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A Revolution Is Only as Good as Its Process

Long-time UCLA baseball coach Gary Adams was nearing the end of his coaching tenure when he made his way to The Ball Yard in 2003 to talk hitting philosophy. The Ball Yard is a spartan hitting facility, containing two batting cages, located in a nondescript building in a business park in Chatsworth, Calif. There, Doug Latta and Craig Wallenbrock, a former major-league scout, worked as private hitting instructors. There was a UCLA connection: Bruins star Chase Utley was a client of Wallenbrock, and other UCLA players had worked at the facility.

Whatever you want to call the effort in the majors to hit balls less often on the ground, much of the grassroots movement — many of the alternatives to traditional and professional hitting philosophy — began at places like The Ball Yard, the hitting equivalent to garage start-ups.

At some point, Adams and Latta engaged in a separate conversation as they walked to exit the facility. After Adams listened to their philosophies on the swing, after hearing Latta’s antipathy for a ground-ball-oriented approach, Adams asked Latta a hypothetical question: what kind of swing would he have recommended Dave Roberts to adopt? Robert was a former UCLA standout under Adams, one who became a useful major-league player, mostly known for his speed. He is, of course, now the manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Roberts slashed .266/.342/.366 over parts of 10 major-league seasons.

Even many proponents of the #NoGroundballs club would look at Roberts as an exception, a player who should put the ball on the ground to ensure that his speed is a factor as often as possible. As a layman of hitting mechanics, that concept makes sense to this author.

“I think that’s what Dave did. He made it to the big leagues,” Latta said of hitting ground balls. “But I think Dave Roberts could have had an outstanding career. He had incredible makeup. He’s a phenomenal manager because of his makeup and the way he approached the game. Good outfielder. But what happens if he suddenly hits like a Justin Turner? (Turner is a Latta client.) He could have been one of the great lead-off men of his generation.”

Would Dave Roberts have been a star with a different swing? (Photo: Todd)

Had he worked with Roberts, Latta would have recommended dramatic swing changes. Perhaps today’s Roberts comp is Billy Hamilton: a player with incredible speed but whose swing and whose ability to hit have limited his overall value and the utility of his speed. Hamilton is a player who has probably been coached to hit the ball on the ground since he began playing baseball. With changes to his approach and swing, Latta thinks, the offensively challenged Hamilton could get to some untapped potential. (Hamilton has a 60 wRC+ for the season and 70 for his career.)

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Gary Sanchez Isn’t a Superstar Yet and That’s Fine

Brilliance in small samples can be intoxicating. Case in point: in a poll conducted by ESPN this preseason, 41% of respondents predicted Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez would slug between 31-40 homers this year. Another 10% called for more than 40. For reference, of the 38 hitters who reached the 30-homer threshold in 2016, only one of them (Evan Gattis) did work as a catcher.

On the one hand, it’s not difficult to understand the reason for that sort of enthusiasm. Sanchez was excellent in 200-plus plate appearances for the Yankees last year, hitting 20 homers and recording just over three wins in a wonderful late-season burst. On the other hand, expecting a player to continue that kind of pace — especially a young catcher with limited exposure to major-league pitching — is probably unreasonable.

I attempted to warn everyone about the pitfalls of such expectations back in March. From that post:

In the fantasy baseball world, only Buster Posey is being drafted earlier at catcher. Generally conservative projection systems forecast that Sanchez will be a star this season. ZiPS pegs Sanchez for 27 homers, a 112 wRC+, and a 3.4 WAR season. PECOTA’s 70th percentile outlook has Sanchez recording 33 homers, a .504 slugging mark, and 4.8 wins. And the Fans’ average crowdsourced projection for Sanchez is a .274/.344/.488 slash line and 5.4 WAR season. The Fans believe, in other words, that Sanchez and Bryce Harper are going to produce similar value this season. …

Even in Yankee Stadium II, Sanchez wasn’t a good bet to repeat his 40% home-run rate on fly balls (HR/FB). In fact, his current mark, just shy of 27%, is still well above average. And while Sanchez could go on to produce a monster second half, the first third of the 2017 season has been a reminder not to draw too much from a small sample.

It’s not Gary Sanchez’s fault he was so good last year. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

It’s not that Sanchez has been a poor player to date; quite the contrary, in fact. He’s been an above-average hitter (121 wRC+) at a position where we rarely see such offensive production. He’s having a really good year so far. He’s just not the superstar many expected him to be in his first full season. He’s still one of the more valuable young players in the game, and we know all about his potential. But his .256/.343/.471 slash line better resembles a career minor-league line (.275/.339/.461) produced over nearly 2,500 at-bats than his briefer showing last season.

