Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 3/30/20

Ben Clemens: Hey everyone, welcome to the chat. Just going to give the queue a few minutes to fill up while I make some lunch.

Ben Clemens: In the meantime, we have a lot of stuff on the site today. On the most serious possible note, we are asking for all of your help: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-update-were-asking-for-your-he…

Ben Clemens: And on a less serious note, I watched a bunch of baseball to see how close people stand to each other:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/imagining-a-socially-distanced-baseball/

Ben Clemens: Back, and let’s go

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What’s for lunch?

Ben Clemens: Today, some leftovers from last night (beans, plus some veggies, and we added chicken skewers to the mix for some protein).

Ben Clemens: I’ve been appreciating lunch a lot more of late, now that my wife and I are both always home.

Ben Clemens: I used to just either make a lazy sandwich, eat a granola bar, or go get food. Been trying to get a little fancier now

Jason N: After reading the big update, I went online to buy a membership.  Can you ask someone to add an option where I don’t auto-renew?

Ben Clemens: There’s an option in there, I believe.

Ben Clemens: Let me see if I can dig it up really quickly.

Ben Clemens: So:

Ben Clemens: Weirdly I can’t figure out how to paste something into here, because I’m bad at technology

Ben Clemens: But after you sign up, you can go to “Membership” at the top-right dropdown of the page.

Ben Clemens: Then click away and back onto the “Membership” tab

Ben Clemens: I, uh, don’t know why that is, I’ll ask somebody about it.

Ben Clemens: And there’s an auto-renew toggle.

Ben Clemens: It should look like this:

Ben Clemens: https://imgur.com/a/G2buafg

Guest: Do you choose your own favorite team in MLB The Show? Or do you choose a different team?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t played the show, but in OOTP, I tend to pick the Cardinals or a team that’s really wild, like the Brewers (crazy trades!) or the Rays (just crazy in general) or a rebuilding team.

Ben Clemens: I’m totally fine playing as my favorite team, but it does come with a blind spot.

Ben Clemens: Namely, there are players I think are awesome, and I’m kind of emotionally invested in. If the game says they’re bad, I sometimes hang onto them too long anyway

David: Over or under 55% chance of the season being canceled? Also- Syndergaard getting tj surgery puts the Mets behind the Phillies as well as Braves and Nats?

Ben Clemens: Ugh, sadly I’d take the over. Not that I feel good about it.

Ben Clemens: I hope that’s wrong, but it feels like getting back to normal in a reasonable time for the season is going to be really hard.

Ben Clemens: Maybe there’s enough time for a weird abbreviated season or a mega-playoffs or something like that, but they canceled the Olympics (admittedly that’s a much bigger logistical issue).

Ben Clemens: Doesn’t give me a lot of hope that we can get baseball going again by July

yabbadabba: Assuming baseball returns sometime – presumably all players come back less good than otherwise.  What sorts of teams relatively benefit / suffer from that?  Rebuilding teams seem like they would suffer most from lost development time, but veteran teams also suffer from aging.

Ben Clemens: I’ve been trying to work out how I could write about this in a reasonable way.

Ben Clemens: Rather than, you know, just making stuff up wildly, which is my normal method.

Ben Clemens: My sense is that the development time doesn’t hurt as much as aging, and players who aren’t yet in the majors aren’t getting service time (which seems reasonable).

Ben Clemens: So if you had to pick between losing a year of service time for the players you have in the majors and a year of age for your good veterans, or just having your prospects develop more slowly, I think I’d take the latter.

Ben Clemens: If you’re the Orioles, you can’t be happy that your prospects don’t have a minor league season, but if you’re the Astros, Verlander and Greinke got a year older and everyone else got a year closer to free agency. That’s gotta sting.

Ben Clemens: This assumes that baseball doesn’t come back this year; if it does, I think it’s close to a wash.

Goofer: Thoughts on whether Kwang Kim makes the Cards rotation?

Ben Clemens: It’s a tricky rotation to crack, because they have a lot of good-enough arms.

