Ben Clemens FanGraphs Chat – 4/24/23

Ben Clemens: Hey everybody, welcome to the chat.

Ben Clemens: I went with a bold claim article today, so if you want to talk about how Pete Alonso is one of the best pure home run hitters of all time, I’m all ears. I’m also working on something about Wander Franco for tomorrow.

Ben Clemens: Anyway, let’s get started

RTJ: It’s April but, what are you thinking right now if you’re in the Cardinals front office?

Ben Clemens: Why oh why did we aggressively promote Jordan Walker? Why oh why did we forget that major league teams are comprised of both hitters and pitchers?

RTJ: We’re all ready to agree that Max Muncy is back, correct?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

Ben Clemens: It’s early!

Zach: Ben, how much are you buying into Jarred Kelenic right now? Obviously the results are tremendous but the process has also looked so much better ever since spring training. He (probably?) won’t be one of the 20 best players in baseball this year but is it reasonable to think that the All-Star upside is back on the table?

Ben Clemens: For sure. I never really agreed with taking all star upside off the table in the first place. As I noted in my article that’s coming out tomorrow, Jose Ramirez had a 78 wRC+ in his first two seasons (really two-plus, he had an 11-PA cup of coffee also)

Ben Clemens: Sometimes young players are bad, and then later good

Ben Clemens: I’m most interested in Kelenic’s approach, and there are really good signs there, so I’m in

Ben Clemens: Also, him continuing to hit in the minors was a good sign

Who’s Fabio: Hi Ben – my favourite thing about last week was the possum ‘leave behinds’ in the A’s stadium that caused a broadcast team to move.  How did this not make your list?

Ben Clemens: I haven’t really done many meta-baseball things, announcer-y stuff basically

Ben Clemens: Also that one is kinda hard to gif, you really want to hear the announcers telling stories about it, whicih the Mets booth did especially well

TacomaJay: when will Jordan Walker get a shot towards the top or middle of Cardinals lineup?

Ben Clemens: When he’s hitting better than the guys who are ahead of him

Ben Clemens: that seems kinda self-evident, tbh. He has the seventh-best wRC+ among team regulars, and 8th is Nolan Arenado

KBH: Miguel Vargas still a hold?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, although I’m getting a little worried about this year’s power production, so I guess I care a bit more about him in dynasty type formats

Ben Clemens: Hand injuries are notoriously tough on power output

Trey: Looking like Acuña is going to get to 40 SB in his sleep. How likely is he to start slugging enough to be on 40/40 watch?

Ben Clemens: I think it’s likely. The raw power looks to me like it’s all the way back to pre-injury levels

EbenezerBatflip: Hey Ben, Red Sox fan here who is cautiously starting to feel optimistic about this team. I don’t think we’ll win it all, but its a fun team to watch. What do you think so far of Yoshida, Casas and Duran? Will any of them have a big break out this season?

Ben Clemens: Count me in on Duran and Yoshida, but I don’t have a great feeling about Casas

Ben Clemens: It’s still early, it’s just a feeling, all the things I said about Kelenic apply here too

Ben Clemens: But he’s looked a little bit lost in the PA’s I’ve seen this year, I think it might behoove them to let him get his head straight in Triple-A

Ben: How many baseball writers will now refuse to vote for Scherzer for the Hall of Fame since, unlike Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, or Carlos Beltran, he was “suspended for cheating”?

Ben Clemens: Zero, c’mon

Jay: The Cardinals rank 4th in wRC+, 6th in xFIP, 8th in DRS and… 22nd in wins. Are they good? Is something broken? Typical April weirdness?

Ben Clemens: Have you seen their pitching staff?

Planet Dust: Hi Ben, an MLB.com article about Smyly’s curve got me thinking about which pitches see the most divergence between their modeling (e.g. stuff+) values and their effectiveness in terms of how batters actually perform against them. Obviously there are reasons why the two might diverge but curious about the largest gaps.

brash: I know that slow curves and cutters tend not to excel in stuff models, but what is the advantage of throwing these pitch types?

Ben Clemens: These are similar questions, so I thought I’d answer them together. I’m not sure what stuff models are doing with slow curves, but I think it’s fairly clear that they are lumped in with regular curves somehow. Since velocity is one of the key determinants of offspeed performance, well….

