Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/28/22
2:01 |
: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat.
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2:02 |
: Seems like everyone other than Michael Conforto has signed now, which means it’s time for speculation about team records, fantasy talk, and whatever else people want to talk about. I’m glad to not be talking about free agent landing spots, something I have very little insight into, for a while.
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2:02 |
: Think Sean Murphy’s offensive production will rebound this year closer to the guy he was in 2019/2020? Or is last year more in line of what you’d expect there?
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2:02 |
: Nah, I think he’s much closer to an average hitter than what he showed in those years
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2:03 |
: He has power, but not the kind he was showing off in ’19, and I don’t think he’s going to walk 17% of the time like he did in ’20
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2:03 |
: I think there’s a little room for improvement — I don’t think he’s a true-talent .257 BABIP guy and I bet he’ll walk a little more — but I think our aggregate projection of .228/.314/.428 seems quite fair
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2:04 |
: plus power, average on-base skills, works out to slightly better than league average
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2:04 |
: That’s an incredible player with just average defense at catcher — and he’s one of the best defensive catchers in baseball
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2:04 |
: Nice!
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2:04 |
: I have a decision to make by midnight. I have to keep two of these three. Cole, deGrom and C Burnes. Would you take the risks of deGrom or go the safe route with the other two? Thanks!
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2:04 |
: Ooooooof
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2:04 |
: I kind of think you have to keep Cole, I have the least question marks around him
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2:05 |
: And I think I’d keep dG over Burnes, just because even 130 innings of him is so valuable and Burnes isn’t an innings eater, but that’s really hard
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2:06 |
: Maybe it depends on who your next options are, but presumably your replacement level pitcher is streaming
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2:06 |
: For either
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2:06 |
: hip pointer aside, do you expect a yr2 breakout from vaughn or will lack of opportunities hold him back?
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2:06 |
: I’m not concerned about the hip pointer, but I’m incredibly concerned about the opportunities
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2:07 |
: Jason’s pretty good at this roster projection stuff, and 497 PA if healthy from Vaughn is a little less than I’d hope for
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2:07 |
: And that’s with 427 from Sheets; if Sheets gets more time, it seems to me that it will eat into Vaughn’s kinda one-for-one
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2:08 |
: Really like Vaughn, and even in a blah overall season I was very impressed by his power on contact, but it’s a tough position, particularly if the division is closer than expected. TLR won’t hesitate to bury a young guy forever if he starts slowly
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2:08 |
: Who is your pick for closer in SD?
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2:08 |
: I’m not sure how much of a wild card this would be but Pierce Johnson
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2:09 |
: He’s one of five people in the ‘closer battle’ and I’m more confident in him than any of the other four
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2:09 |
: Is there a future where the Twins DH Buxton to keep him away from the walls?
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2:09 |
: Uh… it’s a very strange future
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2:10 |
: Never say never but so much of his value comes from the fact that he’s one of the best defensive players of his generation
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2:10 |
: I think his bat would have to improve while wall-related injuries continue to pile up
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2:10 |
: Like, could you DH Carlos Correa to protect his back? Absolutely!
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2:10 |
: But should you? No
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2:10 |
: Risk is risk — you can’t just 0 it all out no matter the cost
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2:11 |
: Pujols is back in St. Louis!! How good or awful will this be?
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2:11 |
: How do you feel about Pujols returning to the Cardinals?
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2:11 |
: Does Albert Pujols make the Cardinals favorites to win it all?
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2:11 |
: I’m generally pretty anti-Cardinals, but Pujols, Molina, and Wainwright ending their careers together sounds just about perfect
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2:11 |
: Will Pujols, Molina, and Wainwright walk off into the sunset together following a playoff appearance of some sort?
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2:11 |
: Lots of Pujols questions!
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2:11 |
: As there should be
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2:12 |
: I’m not exactly sure what will transpire, but I’m not a huge fan of the move
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2:12 |
: From a baseball perspective
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2:12 |
: From a what a fun story perspective, only time will tell how I feel about it; I kind of thought his return to Busch with the Angels and hitting a homer was the perfect capper
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2:12 |
: Hate if for Juan Yepez, though…. goodbye, playing time
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2:13 |
: And I’m very high on Yepez
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2:13 |
: How do you anticipate the Rockies using their shiny new DH spot? To me it felt like a perfect match for Charlie Blackmon in 2022, but from reading other things it seems like that’s not the consensus view.
