Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/18/24
by Ben Clemens
March 18, 2024
| 1:52 |
: I’m gonna get this started a little early today
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| 1:52 |
: I’m cooking a bit for lunch so I’ll have to run around noon my time, so let’s get some extra questions in before the regular one hour run time
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| 1:52 |
: How do you sleep?
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| 1:52 |
: Shockingly well
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| 1:52 |
: Reports have Snell looking for $60M in a 2y bridge contract. That seems worse than the Yankees reported offer earlier in the offseason, but I can think of like 4 clubs immediately that should do this. You have a preferred destination for him now?
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| 1:53 |
: I think the Giants make a lot of sense
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| 1:53 |
: That rotation gets dicey fast and he feels like a good fit there
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| 1:53 |
: As you’ve been doing your research on team depth/positional power rankings, has any team’s depth at a particular position stood out/surprised you?
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| 1:53 |
: I am doing second base PPR and I was amazed by two teams in particular
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| 1:54 |
: The Pirates do not rank well (not much of a spoiler of course) but I love their huge amount of depth
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| 1:54 |
: It’s very difficult to predict who will end the season as their starting second baseman
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| 1:54 |
: the Blue Jays are even more this way
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| 1:54 |
: Like, they’re better, and also there are 5 players who seem like legit second basemen
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| 1:55 |
: Has there ever been a spring training performance that drastically affected how you feel about a player’s upcoming season. Not like injuries or stuff, but like actual results? I love the hype that occurs during spring training but I know it often isn’t founded.
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| 1:55 |
: I guess maybe some pitching performances?
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| 1:55 |
: Jordan Hicks having a 103 mph fastball after no one had heard of him is a good example
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| 1:55 |
: That opening day the Cards happened to be in New York so I went to the game
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| 1:55 |
: And I knew who Hicks was, no one in the stands did, but I remember Todd Frazier just looking up at the board for the velo reading and laughing
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| 1:55 |
: Thoughts on Olivares-Pirates? Thank you.
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| 1:56 |
: I just wrote up the MAT trade, I think that he is gonna put a squeeze on Olivares’s playing time
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| 1:56 |
: This feels a bit like a situation where if Olivares is good, it’ll be fine
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| 1:57 |
: But if he struggles out of the gate, he might progressively get buried
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| 1:57 |
: Where do you stand on the Elly De La Cruz fantasy question this year? He’s been a mid 2nd late 3rd rounder. Worth the gamble over more safer picks such as Lindor, J-Ram, Seager?
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| 1:57 |
: I’m a gambler
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| 1:58 |
: As a fantasy owner, in general
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| 1:58 |
: I’d definitely be in and hoping
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| 1:58 |
: Are you worried about Acuna’s knee going forward?
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| 1:59 |
: I think I’m more than a baseline amount of worried, but not panicking
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| 1:59 |
: I think it’s more of a maintenance issue than anything else at this point
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| 1:59 |
: Terrible news for Daniel Espino. Hasn’t pitched since April 2022. Time to cut loose in a Dynasty League?
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| 1:59 |
: Yeah sadly
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| 1:59 |
: what’s for lunch?
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| 1:59 |
: Ah! Glad you asked. We’ve been messing around with making tofu and chicken that has that American Chinese takeout food sticky quality
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| 2:00 |
: Basically using a good amount of corn starch
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| 2:01 |
: So we’re making black pepper tofu, and then doing a technique we like that I don’t have a great name for
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| 2:01 |
: but basically you microwave brocolli for a bit to pre-blanch it, and then cook it like regular
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| 2:02 |
: Always seems to turn out great
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| 2:02 |
: plus rice obv
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| 2:02 |
: My longshot picks to win the WS last year were the Diamondbacks and the Rangers (it’s a shame I’m not a betting man), and this year I’m going with the Marlins and Cleveland. What longshot team (bottom 15 of Vegas odds) do you like?
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| 2:02 |
: Just perusing the bottom 15 right now
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| 2:03 |
: I think the Brewers are a good pick here. And I guess the Reds? I think the NL Central teams are better than people think, basically
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| 2:03 |
: The chat says Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/18/24 will begin on: March 18, 2024 at 2:00 PM EDT But the top line on the site says Ben Clemens will be chatting at 1 PM! |
| 2:03 |
: Oh that’s entirely my fault. I forgot how the auto-time-suggester works and posted the article that links to this chat too early
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| 2:03 |
: Are you concerned with Corbin Carroll’s health profile?
