How Much Do the Playoff Odds Change in a Shorter Season?
Will there be a 2020 baseball season? How many games will teams play? What will that mean for the 2020 baseball season? Normally, these would be extremely upsetting questions to contemplate; in the world in which we’re currently living, they’re somewhere around the 75,000th most important quandaries facing us. But as someone qualified to serve as a baseball writer rather than an epidemiologist, they’re also the kinds of questions I can actually seek to answer, and the differences between how baseball will eventually look versus what we’re used to are bigger than you might think. Assuming we have a season, that is; if no games are played, the projections will be 100% accurate.
So how much do the playoff races change in a shorter season? To answer this, I spent the weekend reconfiguring ZiPS so that it wouldn’t assume a 162-game season — an eventuality I had hoped not to have to deal with unless or until there was a strike — allowing me to run playoff probabilities for seasons of any length. Let’s start with the baseline projections, how ZiPS saw the races before the world turned upside down:
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 96 | 66 | — | .593 | 61.3% | 29.2% | 90.5% | 12.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 92 | 70 | 4 | .568 | 32.6% | 44.6% | 77.2% | 7.8% |
| Boston Red Sox | 85 | 77 | 11 | .525 | 6.0% | 25.9% | 31.9% | 2.0% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 89 | 23 | .451 | 0.0% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 57 | 105 | 39 | .352 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Minnesota Twins | 91 | 71 | — | .562 | 60.9% | 14.5% | 75.4% | 8.5% |
| Cleveland Indians | 88 | 74 | 3 | .543 | 30.3% | 20.9% | 51.2% | 4.4% |
| Chicago White Sox | 82 | 80 | 9 | .506 | 8.7% | 10.0% | 18.7% | 1.3% |
| Kansas City Royals | 71 | 91 | 20 | .438 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 63 | 99 | 28 | .389 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Houston Astros | 93 | 69 | — | .574 | 69.2% | 15.0% | 84.1% | 10.7% |
| Oakland A’s | 88 | 74 | 5 | .543 | 25.2% | 27.3% | 52.5% | 4.4% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 82 | 80 | 11 | .506 | 5.3% | 10.3% | 15.6% | 1.0% |
| Texas Rangers | 74 | 88 | 19 | .457 | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 62 | 100 | 31 | .383 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Washington Nationals | 91 | 71 | — | .562 | 42.1% | 29.5% | 71.7% | 6.5% |
| Atlanta Braves | 90 | 72 | 1 | .556 | 34.8% | 31.5% | 66.3% | 5.5% |
| New York Mets | 87 | 75 | 4 | .537 | 18.2% | 28.1% | 46.3% | 3.2% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 82 | 80 | 9 | .506 | 4.8% | 13.4% | 18.2% | 1.0% |
| Miami Marlins | 69 | 93 | 22 | .426 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Chicago Cubs | 85 | 77 | — | .525 | 38.1% | 8.5% | 46.6% | 3.4% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 83 | 79 | 2 | .512 | 23.5% | 7.5% | 31.0% | 2.1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 82 | 80 | 3 | .506 | 20.9% | 7.2% | 28.1% | 1.8% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 82 | 80 | 3 | .506 | 16.9% | 6.2% | 23.1% | 1.5% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 71 | 91 | 14 | .438 | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 101 | 61 | — | .623 | 92.7% | 5.9% | 98.7% | 18.5% |
| San Diego Padres | 87 | 75 | 14 | .537 | 6.0% | 43.4% | 49.4% | 2.7% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 82 | 80 | 19 | .506 | 1.3% | 17.7% | 18.9% | 0.8% |
| Colorado Rockies | 72 | 90 | 29 | .444 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 69 | 93 | 32 | .426 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
There are no COVID-19-based changes in here, just the projection based on if the world had frozen in place two weeks ago and everything happened as we would normally expect. But let’s assume we hit one of the better-case scenarios, get a quickie two weeks of “spring training” in late May, and start the season on June 1. Let’s further assume that, with MLB having a vested interest in playing as many games as possible without killing people, they come to an agreement to play the playoffs in neutral warm-weather cities throughout November, giving the league an extra month to play regular-season games. Under this scenario, the league could theoretically fit somewhere around 140 games in. How do great teams look in a 140-game season instead of a 162-game one? Let’s run the numbers.
