Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 1/13/20
2:00 |
: Hello everyone, and welcome to today’s Astros disciplinary chat.
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2:00 |
: I imagine we’ll talk about that a lot, but let me throw in a few questions from the queue that caught my eye first.
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2:00 |
: Hi Ben! The Rays have made a lot of interesting moves this offseason, and have acquired a number of players they believe can be impact players in 2020. Out of their acquisitions – Yoshitomo Tsutsugo, Jose Martinez, Randy Arozarena, and Hunter Renfroe – who do you believe will make the most impact in 2020? And, do you think any of these players can compile a 3+ WAR in 2020?
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2:01 |
: Hey! Can? Absolutely yes. Any of the four of them could put up 3 WAR, though I think Martinez is least likely to, as he’ll be the skinny end of a platoon.
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2:01 |
: I’m really high on Arozarena, and have been for a while. He’s kind of my prospect white whale as a Cards fan.
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2:01 |
: So I’ll say he’s most likely.
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2:02 |
: Miss you.
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2:02 |
: <3
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2:02 |
: Thoughts on how an Arenado to Cardinals deal could work in terms of prospects/assets involved
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2:02 |
: I’m having a hard time believing the reported offer of Liberatore, CarMart, Hudson & O’Neill for Arenado considering he could opt-out in a couple years. Doesn’t that seem like a crazy steep price without assurances Arenado would stay in STL? And do you think it’s possible they negotiate/restructure and push the opt-out back a year or two?
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2:03 |
: Guess we’re starting on a Cardinals note. I don’t think that rumor is credible – it’s been batted around a lot, but it was basically a Chicago radio host talking off the cuff? It was followed by a trade idea where Arenado came to the Cubs while Kris Bryant played center field.
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2:04 |
: In terms of assets involved, I think they’d try to do something about the opt out, as in Arenado opts in pre-emptively and that sweetens the pot. I don’t think the opt out is particularly likely to come into play given the deal but it would be a really poor risk for any team to trade a lot of assets for someone who might vanish soon.
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2:04 |
: Also, even without the opt out, that package looks high to me. That’s a lot of good, controllable players.
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2:04 |
: I understand why LA has been shut out from Nolan trade talks, but shouldn’t their be other serious suitors? Rangers? Nationals? Braves? Seems like there should be more smoke if nothing else to drive up the price for the Cards. Please don’t point to those ridiculous Cubs scenarios.
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2:06 |
: I think there’s probably more going on than we think. Never say never when it comes to the Rockies front office, but the plan is probably to just call a lot of people? I don’t think the Nats are exactly a fit, because they don’t have deadweight contracts to send back in a reasonable way and seem very concerned about their tax hit.
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2:06 |
: Rangers, Braves – they should be in. Everyone should be in! Arenado is great.
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2:08 |
: Every team should be at least showing the Rockies something. They’re a very non-traditional front office; you never know when they’ll value your 40 FV depth piece as a premium guy.
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2:08 |
: That’s probably hyperbole, but I don’t know, the way they manage their depth chart…
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2:08 |
: I can’t think of a good question right now, but I must be apart of the first ever non-playoff Ben Clemens chat.
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2:08 |
: I guess I can ask what other non-baseball related topics you might enjoy discussing?
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2:09 |
: Welcome! In terms of non-baseball topics, the sky is the limit (other than politics, which meh). Economics? Board games? Card games? Dogs? Please dogs.
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2:09 |
: Living in NY/SF?
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2:09 |
: They cheated their way to a WS title. In a game where the difference between the worst team in the league and the best team in the league is ~30% (by win percentage), the smallest margins tip the scales. Should have stripped them of the title.
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2:11 |
: What does stripping a title do? Meg and I discussed this a bit last week, but I just don’t think it matters. We’ll stlil know who won the World Series in 2017. Are you going to take the banner down in the stadium? I just think it’s meaningless. This penalty is basically salting the earth, and I like the way they punished ownership and management most.
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2:11 |
: I would shy away from coming down on the players too hard, and I’m glad MLB did. I would have preferred more fine and less draft pick loss, but apparently it’s the maximum allowed fine, so there you go.
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2:12 |
: I live in NY!
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2:13 |
: I sadly don’t anymore; my wife and I moved to San Francisco last year. I loved living in New York, though, and the vast majority of my friends still live there. I feel like it gets a bad rap for being noisy and busy; that kind of fades away when you’re actually there, and if you want to it’s just, well, a city where you can get whatever you want.
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2:13 |
: Not cheap, though!
