In perhaps the least shocking move of the offseason, the Phillies re-signed Jimmy Rollins over the weekend. While the possibility always existed that he would sign elsewhere, the availability of several shortstop stopgaps drastically reduced his number of suitors. The remaining teams with shortstop vacancies lacked either the payroll flexibility to pay him eight figures per year or the desire to sign a player like him while not being in a position of contention.

For a week or two, Rollins and the Phillies had been negotiating with each other. No other parties were involved. The Brewers were linked to him at one point, but their three-year, $36 million deal with Aramis Ramirez closed that window. The Tigers popped up as potential suitors, but the rumor was baseless.

In the end, the Rollins-Phillies negotiations mirrored those of Derek Jeter and the Yankees last season. Each side knew the eventual outcome, and talks were more centered on how they could compromise while still showing respect to one another, both publicly and privately. The result was a three-year deal worth $33 million, with a vesting fourth-year option valued at another $11 million. The option is a very easy vest, however, so barring extreme health woes, he will play in Philly for four more years.

Realistically, this was the best possible deal the Phillies could sign.

If they weren’t going to offer a max-type deal to Jose Reyes, and didn’t want to deplete the farm system to acquire an Asdrubal Cabrera, Alexei Ramirez or Stephen Drew via trade, then Rollins on a relatively team-friendly deal was a better solution than signing Clint Barmes, Rafael Furcal or Alex Gonzalez. It was also better than simply using prospect Freddy Galvis.

Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Braun’s performance-enhancing drug saga is ongoing, and nobody seems to know with any certainty how it will end. Unfortunately, the Milwaukee Brewers are part of that large group eagerly awaiting the outcome. The Brewers aren’t going to re-sign Prince Fielder and now stand to potentially lose their best player for almost a third of the season.

But what do they do?

The team is mired in a strange situation. Do they replace him? Can they replace him? What happens if they spend money to replace him and he doesn’t end up getting suspended? Can they spend money? Realistically, payroll is probably close to its limit right now. Even if Mark Attanasio decides to increase spending, the best way to use those funds remains unclear.

On one hand, idly standing by in the face of his suspension could create an ugly situation: the team might be far from contention by the time he returns, and there is no guarantee that either Zack Greinke or Shaun Marcum will sign extensions. On the other hand, signing a talented player — perceived as a starter around the league — could create a logjam when Braun returns, or if he never leaves to begin with. While this isn’t ideal for the Brewers themselves, it opens up an important strategic dialogue.

Read the rest of this entry »

When he accepted a 10-year, $254 million offer from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim last week, free-agent first baseman Albert Pujols ended a tremendous chapter in his baseball career. He also joined a team in California — the state with the highest tax rate in Major League Baseball for those who earn as much as Pujols.

Various sources have noted that Pujols’ decision to sign with the Angels, over the St. Louis Cardinals, could see him forgo millions more dollars to income taxes. Certainly, his leaving Missouri — where the highest marginal tax rate is 6%, plus the 1% local rate in St. Louis — now puts Pujols in a state where the highest tax rate is 10.3%.

But athlete taxation isn’t anywhere near as cut-and-dried as it might seem. Most definitely, it’s not simply comparing rates between states or multiplying a player’s salary by the highest rate. That’s not how it works. As we discussed earlier this offseason, the ‘Jock Tax’ is fairly convoluted and it’s far more intensive.

Read the rest of this entry »

There has been plenty to discuss this offseason, with the Angels, Marlins and Phillies making big splashes and rumors sprouting up left and right every single day. However, Carlos Beltran’s name has barely been mentioned to the point that one could wonder if teams forgot he was available.

According to our nifty custom free agent leaderboard, Beltran was the fourth most productive non-pitcher on the market. At 4.7 WAR, only Jose Reyes, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols performed better last season. Based strictly on offensive value, Beltran’s .389 wOBA and 151 wRC+ ranked third to just Fielder (.408) and David Ortiz (.405). He lost some points for below average fielding but ran the bases at an above average clip. Overall, last season marked a return to form that should have set Beltran up nicely for the offseason, especially considering he was the cream of the available outfield crop.

He can’t regularly play centerfield anymore, but this isn’t the 2009 offseason, when a glut of corner outfielders hit the market at the same time. Aside from Beltran, prominent outfield options include(d) Josh Willingham, David DeJesus, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel and Coco Crisp. DeJesus signed a modest two-year, $10 million deal but the others remain free agents. Even Grady Sizemore was signed to a one-year deal potentially worth $9 million if he meets incentives. Willingham and Cuddyer will probably end up signing deals with average annual values in the $7-$10 million range. Beltran’s desired salary is largely unknown but it’s hard to fathom him requesting much more than Willingham and Cuddyer, despite superior production.

Beltran will end up signing for something like one year and $12 million, or two years and $20 million, both of which could include playing time incentives. This is well below what 4-5 WAR often costs on the market, but a low enough salary that teams aren’t scared off by his injury history. The lack of interest in Beltran is strange, but likely means some team will get a very productive player at a relative bargain.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Albert Pujols era is officially over in St. Louis.

The future Hall of Famer signed a 10-year deal worth $250-$260 million with the Los Angeles Angels this morning, leaving a bittersweet taste in the mouths of Cardinals fans. Pujols undoubtedly helped lead them to an unlikely World Series championship in 2011, but he’ll take no part of their title defense next season. One of the most beloved players in the storied history of the franchise has moved on to, quite literally, greener pastures.

Losing Pujols is tough both emotionally and in terms of replacing significant production, but it isn’t a death blow to the Cardinals playoff odds. If they spend the freed up $22 million — or a portion of it — wisely, the team can absolutely come back strong next year.

