Travis Sawchik FanGraphs Chat

Travis Sawchik: Welcome to another Monday afternoon chat, thanks for attending

Travis Sawchik: Let’s get started …

Colin: What is the analytically inclined fan to think in 2017 when a player is complimented either by his team or the announcers for hitting behind the runner? Every time I see this I just think to myself, “What’s so great about getting out?”

Travis Sawchik: There is some skill to situational hitting but hitters are best served by launching air balls into the OF

Travis Sawchik: Announcers often fall into traditional narratives, which is a problem since so many people are watching/listening to broadcasts

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Is the Statcast data on lead lengths public? I am dying to know how Lester’s pickoff is going to shorten leads taken on him.

Travis Sawchik: I don’t believe the common man has access to that data

Matt: Is Jimmy Nelson a real pitcher now? Looking at peripherals, not seeing much that explains uptick in K%. Pitch mix change?

Guest: Any thoughts on Jimmy Nelson? Is he just on a good streak, or has he made a change? His last two starts have been pretty dominant.

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10547&position=P&type=8&…

Travis Sawchik: 45% O-Swing in his last start!

Travis Sawchik: I’ve heard folks raving about his slider. Keep an eye on him

CamdenWarehouse: Is C. Trent one of the coolest cats in the baseball beat world? He seems like it.

Travis Sawchik: Yes. He’s much cooler than me and I could never hope to procure a beard akin to C. Trent’s

Matt: Thames’ slump started just a few games before he sat out for a few in the beginning of May. Can we use that to justify the slump, or no? His eye is still very good, but hits don’t seem to be coming. Seriously deflated BABIP in May.

Travis Sawchik: I don’t think so. He’s been expanding his zone a little more in recent weeks, but he wasn’t going to be Babe Ruth for a full season. He’ll be fine

STiVo: What odds would you lay on Correa as AL MVP this year?

Travis Sawchik: With Trout’s injury they go from single digits to double digits…He’s been on a tear, plays for a winner, and is an elite talent. I will say 18%

Guest: Cutch last ten games: .394/.500/.727. Significant? Or just a hot streak?

Travis Sawchik: I’m going to be taking a look at this for tomorrow. Stay tuned!

Andy: Odds for Judge to win AL MVP?

Travis Sawchik: He’s second in the AL in fWAR (3.0) behind Trout who is going to miss a couple months ..

Travis Sawchik: I still suspect Judge is due for some regression, but he’s in conversation. 15%

JT: Any Underrated 3rd basemen available besides Frazier ?

Travis Sawchik: Adrian Beltre is off the DL

D.M.: What would the Astros prospect cost likely be to snag Gerit Cole via trade?

Travis Sawchik: I’m guessing ask would start with Kyle Tucker and need at least two outer significant prospects

CamdenWarehouse: Oh man, Trout goes down and all of sudden we have to talk about MVP candidates in the AL? It’s June guys…

Travis Sawchik: Yeah, it’s early

Natitude Adjuster: Ryan Zimmerman’s ZiPS (ROS) has increased his OPS projection .122 over pre-season projection. Wow.

Travis Sawchik: Ryan Zimmerman just continue to rake. He claims he is not an air-ball revolution guy, but the launch angle is up, and Daniel Murphy is nearby

Nate: If the Tigers are sellers next month, who do you see getting traded first after J.D.?

Travis Sawchik: Kinsler has some value and a modest contract. Maybe Victor if Tigers take on some cash?

Alex: I know you don’t get a ton of prospect question but since you are still pretty plugged into the Pirates. Do we see Austin Meadows in a week or too? If so when Marte comes back how do they rotate him, Cutch, Polanco, and Marte?

Travis Sawchik: Meadows has been raking lately and the Pirates have only two outfielders (John Jaso has been a regular fixture in RF) so there would seem to be a match for need and opportunity

Travis Sawchik: I think Meadows has been playing some left. If the club could, say, move McCutchen that would clear up the short-term picture

Andy: So you have Correa 18%, Judge 15%…are those the two highest? Or do you still think Trout would win even though he misses two months

Travis Sawchik: Trout is so good he could probably contend have played only four months of the season. He could still be a 6-7 WAR guy.

Dres: Any news on outfield shifts? I heard the Astros have been using one. I guess all teams make slight shift adjustments out there, but have any teams been playing an OFer in the gap and leaving the line waaaay open?

Travis Sawchik: I wrote about the Astros earlier this year

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-have-an-outfield-shift/

Travis Sawchik: They have the most dramatic OF alignment I have witnessed, but most teams are doing something a little different from traditional setups

JT: What would the NY Yankee prospect cost likely be to snag Gerit Cole via trade?

