Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/15/21
by Ben Clemens
March 15, 2021
| 2:00 |
: Hey everyone, and welcome to the chat.
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| 2:01 |
: I had a nice week off, which means that in addition to the normal baseball fare, if you want some hot takes on Lake Tahoe ski resorts, I’ve got up-to-date info
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| 2:01 |
: Let’s start off topic, b/c that’s the best way to do things
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| 2:01 |
: Please tell us you have a better movie appreciation tool than Kevin. Chat consensus was that he grades out as a 20.
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| 2:01 |
: Even an optimistic rating of myself would come in at about a 40
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| 2:02 |
: I’m the Vlad Guerrero Sr. of movies; I’ve pretty much never seen one I didn’t like
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| 2:02 |
: The only movie I’ve seen in the past year that I’d tell you not to watch was Uncut Gems, and people liked that one!
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| 2:02 |
: Good afternoon (from where I’m at). Do you think it’s possible MLB will consider limiting the amount of pitchers a team can carry on its roster in order to combat the flood of relievers we’re currently seeing? I’m not sure if they’re aware that the decline of the starting pitcher is a massive issue for the game right now.
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| 2:03 |
: For sure. They already implemented a maximum for 2020
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| 2:03 |
: Now, they had to roll it back b/c of the Covid-shortened schedule
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| 2:03 |
: But I thikn they’ll do it again starting in 2022
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| 2:04 |
: When I see examples cited of players having underperformed their xWOBA, it always seems like the players in question are left-handed hitters. Happy to be set straight on this, but is there any chance this stat is sort of biased in favor of lefties (especially those who continue to insist on banging one hoppers into the shift)?
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| 2:04 |
: I totally agree with you on this
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| 2:04 |
: I think that xwOBA is cool, but I’m pretty sure it doesn’t do what you want it to if you’re using it as an underperform/overperform thing
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| 2:04 |
: Because it tries to figure out what would have happened given a complete lack of context
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| 2:05 |
: And context does exist
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| 2:05 |
: Shifts definitely play a role
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| 2:05 |
: How many aces would you say there are in baseball right now? Not a number one starter, but an actual ace?
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| 2:06 |
: First, I’d definitely say I agree with you
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| 2:06 |
: Aces aren’t #1 starters
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| 2:06 |
: They’re aces
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| 2:07 |
: deGrom, Cole, Bieber, Scherzer, Darvish (for me), Bauer (fiiiiiiine), Giolito, maybe Walker Buehler?
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| 2:08 |
: Hot take! Darvish will be a top 5 pitcher this season.
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| 2:08 |
: I hope you’re right, he’s so fun to watch
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| 2:09 |
: Kyle Hendricks isn’t an ace? As a Cubs fans who has only recently come to appreciate his body of work, maybe the most underrated pitcher in baseball
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| 2:09 |
: He’s very likely the most underrated pitcher in baseball
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| 2:09 |
: And he’s not an ace
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| 2:09 |
: Nola is close.
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| 2:09 |
: Yeah, I’m not sure what to make of Nola but per our projections he’s close
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| 2:09 |
: With Britton hurt, do you think Greene makes sense for the Yankees?
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| 2:10 |
: Eh, maybe? I think they’re going to run with a lot of the young guys, and given the cost-cutting stuff they did witih Ottavino, they’re clearly trying to save money
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| 2:11 |
: So I think they’ll try not to sign anyone unless they absolutely have to
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| 2:11 |
: Is Andres Gimenez being undervalued now that it appears he’s the starter at SS? Salary cap price in an AL only standard 5×5 Roto league? Thanks?
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| 2:11 |
: So I’m going to say yes, and then promptly totally ignore the numerical part of your question b/c that’s a niche fantasy format I’ven ever played
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| 2:11 |
: salary cap + AL only
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| 2:11 |
: Hey everyone, and welcome to a Monday chat. Now that Spring Training games are on TV, it really feels like baseball again to me.
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| 2:11 |
: Hello there, my replacement
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| 2:11 |
: Am I one of the more under appreciated relievers of all time?
