Gary Sanchez Isn’t a Superstar Yet and That’s Fine

Brilliance in small samples can be intoxicating. Case in point: in a poll conducted by ESPN this preseason, 41% of respondents predicted Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez would slug between 31-40 homers this year. Another 10% called for more than 40. For reference, of the 38 hitters who reached the 30-homer threshold in 2016, only one of them (Evan Gattis) did work as a catcher.

On the one hand, it’s not difficult to understand the reason for that sort of enthusiasm. Sanchez was excellent in 200-plus plate appearances for the Yankees last year, hitting 20 homers and recording just over three wins in a wonderful late-season burst. On the other hand, expecting a player to continue that kind of pace — especially a young catcher with limited exposure to major-league pitching — is probably unreasonable.

I attempted to warn everyone about the pitfalls of such expectations back in March. From that post:

In the fantasy baseball world, only Buster Posey is being drafted earlier at catcher. Generally conservative projection systems forecast that Sanchez will be a star this season. ZiPS pegs Sanchez for 27 homers, a 112 wRC+, and a 3.4 WAR season. PECOTA’s 70th percentile outlook has Sanchez recording 33 homers, a .504 slugging mark, and 4.8 wins. And the Fans’ average crowdsourced projection for Sanchez is a .274/.344/.488 slash line and 5.4 WAR season. The Fans believe, in other words, that Sanchez and Bryce Harper are going to produce similar value this season. …

Even in Yankee Stadium II, Sanchez wasn’t a good bet to repeat his 40% home-run rate on fly balls (HR/FB). In fact, his current mark, just shy of 27%, is still well above average. And while Sanchez could go on to produce a monster second half, the first third of the 2017 season has been a reminder not to draw too much from a small sample.

It’s not Gary Sanchez’s fault he was so good last year. (Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

It’s not that Sanchez has been a poor player to date; quite the contrary, in fact. He’s been an above-average hitter (121 wRC+) at a position where we rarely see such offensive production. He’s having a really good year so far. He’s just not the superstar many expected him to be in his first full season. He’s still one of the more valuable young players in the game, and we know all about his potential. But his .256/.343/.471 slash line better resembles a career minor-league line (.275/.339/.461) produced over nearly 2,500 at-bats than his briefer showing last season.

The exit velocity is still strong (92.7 mph), but his barrel-per-PA rate (5.7%) has become pedestrian.

Sanchez, like all young players, is facing an adjustment period. He’s a threat at the plate and is very much being treated as a threat. The rate of four-seam fastballs he’s seen from 2016 to this season has declined by five percentage points. Pitchers are very aware of his 70-plus-grade power. As of Thursday he was seeing the seventh-lowest frequency of four-seam fastballs in the sport:

Lowest Fastball Rates Among Batters
Name wOBA wRC+ FA% (pfx)
1 Albert Pujols 0.299 90 23.6%
2 Marwin Gonzalez 0.434 180 24.4%
3 Salvador Perez 0.315 94 24.7%
4 Michael Conforto 0.426 171 25.9%
5 Chris Owings 0.337 103 26.3%
6 Rougned Odor 0.257 53 26.3%
7 Gary Sanchez 0.346 117 26.6%
8 Mike Moustakas 0.344 114 26.8%
9 Leury Garcia 0.348 118 26.9%
10 Aaron Hicks 0.424 171 27.7%
11 Brandon Drury 0.326 96 27.7%
12 Matt Joyce 0.295 87 27.8%
13 Joey Gallo 0.348 115 27.9%
14 A.J. Pollock 0.339 104 27.9%
15 Miguel Sano 0.424 169 28.2%
16 Jay Bruce 0.346 118 28.2%
17 Jett Bandy 0.338 105 28.5%
18 Didi Gregorius 0.336 110 28.7%
19 Yunel Escobar 0.322 105 28.7%
20 Jorge Bonifacio 0.363 126 28.8%
(Min: 120 plate appearances)

Pitchers are throwing Sanchez two-seamers at a rate of two percentage points more often, but what he’s really seeing is more movement and spin. The rate at which he has seen sliders is the 29th highest in the game. And it’s not as if he hasn’t damaged sliders in the past, but his isolated-slugging mark against sliders this season is a startling line of triple zeroes.

