A few weeks ago, I took Ryan Braun with the 10th pick in FanGraphs franchise player draft. Truth be told, I was set to pick Miguel Cabrera before Niv Shah grabbed him with the pick right before mine. I briefly considered an ace like Felix Hernandez or a top prospect, but “settled” on one of the best hitters in baseball who also runs the bases well despite his defense being an all-around negative.

In addition to his durability (150-plus games in each of the past three seasons) and past production (.307/.364/.554 from 2007-2010 with an average of over 70 extra-base hits), I also considered Braun’s improvements at the plate in 2011. His current .417 wOBA is the fourth-best in the National League and would be the highest-single season mark for him since his smashing 2007 debut (.422 wOBA in 113 games).

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It was not too long ago when Jose Lopez was a perfectly capable starter on a major-league team. Sure, he was far from a star, but was league-average bat with passable defense at several positions along the infield. In early 2007, he signed a modest four-year extension with the Seattle Mariners worth around $6 million.

Lopez, 27, went on to produce 2.5 wins over the course of the deal, making it a decent endeavor for the Mariners. Meanwhile, his production dropped from average to replacement level as the deal expired last season. In his final season with the Mariners, Lopez hit .239/.270/.339 in 150 games. He continued to show little plate discipline and actually increased his O-Swing to a career-high 37%. Although he had some room for positive regression in both BABIP and HR/FB, the potential for a mediocre rebound was not enough to justify picking up the $4.5 million option the club held for the 2011 season.

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A check of the traditional metrics suggests that American League Cy Young Award runner-up David Price has regressed this season. After just six losses last season, he has already taken the loss in five of his 13 starts. His 3.35 ERA is still good, but up more than a half run over his 2010 mark of 2.72.

Price has been roughed up a few times this season. Most notably on 4/29 against the Los Angeles Angels when  he gave up five runs on 12 hits in 4.1 innings. In May, he allowed five runs in back to back starts (5/16 v. Yankees, 5/21 v. Marlins). Those brief showings of mortality actually had some in the Tampa Bay area asking the question – what is wrong with David Price?

The answer is nothing. In fact, Price is a better pitcher than he was a season ago. While he was great last season, his peripheral stats were not in line with his win/loss record or ERA. His 3.42 FIP and 3.83 xFIP were both good, but not second-best pitcher in the league good. His “luck” categories, meanwhile, showed some favorable results, although nothing to suggest fluke or steep regression.

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During the summer of 2010, I coined the phrase “The Danks Theory” for a lineup strategy employed by Tampa Bay Rays’ manager Joe Maddon. After having little success against changeup artists like Dallas Braden, Shaun Marcum, and of course, John Danks, Maddon went against the natural platoon split and began starting more like-handed batters against these types of pitchers. The intention behind this method appeared to be neutralizing his opponent’s best weapon, which was thrown more to batters of the opposite hand. The strategy actually dates back to 2008 when Maddon started six naturally right-handed batters and had two switch-hitters bat from the right side against Mike Mussina.

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Jo-Jo Reyes will not go down in history as the starting pitcher with the longest winless streak. As it stands, his 28 starts in between victories is tied for the longest stretch in MLB History. After last tasting victory on June 13, 2008, Reyes was a winner last night.

In addition to getting his first win since 2008, Reyes tossed a complete game for the first time in his big league career. The lefty scattered eight hits over nine innings against the Cleveland Indians, allowing a run on a solo-blast by Shelley Duncan. He struck out four batters while walking an equal amount, but induced 13 groundballs – including three double-play balls. While Reyes earned the victory against the Indians, it was not his best game of the season.

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On Sunday, Jay Buente was the starting pitcher who ended up on the losing end of James Shields’ masterpiece against the Marlins. Now, Buente will have his check issued by the same organization as Shields. Buente, 27, made his starting debut this past weekend against the Rays. Following his poor outing (3IP, 4 R, 3 ER, 3 BB, 1K, 18 BF) he was designated for assignment by Florida and claimed by the same Tampa Bay team that roughed him up three days earlier.

