Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/15/21

March 15, 2021

2:00	Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, and welcome to the chat.

2:01	Ben Clemens: I had a nice week off, which means that in addition to the normal baseball fare, if you want some hot takes on Lake Tahoe ski resorts, I’ve got up-to-date info

2:01	Ben Clemens: Let’s start off topic, b/c that’s the best way to do things

2:01	BringBackDeSpanielHair: Please tell us you have a better movie appreciation tool than Kevin. Chat consensus was that he grades out as a 20.

2:01	Ben Clemens: Even an optimistic rating of myself would come in at about a 40

2:02	Ben Clemens: I’m the Vlad Guerrero Sr. of movies; I’ve pretty much never seen one I didn’t like

2:02	Ben Clemens: The only movie I’ve seen in the past year that I’d tell you not to watch was Uncut Gems, and people liked that one!

2:02

DeGenZGZ: Good afternoon (from where I’m at). Do you think it’s possible MLB will consider limiting the amount of pitchers a team can carry on its roster in order to combat the flood of relievers we’re currently seeing? I’m not sure if they’re aware that the decline of the starting pitcher is a massive issue for the game right now.

2:03	Ben Clemens: For sure. They already implemented a maximum for 2020

2:03	Ben Clemens: Now, they had to roll it back b/c of the Covid-shortened schedule

2:03	Ben Clemens: But I thikn they’ll do it again starting in 2022

2:04

Eric: When I see examples cited of players having underperformed their xWOBA, it always seems like the players in question are left-handed hitters. Happy to be set straight on this, but is there any chance this stat is sort of biased in favor of lefties (especially those who continue to insist on banging one hoppers into the shift)?

2:04	Ben Clemens: I totally agree with you on this

2:04	Ben Clemens: I think that xwOBA is cool, but I’m pretty sure it doesn’t do what you want it to if you’re using it as an underperform/overperform thing

2:04	Ben Clemens: Because it tries to figure out what would have happened given a complete lack of context

2:05	Ben Clemens: And context does exist

2:05	Ben Clemens: Shifts definitely play a role

2:05	Guest: How many aces would you say there are in baseball right now? Not a number one starter, but an actual ace?

2:06	Ben Clemens: First, I’d definitely say I agree with you

2:06	Ben Clemens: Aces aren’t #1 starters

2:06	Ben Clemens: They’re aces

2:07	Ben Clemens: deGrom, Cole, Bieber, Scherzer, Darvish (for me), Bauer (fiiiiiiine), Giolito, maybe Walker Buehler?

2:08	BringBackDeSpanielHair: Hot take! Darvish will be a top 5 pitcher this season.

2:08	Ben Clemens: I hope you’re right, he’s so fun to watch

2:09	Jeff: Kyle Hendricks isn’t an ace? As a Cubs fans who has only recently come to appreciate his body of work, maybe the most underrated pitcher in baseball

2:09	Ben Clemens: He’s very likely the most underrated pitcher in baseball

2:09	Ben Clemens: And he’s not an ace

2:09	Guest: Nola is close.

2:09	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m not sure what to make of Nola but per our projections he’s close

2:09	Fan: With Britton hurt, do you think Greene makes sense for the Yankees?

2:10	Ben Clemens: Eh, maybe? I think they’re going to run with a lot of the young guys, and given the cost-cutting stuff they did witih Ottavino, they’re clearly trying to save money

2:11	Ben Clemens: So I think they’ll try not to sign anyone unless they absolutely have to

2:11	Nittanychris: Is Andres Gimenez being undervalued now that it appears he’s the starter at SS? Salary cap price in an AL only standard 5×5 Roto league? Thanks?

2:11	Ben Clemens: So I’m going to say yes, and then promptly totally ignore the numerical part of your question b/c that’s a niche fantasy format I’ven ever played

2:11	Ben Clemens: salary cap + AL only

2:11	Ben Clemens Replacement: Hey everyone, and welcome to a Monday chat. Now that Spring Training games are on TV, it really feels like baseball again to me.

2:11	Ben Clemens: Hello there, my replacement

2:11	Tyler Clippard: Am I one of the more under appreciated relievers of all time?