Before we do, keep in mind that there’s no adjustment made in the below numbers for, say, James Paxton and Aaron Judge being healthy. We’re just trying to gauge how much things change based only on season length:
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 83 | 57 | — | .593 | 59.8% | 29.0% | 88.8% | 12.0% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 80 | 60 | 3 | .571 | 33.0% | 42.5% | 75.6% | 7.7% |
| Boston Red Sox | 74 | 66 | 9 | .529 | 7.0% | 26.2% | 33.2% | 2.3% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 63 | 77 | 20 | .450 | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 49 | 91 | 34 | .350 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Minnesota Twins | 79 | 61 | — | .564 | 58.9% | 14.9% | 73.9% | 8.4% |
| Cleveland Indians | 76 | 64 | 3 | .543 | 30.9% | 20.5% | 51.4% | 4.7% |
| Chicago White Sox | 71 | 69 | 8 | .507 | 9.9% | 10.7% | 20.7% | 1.5% |
| Kansas City Royals | 61 | 79 | 18 | .436 | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Detroit Tigers | 54 | 86 | 25 | .386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Houston Astros | 81 | 59 | — | .579 | 67.0% | 15.5% | 82.5% | 10.4% |
| Oakland A’s | 76 | 64 | 5 | .543 | 26.1% | 26.2% | 52.3% | 4.6% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 71 | 69 | 10 | .507 | 6.3% | 11.3% | 17.5% | 1.2% |
| Texas Rangers | 64 | 76 | 17 | .457 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.1% |
| Seattle Mariners | 54 | 86 | 27 | .386 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Washington Nationals | 78 | 62 | — | .557 | 41.1% | 28.6% | 69.8% | 6.5% |
| Atlanta Braves | 77 | 63 | 1 | .550 | 34.5% | 30.2% | 64.7% | 5.6% |
| New York Mets | 75 | 65 | 3 | .536 | 18.8% | 27.3% | 46.1% | 3.3% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 71 | 69 | 7 | .507 | 5.6% | 13.9% | 19.5% | 1.1% |
| Miami Marlins | 60 | 80 | 18 | .429 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Chicago Cubs | 74 | 66 | — | .529 | 37.0% | 8.9% | 45.9% | 3.6% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 72 | 68 | 2 | .514 | 23.7% | 8.0% | 31.7% | 2.3% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 71 | 69 | 3 | .507 | 21.2% | 7.7% | 28.9% | 2.1% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 70 | 70 | 4 | .500 | 17.3% | 6.7% | 24.0% | 1.7% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 61 | 79 | 13 | .436 | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 87 | 53 | — | .621 | 90.7% | 7.3% | 98.0% | 16.8% |
| San Diego Padres | 75 | 65 | 12 | .536 | 7.4% | 41.3% | 48.7% | 2.9% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 71 | 69 | 16 | .507 | 1.8% | 18.2% | 20.0% | 1.0% |
| Colorado Rockies | 62 | 78 | 25 | .443 | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| San Francisco Giants | 60 | 80 | 27 | .429 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
A 140-game season isn’t that much different from a 162-game season; we only see the probabilities move by a few percentage points. It does give slightly more hope to teams such as the Marlins and the Giants, lifting them out of rounding-to-zero territory, and forces the Dodgers and Yankees into a few more seasons with Wild Card berths, but there’s nothing ground-breaking here. And I’d wager that if the world’s fortunes were to favor us such that this was the outcome, everyone would be so relieved by the lives saved that they wouldn’t care if their preferred baseball team has a slightly worse chance at winning the World Series.
