Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 11/19/20

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, and welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: I’m probably going to keep it short-ish and sweet-ish today, because I don’t anticipate there being a ton to talk about

Ben Clemens: Unless you have some good recipes to share, or games to talk about.

Ben Clemens: Let’s kick things off with non-tender/trade type stuff

Quincy Adams Wagstaff: What might the Nationals have to give up to get Bryant?

Ben Clemens: I don’t know if Bryant will get non-tendered, but I don’t think it will be a complete shock if it happens. He probably shouldn’t be — 20 million dollars isn’t out of the question for someone of his skill level

Ben Clemens: But the worries are kind of there

Ben Clemens: If he signs for his 18.6mm arb estimate, it’s hard to see a team seeing much surplus value there. Maybe two FV 45 prospects, that kind of range? He’s a big name, but there are serious questions about his being able to sustain his previous performance level and he’s only a year from free agency anyway

Angels: Brandon Marsh, David Fletcher, Patrick Sandoval, and Luis Rengifo for Blake Snell. Who says no?

Ben Clemens: I actually think both teams say no? The Rays don’t need more fringe-average middle infielders, much as I love Fletcher

Ben Clemens: They’re in a constant roster crunch as it is, so adding 4 players who need to be on the 40-man seems like a weird move for them

Ben Clemens: I guess net 3, but still

Ben Clemens: And meanwhile, the Angels probably shouldn’t be trading bulk for a single pitcher, they are kind of thin as it is

Ben Clemens: More Snell stuff:

Rufus T. Firefly: Should the Yankees non-tender Gary Sanchez?

Otis B. Driftwood: I’d love to see the Yankees and Rays hook up.  it would be risky for both teams, but with the Rays needing some catching, a package centered around Sanchez plus a couple of other pieces for Snell might just be great — or terrible — for both teams.

Ben Clemens: Love the juxtaposition here

Ben Clemens: As Craig Edwards wrote about, Sanchez doesn’t have much trade value

Ben Clemens: Not to the point where I think he’ll get non-tendered, but he’s not a valuable chip at the moment

Ben Clemens: Snell is, so I don’t really see this happening

RMR: Is Atlanta going to let Austin Riley run with 3B this year or put a vet in front of him?  I’m kind of encouraged by the plate discipline changes he made last year.

Ben Clemens: I think they’re gonna give him some rope. I’ve been very encouraged by Riley, to be honest. His overall offensive production wasn’t miles better this year, but the building blocks look a lot more stable

Ben Clemens: I think you can feel fine projecting him for more power, and probably a better BABIP

Ben Clemens: I don’t have a great feel for his defense at third, but if you think he’s abysmal, that’s not great

Ben Clemens: If you think he’s average, as OAA does, much more encouraging

Guest: What comp do you put on Riley?  Does Casty with more power work?

Ben Clemens: I’m not really a comparison guy, I just feel like I make bad ones too often

Ben Clemens: Riley feels like a deluxe Jedd Gyorko to me but I can’t say why I think that

Guest: If your team needs a catcher, would you prefer to sign Yadier Molina to a 1-year, 10MM deal, Brian McCann for a 2-year, 30MM deal, or JT Realmuto for a 5-year, 95MM deal?

Ben Clemens: I think I’d go Realmuto, then Yadi, then McCann

Ben Clemens: 2/30 for McCann is a LOT

Ben Clemens: And to be clear, I thikn we’re talking about James McCann here, right?

Ryan: Suppose the Blue Jays sign Springer, the Yankees bring back LeMahieu, the Red Sox sign Bauer, and the Rays trade away Snell.  How does the AL East shake out next year?

Ben Clemens: Probably NYY is at the top, and then a big mass of TOR/TB/BOS fight for scraps

RMR: Assuming no setbacks, is Clevinger ready for OD 2022?

Ben Clemens: That’s my guess — maybe a start or two later than that

RMR: Are the Royals going to give Franchy a real shot to see what he can do this year (assuming health)?