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Felipe Rivero Is Nearing the Elite

The Pirates’ trade of Proven Closer Mark Melancon prior to last season’s trade deadline was met with much hostility at the confluence of the Allegheny, Monongahela, and Ohio Rivers. The trade was seen in the public, and some corners of the clubhouse, as a white flag being raised, the Jolly Roger lowered at PNC Park. The Pirates remained on the fringe of the postseason picture at the time of the deal. Melancon had been a fixture of the 2013-15 playoff teams.

But those who aren’t focused solely on the Stanley Cup finals are no longer complaining in Pittsburgh. In return for Melancon, the Pirates acquired pitching prospect Taylor Hearn and a headline piece in Felipe Rivero, who is becoming one of the game’s elite left-handed relief pitchers.

We know all about the talents of Zach Britton, Aroldis Chapman, Andrew Miller, the sport’s most dominant left-handed relievers. But Rivero is on the brink of joining their company. And if you’re interested in who’s occupying the ninth inning for major-league clubs — say, fantasy baseball purposes — Rivero might soon be closing games for the Pirates due to Tony Watson’s struggles.

Oh, how the Washington Nationals would like to have Rivero and his four-plus seasons of control back. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, the Rivero deal serves both as a model and warning in how to operate at the trade deadline, where overpaying is almost always a mistake and heeding the lessons of the Stanford marshmallow experiment is typically wise.

To be fair, the Nationals didn’t think they were trading this kind of arm away for 60-plus days of control over Melancon. Like many pitchers before him — A.J. Burnett, Jason Grilli, Francisco Liriano, Ivan Nova, Edinson Volquez, and, yes, Melancon himself — Rivero has made significant improvements since being traded to Pittsburgh.

Let me offer a quick a synopsis on the Rivero story: the lefty has refined his command since arriving in Pittsburgh, he’s added velocity — hitting 102 mph this season — and, in addition to a quality slider, he now boasts an elite changeup.

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A Glove Story in Minnesota

The Minnesota Twins remain among the season’s early surprises, as they still reside in first place in an AL Central Division that includes a heavy division favorite and reigning AL champion in the Cleveland Indians.

There are a number of reasons the Twins are where they are atop the division. They have improved offensively from a 95 wRC+ club a year ago, to a 101 mark this season. Miguel Sano is the loudest reason for that — literally, as a loquacious presence in the clubhouse and also as owner of the most violent contact in the league. A more selective Sano is mashing, and the public seems to recognize this: the 24-year-old leads All-Star balloting at third base. In a world with a lame Mike Trout, Sano is in the MVP discussion, as well. Max Kepler and Robbie Grossman are raking, and while Joe Mauer remains a shell of what he was, he has posted a .359 on-base mark.

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Joe Kelly and Baseball in Another Dimension

Between Scooter Gennett’s four-homer game and a Max Scherzer start during which the right-hander racked up 11 strikeouts through his first four innings (thanks, in part, to a new toy), the country might have missed another remarkable feat on a major-league playing surface last night — namely, Boston reliever Joe Kelly hitting 104 mph in a plate appearance against Aaron Judge.

Judge, to his credit, fouled the pitch off.

But the important information is conveyed by this portion of the screen:

Yes, there have been issues with Statcast’s velocity readings this year. The final pitch speed, tracked by the Doppler radar component of Statcast, was later revised to 102.2 mph. Still, it now stands as the fastest thrown by a major-league pitcher this season, and it was the fastest of Kelly’s career, according to PITCHf/x and Statcast data.

It’s also the second time Kelly has hit 102.2 mph this season: he also reached that mark against Anthony Rizzo on April 28, according to Statcast.

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Umpires Are Having Some Trouble with Aaron Judge

The absence of Mike Trout, however unfortunate, has the possible effect of opening up the field for the American League’s MVP award. It’s also possible we’ll see a position player other than Trout lead the league in wins above replacement for the first time since 2011, when Jacoby Ellsbury posted a 9.4-win season. Trout still leads the league this season (3.3). Given that he could miss two months of time to injury, however, he could be hard pressed to finish ahead of his peers for a sixth consecutive campaign.

So that brings us to the No. 2 player on the American League leaderboard, Aaron Judge.