Now let’s look at a 110-game season. For any living baseball fan, no seasons have been more interrupted than the 1981 and 1994 campaigns, which were truncated in differing ways due to baseball strikes, resulting in two years that saw teams play around 110 games. At that number of games, we start to see the first signs of small sample size-induced parity starting to take hold:
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 65 | 45 | — | .591 | 48.7% | 25.7% | 74.4% | 9.7% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 63 | 47 | 2 | .573 | 34.6% | 29.1% | 63.7% | 7.1% |
| Boston Red Sox | 58 | 52 | 7 | .527 | 14.6% | 24.4% | 39.1% | 3.3% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 50 | 60 | 15 | .455 | 2.1% | 6.9% | 8.9% | 0.5% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 39 | 71 | 26 | .355 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Minnesota Twins | 62 | 48 | — | .564 | 47.5% | 15.9% | 63.4% | 7.3% |
| Cleveland Indians | 59 | 51 | 3 | .536 | 32.2% | 17.7% | 49.9% | 5.0% |
| Chicago White Sox | 56 | 54 | 6 | .509 | 17.0% | 14.5% | 31.5% | 2.6% |
| Kansas City Royals | 48 | 62 | 14 | .436 | 2.8% | 3.7% | 6.5% | 0.4% |
| Detroit Tigers | 43 | 67 | 19 | .391 | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.1% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Houston Astros | 63 | 47 | — | .573 | 51.9% | 17.2% | 69.1% | 8.6% |
| Oakland A’s | 60 | 50 | 3 | .545 | 29.8% | 21.0% | 50.8% | 5.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 55 | 55 | 8 | .500 | 13.6% | 15.3% | 28.9% | 2.3% |
| Texas Rangers | 50 | 60 | 13 | .455 | 4.3% | 7.2% | 11.5% | 0.7% |
| Seattle Mariners | 42 | 68 | 21 | .382 | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Washington Nationals | 62 | 48 | — | .564 | 34.6% | 22.3% | 56.8% | 5.7% |
| Atlanta Braves | 61 | 49 | 1 | .555 | 30.7% | 22.8% | 53.5% | 5.1% |
| New York Mets | 59 | 51 | 3 | .536 | 21.9% | 21.2% | 43.1% | 3.7% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 56 | 54 | 6 | .509 | 11.6% | 15.9% | 27.5% | 2.0% |
| Miami Marlins | 47 | 63 | 15 | .427 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 0.2% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Chicago Cubs | 58 | 52 | — | .527 | 30.5% | 11.4% | 41.9% | 3.7% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 56 | 54 | 2 | .509 | 23.5% | 10.8% | 34.3% | 2.8% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 56 | 54 | 2 | .509 | 22.3% | 10.7% | 33.0% | 2.7% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 55 | 55 | 3 | .500 | 19.7% | 9.9% | 29.6% | 2.3% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 48 | 62 | 10 | .436 | 4.0% | 3.1% | 7.1% | 0.4% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 68 | 42 | — | .618 | 71.3% | 14.6% | 85.9% | 12.6% |
| San Diego Padres | 59 | 51 | 9 | .536 | 17.7% | 27.1% | 44.8% | 3.6% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 56 | 54 | 12 | .509 | 8.7% | 19.0% | 27.7% | 1.9% |
| Colorado Rockies | 49 | 61 | 19 | .445 | 1.5% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 0.3% |
| San Francisco Giants | 47 | 63 | 21 | .427 | 0.8% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 0.2% |
At 110 games, every team except for the Orioles has better than a 1-in-100 shot to make the playoffs. The margins between the Yankees and Rays and the Astros and A’s become almost negligible, close enough that a poorly-timed injury or a big deadline (gosh, when will that be?) acquisition could evaporate what’s left of the difference. At 110 games, only a single team, the Dodgers, maintains a 75% chance of making the playoffs by any means.