Ben Clemens: Would have felt better about this before they just signed Michael A Taylor

Guest: Do you think the Reds’ experience with Akiyama’s (lack of) offense this year will make them reluctant to seriously consider Kim as a SS option, on the grounds that stats from Asia aren’t a great indication of MLB success?

Ben Clemens: Nah, I don’t think it’s super relevant. Different league, completely different player, and plenty of KBO players have come over and been roughly what we thought they’d be. The Reds know that as well as any other team, regardless of what they rolled on this one player this one year.

Cole: Along with being active in free agency, do you think it would be a good idea for the Mets to trade for a bad 1 yr contract (Thinking like an Ian Desmond, Avi Garcia, Eduardo Escobar, etc.) but also acquiring a promising young player in the deal? Essentially “buying a prospect.”  I think their financial situation gives them unique opportunities in this market as a lot of teams seem to be looking to shed underwater contracts.

Ben Clemens: If it’s on offer yes, but I haven’t really heard of a lot of teams champing at the bit to do this. That discussion would happen quietly most likely, but yeah, if they can do it, they should definitely be open to it.

Abie the Fish Man: If you were Mike Rizzo, assuming Bryant is tendered, what do you trade to get him?

Guest: If you’re the Nats, would you rather pay blood & treasure for Bryant, or mere dollars for a big (but older) FA bat?

Ben Clemens: I’ll level with you — I don’t know much about the Nats’ minor league system. I’d part with two back-of-the-top-10 prospects in their system assuming it looks roughly like Eric has it — top-heavy with Kieboom without much depth

Ben Clemens: That might not be enough for the Cubs, but if they’re semi-rebuilding anyway, they might pull the trigger. This isn’t a Mookie Betts kind of trade, in my eyes

Ben Clemens: They can’t demand more prospect value than a rough estimate would find “fair” in exchange for the privilege of adding a superstar b/c I don’t really consider Bryant a lock All Star type anymore

RMR: What kind of player does Sung Bum Na project as in MLB?  Sounds like there’s plus power, but can we expect any OBP, defense and/or stolen bases?

Ben Clemens: We’ll certainly have a writeup out about this sometime soon, so keep your eyes peeled. I will definitely not be doing it because I couldn’t tell you enough about him, aside from the fact that he has a lot of pop and I like the Dino’s jerseys

Malik: ‘Tis the season for fictional trade proposals.  Correa for Hader.  Who says no?  Thanks!

Ben Clemens: Ooh, I think this is kind of close, but that the Brewers would say no

Ben Clemens: One year of Correa at a bargain rate is nice, but they’ve generally looked for more years of team control than that

Ben Clemens: Especially given the fact that they’d like to keep Hiura at second; seems like a bit of a waste to fill up shortstop then and have nowhere to put Urias or Arcia

Ben Clemens: Not that they’re both necessarily world beaters, but teams like the Brewers need to be maximally efficient with their roster given ownership’s payroll dictates

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Helpful tip for trade proposals: when the player is a non-tender candidate, don’t try to build a package around them for Blake Snell.

Ben Clemens: Posting this comment only in hopes that you’ll tell me some delicious recipes you’ve recently made

Chris: What’s gotten into the royals? Any other teams going to start before Wednesday?

Ben Clemens: I doubt it, but I’m happy we at least have something to talk about

Ben Clemens: And I really do like the Minor signing

Ben Clemens: You can never have enough pitching

Guest: Who is the single HOF candidate where your opinion of his candidacy most diverges from the conventional wisdom?

Ben Clemens: For me, Gary Sheffield should be a no-doubt lock

Ben Clemens: I’m not someone who delves deeply into HOF stuff

Ben Clemens: But Sheffield’s bat waggle just SCREAMS baseball to me. I spent my entire youth trying to replicate it

Ben Clemens: That feeling of terror he inspired just feels to me like it should be in the Hall

Mrs. Teasdale: Do you think the Yankees should try to make a deal with LAD for Ruiz or SD for Mejia?