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2:14 |
: But jake, I have a confession. I only took this question to lead into your next one
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2:14 |
: Analysts and FanGraphs writers need nicknames. Why do we get to call Javy Baez “El Mago” but we don’t get to use cool nicknames for you guys? I’m not saying that your normal names aren’t really cool, I mean, they are cool. But nicknames –> more fun!
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2:15 |
: This feels like it could have endless variations, but I’m brainstorming now.
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2:15 |
: My mind went here first:
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2:15 | : |
2:16 |
: A bumbling, bumbling boy is pretty excellent
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2:17 |
: More realistically, though, we don’t have nicknames because we aren’t all that interesting.
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2:17 |
: Javy Baez is el mago because he literally looks magical on the field.
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2:17 |
: Would Dan be ‘Big Models’?
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2:17 |
: Would I be el free agent analysis?
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2:18 |
: I don’t think there’s quite enough stuff going on here that isn’t just ‘here are some words about baseball’ to make for good nicknames
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2:18 |
: What do I have to do to help my local sports team attain public funds?
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2:18 |
: I’m willing to turn a blind eye on the increasing public funds “voted” towards paying for private baseball stadiums. I’m willing to ignore that teams don’t actually care whether I, an average sports fan with average means, can afford to show up to games or not. What’s taking it too far is these player salaries I have the right to know! Why am I just so fucking ungodly stupid?
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2:18 |
: How can I help the owners shrink $/WAR? I hate my job and with some luck could have done what these guys do, no reason they should be making the kind of money they make
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2:18 |
: Hi, average sports fan. First time/long time?
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2:19 |
: Sarcasm aside, man, it’s a tough balance to strike!
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2:19 |
: Like you can say it’s dumb for fans to root for laundry, but the team is going to be there a long time.
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2:19 |
: I think that’s one of the key things that’s kept sports popular all these years as we have backlash against other rich-people-owned enterprises
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2:24 |
: Sorry guys!
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2:24 |
: Had a bit of a technical snafu th ere.
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2:24 |
: I wasn’t linked to the main FG chat account, so I ran out of juice fast.
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2:24 |
: We’re back now though.
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2:25 |
: In any case, I think that being pro-player is a reasonable take. But it’s complicated, because I’m not sure how much I care if Bryce Harper makes 330 million or 270 million
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2:25 |
: But I do super care how much minor leaguers and taxi squad-ers make
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2:25 |
: Were you surprised to see alex wood wind up back in LA? I see how it makes sense for them but I expected / wanted to see a mediocre team to gamble on his upside
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2:25 |
: So, I wrote about this earlier today:
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2:26 |
: I think the Dodgers are the perfect team to try for it. One of the big downsides of Wood is that he might suck
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2:26 |
: And the Dodgers don’t actually care if he sucks.
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2:26 |
: Because they’ll just toss him in the bulk reliever bin.
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2:26 |
: Whereas if you’re the White Sox, and you put all your eggs in the Alex Wood, starter basket and he’s bad.
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2:26 |
: Woof.
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2:27 |
: Think of Alex Wood as either nothing (85% of the time) or great (15% of the time) and you can see why most teams don’t like the shape of that production.
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2:27 |
: congrats on being the chatter while the astros news dropped! how do you feel about MLB being able to effectively sweep the taubman suspension under the rug by bundling it with the rest of it?
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2:28 |
: I do not like that part of it. I’m broadly in favor of the punishments overall, and I think suspending Luhnow for a year really sends a message.
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2:28 |
: But I think they should have separately fined the Astros for the handling of the Taubman thing, and earmarked that money for charity.
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2:29 |
: It’s frustrating that making an example of a franchise for cheating somehow glosses over other bad things they did.
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2:29 |
: For the history books, taking down the banner means something. We also know Lance Armstrong crossed the finish line first… I get that you can’t award a title to a runner up like you could in individual sports, but you could just declare there was “no winner” in 2017. There were no WS winners prior to 1903, and no winner in 1994 and 1904. It’s not like it is mandatory to have a winner every year.
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2:29 |
: Yeah I mean, they could have done that too!
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2:29 |
: But would you rather fine them $1 million or strip the title? I’d do the fine.
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2:29 |
: Fine that they process it at the same time but make a statement regarding his behavior as well. We don’t have the full run of show (run of train-wreck?) yet.
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2:30 |
: Yeah if the official statement comes out about this and it’s clear that they are two things, I’ll revise my judgment. But betting on baseball to be sensitive around handling issues of misogyny/domestic violence/general poor behavior towards women hasn’t been a good bet.
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2:30 |
: Hey, the chat is finally working
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2:31 |
: Yes, as it turns out, I’m a dope, but Meg helped me fix it.