A few weeks ago, I mentioned Buente as a possible alternative to Javier Vazquez in the Marlins’ rotation. Instead of replacing Vazquez, Buente followed him in the spot that opened up as a result Josh Johnson’s injury. Although the Marlins said he would take another turn through the rotation, he was quickly replaced on the roster by reliever Steve Cishek. With Johnson on track to return on June 1, Buente’s time appeared limited in any event.

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Bartolo Colon has taken the early lead for American League Comeback Player of the Year. Over in the National League, Ryan Vogelsong is in the middle of a nice comeback story of his own along the San Francisco Bay. Once upon a time, Vogelsong was a prospect in the Giants system after he was selected in the 5th round of the 1998 draft. He jockeyed for position in the organization before he was shipped to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2001 as part of the Jason Schmidt deal. From 2001-2006, he appeared in 103 games for Pittsburgh with mostly replacement level results.

The right-hander spent a few seasons in Japan before returning to the United States in 2010. He pitched in the Philadelphia organization last season, but did not appear in a big league game. More than a decade after his selection in the draft, Vogelsong has returned to the Giants and is contributing on the major league level.

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Coming into the eighth inning of Wednesday’s game against the San Diego Padres, the Milwaukee Brewers held a 6-5 lead. With just six outs remaining, it seemed like a safe bet that the Padres were done scoring, considering San Diego entered the game averaging just over three runs a game; then the eighth inning happened. Facing a three-game sweep, the mighty Padres’ scored eight runs on nine hits to take a 13-6 lead over the Brewers.

The frame started with Mitch Stetter versus Brad Hawpe in a lefty-on-lefty matchup. Hawpe — who entered the game as a pinch-hitter – pulled a slider into right field for a lead-off single. With the right-handed bats of Chris Denorfia, Jason Bartlett, and Jorge Cantu due up, Ron Roenicke made a move to the bullpen for Kameron Loe. Roenicke’s choice was rooted in sound process especially since Loe has earned a 3.07 FIP/3.17xFIP against right-handed batters since he joined the Brewers’ bullpen in 2010. On the other hand, the results were disastrous.

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When Javier Vazquez signed with the Florida Marlins there was hope that the National League East would once again be a safe haven for his right arm. After posting a 2.77 FIP and an identical 2.77 xFIP as a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2009, Vazquez failed in his second tour of duty with the New York Yankees. His struggles in New York were well documented (5.56 FIP/4.69 xFIP) and even more concerning than the results was a steep drop in velocity. Vazquez never threw much harder than the low-90s to begin with, but was struggling to top out in the high-80s in 2010.

Despite the loss of velocity, a move back to the National League seemed like a wise choice for Vazquez. But whatever plagued him in the Bronx has followed him to South Beach. Coming into his Monday night start against the Philadelphia Phillies, Vazquez had a 5.61 FIP with an xFIP above 6.0. He had more walks (21) than strikeouts (16), and allowed 35 hits in 31 innings despite a .290 BABIP.

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In the spring of 2009, the Tampa Bay Rays had to make a decision between two out-of-option starters: Jason Hammel and Jeff Niemann. The Rays decided on Niemann and shipped Hammel off to the Colorado Rockies. In hindsight, Hammel has become the better pitcher, but who knows if he has the same success in the American League East. In return for him, Tampa Bay received 21-year-old right-handed pitcher Aneury Rodriguez.

Pitching at the Advanced-A level, Rodriguez posted a 3.74 ERA/3.38 FIP in 2008. Upon his arrival to the organization, the Rays promoted him to Double-A. He struggled in the early parts of the 2009 season, but finished strong enough to earn a promotion despite his 4.69 FIP. As a swingman for the Triple-A Durham Bulls (17 starts, 10 relief appearance) in 2010, he posted a solid 3.80 ERA/4.04 FIP in 113 innings.

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