Ben Clemens: I think they should either sign Realmuto or try to work with Sanchez

Ben Clemens: He still has sky high potential

Guest: Dan Straily: Legitimate MLB pitcher in 2021?

Jeff: Thoughts on Raul Alcantara from the KBO?

Ben Clemens: I’m more in on Alcantara than Straily

Ben Clemens: Not because I have some secret information on either, or anything like that

Ben Clemens: They were both awesome in 2020

Ben Clemens: But Alcantara is four years younger, and he didn’t have Straily’s disastrous 2019

Barivelli: How about McCann to the Yankees?

Ben Clemens: Yeah I suppose that would work for me as well

Guest: Re: McCann: 30MM is perhaps high, but he also has the 2nd highest wRC+ of any catcher over the last two years with at least 500 PAs, beating out, among others JT Realmuto.  Not sold on his offense?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m not completely sold on the bat — and to be clear, projection systems really aren’t either. Steamer projects him for an 80 wRC+ next year, and maybe that’s too low, but he hit for a TON of power this year without any clear indication that he’s hitting the ball harder or barreling it up more or anything like that

Ben Clemens: I’m higher on him than Steamer, but still think that he’s going to be something approaching an average catcher offensively, particulalry when handling an everyday workload

Jesse: What do you think about the Rays potentially pursuing Rich Hill?

Ben Clemens: Seems reasonable, they will need to add average-or-better pitching depth and he fits the bill

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t count on a full season out of him, which complicates things, but look, I love Rich Hill, I’m super into it

Norm: Thoughts on the MLB draft league that MLB just announced?

Ben Clemens: Haven’t read enough about it yet to have a good informed take

Ben Clemens: I’ll tell you that I’m going to be going in skeptical, because minor league baseball was a formative part of my youth, but I hope that this can somewhat replace that in communities losing minor league affiliates

Mitch: Could you see the A’s dangling Bassit or Montas in a trade to try to acquire a 2B/SS? Both are getting more expensive for OAK and market demand for SP seems to be high. OAK MIF depth is very thin at the moment and Lemahieu, Semien, Simmons, etc. figure to be out of their spending range

Ben Clemens: For sure! If I were them I’d try to trade Montas, because (perhaps foolishly) I think he’s better-regarded but also worse

Ben Clemens: But those are valuable pieces, and I think they could withstand the loss of one or the other if it made them a lot better on offense/defense

Norm: Starting pitching is Oakland’s biggest weakness. I don’t see them trading Montas

Ben Clemens: I don’t agree that it’s their biggest weakness

Ben Clemens: I think they have essentially a number 2 and four number 3’s

Ben Clemens: They need more than that, but I think the middle infield is now their biggest weakness

Cashmoney: Whats the biggest surprise non tender on Wednesday?

Ben Clemens: I’ll stick to my Bryant guns, but I don’t really believe they’ll do it anymore. I thought Theo going out on that note would have made more sense. I give it a 15% chance

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The Piercing Green Eyes household has been on a fall and comfort food kick lately.
Our breakfasts of choice:
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1018354-pumpkin-maple-muffins
https://www.seriouseats.com/recipes/2019/03/thick-and-fluffy-pancakes….
Stovetop mac and cheese (definitely add some acid, whether that’s jalapenos or hot sauce, to cut through the cheese)
https://www.seriouseats.com/recipes/2015/10/the-food-labs-ultra-gooey-…
The most amazing soft, buttery Parker house rolls:
https://www.kingarthurbaking.com/recipes/parker-house-rolls-recipe
We’ve tried a bunch of chili recipes, this is our go to. No issues with burn warnings.
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1019159-pressure-cooker-classic-be…
Great pantry meal pasta option. Use good ingredients, especially olive oil, on simple recipes.
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/1778-penne-with-roasted-cherry-tom…

Ben Clemens: Excellent!