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2:31 |
: I was pretty excited about the mets moves earlier in the offseason, but then the nats went and did a bunch of shrewd signings and i remember that the braves are excellent and the phillies have money and it makes me sad. Do the mets have the most variance of any team in the east? That is, I think they can easily do a 2015, but they could also easily do a 2017. I don’t see as much variance around the outcomes of the other 3.
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2:32 |
: I don’t know what to make of the Mets. They’re built pretty well; if we didn’t know these were the Mets, you could say things like ‘they’ve made decent decisions to prioritize offense over defense given their pitching is so strikeout-heavy’
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2:32 |
: And ‘they do an incredible job developing mid-round picks into serviceable major leaguers’
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2:32 |
: Some of the criticism they come in for is unfair, because people like mocking the Mets.
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2:33 |
: That said, I’m kind of missing the point of your question and talking about how I like the Mets.
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2:33 |
: I don’t think they have particularly more variance than the other teams. The Nats have a lot of old dudes on their team, I’d maybe put them highest in variance.
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2:34 |
: The Mets feel more variable because they’ve been so hot and cold, but I don’t really think that’s predictive.
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2:34 |
: I’m guessing the Red Sox aren’t happy right now. It also seems safe to assume that Alex Cora is going to be taking a year long vacation as well
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2:34 |
: Hopefully he likes fishing. I tend to agree.
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2:34 |
: Will haniger get traded before the season, at the deadline or not at all?
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2:35 |
: I think there’s very little chance he’s traded before the season. He didn’t play much last season, what with the horrifying injury and all.
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2:36 |
: So the Mariners would be selling into a depressed market. Not that you shouldn’t sell into a low market (it can always go lower), but if I’m the Mariners, I want to increase my variance at the moment. One way you can get good again faster is if Haniger recovers and you get a haul for him.
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2:36 |
: Whereas if you trade him now and teams are haircutting you for the risk, it’s not really moving the needle I don’ think.
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2:36 |
: So I’ll say deadline, but only because I think he’ll be good again.
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2:37 |
: Why do so many of the article titles try to be “cute” or funny? Eventually they just come off as tacky.
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2:37 |
: Maybe we’re aiming to be tacky
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2:37 |
: Ever think of that?
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2:38 |
: I can only speak for myself, but I’m terrible at coming up with titles. After writing 1500 words or so, I’m not in the mood for being pithy usually. If you look through my archive, the articles I’ve written with the least editing tend to have the best titles, but I find titling an article to be very difficult.
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2:38 |
: Would someone like Khris Davis be the best defensive shortstop in my slow pitch softball league?
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2:38 |
: Yes.
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2:38 |
: Have you heard any rumors of any other teams that might get caught up in the sign stealing scandal? Thought I heard the Yankees mentioned as one of the progenitors 5 or so years ago
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2:38 |
: Red Sox, Yankees, (very rumored) Brewers
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2:38 |
: Who has higher career WAR, O’Neill, Bader or Arozarena?
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2:39 |
: Oh man. I think O’Neill/Arozarena is a good question.
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2:39 |
: But I think Bader is way ahead of them
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2:40 |
: So I’ll just say Bader. I think the Cardinals have mismanaged him, but he’s so good on defense that he should keep getting everyday starter PT for a long time, and he already has a big leg up.
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2:40 |
: Whats the brewers roumor?
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2:40 |
: Eh, they have some Astros people in their front office, and Yu Darvish and Christian Yelich had a frankly adorable feud on Twitter about Yelich allegedly looking into the outfield while Darvish was on the mound.
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2:40 |
: That one’s thin.
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2:41 |
: Please help a Red Sox fan (for now?) rationalize why the **** they (one of the richest teams in the sport) appear to still be seriously considering trading Mookie Betts (a consensus top 5 player in baseball) instead of just giving him some damn money to remain a Red Sock/Red Sox for the forseeable future. It is literally mind-boggling. Thanks!
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2:41 |
: Sorry bud, I’ve got nothing for you. It’s a travesty that they’re not locking Mookie up for a long time.
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2:41 |
: Rapid fire impressions: Pugs, Favorite Euro Board Game, Mitch Keller vs. Brendan McKay long-term value (as SP).
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2:41 |
: Oh now this is right up my alley. I’m fairly indifferent on pugs as a breed.
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2:41 |
: Ruby (my dog) is a retriever/pit mix of some type, she’s a rescue.
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2:42 |
: I tend to like big dogs, so pugs run a bit small for me.
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2:42 |
: Favorite Euro game: really depends on what you mean by Euro. My favorite board game of all time is probably Clank, which I highly recommend if you haven’t played it. We also picked up Just One over the holidays, and it’s a great party game.
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2:42 |
: And gimme Keller, though maybe not on the Pirates.