2:11	Ben Clemens: Hm, all time is a long time

2:12	Ben Clemens: Probably of the last 10 years, I don’t know who the most underrated relievers of all time are though

2:12

Cueto’s Shimmy: Correct me if I’m wrong, but I feel like I hear analysts noting that if someone’s four-seam has natural cut, it “runs into bats” and is a bad thing. On the other hand, pitchers may add a cut fastball and that’s a good thing. Is it that the natural cut’s movement is too slight to get the benefits of a cut fastball’s movement? Something else I’m missing?

2:12	Ben Clemens: Okay, so I actually thikn I have a decent way to explain this

2:12	Ben Clemens: Having a little cut doesn’t really do what you want it to

2:12	Ben Clemens: Because your motion is still predominantly 4-seam

2:13	Ben Clemens: so it just moves a little less than you want it to

2:13	Ben Clemens: Cut is essentially gyroscopic spin

2:13	Ben Clemens: So, less Magnus-related movement

2:13	Ben Clemens: And four-seamers, you want as much magnus movement as possible

2:13	Ben Clemens: When you can cut them all the way

2:13	Ben Clemens: Then it’s mostly gyro, and it moves more like a slider

2:13	Ben Clemens: But the in-between form is bad

2:14	Ben Clemens: That’s why Corbin Burnes junked his natural-cut 4-seamer to throw a cutter and a sinker

2:14	Ben Clemens: You don’t want to go halfway, then it just moves like a less-rise 4-seamer

2:14	Jeff: Speaking of Cubs: what is this trash about not emphasizing radar gun readings and keeping it off broadcasts? Data is all and all is data gdammit

2:14	Ben Clemens: I hadn’t seen that, but uh, weird?

2:14	Ben Clemens: I know they are heavy on soft tossers but like, who cares

2:15	Ben Clemens: I don’t think Kyle Hendricks is intimidated when he sees a radar gun

2:15	I am the walrus: Rockies like McMahon’s swing change. Hype or a 30 Hr’ breakout?

2:15	Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go 30 HR breakout here, b/c I just want McMahon to break out

2:15	Ben Clemens: But I’d totally ignore what they’re saying about his swing change, it’s hrad to imagine a more biased observer

2:16	Pocket Aces: I think Clayton Kershaw qualifies as an ace before Buehler. Why isn’t Kershaw an ace in your eyes?

2:17	Ben Clemens: I went back and forth on Kershaw vs. Buehler but basically I’m just worried about his velo a little bit

2:17	Ben Clemens: I’m sure I’ll regret it in a few weeks though

2:18	Ben Clemens: Kershaw is pretty good at being great

2:18	Chip: Maeda is an ace now.

2:19	Brad: Lance Lynn has been a top 3 SP for the past 2 plus years….

2:19	Ben Clemens: Maeda is closer than Lynn to me

2:19	Ben Clemens: And no Lance Lynn hasn’t been a top 3 SP for the last 2 plus years, c’mon

2:19	Ben Clemens: Maybe ex-post but whatever

2:20	Moose_Bolton: Do you have a favorite, fairly simple, pasta recipe?

2:20	Ben Clemens: Moderately simple, rarely used, cacio e pepe recipe

2:20	Ben Clemens: Cook pasta with a little more salt than normal in the water and set aside some of the water

2:21	Ben Clemens: Meanwhile, grate a ton of parm (I think you’re supposed to use grana padano too but I’ve had success with just parm)

2:21	Ben Clemens: Crack some pepper (I mash it with the bottom of a pan, you can do whatever) and heat it up with oil in a pan

2:22	Ben Clemens: pour in some reserved pasta water, the cheese, and then coat the pasta

2:22	Ben Clemens: You can find exact proportions online but I just eyeball it

2:22	Ace: Flaherty?

2:22	Gibby: Is Gallen close to that list of aces?

2:22	Ben Clemens: They’re both on the outskirts, maybe I’d toss them on with dominant 2020’s

2:23	Sam: Hey Ben, is there a way to sort FG leaderboards for different single seasons? Like if I wanted to see the highest wRC+ seasons since 1980, for example

2:23	Ben Clemens: There is

2:23	Ben Clemens: There’s a ‘split seasons’ checkbox to the left of multiple seasons

2:23	Ben Clemens: Hit that, and you should be good to go

2:24	Greg: The Pirates start the season off with a miraculous win streak and are N-0. At what N do you start to feel hopeful and excited and optimistic about their chances of making the playoffs?

2:24	Ben Clemens: This is a really cool question that I’m going to continue to ponder while I give you my snap answer

2:24	Ben Clemens: 15

2:24	Kate: Rodgers had me all excited and then he went and got dinged up already. Assuming he can get and stay healthy, do you think we see a legit breakout this year?

