Beasts From the East, Again: Red Sox vs. Yankees AL Wild Card Preview

For the third time in the past eight seasons, and the sixth time since 1999, one of the game’s most storied rivalries has spilled over into the playoffs. In the matchup of the top two AL Wild Card seeds, the Yankees (94-68) host the Red Sox (89-73) for a best-of-three series at Yankee Stadium. Though they won 11 of their last 12 to erase a five-game lead in the AL East by the Blue Jays, the Yankees lost their season series tiebreaker to Toronto, 8-5, bumping them into the Wild Card round, making their road to return to the World Series that much harder.

The Red Sox have taken the past three postseason matchups between the two clubs, most recently beating the Yankees in the 2021 AL Wild Card Game at Fenway Park and before that the 2018 Division Series. You have to dial back to 2003 for the last time the Yankees defeated the Red Sox in October — with current manager Aaron Boone hitting a walk-off homer off Tim Wakefield to send New York to the World Series.

In terms of more recent and somewhat more relevant history, the Red Sox did win the season series, 9-4, and took seven out of nine at Yankee Stadium. That said, the Yankees won three of the final four games between the two teams.

Rotations

Despite losing half of last year’s postseason rotation — Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt — to Tommy John surgery, the Yankees enter October with a strong set of starters. Fried was just about everything they could have hoped for when they signed him to an eight-year, $218 million deal in December; he tied Rodón for the AL’s second-highest innings total, behind Crochet, while ranking third in FIP and WAR and fourth in ERA. The 31-year-old lefty put up those impressive numbers despite an ugly month-and-a-half stretch in July and the first half of August, when he was lit for a 6.80 ERA; a blister on his left index finger, which cost him one outing after the All-Star break, contributed to that rough string of starts. He’s been lights out since then, with a 1.55 ERA and 2.32 FIP in his last seven turns (46 1/3 innings).

Fried posted a reverse platoon split for the third season in a row. He significantly revamped his approach upon coming to the Yankees, playing down his four-seamer and instead making his cutter his bread-and-butter pitch against righties (he threw it to them 31.9% of the time and held them to a .278 wOBA) and his sinker his go-to against lefties (38.5% of the time, .297 wOBA). His four-seamer nonetheless hummed along with an average velo of 95.8 mph, up two clicks from last year. Though he threw it just 12.4% of the time, the element of surprise helped boost its whiff rate from 17.8% to 25.1%. The cutter, which averaged 93.8 mph, ranked second among all starters in Statcast run value (12). The man can mix his pitches, throwing six different offerings — a curve, sweeper, and changeup are the others — at least 9.8% of the time to batters of both hands. The curve and changeup were his most effective pitches against righties, producing wOBAs of .229 and .227, respectively; the former generated a 39.8% whiff rate against them. Lefties knocked around the cutter but were nearly helpless against the sweeper (.222 wOBA, 43.9% whiff rate) and curve (.172 wOBA, 52.9% whiff rate).

Though his strikeout and walk rates inched in the wrong directions, the 32-year-old Rodón cut his home run rate by over a third (from 1.59 per nine last year) to turn in his best season in pinstripes. He too benefited from a revamped arsenal, adding a sinker against lefties. He threw the pitch, which averaged 91.9 mph (compared to 94.1 mph for the four-seamer) to lefties 31.9% of the time, holding them to a .208 wOBA with a 31.9% whiff rate. Those same-side hitters didn’t do much against either his slider or four-seamer, both of which he threw about as often as the sinker; the former held lefties to a .208 wOBA with a 44.9% whiff rate. Against righties he threw the four-seamer 45.1% of the time, offsetting that with a devastating slider (.195 wOBA, 38.3% whiff rate) and changeup (.221 wOBA, 35.3% whiff rate).

With Luis Gil starting on Sunday and thus only available in this series on short rest, and with rookie Will Warren having been torched for a 9.42 ERA in three starts against the Red Sox, the call for a potential Game 3 will instead go to Schlittler, a 24-year-old righty who didn’t debut until July 9. A seventh-round pick in 2022 out of Northeastern University, Schlittler entered the year as a 45-FV prospect with just 1 2/3 innings above Double-A, but the combination of strong work first at Somerset and then Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre helped him level up to a 50 FV. With injuries to Schmidt, Gil, and Ryan Yarbrough, and poor performances from Marcus Stroman and Carlos Carrasco, a spot opened up for Schlittler in the rotation during the summer, and he more than held his own. Occasionally grazing 100 mph with his four-seamer and averaging a crisp 98.0 mph, the pitch held hitters to a .273 wOBA with a 27.7% whiff rate. Against righties he offset that with a very effective cutter (.192 wOBA, 26.3% whiff rate) and a less effective sinker, curve, and sweeper. Lefties managed a .354 wOBA against the cutter but whiffed 28.1% of the time; his curve, however, was a particularly effective secondary pitch (.296 wOBA, 23.6% whiff rate) in these matchups.