Ben Clemens: That said, I think that a lot of the reason behind slow curves fitting into people’s arsenals is that they add a good amount of deception and range to a pitcher’s mix. It’s just another hard thing to keep track of, particularly when it’s less Smyly style and more, say Yu Darvish style

Ben Clemens: Smyly is notoriously difficult for pitch characteristic models to pick up, he throws the two pitches they’re worst at classifying

Ben Clemens: Cutters are another story; one reason that pitchers use them is that they have neutral platoon splits so it gives them additional options in tough situations

Ben Clemens: Another is that they just work? As it turns out, cutters are being thrown at the highest rate in the pitch tracking era this year. I don’t think that’s because teams are dummies and don’t understand Stuff+; I think it’s b/c pitch-level models aren’t capturing everything

JG6: What do you make of Trout’s contact rate dip in recent years?  Is he going to be around a 30% K rate the rest of his career?

Ben Clemens: Maybe not 30% because his eye is so good, but yeah, he’s a true-outcomes guy these days

bosoxforlife: So many questions this week but let me start with will the A’s win less than 40 games?

Ben Clemens: That is very few games!

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll cruise above 40 but struggle to hit 50

Ben Clemens: ewwwwwww

Mike M: What’s your take on the NL West?  ARI and LAD tied for first but only one game over 500, and only LAD has a positive run differential.  Is this is down year for the division?  Too early to say anything confidently?

Ben Clemens: Too early to say anything. And probably too early to write off the Dodgers, like so many people did; they have been playing the b squad so far and making it work

Trey: Why does Kyle Tucker bat 5th for the Astros?

Ben Clemens: The best reason I can come up with is this: Dusty Baker likes to stagger his hitters. He always has. He wants Bregman to bat second and Alvarez to bat third. That means he needs a righty fourth and Tucker fifth

Ben Clemens: Also if you think that’s ridiculous, the slot he’s batted in second-most in his career is sixth

Ben Clemens: and third-most is seventh

Morbo: I know there has been some talk about Tommy Edman hitting right handed against righties. But, Dylan Carlson should probably consider not batting left handed as well. 140wRC+ as a righty vs 89 wRC+ as a lefty on about 1k plate appearances as a lefty. Carlson’s splits are significantly worse than Edman’s

Ben Clemens: Honestly, color me skeptical

Ben Clemens: It’s all down to BABIP, and his righty babip is ludicrous, .392. He runs the same walk rate, same strikeout rate, similar iso

Ben Clemens: Edman’s splits come down to a complete lack of power from the left side

Ben Clemens: I think they are different issues, basically

Portland vs Nashville: Putting a team in Tennessee would cut into the Reds already crowded TV rights. Isn’t it better to shrink the tv markets on the coasts vs the center of the country where the market sizes are smaller. A team in Charlotte or Portland would increase league parity more than Nashville. Is my line of thinking off base?

Ben Clemens: As Michael Baumann pointed out in an award winning article, the south is the most underserved baseball market by a huge margin

Ben Clemens: Also, Tennessee is Braves territory

Ben Clemens: I grew up there, and let me tell you, there were not a lot of people like ‘Oh I follow the Reds religiously’

Nokahoma: What is the deal with Ozuna, is it a BAD month or is he sorta done?

Ben Clemens: Month? Mine at a month

Ben Clemens: Since the start of 2021, he’s hitting .212/.272/.384, 79 wRC+

Ben Clemens: Toast

MoKo: Hello Ben, been enjoying your “5 things” weekly, thanks! The Dodgers although still very talented, seem to be more vulnerable than previous years, specially middle infield with no help in the farm this year and unlucky with Lux and so far Rojas, do you expect them to fill this with some dfa and Mookie or actually trading relative value for an upgrade at the deadline?

Ben Clemens: I think they’re gonna trade for value upgrades

Ben Clemens: The Mookie experiment is wild

Ben Clemens: I can’t believe it’s mostly working, but it cannot be a good long-term plan

Guest: Is the Braves bullpen in trouble, or is Yordan Alvarez just terrifying? Follow up question, is Clutch a “real” stat or a “just for fun” stat? Because Yordan Avarez makes it feel real.

