Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/23/20
2:01 |
: Hey guys, welcome to the chat. It’s a pretty weird time at the moment, to say the least. I just got a notification that the Olympics were canceled while I was writing up this introduction, for example.
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2:01 |
: I’m going to make myself a coffee really quickly, and then get into the questions.
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2:03 |
: It’s very important that I have your favorite soup recipe
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2:03 |
: My favorite soup is probably just a nice hearty chili, with beans (sorry Dan).
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2:04 |
: But my wife and I have been eating more vegetarian meals recently, and if you’re going to do that, we made a really nice bean soup last week.
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2:04 |
: Black beans, onions, garlic, cumin, taco seasoning, jalapenos, carrots, and a can of IPA.
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2:05 |
: Throw all those in a slow cooker and let it go to town. Eat over rice or with chips (depending on how long you cook it, it can reduce somewhat heavily).
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2:05 |
: So what is the absolute shortest possible season that would be worth it? Like 48 games, four three-game series only against in-division opponents?
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2:06 |
: Interesting. I think I’d prefer a mega-tournament, something like give the two previous league winners a first round bye but then do a round-of-32 style deal, with say best of 9 series in each.
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2:06 |
: That would mean 45 games maximum, and I don’t exactly know what I’d be getting out of the regular season otherwise.
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2:06 |
: 45 games for a single team, that is, and that’d be super unlikely.
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2:07 |
: Will Gavin Lux start in Minors?
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2:08 |
: I mean, no? I suppose the Dodgers could, but I’m not sure what they’d get out of it at this point. It really comes down to how they handle service time rules, but he has 28 days banked already, so avoiding enough time that he gets under the Super-2 deadline seems really dicey. I think they’ll just play it straight, especially given that if we do have a shortened season (all bets are off if we skip the season), you really want all hands on deck.
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2:08 |
: Oh Mr Ben!! Grace thee with thy wisdom!! Did I get a steal in the 2nd to last round of my AL only draft with Rich Hill?
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2:09 |
: Yes for sure. I mean, I really like Rich Hill either way, but yeah…. Hill, Verlander, I guess Luis Urias, various Yankees… nagging injury types are all looking better now
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2:09 |
>manager walks 3 steps toward mound >manager walks 1 step toward dugout >manager spins in circles |
2:10 |
: I truly have no idea how it will turn out.
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2:10 |
: One thing I’m worried about is that I haven’t played OOTP in a while.
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2:10 |
: But yeah, Twitch Plays was an inspiration for this.
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2:11 |
: So far, most of the suggestions have been eminently reasonable. I haven’t given any crazy options, but even then, ‘extremely aggressive’ isn’t winning the how should the team be on the basepaths poll
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2:11 |
: Which is slightly shocking to me. I voted for that!
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2:11 |
: But I guess we’re trying to win, not goof around.
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2:11 |
: And people do love winning.
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2:12 |
: First, a huge yes to vegetarian/vegan chili. Second, do you think MLB already has a point of no return date in mind, or are they likely still procrastinating?
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2:12 |
: Ben, this whole situation is a real bummer. I feel like if I don’t get to enjoy a nice hot dog with friends and family on 4th of July this year, I’ll be bummed in a way I’ve never been bummed.
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2:12 |
: If I say baseball starts in fall on 7/4/20, are you taking the over or under on that?
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2:12 |
: I’ll throw all of these together, as they’re about a similar thing. Yeah, the whole situation is super lame.
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2:12 |
: It also really sucks how many people aren’t taking it seriously.
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2:13 |
: Like, I get that there are a lot of people for whom staying home isn’t an option.
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2:13 |
: I’m not talking about them.
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2:13 |
: LA and Marin County have had to close down beaches because there have been such big crowds.
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2:13 |
: Like, c’mon people. I walk our dog through a nearby park, and it’s been as crowded this week as ever.
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2:13 |
: And not with dog walkers, either – just with people out having picnics or throwing a ball around or whatnot.
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2:14 |
: In terms of baseball — I think they probably have a no return date in mind, but they won’t tell anyone, and they’ll also be willing to fudge it if it’s a few days or so.
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2:14 |
: I’d take the ‘after’ on 7/4/20 though.
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2:14 |
: I chose Grisham and Profar as late round picks over Winker and Margot…..did I get that 100%, 50%, or 0% correct?