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| 2:03 |
: Yes!
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| 2:03 |
: It’s just about the only thing I’m concerned about with him
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| 2:03 |
: _________ will lead Milwaukee in saves in 2024 (inclusive of Devin Williams)
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| 2:03 |
: Abner Uriba
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| 2:04 |
: Uribe*
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| 2:04 |
: What PPPs are you doing this year?
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| 2:04 |
: 2B, SP 16-30
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| 2:04 |
: I’m pretty excited to switch out of SP 1-15 to SP 16-30, I’ve been doing 1-15 for a while and it’s just always the same guys
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| 2:04 |
: Paul Skenes has now pitched to an official “smattering” of major leaguers. He’s thrown 102 mph–and given up a homer to Amed Rosario. Have we learned anything that influences expectations? Anything in his performance in spring training 2024 v. end of his 2023 season that informs how to view the player?
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| 2:04 |
: I’d argue not really. He is what he is, which is a guy with tremendous stuff who we need to see against major leaguers b/c there’s not a ton of point in having him in the minors
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| 2:04 |
: woah we have baseball this week!!!
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| 2:05 |
: Heck yeah!
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| 2:05 |
: Which of these boring outfielders (eligible) do you like most for this year? Conforto, Pederson, Yaz, Haniger, Wade, Canha Laureano. And do you like Raffaele and Doyle more than them.
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| 2:05 |
: I think I’d take Yaz first, Wade second, Raffaele third?
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| 2:05 |
: Like you said, boring
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| 2:05 |
: Colton Cowser has to make the opening day roster right? He’s on fire – let’s go!!!!
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| 2:05 |
: We’re projecting him to make the roster
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| 2:06 |
: He truly is on fire
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| 2:06 |
: Dave Roberts indicated Shohei may play the field at some point this season. You buying it?
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| 2:06 |
: I think it makes sense as a long-term play. Reasonably speaking, the Dodgers have to assign a reasonable probability weight to Ohtani giving up pitching at some point
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| 2:07 |
: So doing it in a way that increases their defensive flexibility, and in a year where it won’t be impacting his rest on the pitching side, makes sense to me
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| 2:07 |
: He’s clearly a good enough athlete to do it
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| 2:07 |
: I think it was Jay who told me to ask you this question a while ago, but I kept checking into chats ten minutes after you wrapped up. Can you give a statistical guess of what Witt’s statline would have to look like for his option to be exercised? I can’t really fathom a scenario in which the royals would want to pay him an extra 100 million, but also in which he wouldn’t have exercised his opt out in any of the 4 years before.
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| 2:09 |
: This is a good reminder that I need to update the old opt out probability calculator to deal with these new fancy contracts
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| 2:09 |
: I think the way this happens is that he’s hurt before year 1 of the opt outs
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| 2:09 |
: er, player options, whatever, semantics
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| 2:09 |
: but he’s hurt coming in, and keeps getting better as those four years go on. I agree that it’s phenomenally unlikely
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| 2:10 |
: I think it’s entirely about trajectory
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| 2:10 |
: Am I the only one who could see pretty tough year for the Phillies? Bohm is an average-ish player. Stott was boosted by defense last year, but overperformed his batted ball data and didn’t hit the ball any harder in Year 2 than Year 1 and probably isn’t a ~4 WAR player. Marsh way overperformed last year. Their OF looks like one of the worst in baseball. JTR is aging and clearly slowing down. Two great starters and a bunch of question marks in the rotation, and a good-not-great BP. They made no improvements from last year really unless you consider Merrifield an improvement.
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| 2:10 |
: I think that’s perfectly reasonable, I am reasonably down on Stott
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| 2:10 |
: That said, I don’t think the NL East is very good
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| 2:10 |
: it’s not like the Marlins or Mets got way better
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| 2:11 |
: and I think that Nola will probably be better than he was in 2023
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| 2:11 |
: Hi I’m just back to let you know you ruined my life. My algorithm correctly predicted how left handers hit in monsoons on jupiter, in a 1-2 count with no runners on base but you just HAD to show me up???