2:25	Ben Clemens: Now this one I can wholeheartedly endorse. Brendan Rodgers is one of my constsant breakout picks

2:26	Ben Clemens: And I’m always wrong, largely b/c of PT

2:26	Ben Clemens: So I’m in if he can stay healthy all year

2:26	Mets fan: How long would it take Luis Guillorme to learn how to catch? The bat is probably a little light at 3b and I would think his hands would play well behind the plate

2:26	Ben Clemens: Too long, I think, sadly

2:26	Ben Clemens: He’s already 26, and catchers take a notoriously long time to develop

2:27	MoonBeamMcSwine: Last spot in the pitching rotation for the Indians has been a battle between Cal Quantrill Jr, Logan Allen and Adam Plutko.. Who do you see taking that fifth spot?.. Is McStix (McKenzie) in danger of starting 2021 in MiLB?..

2:27	Ben Clemens: I think that McKenzie probably won’t start in the minors b/c of the delayed start to the season, but I could see them skipping some of his starts for maintenance reasons

2:28	Ben Clemens: I’ve been into Quantrill in general, haven’t been following their spring stuff specifically, but I’ll still say him

2:28	I am the walrus: Chances Lux gets 500 AB’s this year?

2:28	Ben Clemens: Not high. Maybe 20%? I think he plays a lot of the season in the majors but they’ll platoon him decently often

2:28	DJ: Are there any spring training stats that you pay attention too, or is it all mostly noise?

2:29	Ben Clemens: It’s mostly noise. That said, I care about pitcher velocity a lot, and follow Jeff Zimmerman’s velocity tracker

2:29	Ben Clemens: That thing is super useful, let me grab a link

2:29	Ben Clemens: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/18n0govdK7o67igaKXeK64DM2Z12n11…

2:29	Kate: Is there anyone having a slow spring that actually has you worried? Same question but flipped, anyone having a good spring you actually think is meaningful?

2:30	Ben Clemens: In that vein, I’m very interested in Alex Reyes. Throwing hard and with new mechanics (more Driveline short-arm-y than before)

2:30	Ben Clemens: Casey Mize has been throwing harder, also a good sign

2:31	Ben Clemens: Also curious about Bumgarner, looks like he had an uptick

2:31	Charley: in a 10 team dynasty, I am in need of pitching help. What are the ceilings for John Means, Gausman, and Musgrove (those 3 are the top available rotation pitchers right now), this year, and maybe beyond this year?

2:32	Ben Clemens: I think Musgrove’s ceiling is highest, and it’s like legit #2 starter ceiling

2:32	Ben Clemens: That said, I’m not 100% that I’m right on Means

2:32	Ben Clemens: He is a very different pitcher than he was when he came up and it’s hard to wrap my brain around it

2:32	Brad: Combined 2019 and 2020 WAR Leader SP, Degrom 9.6, Cole, 8.8, Bieber 8.8, Lynn 8.0, of note Bauer 5.8, Darvish 5.5

2:33	Ben Clemens: But I thought you said top 3!

2:33	Ben Clemens: Also, yeah, there are more things than just ‘how much war was produced in this year’ to being an ace

2:33	diadem: Who does Roster Resource use for their projections, line ups, rotations and closers?

2:33	Ben Clemens: For projections, it pulls in Depth Charts projections, which are a 50/50 blend of Steamer and ZiPS

2:33	Ben Clemens: For everything else, that’s Jason Martinez tirelessly watching freaking everything

2:34	Ben Clemens: And putting them together

2:34	Ben Clemens: It’s a staggering amount of work

2:34	Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

2:34	Ben Clemens: My friend, I’m sorry that KG slandered your performances

2:34	Ben Clemens: I think you were great in Rounders

2:34	Appa Yip Yip: Robbie Ray has been throwing strikes. It’s 8 innings, but if he can consistently find the zone what kind of season could he be looking at?

