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Playoff Hindsight and Short Rest

The playoffs often cultivate an ‘anything goes’ environment, where aces like Zack Greinke and Cliff Lee become legitimate bullpen options and starters get lifted before the fifth inning ends for a more favorable matchup. In a sense, playoff rules trump what fans grow accustomed to during the regular season as every single game is of tremendous importance. While many managers alter their mindsets to treat each playoff game as a must-win, the 2011 postseason has shown that the more holistic view of the series can lead to better decision-making processes.

Last week, Dave Cameron discussed Jim Leyland’s refusal to use Justin Verlander in Game Four of the Championship Series. Leyland’s quotes — mainly that using Rick Porcello over Verlander was a no-brainer, or that not using his ace was the best thing for the team — drew significant ire but ultimately made sense. Verlander pitching on short rest would reduce his effectiveness, and the Tigers still needed to win at least two games after that outing. Pitching him on short rest would have been an example of managing for the present as opposed to the future.

Though that type of approach is traditionally more optimal, especially in a five-game division series, it makes little sense in the latter playoff rounds.

Leyland wasn’t alone in that line of thinking, as both Ron Roenicke and Tony LaRussa made decisions based on playoff series, as a whole, instead of a collection of immensely important individual games.

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The Rangers New-Look Playoff ‘Pen

The Rangers carry a 3-2 series lead back to Texas over the weekend, needing just one win to advance to its second consecutive World Series. The team successfully staved off the Angels in the regular season and convincingly took care of the Rays in the ALDS in large part due to its retooled bullpen. The acquisitions of Mike Adams, Koji Uehara and Mike Gonzalez were each singularly effective, but the compounded factor of utilizing this trio has made even more of an impact.

Add to that the relief usage of starter Alexi Ogando and the emergence of Scott Feldman as a late innings threat and it’s clear that this Rangers playoff squad differs substantially from the team that fought for the AL West crown all season long. The new-look playoff bullpen also sheds light on a potentially revolutionary way to effectively use pitching staffs in the postseason.

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Sabathia’s Opt-Out Prospects

CC Sabathia fronted a surprisingly effective Yankees rotation that helped the Bronx Bombers win a league-best 97 games. He threw 237.1 innings of top-notch baseball, tallying 7.1 WAR and improving virtually every aspect of his game. It’s even arguable that he pitched on par with Justin Verlander.

Once normalizing adjustments are made to their successes on balls in play, the gap shrinks substantially. At worst, he was second best. This was Sabathia’s best season since 2008 — when he tore the National League apart with the Brewers — and the fantastic numbers could not have come at a more opportune time. Despite his tremendous contract, Sabathia may choose to exercise his opt-out clause after the season and hit the free agent market.

When the Yankees signed Sabathia to a 7-yr, $161 million contract, the team further enticed the big man with such perks as: a no trade clause, semimonthly payments over the entire calendar year (not just the season) and suites on road trips. Perhaps the most enticing aspect of their offer, however, was the ability to opt out after three years.

Such clauses feel more player-friendly than beneficial to the team, because they enable a player performing well, already signed to a lucrative deal, to cash in even more. Further, it prevents the team from sustaining its surplus value on the contract if the player outperforms the deal.

Opting out certainly carries risk. If the market has a dearth of suitors and none are enthralled with the idea of throwing gobs of money at a single player, he who has opted out may end up signing for less than the remaining portion of the original contract. With Sabathia, the choice boils down to whether he thinks he can find a better deal than the 4-yr/$92 million remaining on his Yankees contract. If there are strong indications a better deal can be had, Sabathia will likely opt out, but he won’t exactly be able to fall back on the 4-yr/$92 million left if all else falls through.

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Two Old Chums Set For Game Five Battle

Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter were drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays within two years of each other in the early to mid 1990s. The two friends, and mountains of men, were supposed to front a talented Toronto rotation heading into the new millennium.

However, in quite the Pulsipher-Wilson-Isringhausen fashion, the desired results were not yielded. Expectations were lofty, but Halladay struggled with command — which sounds ridiculous but remains true — and Carpenter was unspectacular when healthy, and unhealthy rather frequently.

Following the 2002 season, the Halladay-Carpenter experiment ended. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, it’s possible that one more year of patience would have benefited them greatly. That season marked the first when Halladay became Halladay, the eventual Hall of Fame pitcher that will undoubtedly go down as the best of this era.

Carpenter, meanwhile, made just 13 starts and spent three stints on the disabled list with shoulder troubles. His numbers were nothing to write home about — 5.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 5.28 ERA, 4.67 SIERA — and the Blue Jays removed him from the 40-man roster after the season. Intrigued by his potential, the organization offered him an incentive-laden, minor league deal, but Carpenter turned them down. He hit free agency, and the rest is history.

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Three Batters Too Late

The Phillies and Cardinals split the first two games of their division series with each team winning in dramatic fashion. The teams now travel to St. Louis for two more contests after the Cardinals accomplished their goal of splitting on the road. However, both games could have turned out much differently had Charlie Manuel and Tony La Russa more actively managed their starting pitchers.

Kyle Lohse and Cliff Lee were each removed three batters too late, and as reactionary measures after the worst had already transpired. Being proactive in the manager’s seat is very important this time of year, when every out is crucial and a significant mistake can cripple playoff hopes. While Lohse’s implosion and non-removal seems more egregious given the nature of the Phillies comeback, the decision to leave Lee in the game for the seventh inning was just as ill-advised.