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2:13 |
: I like our projection; Blackmon will be a part-time RF, part-time DH
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2:14 |
: Which is how you can get a CF split between Grichuk and Hilliard (fine with me) but also get Grichuk some PT in right, where he’s probably a better defensive fit
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2:15 |
: Do that, let him sit against some tough lefties, and I think the whole package will work out (Connor Joe or CJ Cron can take the rest of the DH reps)
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2:15 |
: Can you rank all 30 teams based on how likely they are to sign Conforto? Folks love a ranking
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2:15 |
: 1-30. Everyone (tied)
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2:15 |
: I just have no clue at this point
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2:15 |
: And I’m writing three positions of power rankings so I haven’t had the time to rumor-monger
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2:15 |
: Kevin is gone. Our loss, the Twins’ gain. Sadness…
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2:15 |
: This feels like as nice a place as any to talk about this: I’m super happy for Kevin but really sad for us
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2:16 |
: One thing I thought I was not so good at was tempering my (pretty good!) natural inquisitive nature with what would actually work, or what the baseball industry thought of things
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2:17 |
: Kevin is just spectacular to bounce ideas off of; he’s never dismissive but by talking with him I got really good feedback on what made sense, where I was being too theoretical and not thinking enough about the human beings playing, that kind of thing
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2:18 |
: And honestly, he and I just get along really well, which made doing podcasts a blast
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2:18 |
: Not that I don’t get along well with the rest of the staff, but they’re not hosting me for three-hour podcasts 🙂
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2:18 |
: So yeah, congrats Minny, but booooooooooo
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2:18 |
: There’s a lot of hand wringing in Blue Jays land about how right handed the lineup is, but does that really matter when all the righties mash?
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2:18 |
: Yeah I think it’s much ado about little
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2:18 |
: I’d say nothing, but it’s not completely nothing
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2:19 |
: I think it will hurt their effectiveness against relievers because it’s easier to optimally deploy your relievers against them
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2:19 |
: But they’re all great hitters sooooo
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2:19 |
: I’d rather have Vlad vR than whatever rando lefty-hitting 1b platoon partner you could pick up
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2:19 |
: Same goes for Springer, Chapman’s defense doesn’t turn off when a righty pitcher is on the mound for the opponents, etc.
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2:20 |
: People make too much of handedness stuff if it’s stars
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2:20 |
: It’s a valid concern when the hitters are of the league-average variety
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2:20 |
: Kyle Schwarber would be by far the best defender in my rec league right?
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2:21 |
: I don’t know how good your rec league is, but he’d be one of the best for sure
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2:21 |
: I doubt his infield actions are polished, but if you mean outfield only, the guy is pretty fast, normal human division
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2:21 |
: I think the best comparison is that he’s about as fast as the fastest kid at your high school was
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2:21 |
: Maybe a little faster — he’s actually pretty close to major league average sprint speed, surprisngly enough
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2:22 |
: He doesn’t get good jumps, but that’s relative to major leaguers: you, Dan, don’t get good jumps either, though I don’t know you and bet you’re better at softball than me
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2:22 |
: Who ends up having more of an impact this season, Cano or Pujols?
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2:22 |
: Gimme Cano
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2:22 |
: Pujols is a short-side platoon DH who I think was largely signed b/c it’s just so cool
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2:23 |
: There’s a chance Cano is cooked, but that’s true of Pujols ,and I think Cano will have an easier time getting playing time because he can at least legitimately play several positions
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2:23 |
: I mean, how much commemoration can one team even do in a season?
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2:23 |
: June 1: Pujols Bobblehead night
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2:23 |
: June 2: Pujols Brad Lidge Homer Bobble-bat night
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2:24 |
: June 3: Pujols MVP plaque night
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2:24 |
: rinse, repeat
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2:24 |
: They are going to commemorate the CRAP out of the best Cardinal since Ozzie Smith, and I’m cool with that
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2:24 |
: Also, fine, Pujols was better than Ozzie was, but he never signed a baseball saying “Ben, you are my wizard, good luck”, so nuts to him
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2:24 |
: As a survivor of David Ortiz’s last season, I can see the answer to the question of how much commemoration one team can do is, quite a lot.