2:34	Ben Clemens: I’m bought in

2:34	Ben Clemens: Or, well

2:35	Ben Clemens: I think he can be the Robbie Ray of old again

2:35	Ben Clemens: Mid-to-upper 3’s ERA, lower FIP, gets hit hard

2:35	Ben Clemens: Lots of strikeouts but trouble with walks

2:36	Ben Clemens: That’d be a great outcome for Toronto, a solid number two to Ryu’s number one

2:36	Brad: Ben, you are right, you can also add in Lynn pitching at that time in a bad ballpark for SP and a terrible defense behind him and in the AL…

2:36	Ben Clemens: Last one on this

2:36	Ben Clemens: FIP adjusts for park

2:36	Ben Clemens: And doens’t consider defense

2:36	Ben Clemens: And you’re now just trying to double count them

2:36	Dave: Ben, Fangraphs currently has Adrian Morejon slotted as the Padres #5 in their depth chart rotation. What’s your outlook on him over the next few years – SP, RP, swingman and do you think he is any good (floor/ceiling)? Thanks

2:36	Ben Clemens: I think he’s good, yeah

2:37	Ben Clemens: I’m not great at analyzing prospect arms, to be honest

2:37	Ben Clemens: I feel a lot more confident on hitters

2:37	Ben Clemens: I think he’s likely to stick as a starter though

2:38	Ben Clemens: He has a bunch of different pitches, which can’t hurt

2:39	Ben Clemens: Walks are just always going to be aconcern given his minor league record and the book on him, but walks being a problem is hardly a unique thing

2:39	Guest: Matt Damon might have been good in Rounders, but John Malkovich’s “Russian” accent is an albatross dragging that movie’s overall quality down.

2:39	Ben Clemens: Oh, hard disagree

2:40	Ben Clemens: I think that his patently ridiculous Russian accent is a selling point

2:40	Ben Clemens: He sounds like me trying to do a Russian accent and it just consistently makes me happy

2:40	Ben Clemens: If I had a dollar for every time I said “All day he check check check”

2:40	clh: Does Casey Mize start in AAA this year due to his lack of command?

2:40	Ben Clemens: I think so, partially b/c it gets the Tigers an extra year and partially b/c they’d like to see him work on his command for realsies

2:41	Ben Clemens: But I’m still buying

2:41

Guest: Speaking of the Mets catching situation, I saw an article last week assigning grades to FA contracts, and they gave the McCann contract a D. That’s a little harsh, isn’t it? The AAV value is more or less right in line with what a lot of people were predicting. 4 years seems long, but it’s not that long, and it’s unlikely they would have offered it unless at least one other team was offering 3. And really, there’s a pretty decent chance that he produces more than $40M worth of value over 4 years.

2:41	Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think a D is kinda harsh

2:41	Ben Clemens: It’s a C contract to me

2:41	Ben Clemens: Maybe C+

2:41	Ben Clemens: I think the reasoning behind people not liking it is that they could have gone after Realmuto instead, but that’s unfair to McCann

2:42	Didace: Ahhhh, Spring. The Snow melts, the robins return, it’s time to file taxes…. and every expert predicts the Mets will be better than they turn out to be.

2:43	Ben Clemens: Indeed! That said, I think they’ll be good this year!

2:43	I am the walrus: I’m hearing Vaughn has a chance to start out of camp for WSox. I think they send him down for 2 week? You?

2:43	Ben Clemens: I actually think there’s a decent chance they don’t bother

2:44	Ben Clemens: I want to be clear, I have no inside information whatsoever

2:44	Ben Clemens: But the downside here is basically that you swap a year of Super 2 arb for a free agency year

2:44	Ben Clemens: And for someone of Vaughn’s age and production type, like, hwo cares?

2:45	Ben Clemens: Just bring him up if he’s ready

2:45	Ha Seong Kim: Should I be regretting my decision to sign with the Padres given they have a lot of depth and its not guaranteed I will see every day at bat? Side news, I guess the level is vastly different between the KBO and MLB given by my struggles in spring training….

2:45	Ben Clemens: Well, I wouldn’t read too much into the spring training struggles, personally.

2:45	Ben Clemens: The depth thing was always kinda worrisome, but not more now than it was before ST

2:47	Ben Clemens: That said, I haven’t watched much of the Padres in ST. If his approach is terrible, that’s not great

2:47	Matt: is the 2021 NL DH at 0 percent chance now?

2:47	Ben Clemens: Sadly I think so

2:47	Guest: Been a patient Freddy Peralta fan for several years. This the year? 5×5 Roto keeper league and can keep this year at $10; 2 yrs at $15; or throw him back in the pool and hope I can land him in that $10 – 15 range and gain 3 years control. Thought?