Ben Clemens: No, Yordan is just terrifying

Ben Clemens: Now that Soto had a slow finish to ’22 and a slow start to ’23, I think Alvarez is unquestionably the best lefty on the planet

Ben Clemens: Hitter — Shohei is a more valuable player

Shoeless Joe: take one A’s hitter for Fantasy purposes the rest of the year at any position, who are you taking?

Ben Clemens: Esteury Ruiz by a mile

DBRuns: Ben, I didn’t know you are ex-Citadel! I was in GQS for five years. Left in 2021. Would read Fangraphs whenever sitting in front of my lunch tray, ha.

Ben Clemens: Reading baseball articles at work is a classic part of the finance lifestyle, don’t let anyone tell you otherwise

bruins: Are we at the point where we can believe that Bellinger has turned the corner? K% at 14% and swinging strike rate is 8.2% Not chasing as much and swinging less overall.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I’m not ready to believe the power will return sustainably, but I’m willing to believe that he’s getting back to his lower-strikeout form, which is a huge deal

Twins Wins: Can Twins hitters get it going soon enough to take advantage of the great pitching?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna say yes. The pitching has looked phenomenal and sustainable to my eyes

Morbo: RTJ I’m going to an RTJ concert in ATL in October, super excited! Follow up, if I’m the Cardinals FO I’m really really hoping the team turns it around soon because if they don’t I’m probably not going to be able to go out in public by the end of the summer

Mateo: Why haven’t the Dodgers traded for me yet?

Ben Clemens: Because they traded for Rojas and it didn’t really work, but they were trying to do the same thing

Jeff: Is Kyle Tucker a fringe MVP candidate in your opinion? Continues to mash with GG-level defense. Seems underrated (still)

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah. He’s hurt because there’s a better lefty hitter on his own team, but he’s absolutely in that category

Guest: Discuss Jordan Walker. Yeah, the K’s are atrocious, but do you really think AAA reps would have been helpful? Do you think he stays up?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the reps would have helped; I think the reps would have given the Cardinals more idea of how Walker adjusts to upper-level pitching. I don’t think the idea of not bringing him up to start the year was that he could get a lot better in a short time in AAA, it’s that you could learn more about whether he was ready

Ben Clemens: I think that the major league data has been such that if the Cardinals knew this is how he’d hit, they would not have promoted him to start the year

Ben Clemens: they have plenty of league average outfield bats, way too many in fact. But one thing they absolutely can’t do is play Walker only part-time, that would be very bad for his development, and his development is the most important thing going on in Cards player dev right now

Ben Clemens: I think he’ll stay up but I was on the record saying I don’t think he should have been up to start hte year, and I think things would work out a lot better if he were in Triple-A at the moment

RTJ: Shiver me timbers! Let’s talk about the Pirates, Arrr!

Ben Clemens: Heck yeah

Ben Clemens: The Pirates are really fun right now. I don’t think the pitching staff can keep this up, but I’m kinda in on their bats, and the McCutchen resurgence is amazing

Ben Clemens: I wish Oneil Cruz were there for more fun players, but I’m in on the Bucwagon for now. It’s not a playoff team, but mannnnnn it’s a more fun team to watch than Pittsburgh has had in a while

Guest: Machado’s underlying data (see: Statcast page) looks really bad. More Ks (career high 23%), less BBs (career low 4%), lower hard hit rate (career low 33%)! What the heck? Hold and pray he regresses to his career norms? Or trade for pieces? (ex: Kelenic + RP)

Ben Clemens: Sell sell sell for me

Ben Clemens: Eno Sarris pointed out that his exit velocity has been on a worrisome downward trend

Appa Yip Yip: Why does the AL East have to be the way it is?

Ben Clemens: This is just how the world works

bosoxforlife: The pace of the game is sooooo much better but with the batting average still at an anemic .245 all we are seeing is the same old TTO games but condensed. The shift ban has not added much offense. Does something have to be done to lessen the dominance of velocity like moving the mound back?

Ben Clemens: I don’t think that will happen anytime soon, but yeah, what a shock, banning the shift didn’t do much

Ben Clemens: I think at the very least, baseball is gonna take a year to see what goes on in the fullness of time

Ben Clemens: But Ben Lindbergh’s prediction that they’ll have switched to a wedge-based rule (no one behind second base) by next year is looking good

Chip: With the benefit of ‘hindsight’ (given everyone knew the outfield was a problem) do you think the Yankees should regret not offering money to Benintendi + instead of throwing the bag at Rodon? Starting an infielder with a 30 grade hit tool in CF seems to not be working out for Cashman and co.