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2:15 |
: Hm. I’ll say 100%. I like Winker, but he’s a better real-life player than fantasy player I think.
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2:15 |
: Platoon bat, walks a lot, that kind of thing.
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2:15 |
: And I don’t really know if you’ll get much out of Profar, but would you get much out of Margot either? I guess my point is that Grisham is my favorite of the four by far.
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2:16 |
: Ben–I want to go back and score some games (because, well, no baseball). Can you recommend a good scorecard for MLB games?
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2:16 |
: Huh, interesting question.
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2:16 |
: I have some scorecards, but I just bought whatever the best option seemed like on Amazon.
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2:16 |
: So I’m not really sure that’s helpful.
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2:16 |
: What sort of coffee set-up do you have at home? Do you need any recommendations for local roasteries to order beans from and support during these hard times?
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2:17 |
: I’m boring and generic and have a Keurig. My wife got it for me as a birthday present one year, and my coffee game isn’t so fancy that I feel the need to go fancy-schmancy Aeropress or whatever.
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2:17 |
: That said, we also have a drip pot and grinder, and will buy local roastery beans from time to time.
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2:17 |
: Supporting local businesses matters more now than it probably ever has.
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2:18 |
: You down with this trade? Dynasty. Gave up Muncy,Giles,JA Happ got K Tucker,Solak
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2:18 |
: Yeah, I’m okay with that. I dunno what you’ll get in Solak but I’m really high on Tucker.
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2:19 |
: I’m not sure how much of it is how enjoyable it is to see a little skinny dude generate so much power, but I am just a huge fan of everything he’s doing.
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2:19 |
: What’s the greatest baserunning season of all time (e.g., most baserunning contribution to WAR)?
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2:19 |
: FanGraphs leaderboards have you covered!
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2:19 |
: In 1986, Vince Coleman was worth 15.7 runs above average on the bases.
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2:19 |
: 1986 was a pretty normal season run scoring wise, 9.6 runs to a win.
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2:20 |
: After that, 1962 Maury Wills, 2012 Mike Trout, 2008 Willy Taveras (!!!), 2003 Carlos Beltran, and 1983 Ricky Henderson are the other people with 14 or more runs above average value.
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2:20 |
: I just lost my job in baseball and basically have nowhere to turn idk
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2:20 |
: I’m really sorry to hear that.
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2:21 |
: This whole shelter in place thing has made me realize that I’m just not in tune enough with how fragile people’s livelihoods and lives are.
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2:21 |
: Like, you always hear that people are paycheck-to-paycheck, or that if x company was closed for a week its fixed costs would overwhelm it.
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2:22 |
: But I kind of live in a bubble, and I don’t notice those things most of the time.
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2:22 |
: I don’ really know what the answer is, here. Help out people who you can help. Make sure your friends are doing okay. Universal Basic Income? Maybe!
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2:23 |
: But yeah it sucks. I’ve never felt so helpless to stop something. I’ve definitely been as helpless or more helpless about other things! But this one really is right in my face.
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2:23 |
: Did I get my new fantasy baseball chat name 100% correct?
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2:23 |
: Mr Ben!! May your wisdom echo throughout the cosmos!! Are you a believer in Dylan Cease??
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2:24 |
: I’m going to have to say 98% correct, because I like John Olerud’s Helmet more as a name.
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2:24 |
: As to your question, Mr. Helmet.
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2:25 |
: I’m not really in on Cease as an ace. I think that he’s probably best used as a starter, he’s just good enough that you don’t want to jam him into relief.
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2:25 |
: But I want him to have a better third pitch or at least to knock the walk rate down.
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2:25 |
: I could see him being Carlos Martinez or Kenta Maeda — nice rotation piece who is maybe better in the bullpen come playoffs.
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2:26 |
: Are you familiar with the game “Torres”? I have it in German, and it’s fun with 4 or 5 people, but it’s hard to cheat.
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2:26 |
: I am not, but I’m gonna go look it up now.
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2:26 |
: I’ve actually been playing more group games during shelter in place, which sounds weird.
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2:26 |
: But we’ve started setting up Zoom calls and Google Hangouts with friends and family.
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2:27 |
: My family is scattered across the Southeast and my wife’s family is from Wisconsin, so we’d rarely see them otherwise.
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2:27 |
: But we’ve played a lot of online codenames (horsepaste.com), we played some Just One (all you need is one person with the game and everyone else to have some sheets of paper), and we’re looking at playing Decrypto online as well.