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2:25 |
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2:25 |
: Do you know anything about how Molina and Wainwright feel about the Pujols signing? Feels like it could be kind of weird to have spent a decade sticking by the franchise working hard to cement your own place in its history, and finally deciding – seemingly with your friend and longtime battery-mate – to hang up the spikes after one last year… only for the team to bring back the superstar who always overshadowed you for his own goodbye tour.
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2:25 |
: I’m confident they asked them**
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2:25 |
: The last time the Blue Jays had a very powerful right-heavy lineup, they won 93 games and the division. They’re fine
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2:25 |
: Yeha, this is basically how I feel
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2:25 |
: Did the As overplay their hand on manaea? Seems like they are asking for a ton
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2:25 |
: I don’t think so, but let me elaborate
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2:25 |
: Yeah, they asked for too much
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2:25 |
: But if they come back at a lower asking price, so what?
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2:25 |
: Teams will still trade for him
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2:26 |
: I like the idea of starting kinda big and then dropping down when that doesn’t work
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2:26 |
: I was about to say, Pujols is the best Cardinal since Stan Musial
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2:26 |
: I think there’s an argument to be made that Bob Gibson fits the bill, for the sheer peak dominance
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2:26 |
: But yes
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2:27 |
: Is Matt Beaty the answer to the Padres’s outfield woes?
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2:27 |
: Nope!
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2:27 |
: But he’ll improve them and he wasn’t doing much on the Dodgers
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2:27 |
: Pretty reasonable trade
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2:28 |
: I love that the Dodgers are willing to trade their blocked role players, even to competitors or other good teams
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2:28 |
: Really smart long-term idea
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2:28 |
: am i wrong to think trevor story might hit, like, 40 HR this year? savant seems to indicate colorado suppresses HR in general and that story’s xHR was 37 (!) last year. that, plus the monster … ?
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2:28 |
: xHR doesn’t actually work for Coors
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2:28 |
: as I understand it, at least
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2:28 |
: because it looks at the distance stuff?
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2:28 |
: I should look that up to be certain
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2:29 |
: but the whole ‘that would be a homer in 29 of 30 parks and the only one it wouldn’t be in is Coors’
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2:29 |
: Is nonsense
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2:29 |
: Coors is huge b/c the ball travels farther
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2:29 |
: I think Story will top 30 but 40 is a lot of dingers
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2:29 |
: I just joined Twitter, and boy are there some bad takes on there. Any recommended follows for baseball nerds?
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2:30 |
: I’m going to give you exactly three, and my huge apologies, because there are plenty of good names out there
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2:30 |
: Cameron Grove, @pitching_bot, is my vote for best public-side analyst
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2:30 |
: Russell Carleton, @pizzacutter4, is Russell Carleton
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2:32 |
: Those are my two favorite, and after that I really enjoy @FoolishBB, though to be honest his Twitter is secondary to his Youtube
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2:32 |
: For me Russell and Cameron are must-follows, and I have them both on notification actually b/c they don’t flood the timeline
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2:32 |
: Tango is an interesting follow but also tweets 20 times a day about hockey, for exmaple
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2:33 |
: Leaving Pitching Ninja off your Twitter follow list is blasphemy
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2:33 |
: I mean, I follow him. He posts 100 things a day, though, it’s too much!
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2:33 |
: On a scale of 1-10, how far off do you think Bellinger is from being a 4th outfielder/role player at this point?
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2:33 |
: The early returns on spring training are not great
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2:34 |
: I don’t think he’s quite there yet, but boy, I’m getting worried
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2:34 |
: I was on the ‘should the Dodgers DFA him’ fence but if he’s the same player again, I think they’d do it
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2:34 |
: Our 115 wRC+ projection seems like a 55th percentile outcome to me
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2:34 |
: Is it possible the Yankees are actually underrated? I don’t like that they gave Donaldson and Rizzo the same AAV as Correa but they’ll still have a great bullpen and they’re better on paper than they were in 2021
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2:35 |
: I think they might be marginally underrated by Yankees fans b/c what a weird offseason
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2:35 |
: But overall, I’m pretty worried about their pitching and outfield depth
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2:36 |
: I think they’ll make the playoffs, and I guess I’d even make them the favorites in the ALE by a hair, but when guys get hurt, it’s going to go quite badly
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2:36 |
: Would it make sense for the Mets to bring back Conforto on a one year make good deal? Canha becomes excellent 4th outfielder (plus, injuries/Mets). And the DH to run folks through, although that’s already a crowd.