Ben Clemens: I mean…. given hindsight, yes

Ben Clemens: Rodon hasn’t played!

Ben Clemens: But short of that, no

Ben Clemens: They should just trade for an outfielder. Doesn’t even have to be a very good one

Ben Clemens: I might be writing about the IKF CF experiment, at least as one of my 5 things this week

Ben Clemens: The guy is so willing to do whatever the team needs him to do to succeed

Ben Clemens: even when the things the team asks him to do are nowhere near his specialty

Rick Manning: Jasson Dominguez…… Bored with the minors, or super streaky and not so good?

Ben Clemens: Wait, it can only be one of these two options?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go with neither, he has 55 PA this year and 15 of those have been walks

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna go with everyone take a deep breath into a paper bag

Morbo: “They should just trade for an outfielder. Doesn’t even have to be a very good one” the Cardinals have a surplus of those and would probably be better off with na injured Rodon than their current pitching staff

Ben Clemens: Yeah, although the last trade for a Cardinals outfielder didn’t fix the problem either

Ben Clemens: Harrison Bader coming back should make things work a bit better, though

Phil: League batting average was .232 in April of last year…so that is actually quite a noticeable improvement yoy.  BAs generally  are lowest in early months due to weather (amongst other things, i imagine).

Ben Clemens: Yeah, like I said, let’s get the whole year in the books

Guy Who Asks The Multiple Choice Question: Which bird do you most enjoy seeing in the wild?

a) Blue Jay
b) Cardinal
c) Oriole

Ben Clemens: It’s actually oriole by a hair, the orange is really striking

Ben Clemens: Then Cardinal, then blue jay, though I’ll be honest, I think I mistake a lot of blue birds for jays

Inaccessible Rail: I just looked at the FG position player WAR rankings and Brandon Nimmo is tied for #1! April? Or is he really this good?

Ben Clemens: April, but c’mon, he’s very good

Ben Clemens: He’s been very good for a while

I know it’s early but: Do you think James Outman is top 3 for NL ROTY?

Ben Clemens: I do

Pumpsie Green: Pearson being called up by the Blue Jays. Does he work himself into leverage situations by year-end?

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I thikn so, I have a lot of belief in his talent

Ozuna from the Braves: Which young bat are you buying into the most—Suwinski, Duran, or Alek Thomas

Ben Clemens: You looking at my fantasy team or something?

Ben Clemens: I have both Suwinski and Duran and I’d have Thomas if I could. I think Duran is the most undervalued, but can it just be a yes for everyone?

Inaccessible Rail: Just read your Alonso story. I feel like the comparison to Sosa & McGwire is a little unfair because there were so many homers hit in that era. How does Alonso’s total compare to his competition vs Sosa/McGwire compared to theirs?

Ben Clemens: Just depends what that means. There are a lot of home runs in baseball these days, and Alonso debuted in the homer-happiest season ever

Ben Clemens: It’d have to be some kind of standard deviation deal, which I haven’t come up with a framework for yet

Morbo: Dylan Carlson for Ryne Nelson. Who says no?

Ben Clemens: In case you’re wondering how Cardinals fans are feeling about Carlson right now….

Oddball Herrera: Gunnar has struggled in such a weird way…I can’t remember a prospect not hitting his weight but running a 20% BB rate over a decent sample. I don’t know if the stratospheric walk rate is reason to be optimistic or just *shrug*

Ben Clemens: I think I’m on team shrug for now

THP: How worried are you about STL’s starting rotation?  Monty looks fine, but everyone else is getting destroyed, hard hit% trends are bad as well…

Ben Clemens: I’m absolutely terrified. It looks awful! Flaherty looks broken, Mikolas is struggling, there’s not much of a backup plan in sight

Billy James: many minor leaguers think Charlotte deserves a team before Nashville. didn’t Charlotte lead AAA in attendance recently? why would minor leaguers want Charlotte over Nashville?