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| 2:11 |
: Hm, all time is a long time
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| 2:12 |
: Probably of the last 10 years, I don’t know who the most underrated relievers of all time are though
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| 2:12 |
: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I feel like I hear analysts noting that if someone’s four-seam has natural cut, it “runs into bats” and is a bad thing. On the other hand, pitchers may add a cut fastball and that’s a good thing. Is it that the natural cut’s movement is too slight to get the benefits of a cut fastball’s movement? Something else I’m missing?
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| 2:12 |
: Okay, so I actually thikn I have a decent way to explain this
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| 2:12 |
: Having a little cut doesn’t really do what you want it to
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| 2:12 |
: Because your motion is still predominantly 4-seam
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| 2:13 |
: so it just moves a little less than you want it to
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| 2:13 |
: Cut is essentially gyroscopic spin
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| 2:13 |
: So, less Magnus-related movement
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| 2:13 |
: And four-seamers, you want as much magnus movement as possible
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| 2:13 |
: When you can cut them all the way
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| 2:13 |
: Then it’s mostly gyro, and it moves more like a slider
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| 2:13 |
: But the in-between form is bad
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| 2:14 |
: That’s why Corbin Burnes junked his natural-cut 4-seamer to throw a cutter and a sinker
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| 2:14 |
: You don’t want to go halfway, then it just moves like a less-rise 4-seamer
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| 2:14 |
: Speaking of Cubs: what is this trash about not emphasizing radar gun readings and keeping it off broadcasts? Data is all and all is data gdammit
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| 2:14 |
: I hadn’t seen that, but uh, weird?
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| 2:14 |
: I know they are heavy on soft tossers but like, who cares
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| 2:15 |
: I don’t think Kyle Hendricks is intimidated when he sees a radar gun
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| 2:15 |
: Rockies like McMahon’s swing change. Hype or a 30 Hr’ breakout?
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| 2:15 |
: I’m gonna go 30 HR breakout here, b/c I just want McMahon to break out
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| 2:15 |
: But I’d totally ignore what they’re saying about his swing change, it’s hrad to imagine a more biased observer
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| 2:16 |
: I think Clayton Kershaw qualifies as an ace before Buehler. Why isn’t Kershaw an ace in your eyes?
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| 2:17 |
: I went back and forth on Kershaw vs. Buehler but basically I’m just worried about his velo a little bit
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| 2:17 |
: I’m sure I’ll regret it in a few weeks though
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| 2:18 |
: Kershaw is pretty good at being great
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| 2:18 |
: Maeda is an ace now.
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| 2:19 |
: Lance Lynn has been a top 3 SP for the past 2 plus years….
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| 2:19 |
: Maeda is closer than Lynn to me
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| 2:19 |
: And no Lance Lynn hasn’t been a top 3 SP for the last 2 plus years, c’mon
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| 2:19 |
: Maybe ex-post but whatever
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| 2:20 |
: Do you have a favorite, fairly simple, pasta recipe?
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| 2:20 |
: Moderately simple, rarely used, cacio e pepe recipe
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| 2:20 |
: Cook pasta with a little more salt than normal in the water and set aside some of the water
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| 2:21 |
: Meanwhile, grate a ton of parm (I think you’re supposed to use grana padano too but I’ve had success with just parm)
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| 2:21 |
: Crack some pepper (I mash it with the bottom of a pan, you can do whatever) and heat it up with oil in a pan
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| 2:22 |
: pour in some reserved pasta water, the cheese, and then coat the pasta
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| 2:22 |
: You can find exact proportions online but I just eyeball it
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| 2:22 |
: Flaherty?
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| 2:22 |
: Is Gallen close to that list of aces?
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| 2:22 |
: They’re both on the outskirts, maybe I’d toss them on with dominant 2020’s
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| 2:23 |
: Hey Ben, is there a way to sort FG leaderboards for different single seasons? Like if I wanted to see the highest wRC+ seasons since 1980, for example
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| 2:23 |
: There is
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| 2:23 |
: There’s a ‘split seasons’ checkbox to the left of multiple seasons
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| 2:23 |
: Hit that, and you should be good to go
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| 2:24 |
: The Pirates start the season off with a miraculous win streak and are N-0. At what N do you start to feel hopeful and excited and optimistic about their chances of making the playoffs?
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| 2:24 |
: This is a really cool question that I’m going to continue to ponder while I give you my snap answer
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| 2:24 |
: 15
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| 2:24 |
: Rodgers had me all excited and then he went and got dinged up already. Assuming he can get and stay healthy, do you think we see a legit breakout this year?