Read the rest of this entry »

Jim Bowden tweeted over the weekend that six teams were pursuing reliever Luis Ayala. The list of suitors included progressive teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays. Since these teams typically spend money wisely, their interest in a retread reliever like Ayala is pretty puzzling.

Yes, Ayala had a decent 2011 season with the Yankees, but he isn’t the type of player all these teams should pursue. He isn’t a closer or a traditional setup man. Aside from last season, when he had a 3.40 FIP against lefties and a 4.99 mark against righties, he isn’t very effective against opposite-handed hitters. He has never really lit the league ablaze against same-handed opponents either.

Throughout his career, Ayala has posted average strikeout and walk rates, a decent groundball rate, and home run rates — per nine innings and relative to flyballs allowed — right in line with the league. He was also previously reputed as a rubber-arm reliever, though injuries have taken their toll on his durability in recent years.

Ayala does not really stand out as a reliever worth a guaranteed major league deal that may start a bidding war between teams serious about contending.

The only way this amped up pursuit of his services makes sense is if teams are convinced that he is actually the reliever that posted a 2.09 ERA in 56 innings with the Yankees. That would be a foolish belief.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Dodgers have been very busy this offseason, signing Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, Mark Ellis and Adam Kennedy to free agent contracts. The team also negotiated a mammoth eight-year extension with centerfielder Matt Kemp. In spite of their increased activity, some questions remained around the diamond, one of which centered on the return of Hiroki Kuroda.

That question was seemingly answered on Friday when the Dodgers signed southpaw starter Chris Capuano to a two-year deal worth at least $10 million. With Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly occupying spots in the rotation, and the team interested in using rookie Nathan Eovaldi in another spot, the addition of Capuano realistically completes the rotation. Kuroda looks like the odd man out, and whether that has more to do with his contractual demands, desire to play elsewhere (the Angels or back in Japan), or retirement considerations, assessments of Capuano’s deal should factor in, to an extent, the opportunity cost of losing Kuroda.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Phillies made the first major splash of the offseason by signing Jonathan Papelbon to a borderline absurd four-year, $50 million contract. The market was clearly flush with closers, or relievers capable of closing, and the Phillies paid a max type of contract for a 65-inning pitcher. Financial wiggle room was a concern before the move and the opportunity costs both realized and hypothetical — bidding farewell to homegrown talent Ryan Madson and perhaps prohibiting themselves from making more important moves elsewhere, respectively — suggested it was a poor move.

However, even without the Phillies context, signing any closer for that much money, over that many guaranteed years, is foolish. Relief pitchers are statistically fickle and don’t really offer a decreased level of injury risk. Over such a small sample of innings, it’s easy to temporarily mask true talent levels, especially when considering the general difficulty in evaluating relievers. By signing Papelbon to such a large deal that early in the offseason, the Phillies explicitly acknowledged their view that he was, by far, the best available option, and one worth spending big bucks on.

In this particular offseason, with so many viable closing options available, nobody is worth spending much money on since the differences between the closers are mostly nominal. The fact that so few closers were signed early in the offseason — besides Papelbon, both Joe Nathan and Jonathan Broxton signed lower-risk deals — indicates that teams are growing wary of doling out big bucks to pitchers occupying an overstated role. In the context of the current offseason, many teams are waiting to sign a closer, allowing the market to settle in order to ink one to a team-friendly deal.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Braves made the very first trade of the offseason by sending Derek Lowe — and 2/3 of his $15 million salary — to the Indians. Though the return was nothing to write home about, Lowe represented unnecessary depth. The Braves had plenty of rotation candidates and freeing up $5 million afforded the team more wiggle room to pursue future transactions. But even after dealing from its major strength, the Braves still employ a whopping nine starting pitchers that could conceivably vie for a spot in the rotation.

Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson are locks. The latter two spots will feature some combination of Brandon Beachy, Mike Minor, Kris Medlen, Arodys Vizcaino, Randall Delgado and Julio Teheran. The Braves clearly have a number of solid pitchers at their disposal, and have been linked to numerous teams in trade discussions. After all, dealing from a strength to fix a weakness is a solid business practice.

However, in this case, the Braves would be better off recognizing that their depth doesn’t exactly qualify as a surplus. A surplus implies that the Braves don’t have a need for all nine of the aforementioned pitchers. Given the checkered injury histories of some and the likely innings limits imposed on others to avoid falling prey to the Verducci Effect, they probably will need all eight next season.

Teams don’t necessarily plan to use eight pitchers at the season’s outset, but the Braves may find themselves in that very position heading into spring training.

Read the rest of this entry »

Mediocre middle infielders have dominated free agency in the early going. Mark Ellis, Clint Barmes and Jamey Carroll have each signed relatively lucrative multi-year contracts at a time when most teams seek bigger impact players. The run on these defense-first, lighter-hitting infielders means that some teams will need to get creative to fill holes at shortstop or second base.

These teams can’t simply wait until mid-January and ink Barmes to a reasonable deal. They may need to make a trade. While shortstopgap free agents like Barmes and Rafael Furcal were expected to get some attention from all the teams shying away from Jimmy Rollins and Jose Reyes, one name seldom discussed is Jason Bartlett.

Bartlett would require a trade with the San Diego Padres, but it’s entirely possible that his very affordable salary, likely reasonable cost to acquire, and minimal commitment makes him the perfect stopgap solution. This is especially true when comparing Bartlett with Furcal, who very well may sign a deal in between Barmes/Ellis/Carroll and Rollins.

With the news that the Padres are considering trading him and Orlando Hudson, it’s worthwhile to explore who might have interest and what Bartlett brings to the table. And no, that isn’t the same table on which free agents are supposedly leaving money.

Read the rest of this entry »