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure, but I could see that too. Charlotte is a bigger city, I think

Ben Clemens: Yup, google confirms. And I love the Charlotte minor league team. I used to see clients in Charlotte occasoinally and I thought it was really cool that they would just go to minor league games after work as a happy hour

Ben Clemens: Not sure that vibe would translate to the major league team but yeah, the Knights are doing a lot of things right

BenB: Thoughts about replacing T. O’Neil with J. Outman or B. Rooker ?
O’Neil feels like he is being used as a 4th OF and isn’t exactly mashing

Ben Clemens: Yeah, chase playing time and replace him with Outman

Andy Dufresne: Mookie looked great at SS. If he’s above average there, shouldn’t LA play him at SS? It increases his value

Ben Clemens: I don’t think so, tbh. I think the most important thing with someone like Mookie is availability. If they’ve decided it’s easier on his body then fine, but keeping him in the lineup is way more important than getting some marginal WAR improvement

bosoxforlife: Speaking of the Twins great pitching, Joe Ryan is really, really good and very underrated.

Ben Clemens: Agree

Doug: A lot of SD fans are upset over the 500 start. Shouldn’t they be encouraged that played 500 through the toughest portion of their schedule and with only Bogaerts hitting?

Ben Clemens: And with Tatis missing most of it

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure whether they should be encouraged or discouraged, but not much of the season is in the books yet, let’s give it a little more time to breathe. The only Padre I’m really worried about so far is Machado, and I’m worried in the maybe he’ll only be very good instead of great kind of way. Soto is edging that way for me but I still believ

Oddball Herrera: Cardinals are wishing the could call backsies on that Johan Oviedo trade right about bow

Ben Clemens: I acdtually don’t think that’s true. Quintana was really key last year

Greg: Did you make any kind of hand motion as you were typing “mine at a month”?

Ben Clemens: Oh yeah, a lifting motion with palm upward

Didace: Pace of Game – Saturday my wife said, “That game seemed to take a long time”. Game time was 3:09. Life is good.

Ben Clemens: Totally agree

Ben Clemens: I really like it. I’m going to a game tomorrow with three friends who are not really baseball fans

Ben Clemens: I think they’re going to be blown away

Morbo: I don’t think I’ve ever seen an Oriole in the wild

Morbo: Blue Jays are super striking. Really all 3 are beautiful birds

Ben Clemens: Alright, let’s do a poll. There are a lot of good opinions in the chat

Ben Clemens:

Sparkle Motion: Why do the Rockies hate their own prospects so much?  Montero only gets 50 ABs before being sent down, Nolan Jones gets the Quad A shuttle treatment despite a 1.228 OPS in the minors. Granted these guys aren’t Top 10 can’t miss prospects but the Rockies aren’t exactly trying to compete either.

Ben Clemens: Hey, they’re letting Tovar go

Ben Clemens: In general, as Dan Szymborski points out over and over, the only thing you can be sure of with the Rockies is that they’ll make confusing decisions

ben: Hi ben! would you flip eovalid for kyle bradish in fantasy? Eovaldi would be much more expensive next year salary wise

Ben Clemens: I would, seems like it’s enough extra future value

Appa Yip Yip: Re: Pearson, how do you feel about getting a leverage reliever from a 1st round pick? Underwhelming, or regular whelming?

Ben Clemens: Whelming, I think

Jorge McIlroy: Will Castillo be an AL Cy Young contender

Ben Clemens: I… what? Yes? Am I missing something here?

Board Game Content: I was able to play some Secret Hitler and Dune Imperium this weekend, both games are a good time.  Have you played anything fun recently?

Ben Clemens: Oh, I have a great one for you. I had some free time yesterday afternoon and went over to my friend’s place to play a two-player game.

Ben Clemens: He actually made this game: https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/193103/ameritocracy

Ben Clemens: It was super fun, and I managed to assemble a combo deck where I parlayed a bunch of $1000-a-plate fundraising dinners into buying some favorable campaign headlinse and winning

Ben Clemens: Loving it

ben: what are your thoughts on kyle muller? he looks iffy and his stuff numbers don’t seem to have much ceiling at all

Ben Clemens: I haven’t done a ton of digging into Muller, but I watched him yesterday because I wanted to watch dG and did not come away impressed

Ben Clemens: Young pitchders are always hard to handicap because they could be a few adjustments away from the big time at any point, but yeah, not buying it just yet

Dan: Will the A’s moving change the profitable and/or attendance of Angles Dodger or Giants?