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2:43 |
: fwiw, assuming the Astros continue to win over the next couple of years, the value of two (late) first rounders and two second rounders is about $40M (per Craig Edwards), so the total economic penalty is ~$45M
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2:43 |
: Yeah, it would be cleaner if they could just fine them, but they’re going after the wallet. Smart move imo.
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2:43 |
: As time passes, Red Sox dealing Price seems less and less likely. Do you agree? Chances less than maybe 1 in 3?
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2:44 |
: I think that’s true qualitatively, though I don’t know about 1 in 3.
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2:44 |
: I think that if some team really wanted him, we’d have seen a trade. That’s not to say there aren’t negotiations going on but there’s a conspicuous lack of smoke.
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2:44 |
: Trading Mookie makes perfect sense. He’s not signing anything long term regardless and they have major roster issues that could be addressed through trades. You wouldn’t do anything like the Goldschmidt deal if you were the Red Sox?
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2:45 |
: If the Diamondbacks offered Weaver, Young, Kelly, Comp B pick for Mookie, I think that trade would favor the DBacks
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2:45 |
: So, there’s some fair value for him, of course.
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2:45 |
: But it would almost necessarily require the team to get worse in 2020.
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2:45 |
: And that seems weird given their construction?
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2:46 |
: I assume you’ve played Catan? We’re late to the craze but finally found some people willing to play. Know of any other similar games we may enjoy?
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2:46 |
: Yeah, Catan is really fun, though I think its age shows at times; it can feel a little politic-y and dice-roll-dependent for my tastes at times.
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2:47 |
: If you want a fun game to play with a small group, and are the kind of person who reads FanGraphs, I know I’ve loved Sherlock Holmes: Consulting Detective
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2:47 |
: Every playthrough takes an hour or so, and is a case: it’s cooperative, and you try to look for clues to solve a mystery like Sherlock Holmes.
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2:47 |
: You can make an evening out of it and have a dinner party for four, or just play with two people, and my wife and I always have fun with it.
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2:48 |
: Any thoughts I who is most likely to become this year’s Most valuable late rd.SP’s.? I.E. 2018 Bieber, Paddack, Giolito.
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2:50 |
: So, I’m not your go-to guy for fantasy most likely, because I haven’t played in a few years, though I’m going to pick it up again this year I think. But in terms of players I like to break out this year, I’m pretty interested in Adrian Houser. I have no idea if he’s cheap or not, but if the Brewers are going to give him 30 starts, I think there’s something there. Love the changeup, love the fastball, love getting to face NL central offenses.
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2:50 |
: “And that seems weird given their construction?”
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2:51 |
: As in, they’re built to win in 2020. They have aging players they should be trying to maximize now. The forever dynasty thing is tough to do, especially if you’re not signing Mookie Betts to a long-term contract, and taking a step back in a really tough division when you know that you have Chris Sale semi-healthy this year seems weird.
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2:52 |
: Like the way you become a forever dynasty is through smart drafting, but also through locking up stars. Don’t trade your stars if you’re trying to compete is my view.
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2:52 |
: Ah yeah the trick is finding a game that both I and my non-fangraphs reading wife will enjoy. Catan has struck that balance for now but I’m sure we’ll be looking for another game shortly.
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2:53 |
: Makes sense. I will say that I think co-op games are underrated. Tons of fun to play together and getting the endorphins of winning without squabbling is nice.
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2:53 |
: Practically speaking, how does MLB suspend Luhnow from his GM duties? Are they going to track his movements to ensure he doesn’t show up at the stadium? Monitor his phone calls and text messages to ensure he’s not giving directions to staff?
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2:54 |
: Presumably yes? More likely they’ll monitor the team’s emails and stuff, but I doubt he’s allowed in the stadium, and so on so forth.
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2:54 |
: Shouldn’t every team cheat as much as possible if this is the punishment? if it’s true that the draft picks are worth 40 million and the fine is 5. What team couldn’t afford a one time 45 million dollar investment to get better?
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2:55 |
: I don’t think so. 45 million dollars is a lot. And I think it would be really hard to quantify how much gain the Astros got from the scandal, but I can’t imagine the ROI is higher than spending money in the international market or on player development.
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2:55 |
: Now, if you add in the fact that they almost didn’t get caught, maybe that makes it more reasonable if you’re totally amoral? But I’m skeptical any team is going to look at this and think ‘yes this is what I should do.’
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2:56 |
: Games that are fun for small groups – exploding kittens! But also there are a number of semi-RPG card games that are fun, like Bang! (a spaghetti western inspired game), Donner Dinner Party, etc.
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2:56 |
: Oh yes exploding kittens is great. Also Letter Jam if your small group likes crosswords/word games.
