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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

9:45
Travis Sawchik:

How many pound have you added since we last spoke?

0-2 (35.3% | 65 votes)
 
2-4 (38.0% | 70 votes)
 
4-6 (5.9% | 11 votes)
 
6+ (7.0% | 13 votes)
 
Lost weight! (13.5% | 25 votes)
 

Total Votes: 184
9:51
Travis Sawchik:

The Most Important Question Ohtani is Asking Teams to Answer is…

An evaluation of Shohei?s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter (17.1% | 43 votes)
 
Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities (26.6% | 67 votes)
 
Re: Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities (0% | 0 votes)
 
Resources for Shohei?s cultural assimilation (3.1% | 8 votes)
 
A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization (31.8% | 80 votes)
 
Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play (19.1% | 48 votes)
 
Relevant marketplace characteristics (1.9% | 5 votes)
 

Total Votes: 251
12:03
Travis Sawchik: Greetings!

12:03
Travis Sawchik: I put on about three pounds in six days

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Not in the best shape of my life

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Now let’s talk about Ohtani …

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When Will the Phillies Spend?

Few teams could add Giancarlo Stanton as easily as the Phillies. (Photo: Corn Farmer)

Last week at the site, Craig Edwards attempted to estimate each club’s free-agent spending power for the offseason. The task is a difficult one. Because major-league clubs aren’t tax-funded public institutions, one can’t simply file a Freedom of Information Act request to view each team’s finances. It’s necessary, therefore, to use a club’s past payroll figures as a guide to the future.

One of the most interesting results from Edwards’ exercise concerns the Phillies. By Edwards’ methodology, Philadelphia has about $70 million available to spend this offseason, trailing only the rebuilding Tigers in that regard. They might even have more potential spending power than that: despite residing in one of the largest markets in the country, the Phillies have only an estimated $37 million in projected salary after arbitration.

The Phillies, like a host of teams, have been connected to Giancarlo Stanton this offseason. That makes some sense, as they could easily take on Stanton’s contract. The Phillies could add Stanton and still have another $40-plus million to add additional help and try and accelerate their return to competitiveness.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Greetings, folks

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Please let me know one thing you are thankful for before submitting your next question! Tis the season

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Let

12:03
Travis Sawchik: ‘s get started …

12:04
dominik: regarding context neutral: would you like to go fully context neutral and use xWOBA for WAR (and possibly also awards)? I can somehow understand james argument, if you consider other luck based factors on award votings (BABIP and HR/FB …) why not go fully context dependent and use leveraged stats? you would need to normalize for team strength but that shouldn’t be hard to do.

12:05
Travis Sawchik: I think award voting and player skill are two different things

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Giancarlo Stanton Named NL MVP

Giancarlo Stanton is your 2017 NL MVP. Barely.

The Marlins outfielder edged out Cincinnati’s Joey Votto by two points (two!), for a final total of 302 to 300. Votto and Stanton each received 10 first-place votes. The latter, however, received 10 second-place votes; the former, just nine. The individual ballots are here.

According to the BBWAA, there have been only two closer NL MVP races than the 2017 edition: in 1979, when Keith Hernandez and Willie Stargell tied and, in 1944, when Cardinals shortstop Marty Marion topped Cubs outfielder Bill Nicholson by a single point.

You could pick either Votto and Stanton and not err egregiously. Paul Goldschmidt was the third NL MVP finalist. Despite producing an excellent season in his own right, he was a cut below by most measures.

The voters selected Stanton. They recognized a fine player, the preeminent home-run artist in the year of the home run. If I had a vote (I did not), I would have placed Votto on the No. 1 line.

Stanton led the majors in home runs (59). If RBIs are your thing, he led the majors there, too (132). He closed off his stance and made real gains in contact and zone discipline. He was more than just a slugger.

Also in Stanton’s favor is the level of his opponents. He faced a slightly higher quality of competition according to Baseball Prospectus’ Quality of Pitchers Faced metric, holding a 107 to 103 edge.

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Corey Kluber Rides Historic Pitch to Second Cy Young Award

What’s so remarkable about Corey Kluber’s second Cy Young Award, the receipt of which was announced Wednesday evening, is he won it despite missing a month of the season. At the All-Star break, it looked like Sale in a runaway, but Kluber found another level and produced one of the great Cy Young comebacks of all-time. That’s how dominant he was from the point at which he returned in June through the end of September following a trip to the DL with a back strain.

How good was Kluber?