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| 2:25 |
: Now this one I can wholeheartedly endorse. Brendan Rodgers is one of my constsant breakout picks
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| 2:26 |
: And I’m always wrong, largely b/c of PT
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| 2:26 |
: So I’m in if he can stay healthy all year
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| 2:26 |
: How long would it take Luis Guillorme to learn how to catch? The bat is probably a little light at 3b and I would think his hands would play well behind the plate
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| 2:26 |
: Too long, I think, sadly
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| 2:26 |
: He’s already 26, and catchers take a notoriously long time to develop
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| 2:27 |
: Last spot in the pitching rotation for the Indians has been a battle between Cal Quantrill Jr, Logan Allen and Adam Plutko.. Who do you see taking that fifth spot?.. Is McStix (McKenzie) in danger of starting 2021 in MiLB?..
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| 2:27 |
: I think that McKenzie probably won’t start in the minors b/c of the delayed start to the season, but I could see them skipping some of his starts for maintenance reasons
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| 2:28 |
: I’ve been into Quantrill in general, haven’t been following their spring stuff specifically, but I’ll still say him
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| 2:28 |
: Chances Lux gets 500 AB’s this year?
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| 2:28 |
: Not high. Maybe 20%? I think he plays a lot of the season in the majors but they’ll platoon him decently often
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| 2:28 |
: Are there any spring training stats that you pay attention too, or is it all mostly noise?
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| 2:29 |
: It’s mostly noise. That said, I care about pitcher velocity a lot, and follow Jeff Zimmerman’s velocity tracker
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| 2:29 |
: That thing is super useful, let me grab a link
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| 2:29 |
: Is there anyone having a slow spring that actually has you worried? Same question but flipped, anyone having a good spring you actually think is meaningful?
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| 2:30 |
: In that vein, I’m very interested in Alex Reyes. Throwing hard and with new mechanics (more Driveline short-arm-y than before)
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| 2:30 |
: Casey Mize has been throwing harder, also a good sign
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| 2:31 |
: Also curious about Bumgarner, looks like he had an uptick
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| 2:31 |
: in a 10 team dynasty, I am in need of pitching help. What are the ceilings for John Means, Gausman, and Musgrove (those 3 are the top available rotation pitchers right now), this year, and maybe beyond this year?
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| 2:32 |
: I think Musgrove’s ceiling is highest, and it’s like legit #2 starter ceiling
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| 2:32 |
: That said, I’m not 100% that I’m right on Means
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| 2:32 |
: He is a very different pitcher than he was when he came up and it’s hard to wrap my brain around it
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| 2:32 |
: Combined 2019 and 2020 WAR Leader SP, Degrom 9.6, Cole, 8.8, Bieber 8.8, Lynn 8.0, of note Bauer 5.8, Darvish 5.5
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| 2:33 |
: But I thought you said top 3!
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| 2:33 |
: Also, yeah, there are more things than just ‘how much war was produced in this year’ to being an ace
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| 2:33 |
: Who does Roster Resource use for their projections, line ups, rotations and closers?
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| 2:33 |
: For projections, it pulls in Depth Charts projections, which are a 50/50 blend of Steamer and ZiPS
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| 2:33 |
: For everything else, that’s Jason Martinez tirelessly watching freaking everything
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| 2:34 |
: And putting them together
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| 2:34 |
: It’s a staggering amount of work
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| 2:34 |
: MATT. DAMON.
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| 2:34 |
: My friend, I’m sorry that KG slandered your performances
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| 2:34 |
: I think you were great in Rounders
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| 2:34 |
: Robbie Ray has been throwing strikes. It’s 8 innings, but if he can consistently find the zone what kind of season could he be looking at?