Travis Sawchik: I’m just guessing but probably the No. 1 prospect in the system, another top 10 guy in the system and another top 20

Adam: At this point, it seems like there will be a lot of sellers come trade deadline, or before. With how much teams value their prospects these days, which teams will be buying?

Travis Sawchik: To book-end with previous question, it’s going to be interesting to see how patient the Yankees are. The Astros have been willing to move chips (Ken Giles trade)…. Those two teams seem to be connected to (by the general public) to top-end arms

Travis Sawchik: Nationals need a bullpen arm, Diamondbacks, too. Interesting to see how much the Dbacks and Rockies are willing to bet on themselves

Travis Sawchik: Cubs could use an arm or two along with a defensive rebound

JTT: Judge has a 30% K rate and a 400 BABIP. Eventually he has to settle into the 240-250 hitter we all thought he was going to be, right?

Travis Sawchik: This level would be tough to maintain, for sure. But the exit velo should allow him to continue to do well on balls put in play

Travis Sawchik: The strikeouts are inching up …

Travis Sawchik: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=15640&legend=1&statArr=3…

Travis Sawchik: League should have some more success in their second, third go-arounds against him

Dres: What up T! Do teams celebrate road wins differently than home wins? How about “upsets” (their spot starter vs. an ace)?

Travis Sawchik: Post-game celebrations are generally similar: obnoxiously loud music pumping from stereo

Troutmageddon: What are the upsides of Dinelson lamet and Jordan’s Montgomery? Or are what we seeing now about it

Travis Sawchik: That 12.6% swinging strike rate and 36% O-swing rate make Montgomery pretty intriguing

Travis Sawchik: I need to get a look at Lamet who has missed a to of bats, too

Nicole: Do you see more teams starting their home games at 6:10 on weekdays? The Indians do it and I don’t think it has helped attendance; in fact I think it’s made attendance worse.

Travis Sawchik: As a writer, I love it. But for the 9-5 worker it probably complicates matters in getting to the ballpark … Indians’ attendance ranks just 27th in majors, which is kind of sad, but it is up 36% through 26 home dates compared to last season

Jake: Who do you like more to make the postseason: Rockies or Dbacks?

Travis Sawchik: We, at FG, like them about equally http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

Travis Sawchik: I like the Diamondbacks at full health, a little more

Travis Sawchik: But they are the types of teams, given their position in the standings, that would do well to try to add a win or two prior to the deadline

Cotton: have you seen anything to make you think Julio Teheran or Matt Harvey are close to turning things around ? I thought both were good the start before their last starts this weekend, but both were poor this weekend. I know Harvey may still need some time to fully recover from his surgery last year. Thank you

Chris: What is going on with Julio Teheran? Any hope in righting this ship?

Travis Sawchik: Teheran’s stuff is a tick down (8.4 swing strike%) compared to 10.3% mark … He’s lost velocity but might be pitching too similarly to the guy who had a 93 mph average fastball

Travis Sawchik: I think Harvey needs more time to get feel back after that surgery, if he ever gets it back. His stuff is way off from what it was

Marty McFly: Nelson throwing more CBs recently. Maybe this makes his slider more effective, or it is a new useful pitch. Last 2 games one has been good, other not as effecrice, BUT each time it was a different pitch. http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=10547&position=P&type=6&…

Travis Sawchik: It appears he has two quality breaking pitches, he’s not leaning on four-seamer as much, and no changeup, unusual but maybe effective pitch mix

Jeff Luhnow: Should I be looking at adding someone other than a pitcher before the trade deadline? LF or 1b, perhaps?

Travis Sawchik: In theory, there could be some upgrades in that lineup but it’s a great lineup …I’d be looking for another arm

Dan: Would the Pirates really press on getting Tucker for Cole knowing they have two locked up, talented young OF’ers in Marte and Polanco as well as a third at AAA in Meadows?

Travis Sawchik: Well, I don’t know why Martes isn’t throwing strikes …

Travis Sawchik: But generally I wouldn’t worry about positional depth charts, I’d try to get the best return possible and sort the rest out later

Travis Sawchik: And I’d prefer to build around positional player prospects

Hunky Dory: Are MIL a real contender in a miserable NL Central? Do you think a couple of second-tier pickups (the Clayton Richards and Bud Norrises of the world – maybe even Cozart) give them a reasonable shot at a WC?

Travis Sawchik: We’re giving the Brewers just a 1.6% chance of reaching the NLDS, so I wouldn’t get too heavily on the group. But since the NL is so poor, I could see making a small bet

Travis Sawchik: And, hey, maybe Nelson keeps shoving and Thames gets back to Bonds-like form

Pedro De Pacas: If you had to chose one 3B for offensive production for the ROS would you take Beltre or The Elder Seager?