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2:28 |
: It’s definitely a little weird to sit on your couch while playing a party game with people who are nowhere near you.
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2:28 |
: And video chat feels way more asynchronous and awkward than real life
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2:29 |
: But it beats sitting around doing nothing!
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2:29 |
: Is building your fantasy league in OOTP and simulating games day by day to fill the void in your heart (1) a great idea or (2) the best idea?
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2:29 |
: Yeah I’m super into it. Brad Johnson came up with the idea to simulate an entire actual season, with 30 managers, and that’s really cool.
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2:29 |
: But that’s hard to do, obviously, and requires a lot of people who are willing to put time into it.
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2:29 |
: Simulating a fantasy league sounds like way more fun.
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2:29 |
: And OOTP is awesome overall.
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2:30 |
: I played a lot in college, and I think the easily gameable stuff (spend on coaches and minor leaguers, that kinda thing) has been ironed out.
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2:30 |
: But if you’re in the mood for baseball, it scratches that itch.
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2:30 |
: And for me personally, a lot of the joy in baseball is in stats and box scores anyway.
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2:30 |
: Which OOTP hits exactly.
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2:30 |
: Party game you can play remotely during quarantine: Quiplash
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2:30 |
: Wait you can? Guest, tell me more about how.
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2:30 |
: I love Quiplash
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2:31 |
: But I’ve only ever played it on Switch at someone’s house.
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2:31 |
: Or potentially on some other gaming system that I thought was Switch.
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2:31 |
: Damn Willy Taveras was only replacement level overall that year. That speed was so fun to watch though.
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2:31 |
: Yeah what a bizarre season he had. It’s a bunch of really good players (fine, Vince Coleman wasn’t really good, but he was a star at the time).
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2:31 |
: And then Taveras.
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2:32 |
: If MLB comes back this year, are they willing to keep playing games if one of the players tests positive? There’s almost 1000 players and coaches in the majors and no way that they can keep every single one from getting infected. Are they going to have entire teams on the DL while they self-isolate?
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2:33 |
: It’s gonna be a freaking mess. That’s why I think we should bet on later than July 4th, with some chance of no season.
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2:33 |
: I truly have no clue how they’d handle it.
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2:33 |
: You can’t spin the whole season up, have one player test positive, and then spin it back down.
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2:33 |
: Re Quiplash: Everyone uses their laptop to be on Zoom/Google Hangout/etc and their phone to play the game. 1 person puts the game on their TV via XBOX or Chromecast or the like, and then joins the Zoom/Hangout from a second laptop whose camera they direct at the TV so everyone can see it. We did it Friday night and it was great.
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2:34 |
: Ooh got it.
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2:34 |
: If I remember right, there’s some code you type into your phone?
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2:35 |
: In any case I’m going to add that to our rotating list.
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2:35 |
: You’re somewhat of a Cardinals fan when you have to pick laundry, right? Are you originally from StL?
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2:35 |
: Yeah – I’d say past somewhat, honestly. Grew up a diehard fan.
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2:35 |
: My dad is from St. Louis, my uncle still lives there, and I grew up in East Tennessee.
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2:35 |
: So it was Braves territory, theoretically, and the Blue Jays Double-A team was about 30 minutes away.
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2:36 |
: But eh, my dad’s a big baseball fan, and Tennessee is Cardinals territory even.
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2:36 |
: Not East TN, but still
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2:36 |
: I am not quite the fan I was, say, five years ago, but I can tell you the whole Cards depth charts and prospects of note and everything with way more depth than I can for any other team.
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2:36 |
: And I still feel great when they win.
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2:37 |
: Why’d the Mariners cut Sam tui? He said it wasn’t his choice on Twitter. Why not just IL him. Weird timing and a weird move
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2:38 |
: I truly don’t get it. I also think he’s pretty good?
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2:38 |
: Like, maybe not, but also maybe.
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2:38 |
: Why not find out? And why do it now?
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2:39 |
: Scorebooks: I asked Jay that a while ago. Eephus is what the cool kids use and what I went with, but the Bob Carpenter book is worth a look.
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2:39 |
: Nice! Thanks for an answer. I might do some fancy scorecard work of historical games I’ve enjoyed if I’m really short on ideas.
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2:39 |
: Is OOTP the one that Carson played? Is this the same league? with Sawchik?