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2:56 |
: I hope the acting Astros GM trades for Mookie.
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2:56 |
: Oh yes please. That would be so fun.
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2:56 |
: But I completely get your point about not trading your stars in building a dynasty. In the Sox case, however, this would be a way out of their current mess with bad contracts and not much support coming from the minors.
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2:57 |
: Yeah if you think the Sox aren’t good this year, then maybe. I think they’re pretty good this year, and that they should try to win now, let Mookie leave (or preferably keep him) and go from there. If a return bowls you over that’s one thing, but if you’re getting, say, a borderline top 100 prospect for literally Mookie Betts, why?
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2:57 |
: Assuming that Arenado opts into the remainder of his deal, what sort of STL package brings him in? Gorman/Liberatore/Fowler (or Carpenter)/Hudson? Does 2 sinkerballers, a future 3b, and a current 3b makes it work?
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2:57 |
: This is like, soooooo far over the top.
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2:57 |
: If I were the Rockies, I would snap this deal off instantly
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2:58 |
: Like, I’d say no-take-back-sies
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2:58 |
: I’m gonna paste in someone else’s speculation:
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2:58 |
: I agree some of the trade talk with re: Arenado seem so far out there. Do you feel like I do that Stanton is a similar trade and that the Rockies should be looking at a couple minor league pieces and maybe one MLB piece who isn’t crazy expensive? The only way I see them getting someone like Liberatore is taking on Fowler or Carpenter right? And wouldn’t STL be interested in 4 years of Donaldson at $10mil less if they couldn’t get rid of Carpenter. It just doesn’t pass the smell test to me.
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3:00 |
: So yeah, this is what I’m thinking. Arenado is better than Stanton, but he isn’t cheap. Assuming he declines his opt out right away, you can ballpark him as something like 27.5 WAR for $227.5 million (these are extreme ballpark numbers using bad aging assumptions).
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3:00 |
: That’s great, and there’s value in having someone so awesome on your team.
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3:01 |
: But it’s not *that* great. Maybe you could do something like Fowler, Liberatore, TON, and a bulk prospect? That would seem reasonable to me, though I don’t think the Rockies would necessarily do it even if the numbers lined up.
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3:02 |
: But if you’re the Cardinals, why spend so much for Arenado when you’ve been complaining about financial constraints?
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3:02 |
: There’s something weird about it to me.
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3:02 |
: If I’m STL I’d probably do the Arenado trade for Gorman, (Fowler or Carpenter), and Hudson
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3:02 |
: Yeah Hudson over TON/bulk prospect, sure
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3:02 |
: “If you’re getting, say, a borderline top 100 prospect for literally Mookie Betts, why?” – Wouldn’t you assume the return would be Goldy return +?
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3:03 |
: Well I thought the Cardinals overpaid by a lot in that, and I think I’d rather have a year of Mookie than that return; so if it’s more than Goldy, that’d be interesting. Less than or equal to, eh.
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3:03 |
: People, if you want to spend $45 milli to get better for a season, grab the top 1-2 FAs on one-year deals. The trash can system was of questionable value. That Cole pitcher, on the other hand, is a proven commodity. We’re better than this.
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3:03 |
: Yeah, wholeheartedly agree.
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3:03 |
: There are ways to use money to get better.
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3:03 |
: That’s a lot of what baseball is!
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3:03 |
: Spending it on fines to cheat? Eh
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3:04 |
: Odds of Cora lifetime ban? 3+ year ban?
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3:04 |
: Lifetime, I’m going to say <5%. I won’t put an exact number on it.
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3:04 |
: But I don’t think it’s likely
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3:05 |
: 3+ years? I’ll put it at 25%, 2 at 40%
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3:05 |
: Oh wise one Mr Ben!! Enlighten thee!! Will Luis Robert and Nick Madrigal finish 1&2 in the AL ROY this season?
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3:05 |
: I’m not going to give anything away, but I have about seven good article titles lined up for Madrigal, so I hope so.
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3:05 |
: So, time to sign some free agents with attached qualifying offers, since the Astros will now be forfeiting lower-level draft picks?
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3:06 |
: I mean, that would be savvy if you thought the Astros weren’t most concerned, this offseason, with saving money. But given that they’ve talked about trading Correa and didn’t even play on Cole, I’m pretty sure they’re trying to save money.
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3:07 |
: You think its likely Cora gets a larger ban than Hinch and Luhnow? Why?
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3:07 |
: So, this is definitely speculation, but:
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3:07 |
No players were disciplined by Major League Baseball in the Astros’ investigation. While Mets manager Carlos Beltran was part of it, he was a player at the time and thus was not suspended.