Ben Clemens: But even having said that, I think he’ll make it.

Ben Clemens: I don’t exactly know how they’ll handle Martinez and Wainwright, those guys are in tough situations.

Ben Clemens: Martinez because he’s sooooo valuable as a starter but it’s unclear how stretched out he is after hte hpast two years.

Ben Clemens: Wainwright just because he’s an icon and also way too old.

Ben Clemens: To count on, that is, not too old to pitch.

Ben Clemens: But I’d like to see Kim get a spot even if Mikolas is fully recovered by the time the season starts. I was really encouraged by his velocity and ability to miss bats in the few looks I got of him in ST.

Ben Clemens: Jeff Zimmerman had similar thoughts about him:

Ben Clemens: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/spring-training-quick-looks-kim-lindblom…

Ben Clemens: So long story short, yeah I think Kim should get a rotation spot, but I’m really unsure how anything is going to work this year so I wouldn’t hold my breath.

Ben Clemens: Also I have him on my fantasy team, so I’m hoping for it in that way too.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Easiest way to upgrade your sandwich game is homemade bread. Anyone with flour, yeast, salt, and a Dutch oven or other oven-safe vessel (e.g. cast iron skillet and some aluminum foil for a lid) can have a rustic loaf for tomorrow. Recommend tripling the salt.
https://cooking.nytimes.com/recipes/11376-no-knead-bread
Had today for some cheddar jalapeno grilled cheese, last night toasted in bacon grease to serve soft scrambled eggs.

Ben Clemens: Whoa… I had always considered bread-baking to be really unapproachable.

Ben Clemens: Time to give this a read, because like nearly everyone who is married, we got a Dutch oven as a wedding gift.

Ben Clemens: It’s very shiny! And we almost never use it.

Derek: Playing OOTP a few minutes at a time has been an excellent way to force myself to take mini-breaks while working from home

Derek: (I have like 37 screens on my desk)

Ben Clemens: Jealous. I had four screens at work for the longest time and got really used to it, but my dinky desk at home is a two-screener maximum.

Ben Clemens: I can’t recommend multiple monitors enough; it’s been a life-changing productivity hack.

Ben Clemens: Not just having OOTP up on one (though hey I’m cool with that too!), but if you want to look at data with one and transcribe with the other, or have a reference article you want to keep popping over to… the possibilities are endless.

Ben Clemens: And these days, monitors are cheap enough that it’s no huge outlay.

Ben Clemens: So I guess this is just a long-winded way of saying yeah, this makes sense.

Ben Clemens: Speaking of OOTP, I haven’t broken the news to our brain trust yet, but Josh Lindblom suffered a serious injury over the weekend.

Ben Clemens: He’s out 3-4 months with “shoulder inflammation.”

Ben Clemens: Which I can only assume is going to lead to him missing the season.

Ben Clemens: So our Hader trades are now going to focus on pitching. Eric Lauer is a nice backup to have but it’s not really enough to keep the whole operation humming.

Ben Clemens: 🙁

2-D: Off the top of your head, how far back can you go naming past World Series’ winners in order?

Ben Clemens: Hm, I’ll try this, and you chat people can laugh at me when I inevitably get one wrong.

Ben Clemens: Nats, Red Sox, Astros, Cubs, Royals, Giants, Red Sox, Giants, Cardinals, Giants.

Ben Clemens: That gets us to 2010, and now I’ll have to think slightly harder since I can’t just spam Giants as much.

Ben Clemens: Uh… crap, I always mix the next two up.

Ben Clemens: Yankees, Phillies?

Ben Clemens: I think that’s right

Ben Clemens: Then Red Sox, Cardinals, White Sox, Red Sox, Marlins, Angels, DBacks, Yankees.

Ben Clemens: Yankees, Marlins, Yankees, Braves…. I think I lost it here.

Ben Clemens: Yep

Ben Clemens: Goofed one up there

Ben Clemens: Anyway, not too bad!