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2:40 |
: I think that was Diamond Mind? It wasn’t this, in any case. That league sounded really intense, and OOTP is generally more of a play by yourself thing.
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2:40 |
: I did love those Carson/Travis FG Audios, though.
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2:40 |
: I wonder if Travis will write about his team in our baseball hiatus.
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2:40 |
: That’d be fun.
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2:40 | : Happy National Puppy Day, Ben! |
2:41 |
: I meant to say this on an earlier comment of yours.
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2:41 |
: But I made a quarantine margarita that I thought was pretty decent over the weekend. 2 parts tequila, 3 parts lime seltzer water, a splash of lime juice, and enough simple syrup (made with cane sugar) that you get a little color.
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2:41 |
: Highly recommend it.
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2:41 |
: I’ve heard Cardinals territory is spread out so much because of wide-spread radio availability. I don’t know if it was always 1120 AM back in the day, but the radio broadcast spanned many, many states
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2:42 |
: Yeah I’ve heard this as well. I will say that we got KMOX in Oak Ridge, and it’s probably 7 or 8 hours from STL, but I think being the westernmost and southernmost team for quite a while helped at least as much as the broadcast range.
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2:42 |
: Better career: Lux or Hiura? Better 2020( or 2021 at this point)
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2:43 |
: I like Lux more, but I don’t have super high confidence in that.
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2:44 |
: I’m kinda skeptical of Hiura’s extreme power numbers, but he has room to be worse and still be a very valuable player.
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2:45 |
: I think Lux will hit for enough average to make his power play up more than Hiura’s, basically.
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2:45 |
: All the Jackbox games are amazing anyway, but even more so during a quarantine, and I have been playing the crap out of them with friends over the last few days. We’ve been using Discord but any screen sharing software would work!
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2:46 |
: Jackbox is super fun, agreed.
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2:46 |
: I’m going to see if people in our next hangout/board game night have it, but if not I’ll probably download it so we can play it.
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2:47 |
: over under on games played this season?
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2:47 |
: Ugh
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2:47 |
: Not to your question, to be clear.
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2:47 |
: To the situation.
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2:48 |
: Uh, I think it should be around 81.
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2:48 |
: Because there’s no point in setting it at 40 or whatever
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2:48 |
: They wouldn’t play a 40-game season, I don’t think.
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2:48 |
: But I don’t think 81 is the median — I think the median might actually be zero?
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2:48 |
: So you’d need some odds.
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2:49 |
: It sucks that the Olympics are postponed, but I can’t help but smile at the fact that the spokesman guy’s name is literally Dick Pound. Because I’m a child, apparently.
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2:50 |
: That, and then uh
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2:50 |
: Have you seen the cover of his book?
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2:50 |
: Like buddy
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2:50 |
: You’re doing yourself no favors.
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2:50 |
: Should teams with budget restraints be more inclined/desperate to move salary given the situation (eg: Colorado with Desmond or Davis) and should teams with more flexibility be willing to eat salary *if* a desperate team were willing to attach prospects to move a bad contract? These are the kind of questions you can expect when bored fans are drinking on an empty stomach.
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2:51 |
: Eh. Baseball teams aren’t really small businesses, and I’m skeptical that their fixed costs are so high that they’re in significant danger of failing if they don’t cut costs.
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2:51 |
: I’m also not sure how salary will even work this year?
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2:52 |
: I think that changing our valuation of money dramatically during this uncertain time might make sense for a tiny business (my local bakery) or for individuals, but I don’t think it’s optimal for teams.
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2:53 |
https://secure.act-sf.org/gloria-tonistone-streaming/1375 consider checking this out and local SF theater. I’ll be tuning in :).
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2:53 |
: This is pretty cool. I hadn’t heard about this, but I’m in desperate need of some culture.
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2:53 |
: Board games at home can only carry you so far.
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2:53 |
: And it’s a pretty neat way to support a local business as well if you’re in SF.
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2:54 |
: I’ll be honest, I don’t know much about Toni Stone.
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2:54 |
: But a baseball-themed play that you can watch at home that supports good causes?
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2:54 |
: What’s not to love?
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2:54 |
: Also you can pay whatever price you can afford, which is appreciated in these tough times.
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2:55 |
: Who is the AL MVP in 2025? Wander Franco, Jarred Kelenic, Joey Gallo, Gleyber Torres, Joe Adell, Luis Robert?