Of course, just because a few 110-game seasons are the shortest we can remember, doesn’t mean the season wouldn’t end up being trimmed even further. Next, let’s run the 50% option, the 81-game season:
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 48 | 33 | — | .593 | 41.8% | 21.4% | 63.3% | 8.1% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 46 | 35 | 2 | .568 | 33.1% | 22.7% | 55.8% | 6.5% |
| Boston Red Sox | 43 | 38 | 5 | .531 | 18.9% | 21.3% | 40.1% | 3.8% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 37 | 44 | 11 | .457 | 5.6% | 11.1% | 16.7% | 1.1% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 28 | 53 | 20 | .346 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 0.1% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Minnesota Twins | 46 | 35 | — | .568 | 40.2% | 15.3% | 55.5% | 6.5% |
| Cleveland Indians | 44 | 37 | 2 | .543 | 30.8% | 16.2% | 47.0% | 4.9% |
| Chicago White Sox | 41 | 40 | 5 | .506 | 20.0% | 14.9% | 35.0% | 3.2% |
| Kansas City Royals | 35 | 46 | 11 | .432 | 6.5% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 0.9% |
| Detroit Tigers | 31 | 50 | 15 | .383 | 2.5% | 3.4% | 5.8% | 0.3% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Houston Astros | 47 | 34 | — | .580 | 42.9% | 16.4% | 59.3% | 7.3% |
| Oakland A’s | 44 | 37 | 3 | .543 | 29.5% | 18.2% | 47.6% | 5.0% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 41 | 40 | 6 | .506 | 17.4% | 15.8% | 33.2% | 2.9% |
| Texas Rangers | 37 | 44 | 10 | .457 | 8.3% | 11.0% | 19.3% | 1.4% |
| Seattle Mariners | 31 | 50 | 16 | .383 | 1.8% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 0.3% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Washington Nationals | 45 | 36 | — | .556 | 30.6% | 18.9% | 49.5% | 5.2% |
| Atlanta Braves | 45 | 36 | — | .556 | 28.2% | 19.0% | 47.2% | 4.8% |
| New York Mets | 43 | 38 | 2 | .531 | 22.8% | 18.1% | 40.9% | 3.9% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 41 | 40 | 4 | .506 | 14.7% | 15.9% | 30.7% | 2.5% |
| Miami Marlins | 35 | 46 | 10 | .432 | 3.7% | 6.3% | 10.0% | 0.6% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Chicago Cubs | 43 | 38 | — | .531 | 27.3% | 12.3% | 39.6% | 3.7% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 41 | 40 | 2 | .506 | 22.9% | 11.8% | 34.6% | 3.1% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 41 | 40 | 2 | .506 | 22.2% | 11.8% | 34.0% | 3.0% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 41 | 40 | 2 | .506 | 20.4% | 11.4% | 31.9% | 2.7% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 35 | 46 | 8 | .432 | 7.2% | 6.3% | 13.4% | 0.9% |
| Team | W | L | GB | PCT | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 50 | 31 | — | .617 | 56.0% | 15.4% | 71.4% | 9.8% |
| San Diego Padres | 44 | 37 | 6 | .543 | 21.8% | 20.2% | 42.0% | 3.9% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 41 | 40 | 9 | .506 | 14.0% | 17.2% | 31.1% | 2.5% |
| Colorado Rockies | 36 | 45 | 14 | .444 | 4.9% | 8.9% | 13.8% | 0.8% |
| San Francisco Giants | 35 | 46 | 15 | .432 | 3.4% | 6.5% | 9.9% | 0.6% |
If you like parity, an 81-game season might be your preferred option, though it would likely have a drag on salaries. In a half-season, even the Orioles winning the division is a plausible result. Not a likely result, mind you, but one that isn’t out-of-this-world wacky. The Red Sox project to have a better chance at winning the AL East in an 81-game season without Mookie Betts than in a 162-game season with him.
Here’s one last table in a table-heavy piece: teams ranked by the change in their playoff odds, based solely on having an 81-game season instead of a 162-game one.
