Time to Give Up on Vazquez?
When Javier Vazquez signed with the Florida Marlins there was hope that the National League East would once again be a safe haven for his right arm. After posting a 2.77 FIP and an identical 2.77 xFIP as a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2009, Vazquez failed in his second tour of duty with the New York Yankees. His struggles in New York were well documented (5.56 FIP/4.69 xFIP) and even more concerning than the results was a steep drop in velocity. Vazquez never threw much harder than the low-90s to begin with, but was struggling to top out in the high-80s in 2010.
Despite the loss of velocity, a move back to the National League seemed like a wise choice for Vazquez. But whatever plagued him in the Bronx has followed him to South Beach. Coming into his Monday night start against the Philadelphia Phillies, Vazquez had a 5.61 FIP with an xFIP above 6.0. He had more walks (21) than strikeouts (16), and allowed 35 hits in 31 innings despite a .290 BABIP.
The velocity that he left in Atlanta has yet to resurface and one must wonder if it ever will. Vazquez went in to his last start averaging 88.2 MPH on his fastball. He struggled to average that much against the Phillies.
On Monday, Vazquez failed to complete five innings for the second time in seven starts. He allowed five runs on nine hits. Not only did he fail to register a strikeout, but did not generate one single swing and miss on 75 pitches. Once upon a time, Vazquez had one of the better strikeout rates in the game. After last night, his 2011 K/9 is barely above 4.0.
Coinciding with Vazquez’s drop in velocity and punchouts is an increase in flyballs and overall contact rate. For most of his career, he has been a neutral pitcher. This year, however, he has allowed over 50% flyballs. Hitters have whiffed on less than 5% of his pitches while making contact nearly 90% of the time.
Although it’s early May, it’s not too soon to wonder how much longer the Marlins will continue the Vazquez experiment. For a team with a $57 million payroll (Cots Contracts), it will not be easy to swallow the $7 million salary of Vazquez. On the other hand, for a surprise contender in the NL East, potentially throwing away every fifth game is also bad for business.
In a rotation with four above-average starters, Vazquez sticks out like a sore thumb. Unfortunately for the Marlins, there is no clear-cut alternative. Their top pitching prospect, Chad James, is pitching in A-Ball and their second best, Brad Hand, is not exactly lighting up Double-A (5.22 FIP). Their best option appears to be 28-year-old Jay Buente, who just recently converted from reliever to starter at the Triple-A level. Void of any real candidates to step in and make an impact, it appears as if the fish will be forced to sink or swim with Vazquez for the time being.
Tommy Rancel also writes for Bloomberg Sports and ESPNFlorida.com. Follow on twitter @TRancel
Javier Vazquez is a fat toad.
Hear, hear!
Dyslexics of the world, untie!
I was quite surprised when Vazquez signed for as much money as he did, given the precipitous velocity drop. I was also surprised that it was the Marlins who signed him, because $7 million is a big chunk of their payroll, and they seemed to have a couple of pretty decent fifth-starter options in Sanabia and West (both of whom have since battled injuries). Buente’s numbers in AAA right now do look pretty good, but Vazquez, bad as he is at this point, is probably a safer bet.
Do I know what I’m doing or what?
Hey, I gave up on him a year before you did.
Never gonna give you up
Never gonna let you down
Never gonna run around and desert you
Never gonna make you cry
Never gonna say goodbye
Never gonna tell a lie and hurt you
Rest in peace, Rob Pilatus.
Hopefully Javy Vazquez’s career will soon do the same.
As a Braves fan, I hope they continue to trot out Javy every 5 days.
To Sargent Shriver:
The song that Boxkutter listed was sung by Rick Astley, not Milli Vanilli.
That you know a Rick Astley lyric is just horrifying!
You ain’t kidding.
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/714168/5687320879_ae83d90241_b.jpg
That line practically writes itself, doesn’t it.
Something about Vazquez sleeping with the fishes?
Have to grab that low-hanging fruit when you can.
I’m still laughing at Yankees fans that thought they got the better end of that trade with the Braves.
….They did.
wait how?
Hey, Really great work,I would like to join your blog
anyway so please continue sharing with us.
RE: “How?”
Melky Cabrera’s 2010 WAR: -0.9
Javier Vazquez’s 2010 WAR -0.2
Mike Dunn, the pitcher the Braves got in the deal, had a -0.1 WAR in a small sample. All players involved left their respective teams after 2010, so in analyzing this particular deal, one year is all we have to go on.
Vazquez was marginally better, nothing to really go on about, but for someone to say that they “laugh” everytime people say the yankees got the better end of the deal is stupid.
You forgot about Vizciano, who is one of the top pitching prospects in the minors. he was the key to the deal.
Volstad is an above average starter?
No, Volstad is not a league average starter. His K/9 and BB/9 are well below league average, and his GB% is just above league average. As Eno Sarris will tell us, this failure to achieve benchmarks and the lack of an elite benchmark suggests that Volstad is not an above-average starter.
Toz will tell you that he is what he is – a mid 4.00’s ERA pitcher at best.
We have been proponents of dumping Vazquez for a long time: http://tinyurl.com/6e763g6, http://tinyurl.com/5s9gnw9, and my quote on Alex Patton’s website on April 19:
The funny part about that quote is that Vazquez isn’t throwing as hard as Edwin Rodriguez thinks he is.
Rodriguez is right about one thing…he still hasn’t seen what Vazquez is capable of doing…it gets worse from here.
In terms of fantasy earnings, he is currently a $-8 in 4×4 formats (thank you Alex, for allowing me to use your formulations), and slightly less than a $-8 in 5×5 formats because of his strikeouts (yes, even his measley 16 strikeouts count for something).
A quick look at his O-swing% and Swinging Strike percentages tell the story – he isn’t fooling anyone. When he comes to the strike zone, he is getting hit hard.
Really, this was a no-brainer almost a month ago – if you have held on to Vazquez this long, your pitching staff is in serious trouble.
whoever the retard is who said the Yanks got the better deal, Bravos got a top prospect and without Dunn they wouldn’t have Uggla, who should turn into a better player. So they really traded a crappy pitcher for a top pitching prospect and a top 5 2B.
As for Vasquez, yea, he’s done. I honestly I feel bad for the Marlins farm director. They do such a good job at stocking up the Fish but then their crappy owner screws them over. I see them moving into a new stadium being about like the Pirates. Still no more money being put into the team.
NoU
By Uggla “turn into a better player” I meant he probably won’t hit .206 or whatever he’s hitting for the rest of the year.