Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 2/14/22

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat

Ben Clemens: I’m going to grab a coffee really quickly, and then we’ll get down to business.

Ben Clemens: Okay, let’s go

Hacked off in Austin: We all know the owners have dragged their feet, but the counters from MLBPA have not set land speed records either. Why can’t their be a counter from the union today?

Ben Clemens: I don’t really think it matters much

Ben Clemens: The owners’ proposals have thus far all been far worse than the previous CBA

Ben Clemens: The luxury tax increases they’re proposing are outrageous, particularly in conjunction with the deflating cap

Ben Clemens: If you and I are debating how we split a cake, and I open with me getting 60% and you open with you getting 60%, we can meet in the middle

Ben Clemens: If I open with me getting 60% and you open with kicking me in the mouth and taking the cake

Ben Clemens: What’s the point of me countering?

Guest: instead of agreeing to a CBA, would the owners and players ever just agree to binding arbitration? like where one side presents their case the the other presents theirs, and the arbiter decides?

Ben Clemens: Definitely not

Ben Clemens: Neither side would agree to it

Deep Impact: Care to take a guess at number of ABs for Daulton Varsho? He’s a nice hack at catcher in fantasy.

Ben Clemens: I’m a buyer at the 400-PA level that it seems most of our projections are at (PA’s easier to handicap for me than AB’s)

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll play enough center that his playing time will look GREAT for a catcher

Ben Clemens: I think he’s a valuable fantasy asset, totally agreed

Hyde: Kelenick over or under 3 WAR this year? Does he ever have a 5 WAR season?

Ben Clemens: I’ll take the under on 3 WAR this year, but ‘yes’ on if he’ll ever have a 5 WAR season

Ben Clemens: I think those are just the safe bets

Ben Clemens: Although maybe ‘no’ is better for 5 WAR season

Ben Clemens: But yeah, I like Kelenic, but I don’t think he’s ready

Ben Clemens: No shame in that, he’s 22 and mashed in the second half of his rookie year

Bob: What more do you see the Cardinals doing? Lefty bat like Schwarber and a reliever like Joe Kelly?

GBS42: The Cardinals’ primary DH this year will be…???

Ben Clemens: I love the idea that the Cards are going to do more. That hasn’t really been their MO in recent years, though I do think they’ll get a reliever

Ben Clemens: I think their primary DH will be Lars Nootbaar

Greg: Are you of any research that looks at how players perform against pitchers/hitters of various skill levels?

Say you have a batter that is weirdly above average against ace type pitchers but weirdly below average against AAAA starters/relievers. Anything that has looked into that? I would assume it would be difficult due to small sample size, season to season variability, and the difficulty of arbitrary cutoffs for bucketing players into tiers, but it interests me nonetheless.

Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen anything on it, and yeah, the sample size issues would be extreme

Ben Clemens: I remember we looked into this on Chin Music one time in regards to Tyler O’Neill, who was very bad against good pitchers in 2021 (and great against bad pitchers)

Ben Clemens: In his previous career, he’d split the other wya

Appa Yip Yip: If there was a player with only 20% hard contact, but also only 20% soft contact, and 60% medium contact, what kind of a hitter would that look like and what position would you want to roster him at?

Ben Clemens: Really depends on his plate discipline

Ben Clemens: I’m generally not a fan of medium contact guys because medium contact isn’t as much better than soft contact as hard contact is over medium

Ben Clemens: If that makes sense

Ben Clemens: But if you’re David Fletcher? Sign me up

Ben Clemens: Particularly if you can play an up-the-middle position competently

Guest: Let’s say the lockout is still going on July 4. Would / could the players consider doing an all-star game (or even like an 8 team tournament), with a homerun derby/skills competition and sell it to a network to broadcast to replenish the strike fund? Or would the logistics be too difficult to work out

Ben Clemens: I’m guessing no

Ben Clemens: I think the logistics would be really difficult

Ben Clemens: But I think it would be cool for them to try something generally like that

Ben Clemens: Great idea!