Acquired from the White Sox in a five-player blockbuster last December, the 26-year-old Crochet was the true ace the Red Sox needed him to be. He made his second straight All-Star team and led the majors in innings pitched and strikeouts (255), while shaving a run off last year’s ERA. The likely runner-up to Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young voting, Crochet ranked second only to the Tigers lefty in strikeout rate, xERA, FIP, and WAR, and third in ERA behind Skubal and Hunter Brown.

Crochet offers exceptional velocity for a southpaw; the 96.4-mph average for his four-seamer ranked third in the majors behind only Skubal and Jesús Luzardo, while the 96-mph average for his sinker trailed only Skubal. He dominated lefties while throwing the sinker more often than the four-seamer (36.6% vs. 24.3%), but it was his cutter (23.4%) and sweeper (15.8%) that were even more effective; same-handed hitters managed just a .169 wOBA against the cutter and an .091 wOBA against the sweeper, with whiff rates of nearly 38% on both. Righties made much more hard contact against his four-seamer, slugging .478 with an average exit velo of 93 mph, 8.4 mph higher than lefties. His biggest weapon against them is his sweeper, which he threw 16% of the time and which held them to a .165 wOBA and 41.3% whiff rate.

The drop-off from Crochet to Boston’s two other likely starters is considerable. The 26-year-old Bello ranked ninth in the AL in ERA despite missing comparatively few bats; his strikeout rate ranked 23rd out of 26 AL qualifiers, and his 9.2% strikeout-walk differential was dead last. With a five-pitch mix — sinker, four-seamer, sweeper, cutter, and changeup (used almost exclusively against lefties) — he generated the league’s fourth-highest groundball rate and did a very good job of limiting hard contact, with his average exit velocity, barrel and hard-hit rates all placing in the 60s, percentile-wise.

Lucas Giolito was initially expected to start Game 3 for the Red Sox, but manager Alex Cora announced Monday during his press conference that Giolito is dealing with an elbow issue and will not be on the Wild Card Series roster. Cora has yet to anoint a replacement, but Kyle Harrison and Connelly Early, a pair of 23-year-old lefties, both finished the season in the rotation and are considered to be the top candidates. They would both be on at least five days of rest ahead of Thursday’s if-necessary game, though under the circumstances I wouldn’t expect either to be on a long leash.

Early, a 2023 fifth-round pick out of Virginia, is a 6-foot-3 lefty who gets almost seven feet of extension, helping his fastball — which averaged 94.0 mph in his four turns — play up. Small-sample caveats apply throughout, but batters hit for just a .186 wOBA against it while whiffing on 29.3% of their swings. Back in June, Early was ranked the ninth-best prospect in the Red Sox system with a 45+ FV, and his slider and changeup received 60-FV grades from Eric Longenhagen; in his brief major league experience, Early has used his curve more often than either pitch, and quite effectively. While the slider was knocked around, he threw a sweeper exclusively to lefties and held them to a .000 wOBA and 100% whiff rate with the pitch, albeit on just 10 swings in seven plate appearances.

Harrison, who made 35 starts for the Giants from 2023–25 before being acquired in the Devers trade, entered last season at no. 27 on our Top 100 Prospects list with a 55-FV grade. He scuffled in 24 starts totaling 124 1/3 innings in 2024, posting a 4.56 ERA, a 4.36 FIP, and a 22.2% strikeout rate. In his limited major league time this season, his fastball gained a bit of zip (from 92.4 mph to 93.0 with the Red Sox), and he started throwing a cutter 11% of the time. Last week, David Laurila wrote about Harrison’s adjustments since joining the Red Sox, who optioned him to the minors following the trade before recalling him earlier this month. In three games (two starts) with Boston consisting of 12 innings, Harrison has a 3.00 ERA and a 2.47 FIP. That’s an incredibly small sample size, but if the Red Sox turn to him for Game 3 and this truly is a new and improved version of Harrison, that would be a major boost for Boston.