2:47	Ben Clemens: I’d probably risk sending him back

2:47	Ben Clemens: I too am a Peralta admirer, love being greedy

2:47	DJ: Cardinals seem to be having a pretty miserable ST so far–but O’Neill is playing well and Carlson is not. Should Carlson worry about PT?

2:48	Ben Clemens: He should, but not b/c of ST, it just isn’t that big of a deal

2:48	Ben Clemens: He’s also hitting the ball reasonably hard, which is a good sign

2:48	Ben Clemens: As I quickly peruse the savant leaderboards here

2:49	Ben Clemens: He’s hit a ball harder than O’Neill has this ST, for example, which sounds kinda weird

2:49	Moonlight Graham: Is it more likely Vladito hits 40 homers or hits .320?

2:50	Ben Clemens: .320, let’s say

2:50	Ben Clemens: Vlad is weird b/c I think a lot of the ‘he’s gonna go nova’ hype is around him getting the ball in the air more

2:50	Ben Clemens: When he does, he hits the crap out of it

2:51	Ben Clemens: But I think betting against a swing change is usually the safe move

2:51	5 Run Homer: “Iye vill splyash ze pyot in my clyub venever ze f*** Iye plyeaze” in Rounders is one of the greatest silly lines in any movie ever. Bad accents are fun!

2:51	Ben Clemens: Another great one

2:51	Ben Clemens: “And you von’t be puuuuushed ahhhround’

2:51	Ben Clemens: It’s just all so good

2:51

Charley: A bit new to baseball, (but loving this sport!). Can you provide a quick/brief explanation regarding SPs? for fantasy or in RL. I see experts and articles and in general discuss “aces”. Some of the questions above also asked about “Aces”, but you responded that an “Ace” is not always #1 starter. But wouldn’t John Means or Gausman or… Flagherty be “aces” for their respective teams? Straussberg would be an “ace” if healthy, but he’s also #2 no? What do industry experts or teams use to gauge if a pitcher is ace quality? the Innings pitched? SO potential? durability?

2:51	Ben Clemens: Great question, and I’m going to be honest with you, I don’t have a great answer

2:52	Ben Clemens: In my head (and I can’t claim to speak for anyone else), there are 30 #1 starters, the best starter on each team

2:52	Ben Clemens: An ace is something more ephemeral — it’s one of the elite pitchers who you can pencil into the Cy Young top 5 before the year

2:52	Ben Clemens: And be shocked if you’re wrong

2:52	Ben Clemens: Maybe top 5 is wrong, but the discussion

2:53	Ben Clemens: Teams can have two aces… I’d put Strasburg on there if he were healthy

2:53	Ben Clemens: I think it’s strikeouts, IP, durability, the feeling of ‘oh this guy is unhittable’

2:53	Ben Clemens: But again, that’s for me. If your definition of an ace is a team’s #1 pitcher, I mean, it’s subjective! we’re both right

2:53	5 Run Homer: Wouldn’t the White Sox’ decision to bring up Robert on opening day inform what they’ll do with Vaughn?

2:53	Ben Clemens: Yes, another sign pointing to yes

2:54	Moonlight Graham: Arozarena or the field for AL ROY? And if Kelenic breaks camp with the Mariners is he the favorite?

2:54	Ben Clemens: Easy field here

2:54	Ben Clemens: I love Randy, but baseball is hard and the field is big

2:54	Greg: If you had to pick one team to win the 2024 NL Central, who would it be?

2:54	Ben Clemens: I think I’d take the Cardinals by a hair over the Brewers

2:54	Ben Clemens: Here’s my thinking

2:55	Ben Clemens: The Pirates are always going to be held back by ownership

2:55	Ben Clemens: Whatever you think of their FO, it’s hard to win if your owner doesn’t want to

2:55	Ben Clemens: The Cubs look like they’re going to blow it up after this year, so not enough time for a turnaround

2:55	Ben Clemens: The Reds are doing a weird semi-blowup right now

2:56	Ben Clemens: That means the smart money is on the two teams who aren’t doing that, and I just like St. Louis’s financial might a bit better

2:56	Ben Clemens: Also, as a quick bow on the Arozarena comment, I looked up the futures odds, and he’s +350, so 3.5 to 1

2:57	Ben Clemens: Feeling good about the field

2:57	5 Run Homer: Is it smart to be worried about Vlad? I’ve been watching him for two years now and it feels like he might just be hitting 105 mph grounders forever

2:57	Ben Clemens: Smart? No idea. Understandable and relatable? Absolutely

2:57	Ben Clemens: That’s the fear, that he never elevates it

2:57	Ben Clemens: and the early results are not incredible

2:57	Appa Yip Yip: Would losing McGuire on waivers to clear the way for Kirk really end up mattering to the Jays if you get the better bat in the lineup to start the season?