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2:55 |
: Uh, gimme Trout?
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2:55 |
: Like, Franco is awesome and all.
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2:56 |
: But Mike Trout is great!
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2:56 |
: And he’ll be 33/34 that year, not truly past his peak
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2:56 |
: I don’t know if you guys have seen the MLB the Vault game
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2:57 |
: But it’s pretty fun
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2:57 |
: I might write an article about it at some point, just because look, being a baseball writer with no baseball is not exactly easy.
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2:58 |
: But I took Trout for a lot more things than I probably should have, because he could lap the field by so much in the first half of the decade that the second half doesn’t matter.
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3:00 |
: If you placed bets on teams’ preseason over/under win totals, are those bets just totally off now? Or are the “unders” looking really good?
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3:00 |
: Hm, I think it depends on where you placed them?
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3:01 |
: I will tell you that I had a terrible gambling bad beat when I bet on the 2016 Cubs over
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3:01 |
: Had a ‘All 162 games must be played for action’ rider on the ticket.
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3:01 |
: And they weirdly played only 161 that year
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3:01 |
: Because they won by so much and couldn’t schedule a makeup game.
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3:01 |
: Oof.
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3:02 |
: My guess would be that everything is off.
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3:02 |
: But it will depend heavily on your local regulations and rules.
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3:02 |
: If MLB does not have a 2020 season, are the Reds the biggest loser amongst the 30 teams? Akiyama, Moustakas, Miley, and Castellanos are all at or past their primes, and the contracts given to those four don’t look nearly as good if the Reds don’t get productive 2020 seasons from them.
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3:02 |
: Hm.
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3:02 |
: I don’t think so?
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3:02 |
: Let’s take a look at average ages by team.
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3:03 |
: I would imagine all bets are off at any reputable sportsbook…
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3:03 |
: Haha yes that’s what I was dancing around. I dunno who everyone gambles with.
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3:04 |
: But if you’ve placed it with a real company, the odds are like 100% that it’ll be off.
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3:04 |
: Alright annoyingly the easiest one for me to find right now is 2019.
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3:04 |
: But that would have the Nats, A’s, Astros, Cubs, Graves, and Yankees as the oldest teams
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3:05 |
: Obviously everyone trying to win this year is hurt more by not having a season.
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3:05 |
: Braves*
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3:05 |
: But all of those teams are contenders.
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3:05 |
: The Reds are surely up there, but you know, make the whole league a year older and lots of teams get worse.
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3:05 |
: Are the Braves really SO old you called them the “Graves”?
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3:05 |
: More fraught than usual at the moment!
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3:06 |
: But honestly, I’m surprised to see the Braves there? I think of them as a young team
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3:06 |
: Maybe I’ll weight age by playing time for an article.
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3:06 |
: While we’re on the topic of article ideas
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3:06 |
: I have a question for you, chat.
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3:07 |
: What weird nonsense should I do with our Brewers OOTP team?
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3:07 |
: I don’t think the team is set up well for an opener necessarily.
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3:07 |
: Are Oaxaca switches still legal in OOTP?
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3:08 |
: Posting this largely because I like Oaxaca over Waxahachie as a term.
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3:08 |
: But uh, I actually have no clue given the 3 batter minimum change.
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3:08 |
: I’m going to look into weird in-game stuff, but my sense is that I’m going to have limited in-game control (it would be really tedious for both managers to have that)
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3:08 |
: I wish you could deploy “The Strategy” as discussed on Effectively Wild, but unfortunately I don’t think that’s possible to set up in OOTP simulation
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3:09 |
: Yeah I actually poked around to see if I could set that up. It seems that you cannot 🙁
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3:09 |
: You could do it if you were simming out each game pitch by pitch
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3:09 |
: But, given the way they simulate it I’m not sure you’d get the edge you want?
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3:10 |
: Trying to pick up an effect that’s really hard to measure will probably not be measured in this simulation
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3:11 |
: A moment, please, for me to eat some lunch.
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3:15 |
: three teams that benefit from half year off: Nationals, astros, Yankees
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3:16 |
: Yeah, I think the Yankees are best set up for it.
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3:17 |
: Or rather, would benefit most.
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3:18 |
: Nats and Astros, yeah probably as well.
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3:18 |
: But also every longshot would benefit
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3:18 |
: Because they’d be more likely to spike the playoffs
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3:20 |
: posted this in the comments of your article, but I think we should try out *never* bunting!