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| 2:11 |
: 
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| 2:11 |
: Can someone like Langeliers or Noda Really step up this year?
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| 2:11 |
: Man, Noda already stepped up
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| 2:12 |
: Do you see Vientos reducing the strikeouts? Thanks
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| 2:12 |
: I don’t
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| 2:12 |
: There’s been a lot of discussion of this on Mets prospect Twitter, which I read b/c I read everything I can
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| 2:12 |
: He’s been really overhyped compared to both pedigree and production
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| 2:13 |
: and I don’t see a ton in the data that makes me think “oh this guy is just an adjustment away from a 15% k rate”
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| 2:13 |
: he struck out 29% of the time in Triple-A in 2022, 28% in AA in 2021
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| 2:13 |
: He’s run colossal swinging strike rates at every level of the minors
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| 2:14 |
: I think this is just who he is
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| 2:14 |
: I mean, I don’t think he’s gonna keep posting such low batting lines, my guess is he’ll hit for more power
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| 2:14 |
: but the strikeouts are just a core part of his profile
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| 2:14 |
: Green beer. What other national celebration or holiday should have its own food coloring beer? Or is St Pat’s one too many already?
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| 2:14 |
: red white and blue beer for the fourth of july
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| 2:14 |
: I’d be in for orange halloween beer I guess
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| 2:14 |
: Gavin Stone’s changeup looked unhittable last night/this morning, albeit against a non-MLB professional team. Is he an average third-pitch away from being a middle-of-the-rotation starter? Reports claim he was tipping pitches last year too, which helps explain the drop in K rate at the big league level.
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| 2:14 |
: I think so
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| 2:15 |
: He looks pretty good to me and the whole ‘one third pitch away from dominance’ profile is one I’d like gambling on if I ran a team
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| 2:15 |
: NL only 5×5 roto final keeper spot mclain, suzuki or kim
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| 2:15 |
: McLain for me
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| 2:15 |
: I’m just a huge fan
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| 2:15 |
: Have your friends ever called you Ben Twain?
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| 2:15 |
: At the risk of getting mocked in the future, my middle name is Samuel and yes, people have definitely made jokes
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| 2:15 |
: Who are this year’s under-the-radar setup/holds guys without a defined role but undeniable skills (a la Duran or Clase a few years ago) … ?
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| 2:15 |
: Phil Maton
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| 2:15 |
: Better fantasy shortstop this season: Bichette or Henderson? Next few years?
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| 2:15 |
: Gunnar
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| 2:16 |
: I think that people are underestimating the hit that Bichette’s fantasy profile took when he started running less
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| 2:16 |
: Is 2024 the year Arenado finally gets his MVP.
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| 2:16 |
: I’m not feeling it, no
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| 2:16 |
: I feel like it needed to be 2022 if it was going to be ever
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| 2:16 |
: are you going to get up super early or do anything special for the game on Wednesday? I’m farther east than you so it won’t be as big of a deal, but am planning to get up early and make chilaquiles!
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| 2:17 |
: I’m probably not gonna do anything special but I’ll definitely watch
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| 2:17 |
: Chances Cole Ragans ends the year top 10 in War for Pitchers?
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| 2:17 |
: ooh good one
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| 2:17 |
: 40%
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| 2:17 |
: is Jackson Jobe good enough to be a MLB SP5 right now?
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| 2:17 |
: I think so
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| 2:17 |
: Do you think there exists any threshold of incompetence by Fisher & co. that would be impossible to spin/overcome, such that he would be pressured into selling the A’s by the league & fellow owners (in the near term, not post-Vegasish)? Certainly it would be difficult to imagine a worse job being done in the PR dept up until now, so given the already-damning facts working against them I wonder if you could envision any circumstance that would make it infeasible for the others to continue to back his ambitions?
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| 2:17 |
: I think it’d have to be a series of really publicly embarrassing things that include some on-field goofs
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| 2:18 |
: like the team has a spate of injuries, so they call up some players, only Fisher puts them on commercial flights that get delayed so Ryan Noda has to pitch six innings
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| 2:18 |
: I think if the A’s end up making a farce of the game on the field, the owners will have to change their tune
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| 2:18 |
: not mocking, that’s cool that that is your name! was it intentional with Mark Twain, or a coincidence?