Ben Clemens: We’ve made those pumpkin maple muffins, or something very similar, and they were excellent

Guest: Javier Baez and JD Martinez had terrible years, which they attributed at least in part to their difficulty adjusting to not being able to make as extensive a use of video replay as in the past.  How do you see 2021 playing out for them?

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll both be able to adjust to it, but I can totally buy that the switch from one method to another can be jarring

Ben Clemens: Though I do think a good deal of that is just mindset and comfort

Ben Clemens: So playin a season without it probably involved growing pains

Cashmoney: How do the Yanks fill out the rotoation?

Ben Clemens: I kind of think they’ll resign Tanaka?

Ben Clemens: Lot of organizational comfort there

Ben Clemens: And then maybe do some poking around at reclamation projects

DRB: Minimalist recipe: bake a sweet potato, broccoli, red pepper in the oven until potato is to your liking.  Marinade pressed tofu in teriyaki sauce, fry over medium heat until all sides are cooked.  Serve over rice.  The point isn’t to have exotic flavors, but a cheap, simple, healthy meal in a flash.

Ben Clemens: I’m eating some tofu for lunch as we speak!

Ben Clemens: This is the kind of recipe my wife and I make most frequently: cook some veggies and some protein, either as a one-sheet-pan meal or one in the oven one on the stove

Morris: I doubt he’d be traded and don’t want him to be traded, but for how many teams would Dom Smith likely be an upgrade at 1B?

Ben Clemens: A lot!

Ben Clemens: Hm, let’s be more specific

Ben Clemens: Roughly half

Cambodian Creamsicle: I told a buddy a few days back that GMDM saying he wanted a SP and a middle of the order bat meant going down the free agent lists until he reached guys that no other teams would compete for.  They then signed Minor and Taylor.  Same old Royals, or sneaky good signs?

Ben Clemens: I like the Minor signing, because the starting pitching market sets up such that unless you’re getting Bauer, Minor provides a roughly equivalent level of production to the next tier

Ben Clemens: Now, if Taylor is their middle of the order bat, that’s a problem

Ben Clemens: But given that he signed for $1.75 million with $1 million in incentives, I don’t think that’s the case

DRB: Speaking of tofu: who is the player comparison? An under appreciated and multi versatile staple that the casual fan stubbornly says sucks?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s Kolten Wong, as seen by Cardinals fans

Ben Clemens: does a lot of things,strangely disliked

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: I’d love get into the tofu game because I can’t make my favorite vegetarian Indian dishes since the pandemic because I can’t source some of the ingredients and spices. Favorite recipes?

Ben Clemens: Honestly I never do the tofu cooking, but I asked my wife, and she says we don’t have any particular recipes we always use, just generally marinate it in Asian spices, coat in corn starch, and pan fry

Ben Clemens: More of a cook-by-feel situation there

Guest: Re: Tanaka: He seems like he could be the new Gardner or Kuroda, where the Yankees just continually bring him back on a one year deal until he gets sick of playing.  Or do you foresee a multiyear contract?

Ben Clemens: I could totally see this. Don’t have any info either way though

Moonlight Graham: In your opinion will Ji-Man Choi get non tendered?

Ben Clemens: No. Near the line, but I don’ see it

Guest: If Realmuto/Springer demand can be had for same contract, say 5/$125. Which one do mets sign? Neither? Both?

Ben Clemens: I think Realmuto, but I don’t know whether it’s just a subconscious bias I have that the Mets have learned their lesson from playing guys who can’t quite play center in center

DRB: For Kiermaiers beautiful eyes: Buffalo tofu wrap.   Marinate the pressed tofu in Buffalo sauce, cut into pieces and bake on 425 for 30-45 min, cover any leafy greens you’d like and drench in vegan ranch dressing, add tofu, place in wrap, enjoy!

David: tofu? why not just eat real meat!