Discipline for Red Sox manager Alex Cora is coming. It is going to be harsh, per sources. |
3:07 |
: Welp Lunhow and Hinsch just got fired.
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3:07 |
Jim Crane just fired Jeff Luhnow and AJ Hinch.
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3:07 |
: That’s a long suspension!
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3:07 |
: A forever one
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3:07 |
: Proposal: Make all sign stealing of every sort legal. Leave it to catchers/teams to hide signs.
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3:07 |
: Uh, pass. Pass so much
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3:08 |
: Why would you want this?
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3:08 |
: All this does is slow the game down more for no gain
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3:08 |
: No one wants to watch teams steal signs. I’m fine with players taking little edges but this seems crazy to me.
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3:08 |
: Yea what do you think QO penalty for HOU is now?
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3:08 |
: If I recall correctly, it’d be their highest pick, so third round pick?
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3:09 |
: I’m actually shocked that the astros fired them. Luhnow more so than Hinch. Managers are more replaceable than a good GM/POBO
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3:10 |
: I’m more shocked by Luhnow than Hinch, but the Astros FO, at this point, might be causing more trouble for Crane than they’re worth. Advantages aren’t permanent, personnel changes, and it could be that he was employing the guys who were really valuable 5 years ago but are just average now, and in exchange getting alllllll this awful behavior for it.
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3:11 |
: I think the astros penalty regarding QO if I read correctly is that it will be 2 first rounders, so if they would lose one due to singing a free agent, that year doesn’t count and they would instead lose their next first round pick.
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3:11 |
: I need to read through this. That would be a very clever way to do it, and in fact makes sense. If that’s the case, then wow signing a free agent is very bad for them now.
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3:11 |
: Do you think Crane was aware of the punishments ahead of time and able to mull this decision, or do you think he got the info relatively real time and just reacted with the firings?
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3:11 |
: Oh 100%. I don’t know how far in advance, but they didn’t just tell the Astros on one line while someone called Jeff Passan on another line.
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3:12 |
: Why wouldn’t the Giants invite Heliot Ramos to Spring Training as non-roster invitee? He’s a top 3 prospect for them in AA, not far from the Show, wouldn’t it make sense to get his feet wet with the big boys?
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3:12 |
: I think they should! I think sending prospects to spring training should be done more often
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3:13 |
: Yeah, I think the firings read to me mostly as Crane just being fed up with everything. Obviously he has some level of tolerance for unsavory-leaning behavior, but there has to be a line somewhere!
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3:13 |
: I agree with this. Here are some things we can say with certainty
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3:13 |
: 5 years ago, the Astros front office was one of the very best in the game.
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3:13 |
: 3 years ago, the Astros front office was one of the very best in the game.
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3:14 |
: Currently, the Astros player development system seems amazing, though I’m not convinced they are playing 4d chess at the GM level.
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3:14 |
: Currently, the Astros front office is trying to do every scandal all at once.
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3:14 |
: So like…. maybe just fire Luhnow, keep the guys you still think offer some juice, and start over?
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3:14 |
: Will Luhnow and Hinch work in baseball again? This seems like a final nail type of deal.
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3:14 |
: I think Hinch yes Luhnow no
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3:14 |
: But I want to think about this more.
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3:15 |
: If you’re an aspiring baseball writer, how do you promote your writing without being too pushy or annoying?
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3:15 |
: Wonderful question. I’ll give you some stream of consciousness answers, but also drop me a DM on Twitter some time and let’s talk.
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3:15 |
: I think that it’s useful, as annoying as it is, to be associated with a brand.
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3:16 |
: So submit to THT. Submit to the community blog (which is awesome!).
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3:16 |
: Generally write a lot, and heck, if you don’t feel like writing for a place (I started at SB Nation, but there are several), just write your own stuff on blogspot or something.
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3:17 | : One of my favorite people to read about the Cardinals literally just publishes his own articles on blogspot ( |
3:17 |
: I’m not sure how to go about building up a following, because I basically just wrote, a lot, and fell backwards into this job. But write. A lot.
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3:18 |
: Clerical question (been a while since I’ve caught a chat so this is the first of yours I’ve participated in): Are you officially in the chat rotation now and is this time set for each week or is it still up in the air?
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3:18 |
: This is my first chat! And I’m now in the rotation for good, every Monday 2pm ET
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3:18 |
: How much of this is because they also taunted the other teams so much?
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3:18 |
: A lot! They cheated the most, but they were also the most jerkish about it.
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3:19 |
: Silver Lining’s loophole won’t work: “The Astros will also lose their first- and second-round picks in each of the next two seasons and be fined the maximum $5MM that is allowable under the league’s constitution. If the team does not have a first- or second-round selection in either draft — due to draft forfeitures for signing a free agent, for instance — they’ll lose that pick in the subsequent year’s draft.”