Kevin: Article today suggests MLB expansion could be happening sooner than later if season is cancelled and team owners want money now. Article is hypothetical but since expansion looms on ten year horizon, is it possible now?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I think that’s reasonable to assume at this point. I don’t think it’d be a next-year thing even if they decided today they wanted to do it, but I imagine that owners will be looking to get money any way they can given the current situation.

Ben Clemens: Craig wrote an article today about TV deals that I think bears watching:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mlb-isnt-losing-tv-revenues-yet/

Ben Clemens: If some of these RSN contracts start getting invalidated by cable companies, things could change very fast.

Ben Clemens: If that happens and the RSN/team contracts are in the crosshairs, then I think expansion is almost a certainty.

2-D: Aroldis Chapman is setting the bar very high for staying in shape through all of this.

Ben Clemens: He’s always been jacked, but like, WOW.

Ben Clemens: His arms

Ben Clemens: My goodness.

Ben Clemens: Is he just lifting non-stop?

Ben Clemens: https://nypost.com/2020/03/29/yankees-star-aroldis-chapmans-muscles-lo…

Ben Clemens: Love that he’s playing dominos, because that’s exactly how I picture him spending his downtime. But jeez.

Kevin: Hey Ben, thanks for the chat and all of your work here on the site. It’s hard to describe how great my appreciation for the site has been through the years. I just purchased the ad-free membership. I regret that I did not do so earlier

Kevin: Follow up question, if those variables play out and expansion happens, can Manfred get his assumed wish to get rid of leagues and go to NFL style conference setting with 4 team divisions and uniformed hitting rules in time for next CBA?

Ben Clemens: Kevin, thanks so much.

Ben Clemens: This site means a lot to me; I work here now, of course, but it’s been a constant in my life even before I did, and even before I wrote about baseball.

Ben Clemens: It’s been eye-opening and awesome to see the outpouring of support from all corners.

Ben Clemens: This extraordinary time we’re in has revealed a lot about people, and it makes me really happy that it seems many people are just good at heart.

Ben Clemens: Not just when it comes to FanGraphs, but in general.

Ben Clemens: Supporting local businesses, buying pizzas for healthcare workers, stuff like that.

Ben Clemens: It’s a ray of sunshine at a pretty crappy time for the world.

Ben Clemens: As to your second question, and putting my baseball hat back on, yeah I think that’s the endgame here. Tie it to the CBA, give the players two more teams of 26-man rosters as a carrot, and go 32/8

Felix Pie’s Twisted Testical: Thoughts on Posnanski’s “The 100” over at The Athletic? Rankings aside (which are always going to be subjective), I feel   like the project has been beautifully constructed. 7 more to go!

Ben Clemens: I’ve really been enjoying it.

Ben Clemens: I was a little hesitant at the part of the 100 where it was a numbers game.

Ben Clemens: You know, matching players’s spots on the list to their jersey number.

Ben Clemens: Cute, but it wore on me after a while.

Ben Clemens: But Joe’s writing is awesome, and now that we’re getting down to brass tacks, I’m back in.

Ben Clemens: He and Jay Jaffe are my two go-to’s for writing about baseball’s past, and that’s a boom market right now.

Ben Clemens: Fantasy discussion quick hits coming up:

Multiple Offers: OBP Points League. Giolito/k.tucker for V.Robles/gallen/lamet

Multiple Offers: Bierber/Gallen/S Marte for Mookie/Giolito

Ben Clemens: Assuming these are both redrafts, because that makes more sense to me. Hm…. I like the robles/gallen/lamet side more of the first one, but I’m not sure how strongly I believe in that take. I’m high on Kyle Tucker this year but worry that the shortened season might goof with his PT.

Ben Clemens: I like diversifying away from Gio, though. Great pitcher but you have to bake in some risk that he backslides slightly from his great 2019.

Ben Clemens: I think I like the Bieber/Gallen/Marte side of the second too

Ben Clemens: Which just leaves which of the two I’d rather do; and I think I’d rather do the first.