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| 2:18 |
: definitely intentional, my parents had a sense of humor
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| 2:19 |
: What do you make of the rumors that Milwaukee might try out DL Hall in the starting rotation? A lot to ask of someone with his injury history, overall lack of innings, and pitch mix?
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| 2:19 |
: I guess I’d put it this wya
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| 2:19 |
: You don’t trade for DL Hall if you don’t think he has a decent chance at being a starter
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| 2:19 |
: if the Brewers thought he was relief-only they would have traded for a different prospect
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| 2:19 |
: I’ve always had dreams that my son would become a pitcher. But after reading the article of how many injuries they really go through, I’m starting to have reservations like I do with him not playing football. Reasonable or no?
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| 2:20 |
: I don’t really think they’re comparable, tbh
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| 2:20 |
: the quality of life differences between people who had elbow surgery a bunch of times and people who played football a long time are big
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| 2:20 |
: like leaving the concussion issues aside, just your knees and ankles in football, dang
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| 2:21 |
: Seiya Suzuki MVP vote getter this year?
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| 2:21 |
: I hope so! I’ve been team Seiya a long time and I was very encouraged by 2023
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| 2:21 |
: the guy can just flat out hit
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| 2:21 |
: Can I ask what you like about McClain? Obviously he plays in a band box, which helps for fantasy, but the peripherals really point more to a slightly above average hitter than a great one.
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| 2:22 |
: I think players like him who are fast risers just succeeding everywhere tend to make good adjustments in the bigs
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| 2:22 |
: I agree that he outperformed his peripherals but I like his odds of cutting his strikeout rate given his good sense of the zone in the minors, and I think that his floor is really high from a PT standpoint as well b/c he’s such a great defender
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| 2:22 |
: He’ll steal some bases, too
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| 2:22 |
: Better player in real life than fantasy, I think, but just a great player overall
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| 2:23 |
: What do you think the Tigers rotation looks like by the middle of the season? Right now there are 6 guys (Skubal, Maeda, Flaherty, Manning, Mize, Olson) competing for 5 spots out of camp. And then Jobe looks like the real deal. I guess there are always injuries so that will really end up shaping it.
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| 2:23 |
: Yeah, I think that Jobe is a long shot to be in the rotation on a permanent basis this year, and that one of those guys will go down with injury clearing things up
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| 2:23 |
: I’m feeling pretty hopeful about Flaherty turning his career around
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| 2:24 |
: He’s a very talented pitcher, and I could totally see the talent shining through after some rough years
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| 2:24 |
: This super doesn’t matter but did Glasnow get the OD start because he’s actually pitcher in the majors before?
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| 2:24 |
: probably? I really don’t know why, but just a seniority thing makes sense to me
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| 2:25 |
: Do you think the Mets are having some buyers remorse? They got Manaea and Bader for $24m a year when it seems they could’ve got Snell and Taylor for just over $30m and with the same length of deals.
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| 2:25 |
: On Bader, probably? I mean, I prefer Bader to MAT, and he’s a New York guy which should really help with marketing stuff
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| 2:25 |
: Maybe the Mets need that this year
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| 2:25 |
: I don’t really think so on Manaea though, like they can still go out and sign Snell if they want, it doesn’t make the Manaea deal any worse
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| 2:25 |
: or better, etc.
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| 2:25 |
: Am I legit and how do you see my 2024 unfolding?
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| 2:26 |
: I hope I’m wrong on this. I am really skeptical that your bat will play in the majors given the contact quality you’ve displayed in your career. I’d prefer to give you another year in the minors to focus more on development rather than throw you in the deep end in a playoff race right away
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| 2:27 |
: that said… you’re gonna play some gorgeous defense and I’m here for it
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| 2:27 |
: How comfortable are you with the use of park factors when we don’t have a super strong causal link for the clear trends we observe? I was listening to Rates and Barrels and Eno was speculating that the batting eye at Seattle is what causes their higher K rates, but wasn’t super sure, for example
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| 2:27 |
: I like regressing them a LOT
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| 2:27 |
: 2nd base PPP – are you, a STL fan, in love with Nico Hoerner?