| Team | 162 Game Playoff% | 81 Game Playoff% | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Rangers | 1.6% | 19.3% | 17.7% |
| Los Angeles Angels | 15.6% | 33.2% | 17.6% |
| Chicago White Sox | 18.7% | 35.0% | 16.3% |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.9% | 16.7% | 15.8% |
| Kansas City Royals | 0.2% | 14.3% | 14.1% |
| Colorado Rockies | 0.7% | 13.8% | 13.1% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 0.8% | 13.4% | 12.6% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 18.2% | 30.7% | 12.5% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 18.9% | 31.1% | 12.2% |
| Miami Marlins | 0.1% | 10.0% | 9.9% |
| San Francisco Giants | 0.1% | 9.9% | 9.8% |
| Cincinnati Reds | 23.1% | 31.9% | 8.8% |
| Boston Red Sox | 31.9% | 40.1% | 8.2% |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 28.1% | 34.0% | 5.9% |
| Detroit Tigers | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% |
| Seattle Mariners | 0.0% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 31.0% | 34.6% | 3.6% |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.0% | 1.9% | 1.9% |
| Cleveland Indians | 51.2% | 47.0% | -4.2% |
| Oakland A’s | 52.5% | 47.6% | -4.9% |
| New York Mets | 46.3% | 40.9% | -5.4% |
| Chicago Cubs | 46.6% | 39.6% | -7.0% |
| San Diego Padres | 49.4% | 42.0% | -7.4% |
| Atlanta Braves | 66.3% | 47.2% | -19.1% |
| Minnesota Twins | 75.4% | 55.5% | -19.9% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 77.2% | 55.8% | -21.4% |
| Washington Nationals | 71.7% | 49.5% | -22.2% |
| Houston Astros | 84.1% | 59.3% | -24.8% |
| New York Yankees | 90.5% | 63.3% | -27.2% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 98.7% | 71.4% | -27.3% |
Six months from now, society may look very different than we expected it to as recently as this winter. The 2020 baseball season is almost guaranteed to follow suit.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Hi Dan. The third sentence appears to be missing something.
“What will that mean for the Normally, these would be extremely upsetting questions to contemplate”
Baseball truly is the most unpredictable sport. Even the Mariners started last year 13-2. The Giants won more World Series than division titles the last decade. The season needs to be long or else it just cheapens the accomplishments.
Not really. Nobody really talks about how the 1995 Braves, 1981 Dodgers, 1982 49ers, 1999 Spurs, or 2013 Blackhawks titles are any less worthy than those earned in a full year of games.
Not really sure the ’95 Braves example fits with the others here.. they still played 144 games that season.
It helps when the team that wins is objectively one of the best teams, like the Braves or Spurs. Had the Knicks won in ‘99, there would be much more asterisk talk, and not just because lots of people (rightfully) loathe the Knicks.
You are right. I chose my words poorly. All those championships deserve to be celebrated. My point is that baseball needs a long season. Even today’s Orioles would likely take a series or two from the behemoth Yankees. The randomness and unpredictability are part of what makes the sport great.
1982 49ers had a losing record, and missed the playoffs. The1987 team would be a better example of the opposite situation: they dominated in a shortened schedule, but were eliminated early in the postseason
It is a game. I think most people realize the team that wins the world series isn’t usually the best team. Why does that matter?
Ask the fans.
Well as a fan I’ve always thought the actual world series result doesn’t really prove anything
Are those teams whose odds have changed significantly the ones whose players have more variance in their projections? This is a neat exercise, thanks Dan.
Not necessarily. It just accounts for the fact that fewer games means there is a greater chance that “Baseball!” out runs “True Talent”. The KC Royals will, in all likelihood, execute a 3/4 game series sweep of someone really good like the Yankees once or twice in the year. Over 81 games that matters a lot more than over 162
The White Sox, Angels, Phillies, Cardinals, Reds, and DBacks are all 82-80 in the 162 game forecast. Brent’s asking why they all don’t benefit equally from truncating the season to 81 games.
Teams that project to being further back in the 162 game scenario have more to gain with short season variance. Their playoff odds started lower. You’ll note that the teams you mentioned have a fairly wide spread of 162-game playoff probabilities, but in the 81 game season they’ve all clustered in the low 30%s
That does explain the Cardinals and Reds, but still doesn’t explain the difference between WSox/Angels and Phillies/DBacks, all of whom have 18% playoff probability in the 162 but W/A gain 16-17% where P/D gain only 12%. That seems too large for just measurement error.