Sanchez has a whiff-per-swing rate of 46% on breaking pitches, which is “exceptionally high” as noted by Brooks Baseball. It’s becoming more and more a spin world that Sanchez inhabits, and he will have to prove he can make an adjustment.

Small samples are particularly dangerous in the information age. Teams can identify weaknesses earlier and earlier, and attack them earlier and earlier. It’s incumbent upon young hitters to more quickly make adjustments.

So while Sanchez has failed to pick up where he left off — he actually started to cool down in September — this is perhaps also good time to buy on Sanchez. His plate discipline has remained intact. He’s actually cut his out-of-zone swings and swinging-strike rate. His pair of two-homer games over the past week-plus is a reminder of the power he possesses. His productivity has slowly been on the rise. He would do well to use the opposite field (10% rate this season) as much as he did a year ago (15%) with the smallest right field in baseball located in his home ballpark. He’s been the 50th unluckiest hitter this season, according to Baseball Savant (among those with at least 75 at-bats), so there’s probably room for positive regression, too.

The raw power is still very, very real. He is still one of the more valuable young assets in the game. He is still an important building block for the next Yankees dynasty. But expecting a full dominant season from Sanchez in his first full major-league season, after the opposition has had an offseason and spring to examine him in this information age, was also a risky bet. It was always asking a lot.

While Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, Francisco Lindor and Manny Machado have made breaking into the big leagues seem relatively easy, with the quality of pitching and scouting it has never been more difficult.





A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

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cartermember
6 years ago

No mention of him missing nearly half of the season so far? He started off super cold, and since coming off the DL has looked like the same guy he was last year. He is still homering 1 in every 15 at bats. He might not hit 40, but if this is who he is, he is still either the 1 or 2 catcher in the entire game offensively.

tekneticc
6 years ago
Reply to  carter

Yea, not sure why the injury was ignored in this piece. He was on a ~35HR pace just last week.

Cool Lester Smoothmember
6 years ago
Reply to  carter

Yeah, he’s hit .277/.371/.505, good for a 138 wRC+, since coming off the DL.

He’s doing fine.

The Ghost of Stephen Drews Bat
6 years ago
Reply to  carter

Rookies getting off to hot starts is great but places unfair expectations by casual fans. I know fans who follow the sabermetrics world understand extremely hot starts by rookies is unsustainable. It’s almost an instinct of ours’ to anticipate regression.

But for casual fans, hot starts translates to expect continuous play. My only proof of this was how Yankees fans, on the various Yankees forums I browse, started to call out Sanchez and Judge when they dipped in production. Like they expected Judge to continue hitting like Ruth after his amazing April, and they expected Sanchez to continue his god-tier home run production from late last season. I can’t even tell you how many comments I’ve seen that Sanchez is “dead-weight” after he posted an 0-4, or when Judge “needs to rest” because he did not his a 450+ ft home run at 115 mph + exit velo. It’s crazy.

The impact of such fans is minimal but a very unique phenomena that occurs. Just something I’d like to share that I’ve witnessed.

TADontAsk
6 years ago

Fans expecting hot starts to sustain indefinitely has been going on forever. Growing up in central NJ, the biggest buzz in baseball card shows after the 1998 season was Shane Spencer’s rookie card. The dealers were arguing that since Spencer hit 10 homeruns in a month’s worth of playing time, he would be challenging the single-season homerun record in 1999. Even as a high school kid I thought “Get a grip, guys.” He finished with 59 in his career.

Robertmember
6 years ago
Reply to  carter

While I think was odd it wasn’t mentioned, every statistic Travis cited was a ratio, so it’s not like he was dinged for not having 15 HRs in June.

Matt1685
6 years ago
Reply to  carter

In my opinion he couldn’t possibly be a “superstar” after having 370 PA in the big leagues. The sample size for this year is even smaller than the one for last year. If brilliance in small samples can be intoxicating, what can be said about being merely “good” in even smaller samples? It’s too early for this article.

My opinion, having watched almost every major league game he’s played, is that while I have no idea if he’ll be a superstar, he’ll be better than he’s been so far this year. His swing is smooth, quick, and powerful. He’s been impatient this year, chasing pitches out of the zone. Last year he showed he could lay off similar pitches. He’s also been opening up too quickly, pulling off the ball and not making good contact. I think he’ll make an adjustment.