Starting with that appearance against Oakland on June 1, Kluber struck out 224 batters (!). That’s 224 strikeouts in two-thirds of a season. That’s 224 strikeouts against 619 batters faced, good for an astounding 36.2% rate. He walked only 3.7% of those same batters.

The difference between Kluber’s strikeout and walk rate (K-BB%) from June to September was 32.5 points. To put that mark in context, consider: among all pitchers, only elite bullpen arms recorded Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen and Chad Green better marks for the season. (It should be noted that Chris Sale led MLB starters over the whole season with a 31.1-point differential. Kluber finished second to Sale among starters, with a 29.5-point mark.)

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The Eric Hosmer Dilemma

In light both of the ask and the inconsistent performance, the prospect of signing Eric Hosmer should foster trepidation among major-league clubs — a point made by this author last week when expressing a preference for Carlos Santana among this year’s free-agent first basemen.

Scott Boras is reportedly seeking $200 million spread over eight years for a player who, in seven major-league seasons, has produced full-season WAR totals of 0.0 (2014), -0.1 (2016), and -1.7 (2012).

While Hosmer is just entering his age-28 season, while he looks the part, his glove consistently rates below average according to the metrics at first base, and the real concern is whether the bat will consistently play at a star level.

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Is Ohtani Really More Valuable in the AL?

Today, I bring you more Shohei Ohtani content to satisfy your cravings.

Assuming the final hurdles are cleared and Ohtani makes his way to a major-league team this winter, he’ll almost certainly become the most fascinating story of the offseason — and then the regular season, too. Because Ohtani’s talent and situation are unique, there are all sorts of ancillary storylines attached to whatever decision he makes.

On Monday, when examining what might be the best landing spot for Ohtani and Major League Baseball, I ruled out the National League because the lack of the DH would limit the total number of plate appearances Ohtani receives. Of course, an NL team could promise Ohtani a corner-outfield or first-base job, but the DH seems like a more natural, less risky, pathway to maximize his dual talents.

But there’s a case to be made that Ohtani’s bat is actually more valuable in the NL even if he’s just limited to the plate appearances he’d earn as a starting pitcher and (between starts) pinch-hitter. It’s possible that his offensive production, relative to the average pitcher, might be more valuable than his production over the average DH performance.

Let’s investigate, shall we?

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J.D. Martinez Is Worth the Price

J.D. Martinez is the one, true elite bat on the market this winter. (Photo: Keith Allison)

Pitching and defense didn’t win in 2017. Offense did. Specifically, launching juiced balls into the air did.

That’s an oversimplification, of course. Charlie Morton played a significant role in winning two Game 7s. Justin Verlander was generally great. Pitching and defense were certainly part of it. But an examination of wRC+ and FanGraphs’ Offensive Runs Above Average (Off) statistic for 2017 playoff teams reveals a noteworthy finding.

Of the three clubs that won 100 games in the regular season and the two clubs that met in the World Series, each finished in the top four by FanGraphs’ Off and wRC+. The historically good Astros offense led the club to a World Series title.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:04
Travis Sawchik: Greetings and salutations

12:04
Travis Sawchik: And happy Ohtani season

12:04
Hank: What kind of moves to you expect Anthopoulos to make in his first offseason with the Braves?

12:05
Travis Sawchik: AA has a reputation as an aggressive trader but I wonder if he will be a little more conservative early on as he does some inventory and gets acquainted with the Braves …. So maybe some smaller-type transactions

12:05
Creg: Where do you put the odds that Otani signs with an NL team? It seems like the teams, Otani’s agent and probably he himself will recognize that it’s better if he just DHs.

12:06
Travis Sawchik: I’d be surprised if he lands in the NL … unless he really wants to play in the field on days he’s not pitching. But i think he’s going to land with an AL club

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Where Ohtani Would Make the Most Impact

“The best for the group comes when everyone in the group does what’s best for himself and the group.”

–American mathematician John Nash

Shohei Ohtani is fascinating for a number of reasons. We start with the dual talent, of course.

While injury limited him to just five starts as a pitcher in 2017, he struck out 29 and allowed only 13 hits in 25.1 innings — as a 22-year-old. He produced a .332/.403/.540 slash line in 230 plate appearances. In 2016, he went 10-4 with a 1.86 ERA over 20 starts in the NPB. He struck out 174 and walked 45 in 140 innings. He also OPS’d 1.004 with 22 home runs in 323 at-bats in 104 games.

He was named the league’s best pitcher and best DH.

While Clay Davenport’s deadly accurate statistical translations don’t appear to be available for 2017 NPB play, Davenport’s 2016 translations are available to the public.

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