Bullpens

General manager Brian Cashman focused on upgrading the Yankees bullpen ahead of the July 31 trade deadline, acquiring Bednar, Doval, and Jake Bird, but as with the December trade for Williams, the results were mixed at best. The unit has managed just a 4.74 ERA and 4.07 FIP since August 1, with Bednar emerging as a strong closer and Williams pitching better in a setup role, with a 5.73 ERA and 3.95 FIP before the deadline and a 4.35 ERA and 2.07 FIP after. Still, things have not been pretty of late, with Hill’s 4.15 ERA since August 1 ranking second on the team and every other reliever aside from Bednar with at least 10 innings over the final two months carrying a mark of 4.50 or higher. If you’re looking for the Yankees’ Achilles heel, you’ve found it.

In all likelihood, Hill will be the only lefty reliever the Yankees carry; he held lefties to a .198 wOBA this season, but righties managed a .351 mark against him. Of the righty relievers, Bednar was the most effective against lefties, with a .233 wOBA allowed including his time in Pittsburgh, where he was similarly effective. Weaver was very good against lefties, with a .247 wOBA allowed, with Cruz (.302), Williams (.305), and Leiter (.308) all solid in that context.

(For the table above, I included the stats for relievers with their new teams only, so as to give a better sense of the current bullpen pecking order.)

Bednar converted 10 out of 13 save opportunities for the Yankees, with two of those three blown saves coming in his first four outings following his trade to New York; he has just two earned runs across his last 14 appearances (15 1/3 innings, 1.17 ERA) dating back to August 22. He uses a three-pitch mix against batters of either handedness, with a four-seamer that averaged 97.0 mph, a curve, and a splitter; the two secondaries ate lefties alive while also generating whiff rates above 40% against righties.

Williams’ trademark Airbender changeup wasn’t as effective as in years past, but it still held batters to a .259 wOBA with a 37.3% whiff rate. As Baumann explored in early September, Williams has particularly struggled with men on base (his 55.2% LOB rate is the lowest among qualified relievers), largely because batters have been unusually successful when chasing his pitches with a man on first, a big problem given the increased traffic he’s produced by yielding harder contact. Weaver, who seemingly came out of nowhere to become Boone’s go-to reliever last season, hasn’t been as sharp or as effective, with a spike in home run rate (from 1.07 per nine to 1.39) his major issue. He’s now below Williams on the high-leverage reliever depth chart, generally the seventh-inning guy. It’s worth wondering why Weaver largely abandoned his cutter, which was a useful third pitch. Cruz has supplanted Leiter and Doval as the Yankees’ top middle-innings righty, capable of big strikeouts thanks largely to a nasty splitter that held hitters to a .234 wOBA with a major league-best 56.6% whiff rate.

The Red Sox have a clear advantage here, as their bullpen posted the AL’s lowest ERA (3.41) and home run rate (0.77 per nine), as well as the second-lowest FIP (3.69). Chapman had a lot to do with that dominance. The 37-year-old converted 32 of 34 save chances, posted a career-best ERA, and ran his lowest FIP since 2016. He’s got more pitches in his repertoire than the average closer, and that’s not just because his four-seamer now averages 98.4 mph, which isn’t as daunting as the triple-digit heat he once unleashed consistently; he’s now throwing a sinker about one-third of the time (more to righties than lefties). The sinker averaged 99.4 mph while generating the higher whiff rate of the two pitches (35.5% vs. 28.8%). Meanwhile, his slider and splitter generated whiff rates in the 40s. Mercy.

Generally speaking, righties Weissert, Slaten, and Whitlock are the high-leverage sixth-, seventh-, and eighth-inning guys, respectively, with Matz (a deadline acquisition) and Wilson the top two lefties. Limited to four starts last year by UCL internal brace surgery, Whitlock moved back to full-time bullpen duty and posted a career-best 31.1% strikeout rate; his 31.1% whiff rate on his sinker was the majors’ second highest. Slaten, who emerged as an effective reliever for the Red Sox last year, missed half the season due to shoulder inflammation and has been roughed up for a 5.91 ERA in 10 2/3 innings since returning in late August. He’s got a high-spin four-seamer that averages 96.7 mph with a .208 wOBA and a 26.5% whiff rate, but his curveball went from being a weapon last year to a liability this season, with his strikeout rate on the pitch plummeting from 25.9% to 18.2% while his walk and home run rates rose. Like Whitlock and Chapman, Weissert is also a former Yankee. He averaged just 94 mph with his four-seamer this year, but it held hitters to a .258 wOBA and a 21.8% whiff rate. He mixes that in with a sinker, slider, sweeper, curve and changeup to varying degrees against both righties and lefties.