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2:36 |
: I don’t think so; I like Canha more than that
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2:37 |
: It would be one thing if they needed to fill PA’s at DH, but that’s definitely not their problem
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2:37 |
: If they move J.D. Davis I guess I’m more into it, but that would be a lot of hoops to jump through
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2:37 |
: with the giants having Cobb, McGee, Casali, and Longo, who else from the 2014 rays is the most realistic add?
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2:38 |
: Did you know that Madison Bumgarner had 1.3 hitting WAR that year?
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2:38 |
: Wow!
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2:38 |
: Uh…. deadline trade for Sergio Romo if things don’t work out in Seattle
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2:38 |
: or Posey gets lured out of retirement, though I don’t see it; he just sold his house in SF
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2:39 |
: Do you think the Twins rotation has sneaky upside?
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2:39 |
: Yeah, because I don’t think people understand variance very well
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2:39 |
: You just don’t know!
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2:39 |
: Joe Ryan could be a 2nd starter level guy
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2:40 |
: Or unplayable
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2:40 |
: Just huge variance in so many of their back-end arms
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2:40 |
: Ankh v rising sun v blood rage?
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2:40 |
: I love Rising Sun
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2:40 |
: Haven’t played Blood Rage
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2:40 |
: Rising Sun just looks SO cool
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2:40 |
: That carries it for me, I have a great time when playing it b/c it’s legitimately a beautiful game
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2:42 |
: appreciate the answer about story! i had no idea about xHR/savant and coors, i’m gonna read up on that more. here’s another if you’ll allow me … how much am i allowed to believe in mitch keller?
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2:42 |
: Someone else asked this earlier and I didn’t have a chance to get to it
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2:42 |
: Um…. I think it’s reasonable to be hopeful about Keller
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2:42 |
: He throws hard now, that’s neat
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2:43 |
: I have a hard time believing he can get back to the command he showed in the low minors, which really limits his upside
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2:43 |
: But I think he can be a league average starter which is nice considering a bumpy career so far
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2:44 |
: Not sure I’m buying him as an ace anymore
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2:44 |
: Story and Baez, same money, same number of years but I think the Red Sox got a Stradivarius and the Tigers got an ukelele.
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2:44 |
: Mmmm… I think that they just have different shortcomings. Baez is a great bet to be a better defender, but I think he’s a worse offensive player
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2:45 |
: I do think that Story is a better fit for Boston
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2:45 |
: In that park, you want more balls in play, and that’s Story
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2:46 |
: Also a lot of the time when Baez connects, it’s just obliterated, and the monster might turn HR’s into doubles
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2:46 |
: Story lifts the ball more, better fit imo
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2:46 |
: The depth charts projections have Seiya Suzuki with a higher OPS this year than Ohtani, Olson, Judge, and Freeman! Do you think that is too aggresive or are you buying the hype?
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2:46 |
: Personally, I tihnk it’s too aggressive
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2:46 |
: I’m not a projection system though, which is great, b/c I’m a human being and that sounds more fun
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2:46 |
: I just have more doubt ballast, as it were
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2:47 |
: I’ll believe it when I see it
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2:47 |
: I feel like Baez was perfect for Detroit as a team trying to exit a rebuild; he’s exciting and fun to watch and a fan favourite, while Story is a bit more boring and doesn’t feel like as exciting an add to the Torkelson/Greene core. Baez in Boston would probably become a lightning rod because of how streaky he is
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2:47 |
: A good non-baseball take on it as well
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2:47 |
: I’m a Cards fan and yet LOVE watching Baez
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2:47 |
: He’s just so fun
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2:48 |
: Perhaps I’m biased by media coverage, but I also agree that the way Boston sports fans *seem* (and a few of the Sox fans I know are like this, but most aren’t), Baez would be a bad fit
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2:48 |
: He’s a lock to have abysmal stretches b/c of the shape of his production
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2:49 |
What are your expectations of him? Is Pujols’ last season with the Dodgers fairly close? |
2:49 |
: Yeah, that’s a great way of thinking about it. Pujols-esque hitting, only against righties instead of lefties, and he can stand at second or third for a few games when the team needs him to
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2:50 |
: That’s more valuable than Pujols was for the Dodgers, particularly b/c the Mets could use a second option at 2b after McNeil
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2:50 |
: Who has a better year. Hilliard, Tellez or Beer. I feel they all come with quetions on playig time. I have them all at a dollar.