2:57	Ben Clemens: I do think it would matter.

2:58	Ben Clemens: One: we can’t know the future, McGuire could be the best of the three in two years

2:58	Ben Clemens: Two: There’s probably value to be had from him at some point, even if you resign yourself to trading him

2:58	Ben Clemens: Okay, basically just those two, I thought I was gonna throw another one in

2:59	Ben Clemens: There are tradeoffs if it means less AB’s for Kirk

2:59	Ben Clemens: But I think that a few weeks of fewer AB’s is a reasonable price to pay for the chance to flip McGuire for something later, personally

2:59	Guest: Back to Peralta, I was greedy as well and didn’t keep him. So how high would you go to secure his services? I’m hoping to get him in the $10 range, but too many more outings like his last will likely push that higher.

3:00	Ben Clemens: These contextual questions are hard b/c it matters how your league looks and so on, but I’d probably go up to $13 or so? Don’t miss a player you’re big on for a buck

3:00	Appa Yip Yip: Cookies: crunchy or chewy?

3:00	Ben Clemens: Here’s where I lose half my readers 🙁

3:00	Ben Clemens: I think the type of cookie matters a lot

3:00	Ben Clemens: If you’ve had Tate’s Bakeshop cookies, those are ideal crunchy ones

3:01	Ben Clemens: And I really enjoy that kind of cookie, that’s probably actually my favorite

3:01	Ben Clemens: Fresh-baked cookies, on the other hand, I usually like those chewy

3:01	Ben Clemens: Tate’s has just figured out a good way to have their cookies be desirable even after being shipped

3:02	Ben Clemens: I think the key draw of crunchiness is that it holds up well, and the key draw of chewiness is if you can have them hot and gooey

3:02	Chip: Does Tejay Antone start or do the long-relief thing this year, mostly?

3:02	Ben Clemens: I think mostly long-relief thing, but long-term I bet starting

3:02	Dan: What if baseball let you care lots of relievers but if you bring one in mid inning the next inning starts with an intentional walk. I like relievers in baseball it’s the pitching changes that are lame.

3:03	Ben Clemens: That’s a funky one, I don’t know though

3:03	Ben Clemens: Bringing in a reliever mid-inning to spell your starter is hardly a dramatic strategy

3:03	Ben Clemens: Now, a second mid-inning replacement, boo

3:03	Fred Mar-Lynn: What’s your take on the Marlins’ 2021 playoff chances? I would think there are different opinions amongst writers, more so than any other team.

3:03	Ben Clemens: I’m not as pessimistic as our playoff odds (1.2%), but I’m pessimistic

3:03	Ben Clemens: I think they’re going to need three or four breakouts to contend, the division is really stacked and they have a lot of holes

3:04	Ben Clemens: Basically if the pitching staff goes nuclear, I can see it

3:04	Ben Clemens: But short of that, it’s not happening

3:04	Sam: What are your thoughts on Joey Gallo going forward? I was kind of all in following 2019, and I just think his profile is really fun and interesting

3:04	Ben Clemens: I think he’s one of those players who will be more interesting than good

3:04	Ben Clemens: Not that he isn’t good

3:05	Ben Clemens: But the sheer oddity of the profile is doing a lot of work in terms of making me think about him

3:05	Josiah: Do the giants have a chance to contend in next 2-3 years considering what dodgers and padres have built? Giants have tons of money coming off books but an entire infield and rotation needing replacement.

3:05	Ben Clemens: It’s going to be tough, like you said largely because of the division

3:06	Ben Clemens: I like what they’ve done in the Zaidi era in terms of sorting through a pile of players to find and keep the interesting ones, but it’s an uphill climb to fight those two powers

3:06	Ben Clemens: That said, contending is different than automatically winning, and if they reinvest the money coming off the books, that gets them to Wild Card contention at the very least

3:06	Alex A: Is there any market whatsoever for Inciarte that doesn’t need sweetening?