On the subject of handedness, Matz held lefties to a .253 wOBA, while Wilson limited them to a .261 mark, but the Red Sox righties were almost as effective, or even more so, against lefties, with Whitlock (.236 wOBA), Slaten (.239), and Weissert (.273) better when facing opposite-handed hitters than their Yankees counterparts. Chapman, of course, was absolutely devastating (.174 wOBA) against lefties.

Offenses

The Yankees had the majors’ most potent offense, and it wasn’t just a matter of the short porch in right field, as they actually scored slightly less often (5.01 runs per game) and hit two fewer homers at home than on the road. They’re led by Aaron Judge, who became the tallest batting champion ever this year and won the slash-stat Triple Crown while batting .331/.457/.688 for a 205 wRC+, the fourth-highest of any right-handed hitter in AL/NL history. (Judge’s 2024 and ’22 seasons were even higher.) He also hit 53 home runs which — sheesh — was merely his third-highest total for a single season.

This isn’t a one-man show, however; the Yankees became the 14th team in AL/NL history with at least seven players hitting 20 homers, with center fielder Trent Grisham (34), third baseman Jazz Chisholm Jr. (31), left fielder Cody Bellinger (29), first baseman/catcher Ben Rice (26), designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton (24), and catcher Austin Wells (21) reaching the plateau as well, and shortstop Anthony Volpe (19) just missing out. Five players besides Judge posted a 125 wRC+ or higher, namely Stanton (.273/.350/.594/, 158 wRC+), Rice (.255/.337/.499, 133 wRC+), Grisham (.235/.348/.464, 129 wRC+), Chisholm (.242/.332/.481, 126 wRC+), and Bellinger (.272/.334/.480, 125 wRC+), with Chisholm adding 31 steals, making him one of a record seven players to go 30/30 this season.

Though the Yankees offense showed only a minimal platoon split this season, the lineup does lean heavily left-handed, with Judge, Stanton, and Volpe the only righties from among the aforementioned group. Boone said on Monday that he would start Paul Goldschmidt at first base and bench Rice against the lefty Crochet in Game 1, with Wells getting the nod behind the plate over Rice because of his superior defense and rapport with Fried; the Yankees went with the Fried-Rice battery only once this year, last week in Fried’s final regular-season start. The 38-year-old Goldschmidt absolutely raked against lefties (.336/.411/.570, 169 wRC+) this year but slipped into unplayability versus righties (.247/.289/.329, 74 wRC+); a right knee sprain from mid-August could have something to do with his woes against righties, though he’s had significant platoon splits in recent seasons.

Boone has other levers he can pull as well. He can put Bellinger — who was better against lefties than righties this year and is basically platoon-neutral for his career — in center and use righty Austin Slater in left, and he can put righty Amed Rosario at third base in place of lefty Ryan McMahon, who produced just a 44 wRC+ against lefties between Colorado and New York. With Volpe, who hit an abysmal .211/.271/.392 (83 wRC+), hampered by a partially torn left labrum, he can also swap in José Caballero, who led the majors with 48 steals while batting .236/.338/.348 (97 wRC+) in just 368 plate appearances, at shortstop. Even so, Volpe has been better since getting two cortisone shots to alleviate the pain in his shoulder — .289/.325/.368 for a 96 wRC+ — albeit in a small sample of 40 plate appearances. Boone has indicated that he loves having Caballero available off the bench because of his speed and versatility, and if he doesn’t start, he’s the tactical choice to run for Stanton or Goldschmidt late in the game. Jasson Domínguez, who hit a modest .257/.331/.388 (103 wRC+), has lately fallen out of favor — making just four starts in September — but he stole 23 bases this season and could be used off the bench for a similar purpose.

The Red Sox offense ranked third in the AL in scoring, but they owe some of that to sequencing and their ballpark; they produced just a modest 103 wRC+, tied for fifth in the junior circuit. Notably, Boston is missing 21-year-old phenom Roman Anthony, who hit for a 139 wRC+ in 71 games but has yet to return to baseball activity after straining his oblique in early September. Without him, and with Rafael Devers long gone, the top everyday Red Sox hitter is third baseman Alex Bregman, who hit .273/.360/.462 (125 wRC+). Neither left fielder Jarren Duran (.256/.332/.442, 111 wRC+) nor shortstop Trevor Story (.263/.308/.433, 101 wRC+) had particularly strong years at the plate, though each player produced stretches of excellence. Designated hitter Masataka Yoshida (.266/.307/.388, 88 wRC+) was downright lousy for most of the season, but he produced a 126 wRC+ in September and should feature prominently in Boston’s lineup against righties. Center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela (.249/.295/.413, 92 wRC+) and catcher Carlos Narváez (.241/.306/.419, 97 wRC+) are defensive standouts who can hold their own offensively.

