Baseball Hunkers Down

Yesterday, Major League Baseball delayed the start of the regular season. The decision, in retrospect, was an easy one: every major sport is now shut down. It’s a public safety concern in addition to a player safety issue, and the combination made it impossible to wait. Opening Day has been postponed by at least two weeks, and May might be a more realistic start date.

In their understandable haste to delay the season, MLB left some loose ends. Today, they’ve started to address those. Yesterday, players were simply waiting at team facilities, unsure of next steps. Some spring training games were played even after the announcement that the season would be delayed indefinitely. Teams had no games, but there was no official announcement of what their players would do.

Today, the league eliminated the confusion. Spring training facilities league-wide will be shuttered by mutual agreement of the commissioner and the player’s union:

https://t.co/VTXLnDTZsH spring training facilities shut, players allowed to return home means it is going to be quite a while until MLB games are played.

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) March 13, 2020

Shuttered means exactly what you think it does. No one is going to be playing baseball at spring training facilities in the near future. All on-field training is shut down — no intra-squad games, no outfield practice, no simulated games. Pitchers can throw off of mounds, and hitters can still work in indoor cages, but with no games, the baseball season won’t restart seamlessly.

A second spring training looks like the most likely option at this point. It could be short — 10 days or so — but it seems unavoidable that players will need another round of warmups before the season can start. That tracks with what we’ve heard about a further delay — if play isn’t going to start up again until May or potentially later, a second spring training would be necessary in either case, so this seems like a wise decision.

With players and the league no longer ramping up for the season, other dominos fell as well. The league recommended that teams send home players who aren’t on 40-man rosters. Players on the roster can leave as well if they’d prefer. Players on the 40-man will be eligible for travel reimbursement:

Per a memo sent out by the MLBPA, teams are expected to help with/reimburse travel arrangements for players who decide to leave Arizona or Florida. As @MarcCarig said, this applies only for players on 40-man rosters.

— Dennis Lin (@dennistlin) March 13, 2020

If those players decide to stay, as the Yankees already have, teams have them covered. Daily allowances will continue, and teams will help remaining players secure lodging:

1/Further from PA memo: For players who stay in the area of the Spring facility, regular Spring Training allowances will continue. If a player needs to extend a lease of find hotel accommodations, Clubs will be expected to assist in that effort,

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) March 13, 2020

The vast majority of minor leaguers will likely be asked to leave camp, but will find themselves in a difficult situation, as they won’t be reimbursed for travel at a time when traveling is a fraught proposition. With minor leaguers only receiving pay during the season, the economic pressures are mounting for baseball’s working class.

In theory, that pressure could soon extend to major leaguers. The uniform player contract, the basis of every major league contract, has special provisions for a national state of emergency, which was declared today:

With a national state of emergency now declared, the commissioner can now suspend contracts while games aren’t being played, per the uniform players’ contract.

— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) March 13, 2020

At this stage, it looks unlikely that the commissioner’s office is considering so drastic a step. NBA contracts have a similar clause, and teams in that league are continuing to pay players as normal. There have been no rumblings yet of baseball breaking ranks. In fact, the Tigers committed to paying stadium employees for at least the month of April regardless of whether games have played.

Finally, sources close to the league say that at the moment, the plan is to extend the regular season rather than reduce the number of games played:

Sam Kennedy: The current thinking is that MLB games missed before the schedule starts will be added on at the end of these season. Subject to change, but means the regular season would be pushed into October

— Jen McCaffrey (@jcmccaffrey) March 13, 2020

That’s an acceptable solution assuming the league’s current timeline, which only calls for two missed weeks of baseball. The last game of the World Series was played on October 30 this year; by cutting seven off days and moving the postseason back a week, the league could produce a 162-game schedule and still end the playoffs by around November 5, in line with when the playoffs ended earlier this century.

Of course, nothing else about the current plan indicates much confidence in that two week delay. Instead, we’ll likely see a combination of a shorter season and a later start to the playoffs. If games start on May 1 and end on October 4, that leaves 156 days for games. The regular schedule would call for 162 games in 185 days; a 140 or 142-game schedule in 156 days would keep player rest somewhat constant while maximizing the number of games played.

And of course, all of this is extremely prone to change. The spread of COVID-19 has been anything but predictable; baseball’s response thus far has been similarly unsettled. We won’t know more for weeks, but as of now, it looks like the league is preparing for at least a month without baseball.