Travis Sawchik: From a pure talent standpoint I like Beltre, but I worry about the injury and age

Cody: How long will the Brewers hold off the Cubs in the division?

Travis Sawchik: 2-3 weeks

Travis Shaw: Travis shaw has been a fixture in the brewers lineup while the red sox still have noting to show for the trade.. Looking back its probably a poor trade considering what they have a 3B any thoughts?

Travis Sawchik: Brewers front office has done a nice job finding value

Troutmageddon: What’s up with Xander completely changing as a hitter every year?

Travis Sawchik: Pretty strange, but good, three-year run. Biggest thing to me is his GB/FB is at 2.02 this year and 2.05 in 2015, and it was at 1.3 last year. I’d like to see him get more balls in the air

Bob: Can we talk about jimmy Nelson for a sec? Is this legit? Or does he soon resort back to his old days?

Travis Sawchik: It does look like he’s made some gains in missing bats and not issuing walks…always good! Hard for any pitcher to keep this level of run-prevention up, but he appears to have made real growth

Mike Milligan: Thanks for the chat Travis! Sounds like you expect the Dodgers to pretty much stand pat ?

Travis Sawchik: Dodgers are in a great position where they don’t have screaming need that I’m aware of

Hunky Dory: Re: Judge – he’s getting screwed by low called strikes. Umpires are calling strikes that are below his kneecaps on account of his height. Interesting topic for research!

Travis Sawchik: Hmmmm. I might take a look at this. Thanks!

Jack W: Ay thoughts on Jonathan Lucroy’s mediocre start?

Travis Sawchik: As cool as his bat has been, he ranks last in Baseball Prospectus’s framing metrics, continuing a three-year decline with the glove. Ben Lindbergh wrote a good deep-dive subject at The Ringer.

Dylan: How much would this poor season effect Machado’s free agency if he was a free agent after the season?

Travis Sawchik: Meh. A little, maybe. I don’t think there are maybe doubters of his talent. But maybe he’s clear No. 2 in the class after Harper

Miguel Sano: Are you selling high on me?

Travis Sawchik: The .465 BABIP is crazy high, but I still think you’re a .900 OPS, 35-homer guy this season, so that’s pretty solid at 3B

botchatheny: is there a more average, pedestrian team than StL?

Travis Sawchik: In the NL that might be enough to enter the play-off field this October

iamyourlager: Is there an argument to be made that Ryan Schimpf should be swinging more? He’s only swinging, in total, 38% of the time but with a 9.5% swinging strike rate his strikeout percentage should be far from 37%.

Travis Sawchik: He works a ton of deep counts, as you know. Walk rate is also a strength. … But he might be taking too many early-count strikes that he could occasionally ambush

Porcho Villa: Why is Rich Hill still considered a front line starter? The guy had four good starts in 2015 and 110 solid innings in 2016, but did nothing before that. Now he’s 37 and appears to have completely lost his control.

Travis Sawchik: Plenty of risk in the profile, but he was about as effective as any pitcher not named Kershaw. I’d take him as a No. 3 in my rotation , which is about how he’s being paid

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: How good could a GM be if he only relied on publicly available data like Fangraphs?

Travis Sawchik: I can’t say for sure, but I think the best would still be pretty good since there is so much rich information out there. And GM skills way beyond accessing data

ErodCal: Would Cueto be more trade-able as a rental, and is there anyway to trade him with a “put” back to the Giants to make him a rental if he does not opt out? Would MLB allow such an arrangement in a deal?

Travis Sawchik: I have not read every line of the CBA but I don’t think there are “put-backs” but I kind of like the idea

Matt: O/U on Aaron Judge: 40 HRs? 5 WAR?

Travis Sawchik: Over/Over *-with health

Bryan: Should fans be concerned over Harper’s recent slump? Seems the last several years he comes out blazing in the month of April and a bit of May but then goes into a slump.

Travis Sawchik: Not as long as he’s healthy

Pennsy: How long until we see a team in Las Vegas? Now that NHL and NFL are moving it it seems inevitable, but when?

Travis Sawchik: I doubt that’s the MLB’s top location on their relocation/expansions preference list. I do think we’ll see 32 teams in the next decade or two, but I think Montreal might top the list

Travis Sawchik: As for the No. 2? Plenty of ideas

Moltar: Why did the baseball gods curse us with a monday of only 7 games and no day games???