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3:19 |
: Thanks Trent. There you go.
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3:19 |
: Just bought Azul and love it. Good thinking/strategy game that is easyish to explain and doesn’t take forever to play (also decent for kids/smart 8 yr olds and up)…Do you have any favorites in that vain?
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3:20 |
: Ooh Azul is amazing. I’ve only played Splendour a few times but people also like that a lot, and it’s a similarly abstract concept, though more of a deckbuilder than whatever you’d call Azul. Clank, which I suggested earlier, is also really fun, and I think kids 8+ would love the theme. Also, if you want a fast game, Sushi Go! is so so fun, and you can teach it in a few minutes.
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3:21 |
: If like Azul, try Sagrada.
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3:21 |
: I can’t imagine Lunhow not working in baseball again based on his reputation, alone. I think a suffering franchise will take the gamble. He doesn’t deserve it based on how he runs his departments, but it would shock me to see him gone.
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3:21 |
: So this is interesting. I’m generally skeptical of the great man theory of baseball teams, and I wonder what owners think. One thing that I might think, if I were an owner, is “I care about my baseball team winning somewhat, but I care about losing $45 million worth of value somewhat more. This guy seems risky.”
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3:22 |
: I’d feel more certain about that if the punishment were all in fine,r ather than in draft picks.
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3:22 |
: But if we want to call owners jerks for not trying to win enough, we should acknowledge that they can be led by the wallet.
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3:22 |
: And hiring Luhnow seems financially risky. He’s a known cheating risk at this point. I imagine any hiring would have to come with extensive commitment on his part to be above-board.
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3:23 |
: Machi Koro is kinda different and I’ve generally had a great time with it!
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3:23 |
: Don’t buy the Harbor expansion, that ruined it for me. But great game, feels like playing craps at home!
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3:23 |
: (we have a lot of games)
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3:23 |
: Hey Ben – thanks for your time and I loved your piece on Austin Hedges a few weeks ago. For someone who is interested in analytics and is working with Python currently, do you have any recommendations on resources/further reading?
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3:24 |
: I am probably worse at Python than you are. I have done a lot of learning on code academy, and I look up a ton of stuff on stackoverflow, but mainly what I’d say is come up with something that interests you and try to code it. And then you’ll fail, because things won’t work the way you think.
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3:24 |
: So do it a different way.
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3:24 |
: And that will probably fail too, but then you’ve learned two things that don’t work.
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3:24 |
: And so on.
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3:25 |
: When I write an article using Python, I’m often spending 5-6 hours failing to do what I want in the background before I write anything. It’s tough but satisfying.
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3:25 |
: Any thoughts on who the top GM candidates will be now to take over in Houston? Feels like Espada should be close to a slam dunk to take over as the new manager
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3:25 |
: I’ll be honest with you, I have no idea.
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3:25 |
: I don’t know a ton about the inner workings of their front office.
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3:26 |
: I think it will almost certainly stay in-house, though.
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3:26 |
: One thing I’ve learned from working at a variety of places is that when it seems like there’s one brilliant mind controlling somethin from the top
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3:26 |
: It means that the people working for them are great.
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3:26 |
: On the shoulders of giants, etc.
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3:26 |
: What do you think are the odds we look back on this cheating scandal with the same rose-colored glasses we apply to other scandals that happened 50+ years ago?
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3:27 |
: Oh, quite high. And to be honest, I don’t think that we’ll ever be able to prove how much this benefited them. I think we will look back and say that the Astros got some advantage, and that they were punished by more than they gained.
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3:28 |
: I have no clue if that’s true, but to me the main (totally provable) victim in this is the viewer, who had to watch longer games.
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3:28 |
: And as victims go, that’s not so bad.
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3:28 |
: Ben, have you played Wingspan? Friends got it for the holidays, and we all had a blast with it the other night!
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3:28 |
: Ugh jealous. We aren’t buying new games at the moment because we have a backlog (getting a dog cuts into your gaming time)
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3:28 |
: But I’ve had my eye on Wingspan
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3:28 |
: I’m a sucker for pretty games
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3:28 |
: And it’s really pretty.
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3:28 |
: Its seems a little odd that the MLB wouldn’t wait with the findings on the Astros investigation to line up with the Red Sox, no? Could this mean that there is some larger information in the Sox case that might take quite some time longer?
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3:30 |
: Yes. I think that MLB wanted to get something done on the Astros, and they had more lead time there. There’s no compelling reason to sync up the punishments given that we’re not in-season; I’m sure the Red Sox would like to know ASAP, but if MLB is still investigating, they’re still investigating, and I’m guessing there’s a lot to dig through.