3:07	Ben Clemens: If you want more than a PTBNL, I think no

3:07	Ben Clemens: Or ‘cash considerations’ that come out to 50 bucks and a firm handshake

3:08	5 Run Homer: Are we really going to let the Orioles enter 2021 with Felix Hernandez and Matt Harvey in their rotation? Is there nobody else they can plug in there?

3:08	Ben Clemens: I like the idea of seeing what Felix can do

3:08	Ben Clemens: Now, is the answer likely nothing? Yes it is

3:08	Ben Clemens: But if there’s a place for him to try a comeback, it’s a team like Baltimore

3:09	DW: Chris Rodriguez – guy or GUY? Best guess at an ETA, knowing you’re not the resident prospect dude?

3:09	Ben Clemens: Guy, as a general rule if you have a back injury I need to see a little more to be in

3:09	Ben Clemens: Back injuries terrify me

3:10

Marko from Tropoja: Picking nits, but the only arguments I see excluding Kershaw as an ace are he won’t throw 200+ innings and he doesn’t throw 95. Dude just put up 2.4 ERA/3.2 FIP/.87 WHIP/26% K-BB through 89 IP including playoffs. He seems to be compared to Peak Kershaw instead of the other MLB pitchers. I’d be more worried about Scherzer.

3:10	Ben Clemens: This is a fair counterargument, and I think I’m maybe a little too low on Kershaw b/c of his injury struggles, but those were at their worst like 4 years ago now

3:10	Ben Clemens: The more I think about my ace listing the more I want Kershaw to be on it

3:10	Ben Clemens: There’s a swagger component, too, and he has that

3:11	5 Run Homer: where will be big 2021 free agent shortstops be in a year’s time?

3:12	Ben Clemens: I think Lindor stays with the Mets, Correa ends up on the Yankees (I dunno, just guessing), and Seager stays on the Dodgers. That leaves Story (no clue) and Javy (also no clue)

3:12	Ben Clemens: This is absolutely not somehting I’m good at, though

3:12	Didace: “Ben Clemens – Indeed! That said, I think they’ll be good this year!” All the experts say that every year, too.

3:13	Ben Clemens: Look the Mets have Lucy-with-the-football’ed me plenty in the past

3:13	Ben Clemens: And I don’t have a strong reason why they won’t again

3:13	Ben Clemens: But I am going to stick with my method, they look good, I should pick them to be good

3:13	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Aglio e olio is a strong contender for best, simplest pasta dish. So good the Beastie Boys had an EP named after it.

3:13	Ben Clemens: Ooh, I missed this earlier

3:13	Ben Clemens: It is indeed delicious

3:13	Ben Clemens: Honestly pasta is just great

3:14	Kate: Are the Pirates going to give Anthony Alford a real shot at regular ABs?

3:14	Ben Clemens: They really should, and indications are that they will

3:14	Ben Clemens: I don’t know if he’s going to work out, but he’s the kind of person you should be testing out if you’re the Pirates

3:14	Ben Clemens: This is the exact upside of being terrible

3:15	Sammy the dog: Were you worried for Hicks’ arm after/during that battle with Guillorme?

3:15	Ben Clemens: Not during, b/c I didn’t see it live

3:15	Ben Clemens: After, a little bit, but I’m just always going to be worried about Hicks’s arm

3:15	Ben Clemens: He’s a delight and a fragile one

3:15	I am the walrus: Two similar skills set players who’s a better this year…Solak or Edman?

3:16	Ben Clemens: I’ll take Edman, but Solak in fantasy b/c I feel better about the PT stability

3:16	Ben Clemens: I could see Shildt doing weird things with Carpenter at 2B

3:16	Ben Clemens: So Edman as a real-life value

3:16	Ben Clemens: Solak for your fake teams

3:17	I am the walrus: How many AB’s does Gardner steal from Frazier? Do you see Frazier getting 500-500AB

3:17	Ben Clemens: Hm, maybe 400?

3:17	Appa Yip Yip: A big part of pulling off a successful rebuild is giving dudes like Alford playing time and seeing one or more of them succeed. Also Alford is possibly the nicest dude on the planet.

3:17	Ben Clemens: Yeah, this

3:17	Ben Clemens: Do what the Giants did with Yaz

3:19	Ben Clemens: Alright, on that note, I’m going to call it a day early today. It’s still Spring Training for me too (read: I got back from vacation after a long drive yday and I’m feeling a little tired)

3:19	Ben Clemens: Thanks everyone for hanging out with me today, and I hope you’re as excited for the start of the season as I am

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG