Baltimore Bolsters Rotation With Zach Eflin

After a somewhat slow start to this year’s trade deadline, one of the better pitchers available has a new team, with Zach Eflin heading from Tropicana Field to the land of Old Bay and Natty Boh. (That’s Baltimore, for those of you unfamiliar with properly seasoned shellfish and/or nostalgic mass-market budget lager.) Heading back to the Rays from the Orioles are three prospects, right-handed starter Jackson Baumeister, infielder Mac Horvath, and outfielder Matthew Etzel. In his second season with the Rays, Eflin has a 4.09 ERA and 3.65 FIP over 19 starts, good for 1.8 WAR.

Entering the season, the depth of Baltimore’s rotation was something of a concern. Acquiring Corbin Burnes in his walk year did a lot to alleviate the situation, and with the seventh-best ERA and 10th-best WAR in baseball, the rotation hasn’t really hindered the Orioles’ quest to win their first World Series trophy since I was just a wee cynical kindergartener. Still, despite their positive starting pitching rankings, the water has gotten pretty choppy. Both Kyle Bradish and John Means underwent Tommy John surgery in June, and Tyler Wells is out for the season after an internal brace surgery on his UCL in . Further complicating matters is the fact that Cole Irvin, a pleasant surprise in the season’s early going, had a worse June than the Soviet army in 1941. Cade Povich was decidedly mediocre in his debut and was optioned to Triple-A earlier this month, and Chayce McDermott still has command issues to iron out. The team has good reason to expect more from those two in the future, but that future isn’t going arrive this week, and the team needed a bit more certainty in the rotation behind Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez.

Don’t confuse Eflin with Tarik Skubal or Garrett Crochet; he’s not the type of pitcher who is likely to compete for a Cy Young. But a solid pitcher you can actually acquire is more valuable than a terrific one who is unobtainable; the Tigers are, by all reports, asking for the whole galaxy in return for Skubal, and Crochet’s comments indicating that he won’t pitch in the postseason without an extension make an acquisition very risky for a team that doesn’t hand out nine-figure deals. Eflin is the prototypical number two guy, with an ERA and FIP between 3.50 and 4.00 in most seasons. He’ll keep you in reach in most games and doesn’t go through stretches where he gives out more free passes than a failing comedy club. He dealt with a run of injuries a few years ago, but he has been durable in 2023 and 2024, and that’s something the O’s rightly value.

ZiPS projects a 3.62 ERA and 1.1 WAR from Eflin for the rest of the season in 56 innings, and the O’s would be plenty happy with that down the stretch. Nearly as importantly, Eflin is also signed for the 2025 season, and if the Orioles are unable to extend Burnes, having Eflin around could help alleviate any post-Burnes hangover. ZiPS projects a 3.76 ERA and 2.7 WAR from Eflin in 2025, a perfectly reasonable stat line for a player signed to a de facto one-year, $18 million contract.

By shopping at the big box store rather than a fancy-pantsed boutique, the O’s avoided losing any prospects from the pantheon. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice wrote about the O’s prospects last month, ranking Baumeister 13th (40+ FV) and Horvath 25th (40 FV) in the system; Etzel didn’t make the list.

At the time, Eric and Travis had this to say about Baumeister:

Baumeister’s 92-95 mph four-seamer consistently stays above hitters’ bats due to its ability to hold it’s plane and carry through the zone. He doesn’t locate it precisely, but he has feel for elevating it in general, which is fine considering its life. His curveball is a 12-to-6 downer with significant depth that blends well with his elevated four-seamers out of the hand. Baumeister’s slider will show a couple of different shapes. Some have more of a downer shape with slight horizontal tilt, while others have deeper, slurvey-shaped action. There’s also a fading changeup in the mix that he throws with good arm speed, with his best ones showing depth to go along with the horizontal action. Presently, Baumeister heavily relies on hitters expanding their zone against his secondary offerings and he’ll need to improve his consistency as he faces more advanced hitters. This is an exciting arm who is a bit rough around the edges, but he has no. 4 starter upside if he can overcome or improve on his below-average command.

And this to say about Horvath:

His performance at High-A so far in 2024 has been slightly above the league average. Horvath hits out of an open, high-hands setup, and uses an abbreviated leg kick that brings him to square; he really utilizes his legs well throughout his passes. He has extremely quick and powerful hands that generate above-average pull power. Horvath is geared to pull in the extreme, but so far his bat has been quick enough to make this style of hitting work. Horvath’s lofty bat path is geared towards handling pitches in the lower half of the zone but is very vulnerable to anything elevated. We’re in slight disagreement about Horvath’s defense. Eric thought his move to the outfield in college was more or less permanent and for the best. Travis thinks his lateral range and above-average arm strength make the hot corner his best position, while he’s a passable defender at both second base and in right field. Horvath’s hit tool will be too light for everyday consideration, but he’ll be able to fill a bench role if indeed he proves to be a versatile defender.

I asked Eric if he had any updates, and he indicated that he’s slightly less optimistic about Baumeister being a starter, thinks Horvath is playing good enough defense to bump him to a 40+ FV, and still sees Etzel as a run-of-the-mill depth outfielder.

ZiPS doesn’t see any particular reason to disagree. The computer has Baumeister peaking as a 90-95 ERA+ starter down the road, hovering around 1 WAR per season and walking a few too many batters. The only comp among his top 10 or so that I even recognize off-hand is Josias Manzanillo, a journeyman middle reliever from the turn of the century. ZiPS projects a .223/.288/.374 (84 wRC+) line for Horvath if he were to play in the majors in 2025 (he probably won’t), with a peak triple-slash season of .246/.313/.418. That’s admittedly pretty solid for a guy who can credibly play second and third base, as well as the outfield, and the Rays usually have a guy or two like this hanging around, so I won’t be surprised if Horvath gets some time in the majors down the road.

ZiPS is a little more bullish on Etzel than Eric and Travis are, but just barely. The projections actually peg him as a fairly decent spare outfielder, forecasting a .242/.309/.344 line in 2025 and a peak of .247/.318/.362, but ZiPS also has him as a below-average center fielder, which limits his utility since even this relatively sunny outlook doesn’t leave him as a stopgap starter. Etzel’s top ZiPS comp is another Ray, Mallex Smith, who did have a brief stretch of relevance.

Did the Rays cash in big on Eflin? No, but I also think that’s just the reality of the market these days. While teams will still trade elite prospects for players who knock their socks off, they also value even their fringy prospects more than at any time in major league history. As seen here and in the Randy Arozarena trade, ordinary, “proven” players will frequently be acquired for surprisingly light packages. For the Orioles, the benefit of the Eflin acquisition is obvious. They likely picked up the workhorse no. 2 starter they needed, and the team looks better in 2024 and 2025 for it. Plus, they didn’t give up any prospects who are likely to come back and haunt them.