirates and he might actually be the ace.

Over the last four seasons, Pettitte has averaged 213 innings and +4.6 wins. His total of +18.3 wins in that span of 2005-08 ranks ninth amongst all pitchers, ahead of both Jake Peavy and Josh Beckett. In 2004, he missed time due to injuries, but here are his win values from 2002-08, excluding that injury plagued 2004 campaign: +4.2, +5.5, +5.8, +3.5, +4.5, +4.4. Granted, I’m not here to make any sort of Hall of Fame case for the guy, but rather to point out he has had a terribly underrated career and he is still producing at a very high level. In fact, through five starts this season he has already amassed +1 win.

If the Yankees have a fifth starter, it sure isn’t Andy Pettitte, and if any of their starters is going to be relegated into bullpen duty, it should not be Andy Pettitte. People really need to start realizing that what he brings to the table is not a marginal upgrade over an average or replacement pitcher but rather almost the guarantee of +3.5 to +4 wins.

Normally, I like to start my posts off with some history of either the player being evaluated or the study being conducted. Tonight, I’m going to break from that mold given that every baseball fan knows that Barry Zito signed an albatross of a contract with the Giants following the 2006 season and has in no way lived up to the win values meriting such a contract. He also does not add to the team from an extra-curricular standpoint the way Manny Ramirez adds butts in the seats and sells merchandise.

Early in the 2009 season, however, Zito has actually looked pretty darn good and one has to wonder if he is going to revert to some semblance of his past form. Sure, he has only appeared in five games, but let’s keep the small sample size comments to a minimum here… after all, do you really think those of us at this site, who harp on the positives and negatives of samples all the time honestly don’t know that we are dealing with small samplels? Short rant over, back to the action.

There have been a few studies conducted linking Zito’s success in Oakland not only with the quality defenses backing him up but also an ability to consistently induce popups. While a popup might seem more random than skill-based, Zito consistently finished amongst the league leaders in this area, ultimately suggesting that some facet of his performance, be it velocity, movement, location, or some combination of the three, allowed him to record a higher than usual percentage of these weakly hit high pops.

During his first two seasons in San Francisco, Zito not only saw his velocity completely drop off the map, but his percentage of popups practically halved. From 2002-06, he ranged from around 15-17%. In 2007 and 2008, he induced popups under nine percent of the time. That could be chalked up as a direct result of the velocity issues or perhaps lesser foul area in San Francisco in which popups could remain in play.

This season, however, Zito’s rate of popups currently sits at 18.8%, higher than any previous season. He is not very likely to sustain a popup rate that but given that Zito has proven himself capable of above average marks in this department, he could very well stick around the 14-17% for the season. Not surprisingly, his velocity is also up to a tad below 87 mph, which only seems significant based on his gradual dropoff into Moyer-territory over the last two seasons.

Zito is not an ace and he probably will never pitch anywhere near as well as he did during the early days in Oakland, but if he can build on this early 2009 success and continue to get popups, all the while sustaining the improved velocity, there is no reason he could not be one of the best fourth starters in baseball. An improved Zito would certainly look much better than most of the other back end of the rotation pitchers consistently garnering opportunities. If the popup rate regresses towards the levels of the last two seasons, though, do not expect this success to continue.