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3:21 |
: Interesting. I need to look at the math of pitchers bunting, I’d guess given how badly they hit these days it makes sense
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3:21 |
: But sure we can try it!
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3:21 |
: Assuming there is baseball played this year (please please please please please…), is there anything in particular you want to see MLB experiment with (schedule/format-wise or anything else)? This year is also going to stand out as an extremely weird outlier no matter what, so it seems like a great opportunity to try some things out and maybe strike gold with some wacky idea that actually works!
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3:23 |
: I’d like to see a tournament. I’d like to see experimenting with doubleheaders, and potentially with playing at empty stadiums in spring training sites.
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3:23 |
: Any guess on how MLB will address service time? Coming from an owner who gambled on Nate Pearson and Spencer Howard making an impact this year to start the season…
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3:25 |
: And I believe Craig is writing about it as well.
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3:26 |
: When baseball eventually starts up again, will people still hate the Astros? Or, has that sentiment passed due to the world being turned upside down?
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3:27 |
: I think people still will. Maybe less, because everyone will be so happy baseball is back, but they’re still kinda villainous
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3:28 |
: With your tournament idea, if a team is eliminated in the first round, is their season done? After all this waiting, that team gets only 5ish games? Or am I misunderstanding?
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3:28 |
: Could play consolation brackets as well.
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3:28 |
: But yeah I dunno, needs more planning and design
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3:28 |
: I think that could be okay though?
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3:28 |
: Maybe have a consolation tournament for the first pick in the draft
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3:28 |
: Hey Ben who do you like more, Mitch Keller or Julio Urias?
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3:29 |
: I’ll admit that I’m a sucker for people I’ve listened to.
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3:29 |
: But gimme Keller
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3:29 |
: I thought that his interview with Ben Lindbergh was awesome:
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3:30 |
: Particularly a big fan of him learning what FIP was on Google after seeing it on the Giants’ scoreboard.
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3:30 |
: Like, what a killer anecdote.
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3:30 |
: Personally, rather than a tournament, I would prefer a Premier League-style thing. Just play as many games as you can and the team with the best record is the champion. Or maybe just a World Series between the two best. That way, each team gets as much baseball as possible.
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3:31 |
: I’d be fine with this too. What I really don’t want is the standard playoff structure after a comically short season.
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3:31 |
: I think that would feel a little too like regular for something that is cleraly not regular.
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3:31 |
: can you piggyback starters in OOTP? Would help resolve some of the pitching decision. Like pairing Peralta with an offspeed guy!
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3:32 |
: Hm. You might be able to make it work by getting a little funky; put a super low pitch count limit on the starter, and keep the piggyback player low on the depth chart on non-piggyback days before making him the number one reliever that day.
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3:33 |
: Peralta plus Lauer sounds fun.
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3:33 |
: What’s your grade on the Rams new logo?
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3:35 |
: Like
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3:35 |
: Zero?
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3:35 |
: It’s so bad
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3:35 |
: I *think* you can monkey with the opener/follower settings to get the Peralta-Lauer combo to work?
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3:35 |
: Oh that could work too. Yeah I think it’s doable. It wouldn’t exactly be piggybacking but it could work. New option for next time!
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3:35 |
: Given that the OOTP league is a fangraphs league, I think most of the strategies will end up being fairly similar, so there’s some benefit into zigging where others zag. If we have a by-the-numbers unorthodox strategy we should REALLY lean into it and go all in on it.
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3:36 |
: Yeah, I agree with this. One thing that’s really nice about this league is that Brad asked everyone to manage as if they were that team in real life.
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3:36 |
: So Adley Rutschman isn’t getting traded.
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3:36 |
: But the NL Central is just gonna be a slugfest.
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3:36 |
: Everyone’s going to run right up to payroll red lines, try to game whatever they can, etc.
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3:37 |
: Alright friends, thank you for chatting with me today. I’m gonna call it here, and we can take this up next week. I certainly don’t have anywhere else to be.
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3:37 |
: Thanks again for hanging out today.
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
Ben–i don’t understand how to use the fan graphs projections. I want to get a consensus and balance value of pitchers and hitters available. This seems impossible using ZIPS or Steamer. Help.
Not sure I understand the question exactly, but if you’re looking for a 50/50 blend, our Depth Charts projections take an average of the two projection systems and our own playing time projections.