Boston has shored up a couple of weaknesses lately. Nathaniel Lowe has solved the team’s ongoing first base problem, hitting .280/.370/.419 (113 wRC+) since being released by the Nationals and picked up by the Red Sox in mid-August. Right fielder Wilyer Abreu (.247/.319/.469, 110 wRC+) recently returned from a month-long absence due to a right calf strain; he’s the long half of a platoon with righty Rob Refsnyder, who has hit .298/.397/.561 (159 wRC+) against lefties. Romy Gonzalez, who lately has served as the everyday second baseman — another spot that has been an ongoing problem for Boston — hit for a 162 wRC+ against lefties, though just a 95 wRC+ against righties.

Defenses

Aside from their catchers, who ranked third in the majors in our catcher framing metric, FRM (13.4), and fifth in Statcast’s more comprehensive FRV (12), the Yankees were middle-of-the-pack defensively, ranking seventh in the AL in FRV (7), and eighth in DRS (29). Wells drove those standout catcher numbers, ranking fourth in the majors in FRM (10.0), and tying for fourth in FRV (11). Chisholm at second and McMahon at third were the infield’s standouts, both a few runs above average by the metrics. Volpe, whose defense was previously his calling card, was a mixed bag metrically (-5 FRV, 1 DRS), with throwing issues, some uncharacteristic hesitancy on grounders, and some glaring mental lapses. Between Tampa Bay and New York, Caballero was very good at shortstop in a 336-inning sample (4 FRV, 4 DRS).

Bellinger spread his time across the three outfield spots, with the plurality of his innings left field, which in Yankee Stadium generally requires a center field-caliber fly chaser; he had 12 DRS and 9 FRV as an outfielder. As Davy Andrews wrote a few weeks ago, Bellinger had his second-best season of his career, with improved defensive metrics contributing considerably to his overall value. Grisham may be a bit stretched in center these days (-12 DRS, -3 FRV); coming into 2025, who would have thought his bat would provide the better justification for playing him ahead of Domínguez, who was an absolute liability in left (-9 FRV, -7 DRS)? Judge, whose 822 1/3 innings in right field were his most at the position since 2021, was very good (5 FRV, 3 DRS). However, his throwing hasn’t been the same since he strained his right flexor tendon in late July, which confined him to DH-only duty in his first month back; he played 15 games in right in September. He’s less of a problem out there than Stanton, who in just 97 innings was three runs below average by both FRV and DRS and will most likely return to strictly DHing during the postseason.

The Red Sox ranked sixth in the AL in FRV (19), DRS (34), and FRM (1.7). Rafaela is an elite defender who led all major league center fielders in both DRS (22) and FRV (21). Likewise, Abreu captured at least a share of second in both metrics (15 DRS, 8 FRV) despite playing just 847 innings in right field, over 400 fewer than Fernando Tatis Jr. (15 DRS, 10 FRV). Narváez ranked seventh among all catchers in FRV (9), with strong showings in both framing and throwing; he was a more modest 16th in FRM (2.0). Gonzalez was comfortably average-ish in 288 innings at second, not as good as the lighter-hitting David Hamilton but a vast improvement from the early-season Kristian Campbell experiment. Duran had mixed metrics (11 DRS, -1 FRV). Within the lineup’s current configuration, Lowe was subpar at first base in terms of his season’s work with Washington and Boston (-4 FRV, -4 DRS), but the most glaring weakness is Story, who ranked among the bottom five shortstop regulars in both (-7 DRS, -8 FRV).

Overall, the Yankees’ edge in starting pitching and offense, as well as home-field advantage, makes them a heavy favorite according to our game-by-game ZiPS odds. With Giolito previously penciled in for Game 3, the odds favored the Yankees, about 65% to 35%, and those aren’t expected to move much in what will likely amount to a bullpen game. That said, the Red Sox have a considerable advantage when it comes to the two teams’ bullpens. If they can force New York’s starters to work short, this series could flip in Boston’s favor. At this point, that would hardly surprise anyone — especially Yankees fans.