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NLDS Preview: Phillies-Cardinals

The Cardinals steamrolled opponents in September en route to one of the biggest comebacks in baseball history. Trailing the Braves in the wild card standings by ten and a half games on August 24, they won 23 of 32 games, capturing a playoff berth on September 28, 2011: a date which will live in baseball insanity.

The Phillies, meanwhile, coasted through most of the regular season. Their 102-60 record marked a new franchise best, and that win total would have been even shinier if not for an eight-game losing streak directly after clinching in mid-September.

The regular season doesn’t matter anymore. Sure, the Phillies have home field advantage throughout the post-season — especially since the NL won the All Star Game — but playoff series are dramatic because anything can happen. The Phillies are a better team on paper, but it shouldn’t surprise anyone if the Cardinals advance to the championship series. The last time a team as hot as the Redbirds made the playoffs, the 2007 Rockies won a one-game playoff against the Padres and subsequently swept the Phillies out of the division series. That Rockies team went to the World Series. Everything clicked at the end of the month and they were able to parlay that late success into playoff victories.

The Phillies lost the second game of that division series primarily because reliever Kyle Lohse served up a grand slam to Kaz Matsui. Lohse was recently named the series opening starter for the Cardinals, adding another parallel. Matt Holliday now plays for the Cardinals, adding even another parallel. But unlike that series, where the 2007 Phillies were successful almost solely due to offensive exploits, this version of the team is built much differently, and forms a much more formidable foe. Here are the major takeaways to get you ready for this potentially very entertaining division series.

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Kershaw and Kemp Could Make History

Clayton Kershaw pitched well in his final start of the season on Sunday, striking out six San Diego Padres and walking one over 7 1/3 innings. Kershaw’s league-leading ERA rose a hundredth of a point to 2.28, while his estimators improved a smidgen — en-route to the 23-year-old’s 21st win this year.

The innings total puts the lefty at 233 1/3, behind only Roy Halladay. He struck out 248 batters, a full 16 punchouts ahead of Cliff Lee. Kershaw’s K/BB ratio ranks behind only Halladay and Lee, and his WHIP is tied for first with Cole Hamels.

Kershaw has had a remarkable season, and while these league-leader recaps might generally point to the Phillies’ front three splitting the Cy Young Award, it’s extremely likely that the Dodgers’ ace wins the award in only his third full season.

In the same game, Matt Kemp went 1-5 — with a double — bringing his seasonal line to a gaudy .324/.400/.581. Only four games remain, but with 37 home runs, 120 RBI and 40 stolen bases, Kemp has a fighting shot at both the National League triple crown and a membership to the 40/40 club.

Both players are either among — or very close to — the elite of the elite, and each has a very realistic chance to win a major regular-season award. The two also play on the same team, which happens to have a so-so 80-78 record. The Dodgers aren’t going to the playoffs, aren’t guaranteed an above-.500 record and have had quite a turbulent season with the team’s very public ownership issues. Yet the fact that Kershaw and Kemp have legitimate shots at winning the Cy Young and the MVP, respectively, says a great deal about the evaluation evolution. In fact, if they both do win awards, Kemp and Kershaw will have made history.

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Cardinals Extend Lance Berkman

The Cardinals and Lance Berkman agreed on a one-year extension on Thursday worth $12 million.

According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the deal includes a full no-trade clause. Though Berkman had retained 10/5 rights and signed a no-trade clause while with the Astros, he was without protection this season. The Cardinals weren’t very active in attempting to deal him as the trade deadline rolled around — much to the surprise of many analysts, myself included — and perhaps this is why. Then again, the events could be mutually exclusive as well, since he could have re-signed with the Cardinals even after being dealt this season. Unless, of course, he let the Cardinals brass know that trading him would detrimentally affect their odds of bringing him back.

Regardless, he’ll remain with the Cardinals through at least next season. But what position will he play? It’s easy to assume this is a great deal that makes everyone happy, but much more is potentially lurking beneath the surface.

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The Elder Young Is Ready To Return

Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder are set to become the marquee free agent first basemen this offseason, but they may have some company. Dmitri Young has reportedly expressed interest in returning to the major leagues. Suddenly, teams missing out on Albert and the Prince have a viable Option C when the signing period rolls around.

/sarcasm

Clearly Young’s desire to return has no bearing on any market whatsoever, but the story remains interesting. Young told Bill Ladson of MLB.com that he plans on participating in the Venezuelan Winter League, beginning in October. From there, the realistic goal is to receive a spring training invitation on a non-guaranteed, minor league deal. After all, he hasn’t played in the major leagues since 2008, and appeared in just 14 games for the Nationals’ minor-league affiliates the very next season. He also officially retired in March 2010, presumably due to his struggles with diabetes.

He wants to come back, but will anyone give him a chance?

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Logan Morrison Files Grievance

The Logan Morrison saga continues, as it was learned Thursday afternoon that the outfielder filed a grievance on the grounds of discipline without just cause.

Morrison believes he was unjustly demoted to the minor leagues on August 13 and took action to, in his paraphrased words, stand for what’s right. Though news of the filed grievance broke Thursday afternoon, it was actually filed on August 25, two days after he rejoined the major league team.

While the reasons the Marlins directly gave Morrison regarding his mid-August demotion were patently absurd, the demotion itself might not have been, which muddies these waters. Morrison probably doesn’t have a leg to stand on here, though perhaps his intentions go beyond merely — again, his words — protecting the rights of guys who have been in the league for a long time.

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