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| 2:34 |
: I’m bought in
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| 2:34 |
: Or, well
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| 2:35 |
: I think he can be the Robbie Ray of old again
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| 2:35 |
: Mid-to-upper 3’s ERA, lower FIP, gets hit hard
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| 2:35 |
: Lots of strikeouts but trouble with walks
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| 2:36 |
: That’d be a great outcome for Toronto, a solid number two to Ryu’s number one
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| 2:36 |
: Ben, you are right, you can also add in Lynn pitching at that time in a bad ballpark for SP and a terrible defense behind him and in the AL…
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| 2:36 |
: Last one on this
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| 2:36 |
: FIP adjusts for park
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| 2:36 |
: And doens’t consider defense
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| 2:36 |
: And you’re now just trying to double count them
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| 2:36 |
: Ben, Fangraphs currently has Adrian Morejon slotted as the Padres #5 in their depth chart rotation. What’s your outlook on him over the next few years – SP, RP, swingman and do you think he is any good (floor/ceiling)? Thanks
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| 2:36 |
: I think he’s good, yeah
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| 2:37 |
: I’m not great at analyzing prospect arms, to be honest
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| 2:37 |
: I feel a lot more confident on hitters
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| 2:37 |
: I think he’s likely to stick as a starter though
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| 2:38 |
: He has a bunch of different pitches, which can’t hurt
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| 2:39 |
: Walks are just always going to be aconcern given his minor league record and the book on him, but walks being a problem is hardly a unique thing
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| 2:39 |
: Matt Damon might have been good in Rounders, but John Malkovich’s “Russian” accent is an albatross dragging that movie’s overall quality down.
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| 2:39 |
: Oh, hard disagree
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| 2:40 |
: I think that his patently ridiculous Russian accent is a selling point
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| 2:40 |
: He sounds like me trying to do a Russian accent and it just consistently makes me happy
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| 2:40 |
: If I had a dollar for every time I said “All day he check check check”
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| 2:40 |
: Does Casey Mize start in AAA this year due to his lack of command?
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| 2:40 |
: I think so, partially b/c it gets the Tigers an extra year and partially b/c they’d like to see him work on his command for realsies
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| 2:41 |
: But I’m still buying
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| 2:41 |
: Speaking of the Mets catching situation, I saw an article last week assigning grades to FA contracts, and they gave the McCann contract a D. That’s a little harsh, isn’t it? The AAV value is more or less right in line with what a lot of people were predicting. 4 years seems long, but it’s not that long, and it’s unlikely they would have offered it unless at least one other team was offering 3. And really, there’s a pretty decent chance that he produces more than $40M worth of value over 4 years.
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| 2:41 |
: Yeah, I think a D is kinda harsh
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| 2:41 |
: It’s a C contract to me
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| 2:41 |
: Maybe C+
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| 2:41 |
: I think the reasoning behind people not liking it is that they could have gone after Realmuto instead, but that’s unfair to McCann
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| 2:42 |
: Ahhhh, Spring. The Snow melts, the robins return, it’s time to file taxes…. and every expert predicts the Mets will be better than they turn out to be.
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| 2:43 |
: Indeed! That said, I think they’ll be good this year!
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| 2:43 |
: I’m hearing Vaughn has a chance to start out of camp for WSox. I think they send him down for 2 week? You?
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| 2:43 |
: I actually think there’s a decent chance they don’t bother
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| 2:44 |
: I want to be clear, I have no inside information whatsoever
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| 2:44 |
: But the downside here is basically that you swap a year of Super 2 arb for a free agency year
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| 2:44 |
: And for someone of Vaughn’s age and production type, like, hwo cares?
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| 2:45 |
: Just bring him up if he’s ready
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| 2:45 |
: Should I be regretting my decision to sign with the Padres given they have a lot of depth and its not guaranteed I will see every day at bat?
Side news, I guess the level is vastly different between the KBO and MLB given by my struggles in spring training…. |
| 2:45 |
: Well, I wouldn’t read too much into the spring training struggles, personally.
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| 2:45 |
: The depth thing was always kinda worrisome, but not more now than it was before ST
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| 2:47 |
: That said, I haven’t watched much of the Padres in ST. If his approach is terrible, that’s not great
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| 2:47 |
: is the 2021 NL DH at 0 percent chance now?
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| 2:47 |
: Sadly I think so
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| 2:47 |
: Been a patient Freddy Peralta fan for several years. This the year? 5×5 Roto keeper league and can keep this year at $10; 2 yrs at $15; or throw him back in the pool and hope I can land him in that $10 – 15 range and gain 3 years control. Thought?