Ben Clemens: It’s nice to switch things up and have a lot of different meals

Ben Clemens: Tofu is also something you can keep in the fridge and make with less planning than, say, chicken

Ben Clemens: And cooks pretty quickly

Ben Clemens: One thing I like doing is buying a bag of Rotisserie chicken from Costco, then shredding it and freezing it in individual Ziploc bags

Ben Clemens: Which makes for a good cheap portion-reasonable way to make chicken, but does require thawing overnight

5 Run Homer: I’ve got chili on the go in the slow cooker, I’ll let you know how it goes next week

Ben Clemens: Yes more chili recipes always welcome

Cambodian Creamsicle: When GMDM got to KC, he said he wanted to get a “high OBP middle of the order bat” and subsequently traded for Mike Jacobs.  Just sayin’.  Wouldn’t be surprised if he thinks Taylor IS that guy.  I mean, you know he’s not going to sign Ozuna.

Ben Clemens: Taylor has 132 PA in the 2-5 spots in the lineup out of his career 1804 PA

Ben Clemens: Jacobs’ most common spot was 4th, second-most-common was 5th

Ben Clemens: It’s not the same thing

Mr. Hammer: Is Michael A. Taylor the regular CF in KC?  He did fairly well the one year the Nats gave him playing time.

Ben Clemens: I could see that. It seems cheap for a guy who has been totally acceptable when he’s needed to fill in

Ben Clemens: It’s a glove-first profile, but that’s maybe at its best in cavernous KC

Adam: What’s the MLB equivalent of what happened with the Broncos yesterday?  It’s Chico, right?

Ben Clemens: Definitely Chico

Guest: I’m a bit confused by your response to the Realmuto/Springer question- are you saying that you think the Mets have learned their lesson, and that Springer should not be playing CF? Or that they have not learned their lesson, and will keep playing guys like Nimmo there?

Ben Clemens: The first

Ben Clemens: Not that he shouldn’t be right now

Ben Clemens: But that if you sign him for five years, you’re planning on him being a corner guy for a decent chunk of it

Ben Clemens: But they’re overloaded on corner guys as it is

Guest: What’s wrong with signing Springer to play CF for 2-3 years and then getting a new CF to replace him then?

Ben Clemens: Mainly just that I think it’s more like 0-1 years

Isolated Thinker: When should we expect to hear about whether 2021 will be 162 games and a regular schedule/opponents?

Ben Clemens: I have absolutely no clue

Jeff: What payroll level do you think the league would like the Cubs to have before allowing positive press again?

Ben Clemens: I don’t really know what this means but allowing positive press? Huh? I think the league would love the Cubs to keep spending a ton and competing for the division

Ben Clemens: They’re a team in a big city with a lot of fun players, and I’m sure MLB would vastly prefer the stories coming out of there to be about the players rather than the front office saying they can’t sign relievers or whatever. The best Cubs story of the 2010s is Javy Baez’s tagging, imo

Ben Clemens: (ex the obvious one)

Magic: Did you know Hunter Pence streams his Magic gameplay on Twitch?  Think I remember reading you like that game

Ben Clemens: I did indeed know that!

Ben Clemens: A friend of mine here invited him (via Twitter, so only kind of I suppose) to his local game

Ben Clemens: He did not reply, unsurprisingly

Appa Yip Yip: If you slice medium tofu then freeze it when you thaw it literally all of the water squeezes out and it turns into a sponge that soaks up all of the sauce.

Jon: Ben, how can a voter justify voting for Andruw Jones – known domestic abuser, but not vote for Curt Schilling – known Nazi. How does a voter compare and contrast offenses across the board from a number of these players and appropriately weigh who was worse than others? I’m not celebrating or in favor of either of them being enshrined and given a platform – but it bothers me how we look aside some horrid acts but not others.

Ben Clemens: This is obviously a difficult topic to address, and I will say that I’m not completely sure what I’d do if I were a vote.

Ben Clemens: voter*

Ben Clemens: One of the trickiest things about the Hall, to me, is how to weigh on-field accomplishments against other things that may or may not be disqualifying

Ben Clemens: I truly don’t know where I’d come down on each individual case for the Hall this year, and I also don’t know how I feel about considering off-field things, period, in it

Ben Clemens: It’s obviously very difficult to weigh the various ways people can be terrible against each other

Ben Clemens: and then weigh THAT against baseball

Alky Briggs: When will we get the word on the new minor-league alignment for 2021?

Ben Clemens: No official word but I’d guess next week at the latest? The announcements are coming in fast and furious

Jeff: Should I expect a white guy in his 30s from an Ivy league school and some family money to be the next GM of the Cubs?

Ben Clemens: That’s probably your best bet! I guess of those 5 things (white, guy, 30s, Ivy Leaguer, family money)

Ben Clemens: I think that family money is the one that is least likely, followed by 30s, and then Ivy Leaguer

Adam: How long before the Texas Rangers are the all-time postseason wins leader in their own stadium?

Ben Clemens: So, I think the Dodgers won 11 games there

Ben Clemens: If you win the DS and lose the CS, you’ll play somewhere between 3 and 7 home games

Ben Clemens: Peg it at 5, figure you win 50%-ish, that means you’ll need 4-5 playoff runs to do it

Ben Clemens: You’re around 60% to make the WS if you play in 4 playoffs and it’s all coin flips, so let’s say 4 playoff runs

Ben Clemens: I dunno — 12 years?

Jeff: Will the Tigers NT Niko Goodrum?

Ben Clemens: Nah, is he even being discussed as an optoin?

Ben Clemens: I didn’t realize he was eligible even

Ben Clemens: Yeah looks like he’s ARB1 this year, but no, I don’t think he’ll get non-tendered

Jeff: What kind of contract does Yoennis Cespedes get?

Ben Clemens: 1/3 with huge performance bonuses or something? Truly no clue, he’s a real wild card

Appa Yip Yip: The Rangers fell off a cliff immediately after Odor punched Bautista for doing a fun and cool thing it is fate.

Ben Clemens: Can’t really argue with that

Jeff: Will the Rays really NT Jose Alvarado? Saw on MLBTR he’s a candidate…Averaged 98 MPH as a LHRP!

Ben Clemens: I do not think they will, because he’s only Arb1 and didn’t pitch much this year

Ben Clemens: So the cost just won’t be very high

Guest: Which is more surprising: that Mike Mussina never won a WS, or Wes Welker never won a SB?

Ben Clemens: Wow, Wes Welker for me for sure1

Ben Clemens: !*

Ben Clemens: Like I half thought you somehow had that wrong. He was on a bunch of good teams

Meg: What does your typical day / week as a writer look like (total hours, time spent writing vs. editing vs. stat / data searching, etc.)? Do you have a sense of how that varies among the FG staff?

Ben Clemens: Hey Meg!

Ben Clemens: (presumably not actually editor Meg, but who knows!)

Ben Clemens: I’m not really sure how to apportion time correctly, but I generally start working around 7 a.m., finish around 6 p.m., but spend a non-negligible amount of the time in between going for a walk, or working out, or playing a game to clear my head, or stuff like that. it’s definitely nothing near a solid 11 hours

Ben Clemens: Then there’s the fact that Fridays are lighter and Sundays heavier than a normal job

Ben Clemens: But the vast majority of time is searching for article ideas

Ben Clemens: I get the sense that I spend the least time actually writing per article that anyone here does, though I’m not 100% ont hat

Glass-Bottom Boat: Will Ohtani pitch in 21?  Will Ohtani pitch well in 21?

Ben Clemens: I’m just gonna say no to both.

Ben Clemens: On that note, I’m going to call it a day. Sorry I couldn’t get to more of your questions, as this chat ended up being a lot busier than I expected, but I have a project I’m working on that I just got a great brainstorm for, and I want to strike while the iron is hot. I’ll be back next week so that we can finally look at who was non-tendered instead of guessing who will be non-tendered

Ben Clemens: Have a great day, everyone, and as always, let me know what chili recipes you like, beans and all.