Travis Sawchik: In the age of Twitter and video streaming, baseball should always have a day game

JimBob: Clayton Richard, Tyler Chatwood and Josh Tomlin all have xFIPs under 4.00 and are in top 30. Smoke and mirrors or are these guys better than we think?

Travis Sawchik: Those are typically the guys you want to buy into for fantasy purposes. The OF defense behind Tomlin has been improved

Low: What’s wrong with Rougned Odor? Do you think he can come close to last seasons output assuming he turns things around?

Mike D: Do you see any improvement in Rougned Odor?

Travis Sawchik: Odor has had a weird season. He’s still 23 with a ton of talent and violent swing … I wonder if he developed some bad habits after a hot start, his FB% was way up at one point

AJ: Torn between holding a DL spot between Kendall Graveman and Nate Karns…league allows me plenty of patience, would probably be dropping Marwin to make move 12 team h2h weekly

Travis Sawchik: I’d take the Ks, I’d stash Karns

Pelyo: Is there any data on offense by position? Like, could i find out what league average WRC+ is for shortstops?

Travis Sawchik: Yes, it’s easily searchable under team leaderboards, then filter by league and position

baby bull : the No 2 location for relocation or expansion is 100% not Mexico City. Mexico City realistically isn’t in top 5. Would need a completely different CBA, the air quality alone screams lawsuit.

Travis Sawchik: There will eventually be a MLB team in Mexico, could be a ways away

Anonymous: If you were a new GM, would you build your team around starting pitching or position players?

Travis Sawchik: Position players. See: Cubs and (for the most part) Yankees

Buddy Guy: MLB will have a franchise in Salt Lake City and Durham, North Carolina by 2040. What say you?

Travis Sawchik: I think the Carolinas could support a team, Charlotte is a big banking center and the region supports minor league and college baseball really well

David: Who do you want ROS, Lucroy or Contreras?

Travis Sawchik: Contreras

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Brad Peacock….ummm…who?

Travis Sawchik: Or Peacock could reduce for the Astros’ SP search …

Gavin: Trevor Bauer teasing us or has he figured out how to control the baseball?

Travis Sawchik: He’s interesting in that he’s still relatively young but he’s also logged quite a few ML innings without injury, so I could see a breakthrough for him. I’d like to see him lean more on the curveball. It’s a great pitch

Dave: Last season, the Cubs probably could have traded Schwarber to the Yankees and kept Torres. Given his 2017 performance, if Chicago were to put him on the block today, who’s the best starting pitcher they reasonably expect to get?

Travis Sawchik: Torres and more could possibly land you Gerrit Cole.

#BanTheWave: I’m anxiously awaiting Miguel Sano to put a hole through a third baseman’s chest

Travis Sawchik: Let’s not root for that. But I wouldn’t want to be playing third with Sano batting

marichal: Does Jeff Hoffman stick in the Rockies rotation? He’s been awfully good in his spot starts. What does the rotation look like at the end of the month when Gray returns?

S: Jeff Hoffman, here to stay?

Gyroball: Travis your writing has been one of my favorites on Fangraphs. I’m looking for insight into Jeff Hoffman. Any thoughts on the Rockies pitcher after 3 starts?

Travis Sawchik: He’s been great. His performance will dictate role. Rockies could have sneaky good rotation.

Hunky Dory: When does Josh Hader see a call-up to MIL rotation?

Travis Sawchik: Command looks to need some work

Anon: What kind of scouting goes on in the DSL? Do scouts make the trek down there sometimes or does each team have a crew of scouts there full time?

Travis Sawchik: Each MLB club has a full-time presence there

Steve: As the Rangers fall out of the playoff race, where do you think the trade price ultimately ends up on a Darvish rental? What would it take from the Yankees?

Travis Sawchik: It would be significant. I keep coming back to Torres

DuPu: Could a deep dive on Julio Teheran be in order? His FIP-beating ways are coming home to roost in 2017. 7.45 (!!) FIP vs lefties this year.

Travis Sawchik: Perhaps! It’s been a tough year for Julio.

Jake: What do you think about Nick Castellanos besides his atrocious defense? I feel like he’s close to breaking out but how do you have a 47% hard hit rate, a 9% soft hit rate and only an 84 wRC+? Are the increased ground balls the issue?

Travis Sawchik: #NoGroundballs

Blue Morpho: Do you still get Nick Markakis questions?

Travis Sawchik: I did today

Terry’s Sarape: Do the decisions of the third base coach impact baserunning stats at all?

Travis Sawchik: To some degree, tough to control for that, though

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for the participation or just for being here today, folks

Travis Sawchik: Same time/day next week

Travis Sawchik: Thanks for chatting. Do good, be good.