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| 2:47 |
: I’d probably risk sending him back
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| 2:47 |
: I too am a Peralta admirer, love being greedy
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| 2:47 |
: Cardinals seem to be having a pretty miserable ST so far–but O’Neill is playing well and Carlson is not. Should Carlson worry about PT?
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| 2:48 |
: He should, but not b/c of ST, it just isn’t that big of a deal
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| 2:48 |
: He’s also hitting the ball reasonably hard, which is a good sign
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| 2:48 |
: As I quickly peruse the savant leaderboards here
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| 2:49 |
: He’s hit a ball harder than O’Neill has this ST, for example, which sounds kinda weird
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| 2:49 |
: Is it more likely Vladito hits 40 homers or hits .320?
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| 2:50 |
: .320, let’s say
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| 2:50 |
: Vlad is weird b/c I think a lot of the ‘he’s gonna go nova’ hype is around him getting the ball in the air more
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| 2:50 |
: When he does, he hits the crap out of it
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| 2:51 |
: But I think betting against a swing change is usually the safe move
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| 2:51 |
: “Iye vill splyash ze pyot in my clyub venever ze f*** Iye plyeaze” in Rounders is one of the greatest silly lines in any movie ever. Bad accents are fun!
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| 2:51 |
: Another great one
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| 2:51 |
: “And you von’t be puuuuushed ahhhround’
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| 2:51 |
: It’s just all so good
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| 2:51 |
: A bit new to baseball, (but loving this sport!). Can you provide a quick/brief explanation regarding SPs? for fantasy or in RL. I see experts and articles and in general discuss “aces”. Some of the questions above also asked about “Aces”, but you responded that an “Ace” is not always #1 starter. But wouldn’t John Means or Gausman or… Flagherty be “aces” for their respective teams? Straussberg would be an “ace” if healthy, but he’s also #2 no? What do industry experts or teams use to gauge if a pitcher is ace quality? the Innings pitched? SO potential? durability?
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| 2:51 |
: Great question, and I’m going to be honest with you, I don’t have a great answer
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| 2:52 |
: In my head (and I can’t claim to speak for anyone else), there are 30 #1 starters, the best starter on each team
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| 2:52 |
: An ace is something more ephemeral — it’s one of the elite pitchers who you can pencil into the Cy Young top 5 before the year
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| 2:52 |
: And be shocked if you’re wrong
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| 2:52 |
: Maybe top 5 is wrong, but the discussion
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| 2:53 |
: Teams can have two aces… I’d put Strasburg on there if he were healthy
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| 2:53 |
: I think it’s strikeouts, IP, durability, the feeling of ‘oh this guy is unhittable’
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| 2:53 |
: But again, that’s for me. If your definition of an ace is a team’s #1 pitcher, I mean, it’s subjective! we’re both right
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| 2:53 |
: Wouldn’t the White Sox’ decision to bring up Robert on opening day inform what they’ll do with Vaughn?
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| 2:53 |
: Yes, another sign pointing to yes
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| 2:54 |
: Arozarena or the field for AL ROY? And if Kelenic breaks camp with the Mariners is he the favorite?
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| 2:54 |
: Easy field here
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| 2:54 |
: I love Randy, but baseball is hard and the field is big
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| 2:54 |
: If you had to pick one team to win the 2024 NL Central, who would it be?
|
| 2:54 |
: I think I’d take the Cardinals by a hair over the Brewers
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| 2:54 |
: Here’s my thinking
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| 2:55 |
: The Pirates are always going to be held back by ownership
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| 2:55 |
: Whatever you think of their FO, it’s hard to win if your owner doesn’t want to
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| 2:55 |
: The Cubs look like they’re going to blow it up after this year, so not enough time for a turnaround
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| 2:55 |
: The Reds are doing a weird semi-blowup right now
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| 2:56 |
: That means the smart money is on the two teams who aren’t doing that, and I just like St. Louis’s financial might a bit better
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| 2:56 |
: Also, as a quick bow on the Arozarena comment, I looked up the futures odds, and he’s +350, so 3.5 to 1
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| 2:57 |
: Feeling good about the field
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| 2:57 |
: Is it smart to be worried about Vlad? I’ve been watching him for two years now and it feels like he might just be hitting 105 mph grounders forever
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| 2:57 |
: Smart? No idea. Understandable and relatable? Absolutely
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| 2:57 |
: That’s the fear, that he never elevates it
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| 2:57 |
: and the early results are not incredible
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| 2:57 |
: Would losing McGuire on waivers to clear the way for Kirk really end up mattering to the Jays if you get the better bat in the lineup to start the season?