OBP Points Waiver: Any guys you like significantly more and quick reason why? K.newman, L.Urias, J.Smoak, C.Walker, T. Le Stella, C. Hernandez, N. Solak, Yandy Diaz,

Ben Clemens: I like Smoak a lot here. I think his OBP skills are undervalued, and that works well for you.

Ben Clemens: Additionally, Ryan Braun at first…. color me skeptical.

Ben Clemens: It’s entirely possible that they just run with that platoon, and Smoak really is worse against left-handed pitchers despite being a switch hitter.

Ben Clemens: But eh, I just think his production could be pretty good if he earns everyday reps.

Ben Clemens: And he’s not exaclty a high pick.

Derek: The Rays worked their magic with Yandy Diaz last year – seems like he should only get better this year, right?

Ben Clemens: Yandy is interesting too; he really did seem to turn a corner in 2019.

Ben Clemens: His groundball rate is still way too high for my liking, and I’m not sure he can really play third.

Ben Clemens: So those are things that limit his upside for me, but I think he’s about as good of a hitter as Smoak overall.

Ben Clemens: But from a quick look at ADP boards, Smoak is going 100 picks later.

Ben Clemens: I guess I don’t have a great OBP league ADP up, but yeah, that’s my quick take.

T: What day would you say would be most possible for baseball to start or do you think it may be completely cancelled?

Ben Clemens: Hm

Ben Clemens: If they started the season August 1 and ended it November 30, with a neutral site World Series and potentially ALCS/NLCS, that would be three months of baseball?

Ben Clemens: regular season, that is

Ben Clemens: Could they squeeze 81 games into 92 days? Yeah, I think so.

Ben Clemens: Short season,b ut like, sure?

Ben Clemens: So August 1st is one deadline?

Ben Clemens: I need to give this more thought, though.

Ben Clemens: I’d previously suggested a mega-tournament of all 30 teams to ensure that there are at least some playoffs.

Ben Clemens: And you can do that in a shorter timeframe, though it’d play havoc with TV schedules.

SteveL: Hi Ben.  I just jumped on and started reading.  Believe it or not I just this morning made that NY Times No Knead Bread!  It’s terrific, and really easy.

Ben Clemens: Nice! Well next time I go to the store I plan on buying the ingredients, because making bread does sound pretty fun.

Ben Clemens: Always love when I learn something in a chat, which is pretty much every chat.

Ben Clemens: True story, one of the things I was most excited about when I started full-time here is that I would get my own chat.

Ben Clemens: Now, I didn’t expect that chat to mostly take place with all of my readers locked in their homes.

Ben Clemens: But it’s been a blast.

eloquentboot: Ben, you’re an A+ lad. We’re all proud of you, and hope you’re doing well. For an actual question, what kind of teams would you imagine would be hurt most by a shortened season? Some teams that spring to my mind immediately would be teams like the Indians, who have terrific top end talent, but may not have depth to deal with a large amount of doubleheaders.

Ben Clemens: Thank you! I’m doing alright. I think that this shelter in place world is putting a lot of stress on all of us, but I’m fortunate enough to not be in any pressing danger from the effects of this.

Ben Clemens: But not everyone is as fortunate, and small businesses like FG are especially vulnerable, of course.

Ben Clemens: But yeah I hope everyone is doing well in this trying time.

Ben Clemens: Dan Szymborski wrote about this question last week:

Ben Clemens: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/how-much-do-the-playoff-odds-change-in-a-s…

Ben Clemens: Hm two weeks ago actually.

Ben Clemens: The big losers are favorites.

Ben Clemens: That makes a lot of sense to me; I was actually in the process of writing the same article before I saw that Dan was using ZiPS to do it.

Ben Clemens: So teams that were near-playoff-locks are the most affected.

Ben Clemens: The Indians are caught between two effects.

Ben Clemens: One is like you said, yeah, no depth.