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2:51 |
: I’ll take Hilliard for fantasy, I like the speed potential even if it’s mostly just potential and think that with the DH he’ll get enough PT
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2:51 |
: Little worried that Tellez will lose his job to Hiura, and worried that Beer just won’t play enough
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2:52 |
: If teams are going to start using electronic signal calling wouldn’t it make more sense for the pitcher to be the one to pick the pitch? I don’t see any point in the catcher doing it that way just to get shaken off. The pitcher should always know what he wants to throw.
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2:52 |
: I’ve been thinking about this of late. I think that things will probably go that way eventually, but that baseball convention has taught catchers how to decide what to throw, and pitchers to hear and react
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2:53 |
: I like the idea of sticking with that at the major league level, because pitchers aren’t so much deciding what they want to throw and waiting for the catcher to give that sign as having a discussion
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2:53 |
: Having the pitcher do it removes that, unless the catcher can shake HIM off
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2:54 |
: but catchers study scouting reports, and put down the target so that htey can pair pitch with location, and I just kind of think the way it works makes sense
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2:54 |
: i feel like i’ve seen too much hate on the phillies – FG standings actually looks like it loves the moves, and the haters are coming from the “super analytic” place. Seems like they’re overthinking it. This team will be good and I could honestly see a scenario where they win the east. Thoughts?
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2:54 |
: I think that Dan’s article on Castellanos was on point
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2:55 |
: digigng it up now
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2:55 |
: Is he a weird fit? Yes. But they are in a spot where improvement helps so much that fit doesn’t matter much. Good work by them improving, nevermind the fit
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2:57 |
: Universal DH means a bump in runs per game in the NL this season. How significant a bump do you think?
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2:57 |
: The AL has scored about 3% more runs than the NL in non-2020 seasons of late. So… that’s around a tenth of a run per team per game
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2:57 |
: Really enjoy the chats. I have noticed that when you respond to a question, you usually post several times instead of one typed out response. I do the same thing – what does it mean??
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2:58 |
: I think I might be the only person to do that here, I don’t read enough chats to be certain though
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2:58 |
: This is just how I think; bursts of thoughts that are related but distinct
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2:58 |
: I don’t write that way for articles b/c I have time to smooth it all out, but this is stream of consciousness
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2:58 |
: I’m an annoying texter too
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2:59 |
: Not sure it means much about how good my thoughts are… just how my brain is organized
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2:59 |
: looking at bb ref comp scores, it seems freeman is more likely to age well than Olson is likely to improve / maintain his performance. Agree? What’s your opinion of bb ref comp scores?
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2:59 |
: I think they are neat for illustration and say nothing about what will happen to the player after that
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2:59 |
: Or, at least near-nothing
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2:59 |
: They aren’t designed to do that, I think they’re just fun tools. I also expect Freeman to age a bit better than Olson, though, b/c Freeman has already aged more than Olson and remained good!
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2:59 |
: As a Red Sox fan: I think how streakiness is responded to depends a lot on the personality of the player. I remember sitting out in the bleachers for a game during Tony Clark’s one awful year in Boston, and they loved him out there: “you’re due, man.” Jose Offerman, on the other hand. . .
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3:00 |
: Seems reasonable
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3:00 |
: It would be interesting if you wrote your articles in bits and pieces and then Meg had to edit them together into one post.
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3:00 |
: Today in ‘Meg’s nightmares’
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3:00 |
: Fangraphs depth charts show the Yankees have the second best rotation. Elsewhere I’ve seen people rank them 6-16. The 16 seems absurdly low but is the discrepancy another example of you can’t just add up a team war and use that as a projection?
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3:00 |
: 16 is too low, for sure
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3:01 |
: I think it boils down to this: the Yankees had the 6th-best rotation by WAR last year, but I would assume that if you asked Yankees fans they’d guess lower
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3:02 |
: They get more value than most teams do out of the back of the rotation, or at least they did last year
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3:03 |
: But yeah, adding up team WAR and using it as a projection doesn’t handle injury risk very well, and we knew that about last year’s Yankees
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3:03 |
: I believe I even wrote the PPR for that one
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3:04 |
: We projected them 3rd last year, and haha, first line:
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3:04 |
If this one looks optimistic to you, I find it hard to disagree.