Ben Clemens: Gonna be good for the Giants

Inaccessible Rail: What really would make sense is for New York to get a third team, but I imagine the Mets and Yankees would never allow that to happen.

Ben Clemens: Yeah, agreed on both counts

Las Vegas AAAA’s: Can someone sue Oakland’s ownership for its blatant unabashed negligence at running this team? They clearly turned the team into crap intentionally to blackmail the city into forking over money for Howard Terminal. Owners are absolute scum

Ben Clemens: I mean, who? won’t happen.

ben: thoughts on moving a. kirk at catcher since he’s not getting the most playing time. Or should i just hold since most catchers have tough consistent playing time.

Ben Clemens: I’m holding, but yeah, catcher playing time is just a pain

Tx: thoughts on the rangers? who needs to go from hot start to consistent really good player to continue this winning?

Ben Clemens: Let’s say Jonah Heim

Ben Clemens: really any few of their bats panning out would do it, but he seems like an obvious choic

Jack Flaherty: Does yesterday start change your opinion!

Ben Clemens: I need more

Trade deadline: Not a lot of expiring all-stars on clear deadline sellers. Will this be a sellers market?

Ben Clemens: I think so? I haven’t done a huge deep dive into it but given how barren the free agency market is gonna be, the same will likely be true for trade deadline rentals

Guest: The Mets so far have maintainced pace with the Braves despite the injury- (and now suspension-)ravaged rotation.  Do you like Mets or Braves in the NL east?

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna stick with my preseason pick of the Mets

Ben Clemens: It’s gonna be a delightful divisional race

Guest: Are the Pirates all just smoke and mirrors?  Or is there legitimate reason for optimism?

Ben Clemens: Optimism that they’re gonna make the playoffs this year? I think that’s smoke and mirrors. Optimism that they’re starting to assemble some fun young players who might coalesce into a core with some outside help? Totally legit

Dan: I was listening to a scifi story where the singularity happened causing human to correct buy banning statistics and computerize pursuit of efficiency. During the explanation of this version of the 2070s it was stated that baseball instantly became fun again.

Ben Clemens: I sometimes struggle with the fact that the relentless pursuit of optimality, which is something that I’m into on general principles, makes the sport worse

Hello: Is E. Ruiz worth rostering in fantasy? Although he’s fast his stat cast is terrible

Ben Clemens: I think it just depends on what you’re looking for. He’s fast and gets on base. That’s it, but those are valuable skills if you’re looking for them

Petey Bienel: The most major league looking thing about the Nationals is ____. Screech and the gray unis don’t count

Ben Clemens: The president’s race

Ben Clemens: player-wise, Meneses might be off to a slow start but he still looks legit to me

Ben Clemens: and yeah, it’s not great

NobleHelium: Building a combo deck and going off sounds fun, but that game theme is not great IMO.

Ben Clemens: A throwback to a simpler time. It came out in 2016 but politics feels verrrrrrrrry different now

Guest: Do you think Scherzer was right to not appeal his suspension because a league official instead of a neutral party would hear it?  Why did MLBPA agree to that procedure if it’s so obvious that a league official will rule against the player?  Seems like Scherzer really just knew he was in the wrong.

Ben Clemens: It’s his right. I’m sure he wasn’t going to have it overturned no matter who heard the appeal

Ben Clemens: I think the optics of doing this are better, that’s for sure

B’ryce Szymbobski: Ben, can you help me sort out(rank) my back half rotation SP riches in a redraft points league?

L.Castillo, Strider, Cortes, Cease, J. Ryan are my studs… No need to worry about them..

but I don’t quite know how to value Gilbert, Ashcraft, D. May, Senga, ERod, Detmers, Oveido, and L. Garcia.

Ben Clemens: I’m gonna take a few fantasy questions next

Ben Clemens: Uh…. I like Ashcraft, Senga, and GIlbert quite a bit. I too have E Rod and don’t know what to do with him. I’m out on Garcia, and not sold on Oviedo. So I guess that leaves May and Detmers, and I’d take May over Detmers

Dan: While playing that game how often did you do things that if you did in real life would be considered campaign fraud? Embarrassing to your family?