Ben Clemens: But on the other hand, the Twins are way better than them I think, and now there’s a better chance of just spiking a hot streak or Minny cold streak.

boobytuesday: Taking a poll: If I draft Luis Severino and DL him all year just so I can keep him for 2021 and beyond, is it: A) a decent strategy, or B) a dick move?

Ben Clemens: Oh I think that’s totally fine.

Ben Clemens: I don’t see it as being different from taking a prospect or something.

Ben Clemens: You get to IL him, which is nice, of course.

Ben Clemens: But it’s just a risk/reward deal; you’re wasting a draft pick in exchange for value next year. Don’t see any reason why that would be uncool.

metsindc: Love the site, bought my membership today.

Ben Clemens: Thank you! We all sincerely appreciate it.

Ben Clemens: It always feels weird asking for financial help, at least to me, and seeing people talk about how much they like the site and how happy they are that it exists beats thath awkward feeling back.

Ben Clemens: Seeing the outpouring of support just makes me very happy, in a way I didn’t completely expect when I first talked to Appelman about all this.

Sammi from a Brooklyn park bench: Has Sale been cut on yet?

Ben Clemens: I’m really shocked that I can’t find the answer to this easily. I’m guessing that he has not, because I don’t think that story would be hard to find.

Ben Clemens: Seems like he lives in Florida in the offseason, and we know they’re still open for TJ business given that Syndergaard just got it done.

Ben Clemens: So your guess as to why it hasn’t been reported is as good as mine. Maybe someone with better Red Sox knowledge has heard more.

Fan: Any MLB the Show ratings that you think are particularly  inaccurate?

Ben Clemens: This is a question for Sporer or Dan; I’m not really a The Show person, though that might be changing soon given how much time I’m spending at home wishing for baseball.

Derek: This site is incredible, and I hope there is soon an option in place that allows us to just outright donate above and beyond purchasing a membership (Jay in his chat seemed to suggest there was at least some chance that this happens). I am extremely fortunate to have a job that allows relatively seamless work-from-home and is in an industry that is actually seeing an increase in business right now, and I would love to be able to contribute (in however small a way) to places like FanGraphs that are really feeling the strain.

Ben Clemens: Hey Derek, thanks a lot. I don’t know any specific details about it, but I guess I’d just say to keep your eyes peeled. This is all a very quickly evolving situation but we have definitely received several versions of this feedback today.

Ben Clemens: Which, again, is so cool.

2-D: Which GM would you trust the most for trading away a superstar, and which GM would you trust the most for acquiring a superstar?

Ben Clemens: Talked a bit about this with some DC friends over the weekend; Mike Rizzo’s record in trades is sneaky good. He’s somewhere on my list. I like Dave Dombrowski’s ability to identify talent, and he’s won a lot of trades in his day, but only on the acquiring end and he’s not employed anymore.

Ben Clemens: I think I’d go with David Stearns among active GM’s for acquiring a star, because I like his aggression around trades and ability to say okay we’re going for it here, and then just go for it.

Ben Clemens: It’s tempting to just say the Rays for trading away a star, but the problem is that they’ve been good at that over several GM regimes.

Ben Clemens: So that’s not really fair, though both GM’s/Presidents of Baseball Ops/whatever  have done well.

Ben Clemens: But I’m going to go with a bit of a dark horse here and say Rick Hahn for best at trading a star away.

Ben Clemens: That White Sox teardown was sad for Sox fans, but Hahn did really well when it comes to getting value without either waiting too long or going too quickly.

Ben Clemens: I think that was a tricky situation to handle, but he managed to get something of real value for all three of Sale, Eaton, and Quintana without flooding the market or letting their service time run down too much.

Ben Clemens: With that, I’m going to call it a chat slightly early today. Thanks a ton to everyone for chatting, and far more than that, thanks so much for your kind words and support. The memberships mean a lot, hearing what you think about us means a lot, and we’re fortunate to have such a great readership in a trying time.

Ben Clemens: I’ll be back same time next week, hopefully with a little less sappiness but the same middling comedy and off-topic buffoonery you’ve come to expect.

Ben Clemens: Have a great day, everyone.