: |
3:04 |
: “If this one looks optimistic to you, I find it hard to disagree.”
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3:04 |
: Hi Ben, do you think Oneil Cruz has a chance of making the OD?
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3:04 |
: Ah, what a delight
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3:05 |
: Let me tell you what Ben Cherington said about Cruz
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3:06 |
: Oof, sorry, Derek Shelton, Cherington is only paraphrased in the article I found
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3:06 |
: “There’s still development to be had there. Oneil is goin to have an impact on our club this year at some point. When that is, I don’t think any of us know.”
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3:06 |
: Let me translate for you
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3:07 |
: “After the Super Two cutoff, he should start looking for apartments in Pittsburgh.”
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3:07 |
: Jake Lamb….once again an above average major league hitter??? How do the Dodgers keep doing it?
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3:07 |
: So, I kind of believe it?
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3:08 |
: But as Paul Sporer has pointed out to me, Lamb was pretty good before injuries derailed him
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3:08 |
: And he wasn’t bad the past two years! Just barely played
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3:08 |
: I mean, he wasn’t *good*
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3:08 |
: But he was still hitting the crap out of the ball, which has always been his carrying tool
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3:09 |
: Am I going to give Tapia 450+ PAs like RosterResource says, will my front office give me another bat, or will I play some combination of Kirk/Espinal/Bird more expected?
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3:09 |
: I tend to think that his PT will get shaved down somewhat
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3:10 |
: More the Espinal/Kirk/Bird version, but I could also see them getting a rental outfielder at the deadline
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3:10 |
: Nice to have a lefty, and Tapia is fun to watch, but I don’t think he should be a full-time outfielder for a contending team
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3:10 |
: What’s the most overlooked aspect of defense that brings under the radar value? Cutting off the ball in gaps? Scoops? Tags? Throwing accuracy?
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3:11 |
: Ooh!
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3:11 |
: I don’t think it’s throwing accuracy
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3:11 |
: Those are pretty well accounted for
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3:11 |
: I think that cutting off doubles into singles is VERY hard to account for and also tremendously valuable
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3:12 |
: That’s my bet for most overlooked, because it’s just the hardest to account for. The other ones are difficult too but outliers are less common
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3:12 |
: If you could never watch another baseball game but could still read about it, analyze data, and listen to others talk about it, how interested would you be in following the game? (Assume for the sake of the question you don’t earn a living doing these activities.)
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3:12 |
: Oh, great question!
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3:12 |
: I mean, I’d be a lot less interested
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3:12 |
: Going to and watching baseball games is a blast; I’m watching Jays/Braves right now
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3:13 |
: I don’t need to watch every game to enjoy baseball, and I have fun analyzing it even when I’m not watching, but I think watching it SOMETIMES is a necessary part of the fun
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3:14 |
: Some of my OOTP leaguemates wanted me to write analytical articles about our teams and I just wasn’t into it
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3:14 |
: Doesn’t scratch the same itch
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3:14 |
: Cardinals really going into the season expecting 40yo Wainwright to be an ace?
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3:15 |
: I suppose so, given Flaherty’s injury. They don’t really need him to be an ace, they need him to limit homers and walks, and I think he’ll do that fine, but we have them as the 24th-best rotation in baseball and that’s not great for a contender
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3:15 |
: How many years do the Astros have left in this competitive cycle? They keep losing pieces, and I know Yordan and Tucker are young and great but I can’t help but see a team on the decline
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3:16 |
: Uh… I think they’re gonna be fine. Yordan, Tucker, the young pitching is good, I like Pena, supplement it with some veterans, you could keep this going for quite a while
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3:17 |
: Think there’s any chance Alex Reyes gets innings this year for the Cardinals?
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3:17 |
: Innings? Sure. Probably not many though
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3:17 |
: Alright guys, I’m gonna go edit some positional power rankings for tomorrow. Have a great day, and to whoever asked me what’s for lunch, homemade hummus today but I made some GREAT kung pao chickpeas over the weekend, gonna run that one back soon
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3:17 |
: Have a great week!
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Ben is a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Twitter @_Ben_Clemens.
can you elaborate on the kung pao chickpeas recipe?
Most definitely. It’s a Meyers and Chang recipe, available here:
https://www.splendidtable.org/story/2017/12/04/kung-pao-chickpeas