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| 2:27 |
: I think he’s quite good, I liked Tommy Edman at 2b and I think Hoerner has a similar vibe
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| 2:28 |
: good defensive shortstop whose biggest liability was probably arm, so 2b just plays perfectly
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| 2:28 |
: Moncada for a bounce back this year? Someone other than Robert has to do something in that line-up, right?
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| 2:28 |
: Boy, you’re asking the wrong person, I’ve been fading Moncada for years
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| 2:29 |
: We just have such a long sample of the passive approach not paying off for him, and he just sticks with it
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| 2:29 |
: Maybe at this point he just has bad strike zone recognition, I dunno
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| 2:29 |
: he just does not swing at enough strikes. And yet he has contact issues so he’s not walking a ton either
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| 2:29 |
: Thoughts on KB in 2024? Over the injuries, and serviceable in fantasy baseball???
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| 2:29 |
: Yeah I’m in!
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| 2:30 |
: I mean, I’ve been wrong this way before
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| 2:30 |
: And I think the Rockies are using him in a really strange way still, the whole Bryant excitement was his ability to shift around
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| 2:30 |
: But I think he’s gonna be a lot better than ’23 and that the Coors effect is gonna make him a legit player in fantasy
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| 2:30 |
: Do you have any concerns of the first half of Trea Turner of last year? I know he finished in fire, but any reason to think he’ll decline this year?
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| 2:30 |
: I absolutely do
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| 2:31 |
: I’m much more steamer than zips on this one (steamer thinks he’s a 3.8 WAR player, ZiPS 5.1)
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| 2:32 |
: I just have a hard time projecting hte power surge to stay where it was, and I’m not in love with his defense, basically
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| 2:32 |
: Colton Cowser or Jackson Merrill for this year? Does Merrill have a longer leash?
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| 2:32 |
: I think that Merrill has a long leash because there’s just not much behind him
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| 2:32 |
: WHy didn’t the Padres sign Michael A. Taylor or Adam Duvall? Great question!
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| 2:32 |
: I’m not a doctor, but realistic chance we get over 20 starts from Cole? The injury still concerns me
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| 2:33 |
: Yeah I think pretty unlikely. 15 seems like a more reasonable top end to me
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| 2:33 |
: Yeah looks like Roster Resource has him down for 16
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| 2:33 |
: Better breakout candidate, Cole Ragans or Bryan Woo?
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| 2:33 |
: I mean if you’re allowed to count Ragans as a breakout candidate, Ragans
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| 2:33 |
: He already broke out
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| 2:33 |
: How close are we nerds to quantifying the value of pitch calling/sequencing?
We have one catcher on our 14U team who consistently gets strong performances from his pitchers while the other catcher is pretty predictable in how he calls pitches (e.g. first pitch FB). The latter’s pitchers tend to have blow up innings more often. There must be something there. |
| 2:33 |
: There’s definitely something there
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| 2:33 |
: I don’t need it to be quantified
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| 2:34 |
: I like there being some fuzzy factors in sports
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| 2:34 |
: And I think it’s one of those things where the effects are so complex, the quantification is gonna have huge error bars and be very player-specific anyway
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| 2:34 |
: correct game calling and sequencing depends heavily on context
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| 2:34 |
: Thoughts of Benson breaking out in Cincy w the extra PT?
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| 2:34 |
: I think it’s a smart bet
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| 2:35 |
: I’m not really a believer in the profile, but I like betting on playing time
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| 2:35 |
: With Cole injured, are there any future HOF pitchers in their prime playing this season?
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| 2:35 |
: I missed answering this one earlier but I wanted to come back to it
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| 2:36 |
: Your top contenders are: Wheeler, Strider, Yamamoto, Burnes, Valdez
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| 2:36 |
: then there are a bunch of people behind that, but those are the five whose trajectories seem HoF-adjacent to me
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| 2:36 |
: obviously none of them are anywhere near 50% to make the hall of fame
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| 2:36 |
: But those are my best bets
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| 2:36 |
: Do you think Gavin Lux will have the breakout that was suspected before the ACL injury? And what does that look like? .270/15/10?