I received some questions about MVP odds during my Monday chat and Judge’s name came up. As impressive as Judge has been this season, including a 510-foot batting practice shot in Toronto…

… I sense there are questions, concerns about the league’s ability to punch back when it accumulates more scouting material against an inexperienced hitter who possesses both a long swing and unusual baseball body. Judge doesn’t yet have the same type of exposure to major-league pitching and defenses that other MVP candidates have. When pitchers began to refine their approach against him, will Judge be able to counter punch?

There’s already some evidence that a considerable slow down is imminent: Judge’s strikeout rate has been inching up.

While Judge deserves credit for his offseason work — including a swing adjustment that has resulted in dramatically improved bat-to-ball skills and allowed his raw power to translate into games — the forecasts call for merely a good player, not a great one. Our Depth Chart projections, which are a combination of Steamer and ZiPS with curated playing-time estimates, have Judge slashing .253/.338/.500 for the rest of the season, with 22 more homers and 2.2 wins.

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Andrew McCutchen Has a Plan, Is Running Out of Time

Andrew McCutchen’s time as a Pirate was always likely to end in one of two ways: either by way of trade or departure as a free agent. Several years ago, a significant portion of the fan base — and perhaps a significant portion of the clubhouse — would have liked to have seen another contract extension for the 2013 NL MVP, but that was always unlikely. The club had little interest in guaranteeing a player entering his 30s a nine-figure contact, and McCutchen seemed uninterested in taking another below-market deal.

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Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

12:01
Travis Sawchik: Welcome to another Monday afternoon chat, thanks for attending

12:01
Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started …

12:02
Colin: What is the analytically inclined fan to think in 2017 when a player is complimented either by his team or the announcers for hitting behind the runner? Every time I see this I just think to myself, “What’s so great about getting out?”

12:02
Travis Sawchik: There is some skill to situational hitting but hitters are best served by launching air balls into the OF

12:03
Travis Sawchik: Announcers often fall into traditional narratives, which is a problem since so many people are watching/listening to broadcasts

12:04
Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Is the Statcast data on lead lengths public? I am dying to know how Lester’s pickoff is going to shorten leads taken on him.

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The Jeff Mathis Factor

PITTSBURGH — To begin this post, I would like to remind the audience of a series of fortunate events detailed back in February, a timeline of transactions that appears to be quite consequential as related to the surprise Diamondbacks and their resurgent ace Zack Greinke.

On Dec. 2, new Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen announced the hiring of Mike Fitzgerald to lead the club’s analytics department, which was to take more prominent and influential place in the organization. It was Fitzgerald who was a primary table-pounder for free-agent-to-be Russell Martin and his presentation skills in the summer of 2012, when Fitzgerald was the No. 2 analytics official in Pittsburgh.

On Dec. 2, the Diamondbacks non-tendered Welington Castillo, the starting catcher who was most responsible for the Diamondbacks’ placing 26th in majors by framing runs saved last season. Castillo ranked 95th in framing runs saved last season, according to Baseball Prospectus.

And on Dec. 2, the Diamondbacks signed Jeff Mathis, the top-rated receiver available on the open market, to a two-year deal. In a part-time role with Miami, Mathis ranked 13th in framing runs last season. To date this season, he ranks eighth.

Dec. 2 was a busy day for the Diamondbacks, and some suspected it might also be an important day for Greinke, from whom the Diamondbacks needed a better season in 2017 to contend in the NL West and to justify his record contract.

Seven months later, Greinke is in the midst of a significant bounce-back season and by some measures — including strikeout rate, K-BB%, and swinging-strike rate — he’s never been more dominant.

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Zack Greinke’s Pitch Mix Now Led by Plurality, Not Majority

PITTSBURGH – That Zack Greinke is reinventing himself, that he remains effective even as his velocity leaves him, that he has bounced back while pitching in front of a better defensive cast this season — none of it should represent one of the greater shocks of the 2017 season. After all, this is an elite-level athlete with excellent command, one who owns a five-pitch mix and a feel for the craft. He is also a diligent student of the game.

Before I caught up with Greinke this week in Pittsburgh, he was seated at a card table before a laptop, a sort of make-shift video and data center hastily constructed each series in the center of the opposing clubhouse in PNC Park, a common setup for the road traveling party. Greinke was several days away from his Thursday start in Miami, but he was one of the players seemingly most interested in studying upcoming opponents. Greinke embraces data and — shameless plug alert — is a reader of FanGraphs.

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