Probably because of the nature of the leagues – more parity in NL, so the Phillies/DBacks are 10/11 in playoff odds in the NL, but the White Sox/Angels are 8/9 in the AL. Fewer teams ahead means more likely enough of those teams will have bad luck and allow fringe teams a chance.
I think high variance is playing a part yes, especially for the fringey teams like the White Sox and Angels that are top-heavy.
I believe most of the shift is simply due to the fact that streaks have a much greater impact in a shortened season. Like if the Mariners start out 13-2 in an 81 game season, they have much less runway to come back down to earth.
The sortable table at the end of the article I feel illustrates that point, just sort on difference and it is pretty clear that the better the team is on paper, the more negatively their playoff odds are impacted, and vice versa. The so-so teams more or less remain status quo with a few exceptions.
Interesting to see that the top 2 teams in terms of variance between the two simulation are inherently flawed at both extremes. Texas on paper has a solid rotation at a minimum and serious questions about scoring runs while the offense of Angels looks to be great and their rotation offensive.
How much does defensive variability play in this?
Great work as usual Dan!
I saw that the Braves WS odds went up slightly with the 140 game season before going down with further reductions. I wonder what the “ideal” season length for each team would be?
For the Orioles it’s either 0 or 1, depending upon how the tie-breaker rules would work for zero-game season,
I had been wondering about this… great stuff, thanks for sharing.
Imagining a world where the Dodgers traded 4 years of Verdugo for 0 years of Betts
Dan, how will a shorter season that sees less PAs and IP affect the future ZiPs projection model? Or, do you simply plan on taking however many games are played this year, and converting to a 162 game season in regards to future projections?
Now that we are here and this season is unlikely to be resemble past seasons (and very well could get cancelled in October again) I’d love to see them get weird with it. Assuming that no changes continue for 2021 here are some things I’d love to see:
5-6 inning double headers 6x a week
A 16 team tournament
The tournament ran March Madness style with a couple venues
I cannot imagine the season starting before July. If that is the case, there are going to be some crazy statistical outliers. Maybe deGrom will have a .5 era. Franmil Reyes might pop 35 hrs in 80 games. We might have an actual guy close to .400. It is going to be fun if/when it starts.
Can FanGraphs do a, “Why PECOTA Hates Your Team” style projection but, “Here’s How ZiPS says your team wins the 2020 World Series.”
Here’s how the Royals/Tigers/Orioles win the WS in an 81 game season, where half the roster hits their 90% outcome and the ball bounces funny for everyone else.
CONTENT!
Heck, I’ll be happy to do this if Fangraphs won’t.
I wonder how close to completely random the playoff odds for a 10 or 20 game season would be. (Actually i’m surprised Dan didn’t think of/run this, it seems like something he would wonder about too.)
“If you like parity, an 81-game season might be your preferred option, though it would likely have a drag on salaries”
Parity might make the season more interesting, but am I the only one who couldn’t care less about a drag on salaries, or how that would affect one’s enjoyment of parity?
The players, teams, staff and anybody involved in the industry would likely care a lot.
Players, agents, teams and some staff obviously, but why would fans or writers care if players earn slightly less? The inverse would be writers and fans wanting players to earn more, which again I ask why? And how would that affect enjoyment of more parity if they earned a bit less (for less work done, mind you).
For example: multiple division leads are within 2 wins. This is exciting, but I feel guilty because Randal Grichuk is only getting 8 mil instead of 12. Who thinks this way?
Writers would obviously care since many writers cover exclusively sports. It might be tough to do that when all sports get canceled.
As for players, if there isn’t a large incentive to be a great player if there isn’t much incentive to go through the trials of the minors. Most people do consider the bottom line when making a decision.
As a Pirates fan, there’s no denying a shortened season makes this season more alluring. Any success Pirates have will be led by strong relief pitching. Specifically, Pitchers like Kuhl, Santana, and Burdi, who all have live arms and are all returning from significant injury, providing back end depth to pen. Less games equals less innings, which obviously helps Pitchers returning from injury.
Stealing a few wins could make a huge difference for a team like the Pirates in a shortened season.