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| 2:36 |
: man, I understand why the Dodgers keep trying to make Lux happen, but at some point you have to accept that it won’t
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| 2:37 |
: I think that this is it, and I’m down on a breakout, I feel like his having the yips is just a really bad sign
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| 2:38 |
: it’s a freaking pressure cooker in LA, that’s not idea
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| 2:38 |
: ideal*
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| 2:38 |
: deep 20-team league , struggling for a CI/util type…would you prefer Jonathan Aranda or JD Davis? standard cats ,H2H
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| 2:38 |
: I think I’d prefer Davis for the likely higher playing time
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| 2:39 |
: Is Palacios the next in the long line of OFs the Cardinals gave up that explode? Or is Tyler O’Neill going to regain ’21 form instead?
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| 2:39 |
: Haha I think I like O’Neill’s odds more than Palacios’s
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| 2:40 |
: I don’t entirely count Palacios in this list, the Cardinals picked him up for nothing, he played well for them, and then they turned him into a reliever they needed
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| 2:40 |
: this isn’t like Arozarena, who they traded for less than his consensus prospect value, or Garcia who they just flat out cut
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| 2:40 |
: Crazy that the worst case scenario for the Dodgers is just putting Miggy Ro at ss, Mookie back to 2nd and they still easily win the division
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| 2:40 |
: Oh yeah they’re good!
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| 2:41 |
: Roberts didn’t specific where they’re testing Shohei in field. Get ready for the Ohtani x Betts double play combo!
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| 2:41 |
: Do you think Jared Kelenic will stick at left feild
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| 2:41 |
: Eh…. no
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| 2:41 |
: I like the idea by the Braves, good to bet on volatility given that they have a good roster elsewhere, but I am pessimistic
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| 2:41 |
: how much playing time do you think will Adam Duval get
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| 2:42 |
: I think our projections seem reasonable, around 50% PT, 300-350 PA
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| 2:42 |
: In regards to that ST breakout question: I think Judge (still a prospect) had a huge spring one year and it changed everyone from “he could be good, but k’s” to “wait, wut??”
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| 2:42 |
: There’s a good one
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| 2:42 |
: Chances of a Martin Perez bounce back year? Word is he fixed his release point and has now only allowed 5 hits in 11 ST IP with 3 walks and 12 K’s
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| 2:42 |
: Sure, why not. If we’re saying bounce back to somewhere just worse than league average, at least
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| 2:43 |
: It’s not like he was unplayable in 2023, the Rangers had more starters than they needed and he looked better int he bullpen so they jsut went with it
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| 2:43 |
: if you’re saying bounce back to his 2022 season, nah
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| 2:44 |
: why are double plays included in war when it’s clearly context dependent in a stat that strives to be non-context dependent?
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| 2:44 |
: I mean, that’s true of baserunning and defense in general
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| 2:44 |
: I’m not sure what the right answer is there
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| 2:44 |
: but it’s not like double plays are the only thing. You can’t make the defensive plays you aren’t offered, you can only make the baserunning choices that you’re presented by what the people after you do, etc.
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| 2:44 |
: I wanted to suggest Gallen but the volume just isn’t there
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| 2:44 |
: Yeah, there are a lot of guys where they have a good peak but not enough volume
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| 2:44 |
: o/u 1.5 qualified starters for the Reds at the end of the season? Feels like the answer to this question correlates heavily with whether they make the playoffs or not
|
| 2:44 |
: under
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| 2:45 |
: what valulation method do you use when assigning values in a roto league (i.e. z-scores, pvm, SGps etc.) ?
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| 2:45 |
: SGP’s, I’m a big fan of Jeff Z’s work
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| 2:45 |
: Regarding Skenes, I’d think control is the absolute #1 thing you COULD work on in the minors?
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| 2:45 |
: I suppose, but “hey Paul learn to throw strikes” doesn’t really seem liek a plan?
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| 2:45 |
: ONEIL CRUZ ALERT
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| 2:45 |
: HOME RUN NUMBER 7
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| 2:46 |
: Okay my lunch plans are heating up sooner than expected, so I’m gonna have to call it a day early today. Great chat everyone, and let’s run it back for a jumbo-length one next week
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.