Bart: When do you think the season will start?  How many days 1 62, 154, or 140?

Ben Clemens: out of these options, I’ll pick 62

Ben Clemens: Oh, that says 162, I see

Ben Clemens: How many games? I’ll say 154

Ben Clemens: I think they might scrunch the season in and push the playoffs ever so slightly back

Bobby Zimmerman: Does Dylan Cease approach ace level this year?

Ben Clemens: Nah

Ben Clemens: I really like what he’s done in changing the shape of his fastball

Ben Clemens: But I just don’t buy the command staying high enough to make it work at an ace level

Inaccessible Rail: Now that it seems like we’ll see the universal DH in 2022…assuming there is a season, what teams do you think will be helped by this the most? What teams will be hurt? And which NL contender has the greatest opportunity to improve because of this?

Ben Clemens: I think the Dodgers and Giants will both benefit quite a bit from this, just because they’re set up with plenty of overlapping depth

Ben Clemens: The Mets are probably up there as well, just because they have too many bats

Ben Clemens: Dan’s projections are with NL DH included, if you’re looking for a general idea

chilly: of the in house options u think tor will hand 2b to kevin smith?   he tore up the minors last yr and seems to have legit changed

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll hand it to Biggio, personally

Ben Clemens: and keep Espinal at third

Ben Clemens: I’d take Espinal over Smith, though of course they’ll probably just have all three up and shuffle them around

Baby Bear: Rumors abound as to the Cubs re-signing Rizzo or occasionally you’ll hear Schwarber or KB….but isn’t it possible that not only did Jed Hoyer want to rebuild and not pay for the past–but that he wanted a change in team chemistry and won’t take the aformentioned back even at a discount?

Ben Clemens: I mean, I guess? Rizzo and Schwarber aren’t exactly known as bad clubhouse pieces or anything, everyone loves Rizzo. It doesn’t feel like the kind of thing you’d ever get a straight answer to — but my guess is that if the team liked those guys enough to keep them around for five years while they had an incredible winning culture, Hoyer probably doesn’t secretly think they’re clubhouse Kryptonite

Tom: I hate to ask, but where will your time and attention turn in the event of an extended lock-out? Historical research, other sports, other interests entirely?

Ben Clemens: Personally? I think I’ll play more video games and board games, and probably get more into tennis, which is a non-baseball sport that I enjoy analyzing from time to time

Ben Clemens: I’d also just be really sad

Alex Menting: Seeing all of the articles on FanGraphs about VAA recently has me wondering, do you know of any under the radar type players whose VAA numbers could signal something we don’t see in traditional ways of measuring stuff? Thinking specifically of players like the Joe Ryan piece.

Ben Clemens: I’ve written about him a lot but I still think Logan Webb is underrated

dprat: What do you make of Nick Martinez? Fringy #5 on a contender or top 80 SP?

Ben Clemens: I’m closer to fringy #5

x2R: Chance of Albert Pujols to pass 700HR? with St. Louis?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it’s happening with St. Louis

Ben Clemens: If he wanted to do that for nostalgia he would have done it last year

Ben Clemens: Or rather, if there were mutual interest

Jake: i have first pick in a keeper league draft. Is there anyone who has a good case to be taken over Tatis?

Ben Clemens: Soto, Vlad

Ben Clemens: I don’t think positional scarcity matters that much when you’re talking about talents this good

vr: This is a logistic question, but do you know why fangraphs does not track quality starts?

Ben Clemens: We’ve discussed it, and don’t quote me on this, but I think there’s a non-zero chance we ad d it this year

clem bevins: who is your favorite not-that-good player in the mlb right now?

Ben Clemens: Ooh, excellent question

Ben Clemens: Kind of depends on what you mean by not-that-good, but I’ll draw the line at average

Ben Clemens: Luke Weaver?

Ben Clemens: Eh, I guess he might not get below the line

Ben Clemens: Brent Suter is in the same boat

Ben Clemens: Rich Hill is up there. David Fletcher

Ben Clemens: I don’t konw, I love all kinds of marginal players

Sad Mariner: If you had to bet, do the Mariners make the playoffs in 2022 or 2023?

Ben Clemens: I’ll take yes

Ben Clemens: The playoffs are certain to expand, and the Mariners are on the upswing. I don’t know if they’ll hit it this year, but if you give me two years and a 50/50 proposition, I’ll definitely take yes

Jake: JD Martinez or Nick Castellanos?

Ben Clemens: Castellanos but it’s close

Bob: What year do the Pirates become competitive again with a 12/14 team playoff?

Ben Clemens: 2028

Ben Clemens: That’s probably too harsh, but I just hate what they’re doing at the major league level, and I worry about teams just riding the rebuilding bicycle forever

dwills: Does Joe Ross have a career year? Assuming an agreement is reached that is

Ben Clemens: Hard for me to imagine he has a better season than 2016, so I’ll say no

Ben Clemens: But I do think that he should get plenty of chances to shine if he’s healthy

Ben Clemens: Given that he has a partial UCL tear, that doesn’t seem particularly likely, but look, the Nats will give him a shot to rebuild his value

Tiger: How worried are you about Mookie Betts? What kind of odds are you putting on him being mostly solid in terms of health in 2022?

Ben Clemens: I am not particularly worried about Mookie Betts. I would give him about the same odds of good health as any position player, which is to say I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get to 600 PA

Ben Clemens: He did look worn down at points last season, no argument there

Ben Clemens: But nothing about his 2021 season makes me think he’s lost a step

dprat: Points league: choose between a couple still young but disappointing (to date) outfielders: Benintendi or Austin Hays?

Ben Clemens: I’m not perfectly familiar with the scoring of points leagues, but I think I’ll take Benintendi. They seem pretty similar to me from looking at their existing stats, but Hays is getting a big ballpark downgrade this year

chilly: does larussa give enough at bats to vaughn to let him have a yr2 breakthru or u think hell basically rotate vaughn, sheets, engel

Ben Clemens: I think Vaughn and Sheets will get rotated a good deal and also spell people across the diamond. I don’t hate that approach from LaRussa, though

Ben Clemens: If you’re giving Vaughn everyday AB’s, you could say “Sheets is being blocked!” pretty easily

Ben Clemens: and vice versa

Ben Clemens: I think Engel is the weakest link but he’s also the best defender, so it’s understandable that he’ll get run as well

Grant: Have you ever been to a board game cafe? My wife and I discovered one near us with over 1400 games to pick from, and only $5 entry!

Ben Clemens: Yeah, there’s a cool one here in SF that my wife and I have been to a few times

Ben Clemens: It’s called Game Parlour, if you’re from the area

Ben Clemens: COVID obviously messed with the idea of board game cafes pretty heavily, but we went a few times pre-COVID and have been back once or twice

Ben Clemens: It’s a fun time, and also a good way to shop around for games if you aren’t sure what to get

171: Think there’s any realistic chance that the O’s sign someone like Rodon for a 1yr out of the lockout and flip him at the deadline?

Ben Clemens: Mmm…. no

Ben Clemens: I don’t think there’s much incentive on Rodon’s part to sign with the O’s

Jfast: Jake Meyers: FV 45 or FV 55?

Ben Clemens: Closer to 55 than 45 for me, I think the bat plays just enough to keep his solid glove out there

Ben Clemens: And that shape works for me generally — acceptable CF defender with league-average bat

Ryan: Are there any other announcer pet-peeves you had that got left on the cutting room floor?

Ben Clemens: record after scoring first is a big one

Ben Clemens: one that annoys me that I couldn’ think of a good way to study is the early-season ‘record when this pitcher is starting’

Ben Clemens: or when this catcher is catching

Ben Clemens: But the home run one and the ‘leading after x innings’ one are my two least favorites

Ben Clemens: There was one on the Marlins’ broadcast last year about record in games hwere the team hit a three-run bomb that was awful, but that’s so specific that I hope no one ever repeats it

Teddy: Is there a more professional hitter than Michael Brantley?

Ben Clemens: There is not

Ben Clemens: And if you play the “Michael Brantley — professional hitter” drinking game, good luck!

Ben Clemens: It’s the most used trope in baseball

Guest: Who is your favorite deep league breakout SP?

Ben Clemens: Luke Weaver!

Ben Clemens: But failing him, I’m interested in some Joe Ryan shares. Also Alek Manoah and my perennial pick Adrian Houser

Ryan: A few RSNs redesigned their scorebug to include a list of that plate appearance’s previous pitch types and velocities. Is there some other semi-niche thing that you would add to the scorebug if you could?

Ben Clemens: That’s a HUGE improvement and it’s really cool to see

Ben Clemens: I can’t think of which ones did it offhand, but hats off to them

Ben Clemens: I like the infield positioning scorebug — I think more broadcasts should use that

Ben Clemens: I do think that scorebugs are pretty good though. I just want the stats they show with players to be better — better batting stats, maybe my improved line score, that kind of thing

Nat: I think last week you said you were interested in rule changes that increase BABIP. how about 1. smaller gloves; 2. shorter infield grass 3. go all in on the bouncier but high-drag ball- faster in the infield but harder to hit homers?

Ben Clemens: I’m skeptical on the gloves just because I don’t really look forward to glove-measuring contests

Ben Clemens: Into the infield grass change for sure

Ben Clemens: I’m against 3 because uh, I don’t want the league to start doing more to mess with baseballs

Ben Clemens: It’s not like they have a good record of purposefully and openly changing baseball aerodynamics

Ben Clemens: So let’s leave that out of it

chilly: if toro takes 3b and runs with it what do u think his seasonal numbers will look like?

Ben Clemens: Something like Steamer’s projection, but over 600 PA; .257/.332/.424 with 20 homers, basically

Ben Clemens: That would be a really nice player for 23 innings of Kendall Graveman

Nats: What are the chances that the Nats extend Soto before he reaches free agency?

Ben Clemens: I think they’re low, but this is something that I don’t believe I have any edge in forecasting

Ben Clemens: People with front office connections, Soto connections, or just a general idea of how those negotiations tend to work would have a better idea than me

Guest: Any interest in holding Evan White in dynasty leagues?

Ben Clemens: Nope!

Estevão: roger maris was intentionally walked at least once in every single season of his career. with the exception of the 61 HR season, hitting in front of mantle will do that to you. fun fact

Ben Clemens: That’s pretty great

Bob: We’re missing regular season games, aren’t we?

Ben Clemens: I think iti’s more likely than not at this point

Ben Clemens: There’s still plenty of time for things to get resolved but the owners’ tactics just don’t look to me like something that will result in a quick solution

Ben Clemens: The players might just give their last and best this week and the owners could accept it

Ben Clemens: But when both sides are moving by $5 million per offer and they’re hundreds of millions apart

Ben Clemens: I don’t see much reason to think things will suddenly break their way

Ben Clemens: (their way = our way, oops)

Dodgers: Does Mitch White have a good shot at making the rotation for the Dodgers?

Ben Clemens: It depends what you mean by rotation, I think

Ben Clemens: If you mean getting 30 starts, nah

Ben Clemens: But I think the Dodgers are going to have 8-10 starters who get some run, and I think White will be a part of that

Ryan: Which is your least favorite out of DRS, UZR, and OAA? How much should I care about them compared to reputation or some other set of metrics?

Ben Clemens: Well, my favorite is OAA

Ben Clemens: DRS and UZR have weaknesses that don’t overlap too much, so a blend of those two is okay as well in a pinch

Ben Clemens: How much should you care about them compared to reputation? I think they’re more valuable than reputation at telling you who saved runs that year. I think reputation is about as good as they are at predicting who will be good next year (if you’re using one year of defensive stats, reputation might be better)

Ben Clemens: But I think the way OAA approaches it is fundamentally sound, which goes a long way

Ryan: Could you elaborate on what their weaknesses are?

Ben Clemens: UZR doesn’t use shifts

Ben Clemens: DRS has a weird BABIP adjustment that I don’t quite understand that makes every Rockies infielder a god and every outfielder a chump

Alex: Is a high sinker a groundball pitch or a flyball pitch? I was wondering based off your article a few weeks ago on pitchers who throw sinkers and 4 seam fastballs.

Ben Clemens: I’m looking into this, I meant to write a followup but I keep diving deeper into data and getting lost in my thoughts

Ben Clemens: but sinkers that are 2.75 feet or higher when they cross the plate have a 45% GB rate. Sinkers under 2.75 feet have a 58.9% GB rate. 4-seamers overall have a 34% GB rate

Ben Clemens: So sinkers definitely increase grounders…. but higher ones do so less

Jeff: Is a starter with 4 45-55 pitch types and good command more valuable to you than a starter with 2 65-70 pitch types and good command? All else equal, obv

Ben Clemens: Pretty contextual, because I’d want to know if I could teach them new pitches or if we could tinker with one of those 45-55 pitches to make it a 65 or so on

Ben Clemens: I’d err towards the two-pitch pitcher though, just because neither is going to be an ace, so I’m more comfortable making them a 5-and-dive type

Ben Clemens: at which point I think the varied arsenal matters less

My Vday Crush is…: Who you got between Altuve or Chisholm in a keeper league?

Ben Clemens: Jazz, please

Clubby Stapp: Does Gurriel, Kirk, and Pearson get the Guardians attention for a J Ram trade?

Ben Clemens: I think it does, though I doubt the Guardians want Gurriel

Ben Clemens: He earns money, they’re not really into that

Ben Clemens: Maybe the offset of J Ram’s salary would help, but it’s just really not their style

Zachary: Let’s say a deal gets signed on March 1st.  How quickly do you expect most or all of Correa, Freeman, Story, Bryant, Rodon to sign with teams?

Ben Clemens: I thikn it’ll be fast, like 2 weeks or less

Ben Clemens: Both players and teams will be heavily incentivized to figure this out quickly

Guest: Where do you see Akil Baddoo’s career trajectory going this year and beyond? Does he ever develop into a top 25 outfielder?

Ben Clemens: Top 25, nah

Ben Clemens: That’s a high bar to clear

Ben Clemens: I think he’s going to be a solid regular whose strikeouts keep him from breaking out

bill: is there any goofy discourse between FG staff regarding the comments sections

Ben Clemens: Generically yes, but only for really weird/goofy comments

Ben Clemens: There’s kind of a shared commiseration about trolls, but we have shockingly few trolls

Ben Clemens: You readers really are great

Nick: Will Fangraphs be bringing us an article titled “The Players’ Latest Offer Gets U.S. No Closer to Baseball Season”?  I’d appreciate coverage of both sides of the issue.

Ben Clemens: I find our coverage fair and objective

Ben Clemens: When both sides proposed changes to pre-arb compensation, I wrote it up and didn’t hesitate to mention the parts of the players’ proposal that I thought were unrealistic

Ben Clemens: The owners’ proposals thus far have been far more unrealistic

Ben Clemens: They’re proposing meaningfully worse economics than the existing system and they also proactively locked out the players

Ben Clemens: If you’re looking for someone to just automatically say that both sides are equally to blame, go elsewhere

Michael: Who do you like better and why, Kaprielian or Singer?

Ben Clemens: Singer for me by a good bit

Ben Clemens: I’m worried about Kaprelian’s durability, and I trust our scouting grades (and most outlets’ grades) on Singer’s command upside

Ben Clemens: I love good-command pitchers with a plus secondary, and I think he fits that mold better than Kaprelian

Ryan: If Meg Rowley started playing MLB baseball this season and put up 50 WAR in a pretty conventional way, would the combination of her playing career and work at Fangraphs get her into the Hall of Fame?

Ben Clemens: 50 WAR in one season? They’d have to!

Ben Clemens: 50 WAR overall? Probably also yes, because she’d be the first woman in MLB history and also have a borderline hall of fame career

Ben Clemens: Editing FanGraphs? I think that would not even help as a tiebreaker

Ben Clemens: Sorry Meg!

My Vday Crush is…: Interesting to hear you’re high on Houser. What upside are we missing?

Ben Clemens: I don’t actually know if we are

Ben Clemens: If you are, rather

Ben Clemens: What I like is that I know he can miss bats — he did in 2018 and again in 2020

Ben Clemens: And I know he can get grounders

Ben Clemens: And for a time it looked like he was trending in a good way command-wise

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure he’s goin to be able to put it all together but I just like betting on someone with a standout pitch like his sinker, and Milwaukee has done a great job helping their pitchers figure out a pitch mix that works

Jfast: Whose the best “good command pitcher with one plus secondary”guy? Jose Urquidy?

Ben Clemens: Maybe, or maybe Kyle Hendricks, or late-career Adam Wainwright

Ken: Would MLB consider a “Larry Bird Rights” arrangement where homegrown players can sign contracts that don’t count (to some degree) against the luxury tax? If so, would this be a good idea?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think it would really work in baseball, because of the way the CBT works

Ben Clemens: So few teams even approach it

Ben Clemens: That it would really just be a way for rich teams to pay less tax, which the owners are obviously against

Ben Clemens: The owners would prefer every team had to pay tax for every dollar they spend

Ben Clemens: And the players probably aren’t that interested, because giving a player on a bad team Bird Rights just doesn’t matter that much

Ben Clemens: Give Wander Franco a special exemption…. so what?

Ben Clemens: The Rays won’t have a payroll within 125 million dollars of the tax anyway

Ben Clemens: It works way better in a league like the NBA with a fairly narrow band of salaries across teams

Ben Clemens: But I like the idea of creative solutions like this

Ben Clemens: Just, I think this particular one doesn’t quite work with the way baseball salaries are structured

confused: can you quickly explain why the owners want every dollar taxed? kind of get it but note really.

Ben Clemens: Well, then there’s an incentive for every team to spend less

Ben Clemens: Let’s say that if you sign someone for 10 million dollars, you have to pay 10 million dollars into a pot split by every other team

Ben Clemens: an additional 10

Ben Clemens: well, that player is now less interesting to you

Ben Clemens: If that happens to everyone, then everyone is incentivized to be the smallest spender of all teams because every dollar you spend is negative marginal return due to that tax going to all other teams

Ben Clemens: Now there’s less competition for free agents because EVERY team has the same bind

Ben Clemens: so now every salary is less

Ben Clemens: In practice, I think it would just act like a reason not to sign free agents

Ben Clemens: But like, if your goal as ownership is to maximize net profit (revenue minus expenses)

Ben Clemens: having a shared penalty for spending is a great way to do that

Ben Clemens: revenue is zero-sum-ish, in that if every team spent 200 million dollars more on player salary, there would still be a similar number of wins and so on

Kyle Tucker: Am I here to stay? (Ie, .280,.350,.530+)?

Ben Clemens: boy, .530+ is a lot to ask

Ben Clemens: but I’m going to say yes anyway!

Ben Clemens: Love me some Kyle Tucker

Ryan: I heard Eno Sarris mention on a podcast that playing in an extreme environment like Coors hurts the team overall. My intuition would be that it would help as you could trade with teams in normal settings for players that perform better specifically in Coors with players you have that Coors hurts. Is it just because Coors is really weird and that throws people off too much to be useful?

Ben Clemens: I think it has a lot to do with what happens when you go on the road

Ben Clemens: But Coors has an added cost which is that it burns through pitchers at an incredible rate

Ben Clemens: and I think that makes it hard for the Rockies to win on the road as well

Ben Clemens: The more games you play in Coors, the more strain you put on your staff, and no one puts more strain on their staff than the Rockies

Bob: Has restricted free agency ever been considered, with some kind of “max contract” idea? Say after your pre-arb years you could solicit offers from other teams with holding team getting right to match, and the offer is capped in a way that the holding team should still be able to afford it even if the Rays or Pirates?

Ben Clemens: the devil would be in the details of the max offer capping here, but I think that restricted free agency systems would end up functioning reasonably similarly to arbitration but with more contract certainty for star

Ben Clemens: stars*

Jtf: Are you bullish on Jeremy Pena?

Ben Clemens: Heck yeah

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll be the opening day shortstop and excel

Appa Yip Yip: People who want an NBA style free agency ignore that in the NBA owners already won. Revenue is narrowly defined and the players get a specific percentage of that. Owners make all the real estate bucks they want and the dirty peons who make that money possible can’t touch it. When the amount you can earn is prescribes yeah you sign fast why wouldn’t you? Why wait?

Ben Clemens: I mostly agree with you hear — but also, the NBA has a pretty different revenue model than baseball

Ben Clemens: Far more central, they don’t have the same kind of local TV deals and attendance numbers that baseball teams do

will: Do you think MLB would benefit from more player empowerment and/or just interpersonal drama like the NBA has? I’ve really enjoyed following the NBA during the lockout

Ben Clemens: At the risk of oversimplifying: yes definitely

Ben Clemens: I love speculating on NBA players, it’s so dang fun

Ben Clemens: LeBron giggling while KD won’t pick James Harden? That’s gold

G4: Who is your favorite minor league signing of the offseason thus far? Someone who has a solid shot at making a difference for their new club.

Ben Clemens: Aaron Brooks with the Cardinals

Ben Clemens: LOVE that signing

Ben Clemens: he shoved in Korea, and his game suits the Cardinals’ defense-first team setup really well

Guest: Why doesn’t Ja Morant get more MVP consideration? The Grizz are 3rd in the West and he’s having an amazing year! Oh wait, wrong sport, got caught up in the NBA questions.

Ben Clemens: I’ll take it anyway

Ben Clemens: I don’t know

Ben Clemens: He deserves it

Ben Clemens: What a spectacular season

IV Thoughts: Enjoyed Jake’s article today on a potential Nathaniel Lowe breakout. Think he’s a breakout candidate for this year as well?

Ben Clemens: Yes

Ben Clemens: Really good article, I highly recommend reading it

Guest: Follow up to Ja Morant: How infuriating is it that the MEMPHIS Grizzlies are in the WEST? Good lord.

Ben Clemens: Less annoying than that they are the Grizzlies

Ben Clemens: As a Tennessee native, allow me to assure you: there are no grizzlies in Tennessee

Ben Clemens: Particularly not in flat-as-a-pancake West Tennessee

Ben Clemens: (there are black bears in East Tennessee, where I grew up)

Tacoby Bellsbury: If the bases were run clockwise instead of counterclockwise, who would benefit most?

Ben Clemens: Lefties, is my guess

Ben Clemens: Suddenly they could play 2b, ss, and 1b instead of just 1b

Ben Clemens: and also 3b, obv… that would be an either-handed position

Appa Yip Yip: Did you know you can eat beets raw and they’re crazy delicious? You can slice them thin and use them like crackers you just put like fruit and goat cheese and walnuts all over them.

Ben Clemens: I didn’t but it makes sense

Ben Clemens: Beets are delicious and crisp, I feel like you can make thin slices out of any crisp veggie like that and enjoy it

Didace: “they also proactively locked out the players” Let’s just say the owners didn’t do this and decided to just go forward with the season without an agreement. What are the chances that around Aug. 15 the players didn’t strike? I put it at zero. Implying the owners are the villains here is a canard. This is just a typical management/labor disagreement where each side is waiting for the other to blink. I’m not on anyone’s side, and of course I’d like baseball to start on time, but this will be over as soon as one side – owner or player – decides it is.

Ben Clemens: Everyone’s entitled to their opinion, and there’s no disproving a hypothetical

Ben Clemens: But the players played without a CBA in ’95 and ’96

Ben Clemens: so there’s precedent

Ben Clemens: honestly the players would probably be very happy to

Ben Clemens: there would be no CBT if the teams played without coming to a new agreement

Ben Clemens: why would they be against continuing on the same system? the new system the owners have proposed is significantly more onerous tax-wise

Guest: Congrats, you’ve been awarded an MLB team in Nashville. What do you name your new franchise?

Ben Clemens: Nashville Princes, if the hot chicken place would let me

Ben Clemens: Nashville AirBnB Regulations

Ben Clemens: I think I might try to connect something to country music if Princes is a no go

Inaccessible Rail: Wouldn’t the Royals object to the name Prines?

Ben Clemens: They probably would, but I think it’s a cool enough city shoutout and also different enough (depending on the logos and iconography) that I think it would be fine

Ben Clemens: Nashville Firebirds? another hot chicken reference, albeit a weak one

Teddy: Alex Bregman is a top __ player in MLB

Ben Clemens: This is a really tough one

Ben Clemens: I think I’m willing to bet on his 2021 being an injury aberration. I don’t think he’s about to replicate his 2019 season, but I’ll say top 15

Guest: I’m largely baffled by the optimism regarding getting most of the season played on time. There’s a chasm, which everybody acknowledges. There’s also an end game of the owners, which nobody has a firm grasp on. If they want something extreme, like a variation of a cap system, why are we thinking the two sides are going to agree any time soon?

Ben Clemens: I’m optimistic that we’ll get, eh, at least 140 games

Ben Clemens: The reason is that while I think the two sides are far apart and that a deal is not imminent, both sides have incentives to not sacrifice too much revenue

Ben Clemens: ‘the owners are all billionaires’ is a bit of an oversimplification, in that a lot of them derive a ton of their net worth from the valuation of their team and many of them are pretty levered as well, in team-related investments that don’t do well when there’s no baseball

Ben Clemens: So I think that the ownership group will be a bit fractured around playing hardball while costing itself money in the short term, because some teams are already hurting cashflow-wise from 2020

Ben Clemens: it’s all well and good to take a short-term loss for long-term gain, but if the long-term picture is already good for you (and it is for the owners, even if they “lose” the negotiation by going 85% of the way to the union’s side baseball teams will be great assets)

Ben Clemens: Playing chicken with your short-term money is risky

Ben Clemens: I think the reason this negotiation has felt so fraught is because it feels more dire for the players

Appa Yip Yip: Plus owning a team is not a good investment compared to the stock market

Ben Clemens: I was going to write this article, about how Manfred’s nonsense was nonsensical on that front

Ben Clemens: but everyone else did and the math was pretty obvious?

Ben Clemens: I’m certain that you could find a window over which stocks outperformed franchise ownership

Ben Clemens: that time period is not recent!

Teddy: Who is the worst current-day MLB player who would be an MVP-contender in, say, 1950?

Ben Clemens: David Fletcher

Ben Clemens: (I have no idea, I have a feeling that almost everyone would be at least average in 1950)

Guest: Let’s say Bobby Dalbec can reach 600 PA in 2022. Think he has a shot at 35 homers?

Ben Clemens: Yes, and I think there’s correlation here

Ben Clemens: If Dalbec gets 600 PA, I think it’s because he’s hitting well

Ben Clemens: and for him, that means homers

Ben Clemens: Alright, thanks everyone for chatting with me today, and Happy Valentines Day to those who celebrate. I’ll be having red meat for the first time this month as a treat — we are grinding our own beef and making a smash burger

Ben Clemens: Have a wonderful week, and I’ll talk to everyone soon — though not next Monday, that’s a holiday