Offseason Notes for December 2nd

Who’s the rat, you guys?

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. A Brief Note re: the Tardiness of Offseason Notes
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League
3. Projecting: ZiPS for San Francisco

A Brief Note re: the Tardiness of Offseason Notes
Offseason Notes is available each morning at approximately 10am ET — which is why it’s entirely understandable if (that?) the reader has spent much of the day wringing his hands anxiously, curious about the whereabouts of said Notes.

Let it be known, first of all, that the author is in good health. Let it be known, secondly, that he (i.e. the author) has recently made an actual friend in his new-ish hometown of Madison, WI, and stayed up later than usual Thursday night watching a Blue-ray edition of The Departed — that is, a film I had never previously seen on a format I had never previously utilized.

In conclusion, a question: who and/or what is the rat?

SCOUT Leaderboards: Dominican Winter League
Batting Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Dominican Winter League (DWL). SCOUT represents an attempt to derive something meaningful from small samples and is the average of a player’s standard deviations from the DWL mean in three important (and regressed) stats: walk rate, strikeout rate, and home-run rate. (Click here for more on SCOUT. SCOUT leaderboards for the Arizona Fall League appear here on Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. Leaderboards for the Venezuelan and Dominican Winter Leagues appear on Tuesday and Thursday, respectively.)

Notes
John Fay’s Reds organization report for Baseball America in the late-September edition of that publication concerned leaderboard newcomer Denis Phipps. Phipps, 26, was signed seven years ago out of the DR — after having played baseball for only two years. His offensive numbers had generally been poor — until this year, when he slashed .346/.397/.527 in 511 plate appearances between Double- and Triple-A. The narrative is that “something clicked.” That’s possible, but he also carried a BABIP of about .450 between the two levels. Could it be a sign that he’s hitting the ball with more authority? Of course. But the ceiling for true-talent BABIPs in the majors is about .350. Basically Ideal Fourth Outfielder is likely his fate.

Pitching Leaderboard
For pitchers, SCOUT is the average of a player’s standard deviations from the DWL mean in (regressed) strikeout and walk rate.

Notes
• Reliever Jairo Asencio has only struck out a single batter in his last 2.2 innings — this, after striking out 25 in his first 15.1.
• Kansas City’s Everett Teaford hasn’t pitched since November 16th, looks like. A cursory tour of the internet reveals no indication that he’s been shut down or left the DR.

Projections: ZiPS for San Francisco
Dan Szymborski has published his ZiPS projections for the San Francisco Giants. Below are some of the notable ones. (All numbers assume major league competition. OPS+ and ERA+ are park-adjusted.)

Brandon Belt, LF, 24: .268/.365/.452, 121 OPS+
Major-league first basemen had an average OPS+ of precisely 121 in 2011, which suggests that Belt could be one of those. Owing to the presence of Aubrey Huff (ahem: .261/.329/.422, 103 OPS+), he likely won’t be.

Buster Posey, C, 25: .287/.358/.440, 116 OPS+
That’s a good projection for a catcher (which position posted a 95 OPS+ league-wide in 2011). Of course, ZiPS doesn’t know that Posey’s leg was destroyed. Nor are we going to tell it (i.e. ZiPS), either: that’s too many emotions for ZiPS to handle.

Gary Brown, CF, 23: .275/.335/.398, 99 OPS+
Brown slashed .336/.407/.519 (.411 BABIP) in 638 plate appearances at High-A San Jose this year — for a wOBA+ of 122. In the most recent edition of Baseball America, the editors of that publication give Brown projections of 80 for speed and 70 for defense (on the 20-80 scouting scale). Brian Cartwright’s OLIVER projects him as a 1.3-win player in 2012.