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| 2:57 |
: I do think it would matter.
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| 2:58 |
: One: we can’t know the future, McGuire could be the best of the three in two years
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| 2:58 |
: Two: There’s probably value to be had from him at some point, even if you resign yourself to trading him
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| 2:58 |
: Okay, basically just those two, I thought I was gonna throw another one in
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| 2:59 |
: There are tradeoffs if it means less AB’s for Kirk
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| 2:59 |
: But I think that a few weeks of fewer AB’s is a reasonable price to pay for the chance to flip McGuire for something later, personally
|
| 2:59 |
: Back to Peralta, I was greedy as well and didn’t keep him. So how high would you go to secure his services? I’m hoping to get him in the $10 range, but too many more outings like his last will likely push that higher.
|
| 3:00 |
: These contextual questions are hard b/c it matters how your league looks and so on, but I’d probably go up to $13 or so? Don’t miss a player you’re big on for a buck
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| 3:00 |
: Cookies: crunchy or chewy?
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| 3:00 |
: Here’s where I lose half my readers 🙁
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| 3:00 |
: I think the type of cookie matters a lot
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| 3:00 |
: If you’ve had Tate’s Bakeshop cookies, those are ideal crunchy ones
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| 3:01 |
: And I really enjoy that kind of cookie, that’s probably actually my favorite
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| 3:01 |
: Fresh-baked cookies, on the other hand, I usually like those chewy
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| 3:01 |
: Tate’s has just figured out a good way to have their cookies be desirable even after being shipped
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| 3:02 |
: I think the key draw of crunchiness is that it holds up well, and the key draw of chewiness is if you can have them hot and gooey
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| 3:02 |
: Does Tejay Antone start or do the long-relief thing this year, mostly?
|
| 3:02 |
: I think mostly long-relief thing, but long-term I bet starting
|
| 3:02 |
: What if baseball let you care lots of relievers but if you bring one in mid inning the next inning starts with an intentional walk. I like relievers in baseball it’s the pitching changes that are lame.
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| 3:03 |
: That’s a funky one, I don’t know though
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| 3:03 |
: Bringing in a reliever mid-inning to spell your starter is hardly a dramatic strategy
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| 3:03 |
: Now, a second mid-inning replacement, boo
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| 3:03 |
: What’s your take on the Marlins’ 2021 playoff chances? I would think there are different opinions amongst writers, more so than any other team.
|
| 3:03 |
: I’m not as pessimistic as our playoff odds (1.2%), but I’m pessimistic
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| 3:03 |
: I think they’re going to need three or four breakouts to contend, the division is really stacked and they have a lot of holes
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| 3:04 |
: Basically if the pitching staff goes nuclear, I can see it
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| 3:04 |
: But short of that, it’s not happening
|
| 3:04 |
: What are your thoughts on Joey Gallo going forward? I was kind of all in following 2019, and I just think his profile is really fun and interesting
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| 3:04 |
: I think he’s one of those players who will be more interesting than good
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| 3:04 |
: Not that he isn’t good
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| 3:05 |
: But the sheer oddity of the profile is doing a lot of work in terms of making me think about him
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| 3:05 |
: Do the giants have a chance to contend in next 2-3 years considering what dodgers and padres have built? Giants have tons of money coming off books but an entire infield and rotation needing replacement.
|
| 3:05 |
: It’s going to be tough, like you said largely because of the division
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| 3:06 |
: I like what they’ve done in the Zaidi era in terms of sorting through a pile of players to find and keep the interesting ones, but it’s an uphill climb to fight those two powers
|
| 3:06 |
: That said, contending is different than automatically winning, and if they reinvest the money coming off the books, that gets them to Wild Card contention at the very least
|
| 3:06 |
: Is there any market whatsoever for Inciarte that doesn’t need sweetening?
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| 3:07 |
: If you want more than a PTBNL, I think no
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| 3:07 |
: Or ‘cash considerations’ that come out to 50 bucks and a firm handshake
|
| 3:08 |
: Are we really going to let the Orioles enter 2021 with Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey in their rotation? Is there nobody else they can plug in there?