Ben Clemens: Oh 0 times!

Ben Clemens: At least for campaign fraud

Ben Clemens: I was using social media experts and door to door campaigning quite a lot, though

20longyears: Jack Suwinski’s preseason ZiPS projection: .243/.321/.427, 1.0 WAR. Projections currently put him at .244/.325/.440 and 2.0 WAR. His actual line at season’s end will be…

Ben Clemens: This is a borderline fantasy question, I think

Ben Clemens: Uh, higher than projections

Ben Clemens: Let’s say .330 OBP and .450 slug

todd: what players have meaningfully changed the perception you had of them coming into the season ?

Ben Clemens: This is definitely a fantasy question. Graham Ashcraft looks like a stud, James Outman is better than the prospect reports, and Wander Franco is a star now

Bruce Live in 2023: Middle Infielder Needed Daily Roto: Luis Garcia-Nats, Oswald
Peraza, G.Perdomo, Brice Turang, Jordan Diaz, Rodolfo Castro

Ben Clemens: Hmmmmm…. I think Perdomo? I’m worried about Peraza’s consistent PT

Ben Clemens: I’d be okay with Turang too

Surprises: Jose Alvarado and Justin Steele could be on that list too

Ben Clemens: Yeah, I thought about putting Alvarado on there. Steele is a good call too

Byron Denniston: Has Gerrit Cole found a new, even more future HoF-y level?

Ben Clemens: I think he’s just on a good streak of not giving up homers

Ben Clemens: But I wrote before the y ear about how he’s somehow underrated, so I already had a very high opinion of him

Matt: Do you think Marsh, Stott, and Bohm production is sustainable for the phillies?

Ben Clemens: hahahahahah no

Ben Clemens: I think they’ll be good

Ben Clemens: I really liked the Marsh trade for the Phillies, felt like I was the only one

Ben Clemens: but yeah, I feel comfortable saying that he’s not going to end the year witha  217 wRC+

Ben Clemens: Stott’s running a .419 BABIP and not walking or hitting for power, I think he is a league average bat

Ben Clemens: Bohm, I’m kinda in on

bosoxforlife: Proof that we are living in parallel universe, Vince Velasquez, I think I remember him being a top prospect years and years ago, has pitched 2 great games in the past 2 weeks.

Ben Clemens: Hey I love Vince!

Ben Clemens: The game where he subbed into left field and then threw a runner out at the plate really sticks in my mind

Ben Clemens: I watched it in the lobby of a hotel in wine country, with my mom and my wife’s mom (both baseball fans)

Jorge McIlroy: Better future, Julio or Kelenic

Ben Clemens: Boy, the questions today are doozies

Ben Clemens: Julio

Chip: Speaking of optimization, I think it’s crazy that the game itself has made all sorts of strides in efficiency, both in it’s play (sabrmetrics) and it’s delivery (pitch clock) and we still have umpires calling strikes 4 inches off the plate. Please tell me that this is going to change soon. I hate the ‘umpires are part of the game’ nonsense. Call the rules.

Ben Clemens: I think that the probablistic nature of the strike zone is a feature, not a bug

Ben Clemens: I don’t think the game would be served by one pitch being called a stirke 100% of the time and one a millimeter away being called a strike 0% of the time

Ben Clemens: The challenge system is the way forward imo

Morgan: Based on the tiny sample size of the season so far, how much do you think Matt Chapman will sign for this offseason?

Ben Clemens: all the money

Ben Clemens: um… a Nimmo-esque deal, let’s say

Trade offer: h2h categories with OBP and K/o included. Manoah and Edman for Bregman. Which side is better

Ben Clemens: I think I’d take Bregman depending on my pitching, I feel like Manoah is good in a way that isn’t always captured by fantasy

bosoxforlife: Nothing has ever shown more clearly the great athletic ability of these players than Velasquez’s performance in LF. Absolutely one of my favorite memories!

A Boy Named Yu: More heart-wrenching end to a potentially historical game: Armando Galarrago/Jim Joyce or Drew Smyly?

Ben Clemens: Oh Gallaraga by far. I don’t even think Smyly would have gotten the runner if he didn’t get trucked

Sanford: Better career when all is said and done, Barry Bonds or Kelenic?