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3:30 |
: i’ve basically taught myself excel vba based on stackoverflow and trial/error. it can be done!
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3:31 |
: Little inside baseball story that probably no one will enjoy: 14-ish years ago, in a college internship, my boss asked me to code something up in VBA. I said, absolutely, give me two weeks.
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3:31 |
: Then I bought a book on what VBA was, and spent four hours a night learning it.
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3:31 |
: FInished it just in time!
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3:31 |
: (it was a loop that tried to predict seasonal changes in natural gas prices based on weather, and it amounted to nothing)
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3:32 |
: Does this harm Beltran in the voting down the line? And Altuve someday with his case (if the MVP figures heavily)?
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3:33 |
: I’m curious to see what Jay thinks about this. My guess would be Beltran no, because it’s not as though his performance on the Astros is part of his candidacy. But Altuve yes if he’s a cuspy HOF’er, because his peak and accumulation stats were both potentially affected.
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3:33 |
: I’d say that Yu Darvish might have some opinions on who was actually hurt the most. Remember when he suddenly starting “tipping pitches” against the Astros?
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3:33 |
: Well he’s actually opined on this already. I can’t find the Twitter thread offhand, but he didn’t seem overly upset.
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3:33 |
: As a side note, if you don’t follow Darvish on Twitter (and you use Twitter), do it now.
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3:34 |
: He’s 100% undoubtedly the best active player to follow.
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3:34 |
: Ty Kelly is up there, but not active.
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3:34 |
: And also, Yu Darvish is an All Star while Ty Kelly is not. So Darvish wins the tiebreaker.
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3:35 |
: Do you think this punishment deters teams enough to in turn lessen the chances of MLB implementing the possible wacky anti-cheating measures they were discussing?
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3:35 |
: I do. This is a lot of dough. Owners care about money. MLB is going to be vigilant. My sense is that they are investigating MANY teams right now.
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3:35 |
: Regarding Beltran/HOF impact…not that I necessarily disagree with your argument, but how (if at all) would that argument be different from the “Barry Bonds was a HOF’er before he started taking roids” argument?
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3:35 |
: The difference is that Bonds played a lot of seasons where he was still great while allegedly using PED’s.
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3:36 |
: Beltran was on the Astros for a year and was worth -1.1 WAR
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3:36 |
: Stop Bonds’ career before 2000, and he’d be a lot worse. Stop Beltran’s career before 2017, and he’d be better.
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3:36 |
: Over/Under on 2.5 more teams facing punishments before all this is done?
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3:37 |
: Easy over.
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3:37 |
: Under 0.5 teams facing punishment approaching Astros severity
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3:37 |
: But I think they’ll want to do some small fines for small things to show that they’re serious.
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3:37 |
: Right, but if we could statistically put pre-roid Bonds in just on his pre-roid stats, then the roids negates him not due to impact but due to integrity. Thus wouldn’t the integrity aspect also disqualify Beltran? (Again, just playing Devil’s Advocate)
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3:37 |
: Yeah that’s fair. I mean, I can’t put myself in the shoes of those voters, because I’d vote for Bonds.
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3:38 |
: But also, my guess is that those voters don’t hate sign stealing as much as they hate PED’s? Sign stealing is as old as baseball, and Beltran is a baseballer’s baseballer.
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3:38 |
: Is the team going to be humble for a year, finally? Like will they stop talking? Because that’s the thing that really needs to happen.
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3:38 |
: So, I’m not what you’d call an insider.
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3:38 |
: I don’t know anyone on the Astros, or much of anyone on any team really.
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3:38 |
: But I always got the sense that the whole ‘smartest guys in the room’ vibe started from the top.
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3:39 |
: And that it was a culture thing largely instilled at the highest levels
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3:39 |
: So maybe the people the next tier down are more chill
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3:39 |
: And humble.
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3:39 |
: We’ll see!
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3:40 |
: Alright, I’m going to wrap it up here, because I have forgotten to eat, and also I forgot to eat breakfast. But before I go, a quick award to my favorite username of the day:
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3:40 |
: (smiling)
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3:40 |
: Runners up: I liked Brian CashGod, and I liked BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins. And I can’t remember every name by a long shot
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3:41 |
: So come back next week, will you? We can talk cheating scandals, or computer programming and how I’m bad at it, or especially board games and sleeper pitchers
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3:41 |
: And heck, talk Mookie Betts while we’re at it.
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3:41 |
: Have a great day, everyone, and thanks for taking the time to chat!
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @benclemens.
There appears to be something wrong with the chat
Couldn’t get past the velvet rope either