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| 3:08 |
: I like the idea of seeing what Felix can do
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| 3:08 |
: Now, is the answer likely nothing? Yes it is
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| 3:08 |
: But if there’s a place for him to try a comeback, it’s a team like Baltimore
|
| 3:09 |
: Chris Rodriguez – guy or GUY? Best guess at an ETA, knowing you’re not the resident prospect dude?
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| 3:09 |
: Guy, as a general rule if you have a back injury I need to see a little more to be in
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| 3:09 |
: Back injuries terrify me
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| 3:10 |
: Picking nits, but the only arguments I see excluding Kershaw as an ace are he won’t throw 200+ innings and he doesn’t throw 95. Dude just put up 2.4 ERA/3.2 FIP/.87 WHIP/26% K-BB through 89 IP including playoffs. He seems to be compared to Peak Kershaw instead of the other MLB pitchers. I’d be more worried about Scherzer.
|
| 3:10 |
: This is a fair counterargument, and I think I’m maybe a little too low on Kershaw b/c of his injury struggles, but those were at their worst like 4 years ago now
|
| 3:10 |
: The more I think about my ace listing the more I want Kershaw to be on it
|
| 3:10 |
: There’s a swagger component, too, and he has that
|
| 3:11 |
: where will be big 2021 free agent shortstops be in a year’s time?
|
| 3:12 |
: I think Lindor stays with the Mets, Correa ends up on the Yankees (I dunno, just guessing), and Seager stays on the Dodgers. That leaves Story (no clue) and Javy (also no clue)
|
| 3:12 |
: This is absolutely not somehting I’m good at, though
|
| 3:12 |
: “Ben Clemens – Indeed! That said, I think they’ll be good this year!” All the experts say that every year, too.
|
| 3:13 |
: Look the Mets have Lucy-with-the-football’ed me plenty in the past
|
| 3:13 |
: And I don’t have a strong reason why they won’t again
|
| 3:13 |
: But I am going to stick with my method, they look good, I should pick them to be good
|
| 3:13 |
: Aglio e olio is a strong contender for best, simplest pasta dish. So good the Beastie Boys had an EP named after it.
|
| 3:13 |
: Ooh, I missed this earlier
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| 3:13 |
: It is indeed delicious
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| 3:13 |
: Honestly pasta is just great
|
| 3:14 |
: Are the Pirates going to give Anthony Alford a real shot at regular ABs?
|
| 3:14 |
: They really should, and indications are that they will
|
| 3:14 |
: I don’t know if he’s going to work out, but he’s the kind of person you should be testing out if you’re the Pirates
|
| 3:14 |
: This is the exact upside of being terrible
|
| 3:15 |
: Were you worried for Hicks’ arm after/during that battle with Guillorme?
|
| 3:15 |
: Not during, b/c I didn’t see it live
|
| 3:15 |
: After, a little bit, but I’m just always going to be worried about Hicks’s arm
|
| 3:15 |
: He’s a delight and a fragile one
|
| 3:15 |
: Two similar skills set players who’s a better this year…Solak or Edman?
|
| 3:16 |
: I’ll take Edman, but Solak in fantasy b/c I feel better about the PT stability
|
| 3:16 |
: I could see Shildt doing weird things with Carpenter at 2B
|
| 3:16 |
: So Edman as a real-life value
|
| 3:16 |
: Solak for your fake teams
|
| 3:17 |
: How many AB’s does Gardner steal from Frazier? Do you see Frazier getting 500-500AB
|
| 3:17 |
: Hm, maybe 400?
|
| 3:17 |
: A big part of pulling off a successful rebuild is giving dudes like Alford playing time and seeing one or more of them succeed. Also Alford is possibly the nicest dude on the planet.
|
| 3:17 |
: Yeah, this
|
| 3:17 |
: Do what the Giants did with Yaz
|
| 3:19 |
: Alright, on that note, I’m going to call it a day early today. It’s still Spring Training for me too (read: I got back from vacation after a long drive yday and I’m feeling a little tired)
|
| 3:19 |
: Thanks everyone for hanging out with me today, and I hope you’re as excited for the start of the season as I am
|
Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.