Dodgers Sign Capuano, Bid Farewell to Kuroda?
The Dodgers have been very busy this offseason, signing Juan Rivera, Matt Treanor, Mark Ellis and Adam Kennedy to free agent contracts. The team also negotiated a mammoth eight-year extension with centerfielder Matt Kemp. In spite of their increased activity, some questions remained around the diamond, one of which centered on the return of Hiroki Kuroda.
That question was seemingly answered on Friday when the Dodgers signed southpaw starter Chris Capuano to a two-year deal worth at least $10 million. With Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley and Ted Lilly occupying spots in the rotation, and the team interested in using rookie Nathan Eovaldi in another spot, the addition of Capuano realistically completes the rotation. Kuroda looks like the odd man out, and whether that has more to do with his contractual demands, desire to play elsewhere (the Angels or back in Japan), or retirement considerations, assessments of Capuano’s deal should factor in, to an extent, the opportunity cost of losing Kuroda.
On its own merit, Capuano’s deal is perfectly reasonable. Sure, it seems a bit excessive to guarantee a second year and offer a mutual third-year option for a pitcher who has undergone two Tommy John surgeries, but if he tallies 1.5 WAR per season he’ll out pitch the contract. Relative to Kuroda, though, that isn’t very impressive. Kuroda may have cost $10 million, but he has proven himself to be a 2.5-3 win pitcher.
His age may have factored into this supposed decision, but it’s tough to see how a 37-year old Kuroda, fresh off of two very good seasons, is riskier than a 33-year old Capuano who didn’t even pitch 70 innings in 2010.
Having said that, and having acknowledged the durability concerns in play, their rate stats are fairly similar over the last two seasons:
Kuroda: 7.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 74.5% LOB, 47% GB, 3.60 SIERA
Capuano: 7.9 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 73.5% LOB, 43% GB, 3.67 SIERA
Kuroda threw almost 150 more innings throughout the two-year span and racked up more wins above replacement — his FIP was a half-run better — but if the Dodgers have reason to believe Capuano can remain healthy, his peripherals aren’t too far off of Kuroda’s. If Capuano can throw 185-200 innings over 2012-13, with peripherals in that vicinity, the deal will probably work out. However, the odds are stacked against that reality coming to fruition, especially after considering Matt Swartz’s excellent research on free agents. Swartz found that free agents signing with a new team generally don’t perform as well as those kept by their previous employer. Maybe the Mets weren’t quick to re-sign Capuano given their advanced knowledge of his medical history.
Aside from the health risk, a very real performance risk exists in that Capuano excelled at home in 2011 but struggled on the road. At the friendly confines of Citi Field, Capuano posted a 3.27 FIP, which was 1.7 runs per nine innings better than his road mark of 4.96. The major factor was an inflated home run rate. At home, he posted an HR/9 of 0.89, which blew up to 1.81 on the road.
Then again, Dodgers Stadium isn’t exactly a hitters haven, and according to research by Jeffrey Gross over at The Hardball Times, it actually allows a lower rate of home runs on outfield fly balls than does Citi Field. Per Gross’s article, Dodgers Stadium was close to the bottom in this regard, while Citi Field hovered around the middle.
This isn’t to say that Capuano will simply port his splits to the new destination, but rather that he may be going to an even better home park for his skill-set. There are plenty of ‘if’s’ associated with this deal but it has the chance to benefit the Dodgers. On the other hand, signing Capuano doesn’t really move the needle in LaLa Land, which actually puts the deal right in line with the Kennedy/Ellis/Rivera signings.
It’s one thing to save money in the rotation by signing Capuano over Kuroda if the end game involves shoring up offensive and defensive deficiencies. It’s an entirely different animal when said shoring up involves that aforementioned trio. The Capuano deal probably won’t hurt the Dodgers, but their entire offseason has been questionable, and this move didn’t provide any real answers.
Eric is an accountant and statistical analyst from Philadelphia. He also covers the Phillies at Phillies Nation and can be found here on Twitter.
Please avoid using the pejorative “LaLa Land” in future articles.
I enjoyed it.
Its a dismissive and passively hostile term. Shame on you if you enjoy such things.
It’s actually a recognized nickname for Los Angeles. Look it up. Just relax.
As an Angelo, I don’t find it “pejorative” or “hostile.” That being said, I fucking hate when people say it.
Would you prefer perhaps the “La-La Land of Anaheim” ?
While I was not a fan of it… pejorative? Would you prefer “concrete jungle?” It’s a play on words (well, acronyms) on the fact that Los Angeles is abbreviated to LA. LA LA Land. It strikes me as more whimsical than pejorative.
I’d sure prefer that term applied to my city than Bean-town (I mean seriously, WTF? We haven’t been a major bean producer in over 100 years and being associated with beans is seldom flattering). If Angelinos can’t survive their town being referred to as LaLa, I’m not going to give the Lakers very good odds this year if basketball ever resumes…
Beans are healthy alternative to high cholesterol and sat fats, I wouldn’t mind that overr the stereotype of LA.
This puts the Angels in a nice position to get a good deal on Kuroda.
I’m a little annoyed that I’ve let myself be brainwashed enough that when I read “friendly confines” I thought of Wrigley.
It’ll be interesting to see how he does next year, when he’s another year removed from surgery. In innings 1-5 he had a 3.64 era (in ~154 innings). In the 6th/7th inning, he had an era of 9.55 (in ~30 innings).
It could be that he’s simply a 5 inning pitcher, or it could be that he’ll have more stamina with further separation from his surgery.
He got better as the year went on, and didn’t show much of a platoon split. My one concern would be that while both Dodgers Stadium and Citi are pitcher’s parks, Citi is much better at suppressing home runs, and Capuano can give up a fair amount of hard contact when the Change isn’t sharp.
“Then again, Dodgers Stadium isn’t exactly a hitters haven, and according to research by Jeffrey Gross over at The Hardball Times, it actually allows a lower rate of home runs on outfield fly balls than does Citi Field. Per Gross’s article, Dodgers Stadium was close to the bottom in this regard, while Citi Field hovered around the middle.”
?
literacy FTW
Yeah, that was not one of my finer moments, serves me right for just checking ESPN.com’s park factor.
They’ve been busy. But what do they have to show for it, in terms of additions that are going to help them contend!?
Obviously Kemp is not an added bat and the offense looks abysmal, again!
I honestly don’t think they expect to contend. I think htey just acquired enough stop gaps to hold the team together until all of the bad mones comes off the books after 2013 and the new owner can go nuts on spending (Lilly, Uribe, Guerrier, Rivera, Capuano, Ellis).
*money
WAAAAAAAAAHHH!!
It’s kind of ridiculous that they straight up wasted money on awful players like Ellis, Treanor, Rivera and Kennedy, leading to them not being able to afford Kuroda, a very good pitcher who really wants to play there. This Dodgers offseason is idiocy.
Welcome to the Ned Colletti Era!!
Adding up all the meaningless singning where a league-min young player likely could put up around the same production (i.e. Rivera, Ellis, Treanor, Capuano, Kennedy — about $10MM) and Loney’s likely arbitration salary (about $7MM)…the Dodgers could have found enough money to cover the first year of Prince Fielder’s deal.
Colletti blows money in all the wrong places and then gets a pass because the team is purportedly financially strapped. Nobody does less with more than Colletti. He is the anti-Friedman.