Ben Clemens: GOinna be close

Jeremy: Aaron Nola’s fastball velocity is down a tick, or maybe even two. Should this Phillies fan be worried?

Ben Clemens: No, but worried-adjacent

bosoxforlife: Manoah, 2 awful starts. 2 great starts and 1 meh. What do you amke of it/ The Fangraphs universe is very down on him.

Ben Clemens: I think it’s as simple as his mechanics being out of whack and him fixing htem

Ben Clemens: he stopped bouncing his slider against the Yankees and looked just fine again

Dubon: Trying to just enjoy a fun ride for a likeable player, but I’m wondering if y’all have anything in the works on the sustainability of Dubon’s recent performance? Or perhaps I missed something!

Ben Clemens: I haven’t seen anything, but it wouldn’t shock me, we do a lot of early-season player profiles like that

Chip: Starlin Castro just signed with an Atlantic League team. I was absolutely shocked to find out he’s only 33

Ben Clemens: Wow what?

carlo: With Haniger and Slater likely both coming back this week, what do you think the corresponding moves will be? I would imagine Brett Wisely would be the first to go and Darin Ruf would be second, but with David Villar struggling and J.D. Davis’ improvements at third, has Villar run out of runway?

Ben Clemens: I think that Villar might be Triple-A bound, yeah

Ben Clemens: that said, an injury might make things easier

Wander: What in God’s name can Andres Gimenez do to move up in the order?

Ben Clemens: I truly don’t know. He’s batted seventh most frequently this year

Ben Clemens: what the heck

Ben Clemens: like, I get that the Guardians have a lot of average or better hitters, but do we really need to have Josh Naylor above him?

Ben Affleck: Ben Affleck?

Appa Yip Yip: All Manoah needed to get back on track was to go head to head with Gerrit Cole in Yankee Stadium. He just like us fr.

Ben Clemens: He really has pitched well there

bosoxforlife: I am in my 12th day of recuperation from hip replacement surgery and just took my first steps without a walker!!!!!!! Almost as good as a Ben Clemens chat.

Ben Clemens: Hey congratulations!

Ben Clemens: Both of my parents have had hip replacements and raved about them, so I think you are in for some good days to come

A Boy Named Yu: Starburst Jelly Beans are the GOAT.  Change my mind.

Ben Clemens: Why would you want me to change your mind about this?

Ben Clemens: I mostly agree with you, they’re great

Clen Bemens: H2h categories with AVG, OPS, and QS. should i trade max fried for nico h. and Chris sale? I have middle infield of Neto, r. Castro, and k. Marte. I have musgrove, Greene, m. miller, c. Morton, d. May, m. gore, H. Brown, and tony disco.

Ben Clemens: I wouldn’t, but I really don’t believe in Sale

Jeb: Volpe – exciting so far, no? Super entertaining base running, adequate D, and the plate appearances are getting better. A 100 wrc+ paired with his legs and D has to be a resounding success, even if fans might be underwhelmed, no?

Ben Clemens: Yeah he’s fun. The baserunning in particular has been a blast

chilly: i was really high on vaughn coming into the year and he just hasnt performed.  was i expecting to much and this is who he is or do u think he can still breakout?

Ben Clemens: I’m not sure whether we’re talking Vaughn Grissom or Andrew Vaughn, but eitehr way I’d say hold off on any sweeping conclusions, it’s not even May yet

A Boy Named Yu: I mostly brought up the jelly beans because I’m eating some from Welch’s that, while tasty, constantly remind me that they’re not Starburst.

B’ryce Szymbobski: Skittle ARE BETTER!

Will: I think the only person that has been pro-A’s move is Chris Russo, which kinda speaks volumes. Do you think the fans can somehow force their way to ownership reconsidering?

Ben Clemens: No, haha

Ben Clemens: I think that the team failing to get a deal done in Vegas could

Ben Clemens: But nothing about the way the A’s have conducted themselves in the past few years suggests to me that they’re interested in remaining in Oakland, or particularly care what Oakland fans have to say about it

Ben Clemens: Alright, thanks for chatting with me today, I’m starving so I’m gonna go get some lunch. I’ll talk to you next week, same time same place, so have a great one until then.

Ben Clemens: And oriole won by a mile, more votes than blue jay and cardinal combined, in case you’re curious